Prediction Tracker | Nowpattern — Public Scores and Resolution Record
Nowpattern's public forecast record. 7493 tracked forecasts; 821 resolved; 784 publicly scored; 37 excluded from public scoring; binary judged accuracy 55.6%; Public Brier Index 52.4%. Provisional score labels and methodology links are included on the page.
Nowpattern Public Track Record — 2026 Snapshot
7493
Total
821
Resolved
784
Publicly Scored
37
Excluded
Binary Judged Accuracy
HIT/MISS sample n=784
436
✅ Accurate
348
❌ Missed
55.6%
Accuracy
Public Brier Index 52.4%
Provisional ScoreBrier Index / n=784 / avg raw Brier 0.2266
37 of 821 resolved predictions are excluded from public scoring
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
The moat KPI is the publicly scored sample, not the total forecast count. Current sample: 784/7493 (10.5%). Next milestone: 150 publicly scored cases. Awaiting verification still stands at 1586 versus 821 resolved.
How to read these scores
Forecasts In Play 5085
⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026Tracking: Will the EU impose a DMA-based fine exceeding €5 billion on a US tech company by December 2026?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 18% confidence(Bull 20% + Base 60%) = YES 18%➡ Verdict: EU issues €5B+ DMA fine on a US tech firm ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisEU vs US Tech War: The Regulatory Shift Caused by the DMA📅 Deadline: Dec 2026Article-backedBear30%Base60%Bull20%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026
Tracking: Will the EU impose a DMA-based fine exceeding €5 billion on a US tech company by December 2026?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 18% confidence
(Bull 20% + Base 60%) = YES 18%
➡ Verdict: EU issues €5B+ DMA fine on a US tech firm ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
EU vs US Tech War: The Regulatory Shift Caused by the DMA📅 Deadline: Dec 2026
Article-backed
Bear30%
Base60%
Bull20%
at publication (2026-02-18)
?? Resolution Criteria: Will the EU impose a DMA-based fine exceeding €5 billion on a US tech company by December 2026?
Bear
30%
Base
60%
Bull
20%
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Dec 2026
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (20%)
Bullish case in the published scenario split (20%).
Base (60%)
Base case in the published scenario split (60%).
Bear (30%)
Bearish case in the published scenario split (30%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: TBDTracking: Will the prediction about 'Japan Crypto ETF Approval by 2028?' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● 基本シナリオ 35% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if a spot Bitcoin or Ethereum ETF (or physically-backed equivalent) is officially listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Osaka Exchange, or PTS, accessible to retail investors. Futures-based ETFs are excluded. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan Crypto ETF Approval by 2028?Tracker-onlyBase35%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: TBD
Tracking: Will the prediction about 'Japan Crypto ETF Approval by 2028?' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● 基本シナリオ 35% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if a spot Bitcoin or Ethereum ETF (or physically-backed equivalent) is officially listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Osaka Exchange, or PTS, accessible to retail investors. Futures-based ETFs are excluded. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan Crypto ETF Approval by 2028?
Tracker-only
Base35%
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: 日本の暗号資産ETF解禁2028年 — 2,200兆円の家計資産が動く経路依存の転換点の予測は的中するか？
Base
35%
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: 2026年12月（例年12月中旬に大綱閣議決定）
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/bitcoin/ethereum / domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:bitcoinentity:ethereumdomain:crypto
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (35%)
A spot ETF (or an ETF linked to the spot price) with Bitcoin or Ethereum as the underlying
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Q2-Q3 2026Tracking: Will the prediction about 'DeepMind's AGI Prototype — The Race to Define Intelligence I' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● 基本シナリオ 11% confidence➡ Verdict: An independent evaluation body (UK AI Safety Institute, METR, ARC Evals, or a peer-reviewed academic study published in Nature, Science, or a top-tier ML venue) explicitly confirms that DeepMind's prototype system meets or exceeds Level 2 ('Competent' general-purpose AI) on DeepMind's 2023 AGI framework, performing at or above the 50th percentile of human performance across the majority of cognitive task categories tested. A YES requires a published, peer-reviewed or official evaluation report with this explicit conclusion. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisDeepMind's AGI Prototype — The Race to Define Intelligence Itself📅 Deadline: Q2-Q3 2026 (3-6 months post-announcement)Article-backedBase11%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Q2-Q3 2026
Tracking: Will the prediction about 'DeepMind's AGI Prototype — The Race to Define Intelligence I' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● 基本シナリオ 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: An independent evaluation body (UK AI Safety Institute, METR, ARC Evals, or a peer-reviewed academic study published in Nature, Science, or a top-tier ML venue) explicitly confirms that DeepMind's prototype system meets or exceeds Level 2 ('Competent' general-purpose AI) on DeepMind's 2023 AGI framework, performing at or above the 50th percentile of human performance across the majority of cognitive task categories tested. A YES requires a published, peer-reviewed or official evaluation report with this explicit conclusion. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
DeepMind's AGI Prototype — The Race to Define Intelligence Itself📅 Deadline: Q2-Q3 2026 (3-6 months post-announcement)
Article-backed
Base11%
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: DeepMind's AGI Prototype — The Race to Define Intelligence Iの予測は的中するか？
Base
11%
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Q2-Q3 2026 (3-6 months post-announcement)
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=google
Referenced knowledge
entity:google
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (11%)
If this prediction is wrong, the most likely reason is that DeepMind's prototype genuinely represents a qualitative leap in AI capabilities that is more significant than the skeptic consensus expects, and the UK AI Safety Institute or academic evaluators confirm this with rigorous benchmarks that demonstrate genuine cross-domain transfer learning at human-competitive levels.
