Bitcoin Miners Reduce Holdings by 61,000 BTC This Cycle
⚡ What Happened
Bitcoin miners' holdings decreased by approximately 61,000 BTC this cycle, with the three major companies leading the sales. This is against the backdrop of deteriorating miner profitability after the halving and the need to secure funds for business continuity. Supply pressure from miners becomes a short-term price fluctuation factor, drawing attention to market trends and the reorganization of the mining industry.
According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin miners reduced their holdings by approximately 61,000 BTC this cycle, with Riot, Marathon, and Core selling a total of about 19,000 BTC. Historically, after Bitcoin halvings, mining rewards are halved, leading miners to face increased operating costs and reduced revenue, tending to sell their BTC holdings to continue operations. This movement creates supply-side pressure on Bitcoin and acts as a short-term price adjustment factor, so market participants are closely watching miner activity.
🔍 While reports convey the fact of miner sales, the essence lies in the deterioration of profitability due to mining difficulty adjustments and soaring electricity costs after the halving. The reasons major miners are resorting to sales include the need to recoup capital expenditures and pressure for business efficiency, which could accelerate the elimination of small and medium-sized miners and promote oligopolization of the mining industry. While this restructuring could lead to long-term industry health, the short-term risk of oversupply cannot be overlooked.
📰 Source: CoinPost
🧭 Why Is This Moving Now
entities=bitcoin / domain=crypto
🔮 Next Scenarios
🎯 Incentive Map
| Player | True Incentive | Predicted Action |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Miners (Riot, Marathon, Core, etc.) | Business continuity after halving, maximizing profitability, recouping capital expenditures, maintaining market share. | To cope with increased operating costs, sell held BTC to secure funds and promote efficiency investments and M&A. |
| Institutional Investors (BTC Spot ETF operators, etc.) | Growth of client assets, pursuit of stable revenue opportunities through BTC spot ETFs, expansion of market presence. | Absorb a certain level of increased supply from miners, supporting market prices. Continue to accumulate BTC based on long-term demand. |
| Short-term Traders/Individual Investors | Profit generation from short-term price fluctuations, following market trends, portfolio optimization. | React sensitively to miner selling trends and price fluctuations, accelerating buying and selling, thereby increasing market volatility. |
⚠️ Premortem — Conditions for this prediction to fail
- Bitcoin price rises more than expected, dramatically improving miner profitability and significantly reducing selling pressure.
- Miners secure new funding methods (e.g., large-scale stock issuance or loans from strategic investors) to cover operating expenses and capital investments without selling BTC.
- Major miners change their post-halving strategy, deciding to hold onto their BTC rather than short-term sales, betting on long-term price increases.
Hit Condition: HIT if the publicly disclosed total BTC holdings of the three major Bitcoin miners (Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital Holdings, Core Scientific) decrease by another 5,000 BTC or more from the total holdings according to CryptoQuant data at the time of this news article's publication, by December 31, 2026.
Judgement Date: 2026-12-31