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Q2 2026Tracking: Will the prediction about 'US Stablecoin Regulation — The Architecture of Controlled In' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● 基本シナリオ 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Tether must have completed at least one quarterly independent audit under the new US framework AND submitted monthly reserve attestation reports to the Federal Reserve or OCC for at least 3 consecutive months by December 31, 2026. If Tether formally exits the US market or is the subject of an enforcement action for non-compliance, the answer is NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Stablecoin Regulation — The Architecture of Controlled Innovation📅 Deadline: Q2 2026 (April-June), likely within 90 days of legislation passageArticle-backedBase18%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Q2 2026
Tracking: Will the prediction about 'US Stablecoin Regulation — The Architecture of Controlled In' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● 基本シナリオ 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Tether must have completed at least one quarterly independent audit under the new US framework AND submitted monthly reserve attestation reports to the Federal Reserve or OCC for at least 3 consecutive months by December 31, 2026. If Tether formally exits the US market or is the subject of an enforcement action for non-compliance, the answer is NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Stablecoin Regulation — The Architecture of Controlled Innovation📅 Deadline: Q2 2026 (April-June), likely within 90 days of legislation passage
Article-backed
Base18%
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: US Stablecoin Regulation — The Architecture of Controlled Inの予測は的中するか？
Base
18%
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Q2 2026 (April-June), likely within 90 days of legislation passage
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum / domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumdomain:crypto
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (18%)
If this prediction is wrong, it's most likely because Tether's management calculated that the institutional credibility gains from US compliance outweigh the transparency costs, and fast-tracked compliance using a Big Four auditor already engaged for preliminary work.
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Ongoing riskTracking: Will the prediction about 'Ethereum Staking Yields Hit 10% — The Gravity Well Reshaping' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● 基本シナリオ 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Ethereum's average validator staking APY (as reported by staking tracking services such as Rated Network, StakingRewards, or beaconcha.in) is above 8.0% annualized on 2026-06-30. If the average of these three sources reports above 8.0%, the answer is YES. If 8.0% or below, the answer is NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisEthereum Staking Yields Hit 10% — The Gravity Well Reshaping DeFi Capital Flows📅 Deadline: Ongoing risk — highest probability during periods of high network activity and new protocol upgrades (next major Ethereum upgrade expected Q3-Q4 2026)Article-backedBase18%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Ongoing risk
Tracking: Will the prediction about 'Ethereum Staking Yields Hit 10% — The Gravity Well Reshaping' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● 基本シナリオ 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Ethereum's average validator staking APY (as reported by staking tracking services such as Rated Network, StakingRewards, or beaconcha.in) is above 8.0% annualized on 2026-06-30. If the average of these three sources reports above 8.0%, the answer is YES. If 8.0% or below, the answer is NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Ethereum Staking Yields Hit 10% — The Gravity Well Reshaping DeFi Capital Flows📅 Deadline: Ongoing risk — highest probability during periods of high network activity and new protocol upgrades (next major Ethereum upgrade expected Q3-Q4 2026)
Article-backed
Base18%
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: Ethereum Staking Yields Hit 10% — The Gravity Well Reshapingの予測は的中するか？
Base
18%
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Ongoing risk — highest probability during periods of high network activity and new protocol upgrades (next major Ethereum upgrade expected Q3-Q4 2026)
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum/eu / domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumentity:eudomain:crypto
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (18%)
If our NO prediction is wrong, it likely means the network upgrade created a permanently higher yield floor through MEV redistribution and fee-burn mechanics that we underestimated, or that network activity growth sustained fee-derived yields above our base case assumptions.
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: March-May 2026Tracking: Will the prediction about 'US Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Purge That Reshapes Digit' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● 基本シナリオ 6% confidence⚡ ALPHA +37.1pt (vs market)➡ Verdict: On December 31, 2026, compare the market capitalization of USDC and USDT as reported by CoinGecko at 23:59 UTC. If USDC's market cap exceeds USDT's market cap at that snapshot, the answer is YES. Otherwise, NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins❓ At least 1 frame of live-action in The Amazing Digital Circus Episode 9?🏛 Manifold ↗ ConsensusYES 56.9%56.9% of prediction market capital bets on YES※Snapshot only — check link for live dataUS Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Purge That Reshapes Digital Dollar Dominance📅 Deadline: March-May 2026Article-backedBase6%Manifold57%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: March-May 2026
Tracking: Will the prediction about 'US Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Purge That Reshapes Digit' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● 基本シナリオ 6% confidence⚡ ALPHA +37.1pt (vs market)
➡ Verdict: On December 31, 2026, compare the market capitalization of USDC and USDT as reported by CoinGecko at 23:59 UTC. If USDC's market cap exceeds USDT's market cap at that snapshot, the answer is YES. Otherwise, NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins
❓ At least 1 frame of live-action in The Amazing Digital Circus Episode 9?
🏛 Manifold ↗ ConsensusYES 56.9%
56.9% of prediction market capital bets on YES
※Snapshot only — check link for live data
US Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Purge That Reshapes Digital Dollar Dominance📅 Deadline: March-May 2026
Article-backed
Base6%
Manifold57%
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: US Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Purge That Reshapes Digitの予測は的中するか？
Base
6%
Market (Manifold)
57%
Market YES 56.9%Neck&NeckMarket NO 43.1%
"At least 1 frame of live-action in The Amazing Digital Circus Episode 9?" probability
(real-money bettors)
(real-money bettors)
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: March-May 2026
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
domain:crypto
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (6%)
If this prediction is wrong, it will most likely be because Tether failed to achieve any form of US compliance and suffered a catastrophic bank-run-style exodus, while simultaneously the total stablecoin market expanded dramatically due to institutional adoption flowing exclusively into USDC.
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Q2 2026Tracking: Will the prediction about 'US Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Purge That Reshapes Digit' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● 基本シナリオ 11% confidence⚡ ALPHA +32.1pt (vs market)➡ Verdict: On December 31, 2026, compare the total market capitalization of USDC and USDT as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap. If USDC market cap > USDT market cap at any point on that date, the answer is YES. If USDT market cap >= USDC market cap for the entire day, the answer is NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins❓ At least 1 frame of live-action in The Amazing Digital Circus Episode 9?🏛 Manifold ↗ ConsensusYES 56.9%56.9% of prediction market capital bets on YES※Snapshot only — check link for live dataUS Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Purge That Reshapes Digital Dollar Dominance📅 Deadline: Q2 2026 (expected April-May 2026)Article-backedBase11%Manifold57%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Q2 2026
Tracking: Will the prediction about 'US Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Purge That Reshapes Digit' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● 基本シナリオ 11% confidence⚡ ALPHA +32.1pt (vs market)
➡ Verdict: On December 31, 2026, compare the total market capitalization of USDC and USDT as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap. If USDC market cap > USDT market cap at any point on that date, the answer is YES. If USDT market cap >= USDC market cap for the entire day, the answer is NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins
❓ At least 1 frame of live-action in The Amazing Digital Circus Episode 9?
🏛 Manifold ↗ ConsensusYES 56.9%
56.9% of prediction market capital bets on YES
※Snapshot only — check link for live data
US Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Purge That Reshapes Digital Dollar Dominance📅 Deadline: Q2 2026 (expected April-May 2026)
Article-backed
Base11%
Manifold57%
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: US Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Purge That Reshapes Digitの予測は的中するか？
Base
11%
Market (Manifold)
57%
Market YES 56.9%Neck&NeckMarket NO 43.1%
"At least 1 frame of live-action in The Amazing Digital Circus Episode 9?" probability
(real-money bettors)
(real-money bettors)
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Q2 2026 (expected April-May 2026)
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
domain:crypto
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (11%)
If this prediction is wrong, it will most likely be because a Tether transparency crisis (failed audit, redemption freeze, or reserve shortfall revelation) triggered a rapid, confidence-driven migration from USDT to USDC that extended beyond US-regulated markets into Asia and Latin America — the scenario where fear, not regulation, drives the flip.
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: March-April 2026Tracking: Will the prediction about 'Pentagon Strategy Under Fire — Colby's China-First Doctrine ' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● 基本シナリオ 89% confidence➡ Verdict: The published NDS explicitly addresses force posture requirements for Europe (Russia deterrence) and the Middle East (Iran) as named priorities alongside China, rather than treating them as secondary or residual concerns. Judged by the document's text and accompanying force structure recommendations. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPentagon Strategy Under Fire — Colby's China-First Doctrine Splits the GOP on Global Posture📅 Deadline: March-April 2026 — will signal whether Wicker uses his chairmanship to extract NDS concessions or allows the nomination to proceedArticle-backedBase89%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: March-April 2026
Tracking: Will the prediction about 'Pentagon Strategy Under Fire — Colby's China-First Doctrine ' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● 基本シナリオ 89% confidence
➡ Verdict: The published NDS explicitly addresses force posture requirements for Europe (Russia deterrence) and the Middle East (Iran) as named priorities alongside China, rather than treating them as secondary or residual concerns. Judged by the document's text and accompanying force structure recommendations. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Pentagon Strategy Under Fire — Colby's China-First Doctrine Splits the GOP on Global Posture📅 Deadline: March-April 2026 — will signal whether Wicker uses his chairmanship to extract NDS concessions or allows the nomination to proceed
Article-backed
Base89%
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: Pentagon Strategy Under Fire — Colby's China-First Doctrine の予測は的中するか？
Base
89%
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: March-April 2026 — will signal whether Wicker uses his chairmanship to extract NDS concessions or allows the nomination to proceed
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (89%)
If wrong, it would be because Colby successfully resisted congressional pressure and published a tightly focused China-centric NDS without multi-theater compromises — possible if a major Chinese provocation shifts political consensus toward Pacific prioritization before publication.
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Within 1-3 months of program launchTracking: Will the prediction about 'Trump's Oil Tanker Shield — The Hidden Architecture of Warti' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● 基本シナリオ 82% confidence➡ Verdict: DFC publicly reports or credible media sources confirm that at least $5 billion in political risk insurance coverage has been issued specifically for maritime vessels transiting the Persian Gulf region under the wartime shipping protection program. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump's Oil Tanker Shield — The Hidden Architecture of Wartime Energy Control📅 Deadline: Within 1-3 months of program launchArticle-backedBase82%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Within 1-3 months of program launch
Tracking: Will the prediction about 'Trump's Oil Tanker Shield — The Hidden Architecture of Warti' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● 基本シナリオ 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: DFC publicly reports or credible media sources confirm that at least $5 billion in political risk insurance coverage has been issued specifically for maritime vessels transiting the Persian Gulf region under the wartime shipping protection program. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump's Oil Tanker Shield — The Hidden Architecture of Wartime Energy Control📅 Deadline: Within 1-3 months of program launch
Article-backed
Base82%
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: Trump's Oil Tanker Shield — The Hidden Architecture of Wartiの予測は的中するか？
Base
82%
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Within 1-3 months of program launch
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (82%)
If this prediction fails, the most likely reason is that the Iran conflict de-escalates faster than expected through diplomatic channels, reducing demand for sovereign insurance before the program reaches scale — or that Congressional opposition blocks the DFC's mandate expansion before significant coverage is issued.
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: March-April 2026Tracking: Will the prediction about 'DHS Funding Standoff — How War Abroad Fuels the Immigration ' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● 基本シナリオ 3% confidence➡ Verdict: A full-year DHS appropriations bill (not an omnibus CR or short-term extension) is signed into law by the President before June 30, 2026. A continuing resolution that extends FY2025 levels does NOT count as a full-year appropriations bill. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisDHS Funding Standoff — How War Abroad Fuels the Immigration Stalemate at Home📅 Deadline: March-April 2026 (depending on CR duration)Article-backedBase3%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: March-April 2026
Tracking: Will the prediction about 'DHS Funding Standoff — How War Abroad Fuels the Immigration ' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● 基本シナリオ 3% confidence
➡ Verdict: A full-year DHS appropriations bill (not an omnibus CR or short-term extension) is signed into law by the President before June 30, 2026. A continuing resolution that extends FY2025 levels does NOT count as a full-year appropriations bill. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
DHS Funding Standoff — How War Abroad Fuels the Immigration Stalemate at Home📅 Deadline: March-April 2026 (depending on CR duration)
Article-backed
Base3%
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: DHS Funding Standoff — How War Abroad Fuels the Immigration の予測は的中するか？
Base
3%
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: March-April 2026 (depending on CR duration)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (3%)
A major Iranian attack on U.S. soil or critical infrastructure creates bipartisan urgency that bypasses the immigration policy dispute, or Trump cuts a deal with moderate Democrats that trades ICE restrictions for other Democratic priorities.
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Stablecoin Bill — Regulation Crowns the Incumbents⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Total stablecoin market capitalization as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap exceeds $276 billion USD on any day on or before December 31, 2026. Market cap is measured as the sum of all stablecoin tokens in circulation multiplied by their peg value. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Stablecoin Bill — Regulation Crowns the Incumbents📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Stablecoin Bill — Regulation Crowns the Incumbents
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Total stablecoin market capitalization as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap exceeds $276 billion USD on any day on or before December 31, 2026. Market cap is measured as the sum of all stablecoin tokens in circulation multiplied by their peg value. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Stablecoin Bill — Regulation Crowns the Incumbents📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping De⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: ETH/USD spot price reaches $7,000.00 or higher on Binance, Coinbase, or Kraken at any point between now (2026-03-06) and 2026-06-30 23:59 UTC, as recorded on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical data. A single intraday touch counts as YES. If ETH never reaches $7,000 on any of these three exchanges during this period, the answer is NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisEthereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping DeFi Capital Flows📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping De
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: ETH/USD spot price reaches $7,000.00 or higher on Binance, Coinbase, or Kraken at any point between now (2026-03-06) and 2026-06-30 23:59 UTC, as recorded on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical data. A single intraday touch counts as YES. If ETH never reaches $7,000 on any of these three exchanges during this period, the answer is NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping DeFi Capital Flows📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
Reader View
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: DeepMind's AGI Prototype — The Regulatory Reckoning That Nob⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: At least three of the seven G7 member nations (U.S., UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan) must have enacted into law (not merely proposed or in committee) legislation that explicitly defines and regulates 'artificial general intelligence,' 'AGI-class systems,' or equivalent terminology as a distinct regulatory category, by June 30, 2028. Executive orders, ministerial guidance, and voluntary frameworks do not count — only binding legislation passed by the relevant legislative body. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisDeepMind's AGI Prototype — The Regulatory Reckoning That Nobody Is Ready For📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: DeepMind's AGI Prototype — The Regulatory Reckoning That Nob
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least three of the seven G7 member nations (U.S., UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan) must have enacted into law (not merely proposed or in committee) legislation that explicitly defines and regulates 'artificial general intelligence,' 'AGI-class systems,' or equivalent terminology as a distinct regulatory category, by June 30, 2028. Executive orders, ministerial guidance, and voluntary frameworks do not count — only binding legislation passed by the relevant legislative body. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
DeepMind's AGI Prototype — The Regulatory Reckoning That Nobody Is Ready For📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=google
Referenced knowledge
entity:google
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
Reader View
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Oil Windfall — How Middle East War Fuels Moscow's W⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Russian Ministry of Finance monthly budget execution reports or credible third-party estimates (IEA, EIA, or major financial institutions) show average monthly oil and gas revenue exceeding $20 billion for each of April, May, and June 2026. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Oil Windfall — How Middle East War Fuels Moscow's War Machine📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Oil Windfall — How Middle East War Fuels Moscow's W
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Russian Ministry of Finance monthly budget execution reports or credible third-party estimates (IEA, EIA, or major financial institutions) show average monthly oil and gas revenue exceeding $20 billion for each of April, May, and June 2026. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Oil Windfall — How Middle East War Fuels Moscow's War Machine📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia
Referenced knowledge
entity:russia
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: FATF's Stablecoin Warning — When the World's Financial Cop A⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: A stablecoin-specific bill is passed by both the House and Senate and signed by the President (or enacted through veto override) by December 31, 2026. The bill must establish federal licensing, reserve, or regulatory requirements for stablecoin issuers. Omnibus bills that include stablecoin provisions count. Executive orders alone do not count. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisFATF's Stablecoin Warning — When the World's Financial Cop Admits It's Losing📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: FATF's Stablecoin Warning — When the World's Financial Cop A
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: A stablecoin-specific bill is passed by both the House and Senate and signed by the President (or enacted through veto override) by December 31, 2026. The bill must establish federal licensing, reserve, or regulatory requirements for stablecoin issuers. Omnibus bills that include stablecoin provisions count. Executive orders alone do not count. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
FATF's Stablecoin Warning — When the World's Financial Cop Admits It's Losing📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
Reader View
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Pentagon's China-First Strategy Under Fire — The Multi-Theat⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Colby receives a full Senate confirmation vote and is sworn in as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy by June 30, 2026. Withdrawal of nomination, rejection by the Senate, or indefinite hold counts as NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPentagon's China-First Strategy Under Fire — The Multi-Theater Defense Dilemma📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backedmanifold34%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Pentagon's China-First Strategy Under Fire — The Multi-Theat
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Colby receives a full Senate confirmation vote and is sworn in as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy by June 30, 2026. Withdrawal of nomination, rejection by the Senate, or indefinite hold counts as NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Pentagon's China-First Strategy Under Fire — The Multi-Theater Defense Dilemma📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
manifold34%
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
Market (manifold)
34%
YES 34.0%NO 66.0%
probability
(real-money bettors)
(real-money bettors)
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china
Referenced knowledge
entity:china
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
Reader View
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping De⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: ETH/USD spot price on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap reaches or exceeds $7,000.00 at any point between 2026-03-06 and 2026-07-01 (inclusive). A single intraday wick above $7,000 counts as YES. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisEthereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping DeFi Capital Flows📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping De
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: ETH/USD spot price on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap reaches or exceeds $7,000.00 at any point between 2026-03-06 and 2026-07-01 (inclusive). A single intraday wick above $7,000 counts as YES. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping DeFi Capital Flows📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
Reader View
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral Neither S⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A 'direct military clash' is defined as any incident confirmed by official statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense involving: (1) exchange of weapons fire between US and Chinese military forces, (2) a collision between US and Chinese military aircraft or vessels that results in at least one confirmed casualty, or (3) the seizure or forced boarding of a US or Chinese military vessel or aircraft by the other side's forces. Coast guard encounters without military force involvement do not qualify. Cyberattacks alone do not qualify. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Control📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backedmanifold57%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral Neither S
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A 'direct military clash' is defined as any incident confirmed by official statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense involving: (1) exchange of weapons fire between US and Chinese military forces, (2) a collision between US and Chinese military aircraft or vessels that results in at least one confirmed casualty, or (3) the seizure or forced boarding of a US or Chinese military vessel or aircraft by the other side's forces. Coast guard encounters without military force involvement do not qualify. Cyberattacks alone do not qualify. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Control📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
manifold57%
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
Market (manifold)
57%
YES 57.0%Neck&NeckNO 43.0%
probability
(real-money bettors)
(real-money bettors)
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Risk of US Military Casualties in Mideast — Threshold Shapin⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the US Department of Defense (DoD) officially confirms the death of a US military service member due to hostile action in the Middle East region (CENTCOM area of responsibility). Excludes training accidents, natural deaths, and suicides. Only deaths due to hostile action are counted. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRisk of US Military Casualties in Mideast — Threshold Shaping Trump's Decisions📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Risk of US Military Casualties in Mideast — Threshold Shapin
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the US Department of Defense (DoD) officially confirms the death of a US military service member due to hostile action in the Middle East region (CENTCOM area of responsibility). Excludes training accidents, natural deaths, and suicides. Only deaths due to hostile action are counted. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Risk of US Military Casualties in Mideast — Threshold Shaping Trump's Decisions📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: 米軍の中東被害リスク — トランプの「撤退か拡大か」を決める損害閾値の構造の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
Reader View
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: FM Sikhi: 'Putin Fears Only Trump' — Power Dynamics Revealed⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if a ceasefire agreement signed by both Russia and Ukraine and officially confirmed by the UN, OSCE, or G7 is concluded by September 30, 2026. NO if only "ceasefire framework discussions" or "agreements in principle" occur without a formal signing. A unilateral declaration of ceasefire (without agreement from the other party) is also NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisFM Sikhi: 'Putin Fears Only Trump' — Power Dynamics Revealed by 4th Year of War📅 Deadline: Deadline not setTracker-only▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: FM Sikhi: 'Putin Fears Only Trump' — Power Dynamics Revealed
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if a ceasefire agreement signed by both Russia and Ukraine and officially confirmed by the UN, OSCE, or G7 is concluded by September 30, 2026. NO if only "ceasefire framework discussions" or "agreements in principle" occur without a formal signing. A unilateral declaration of ceasefire (without agreement from the other party) is also NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
FM Sikhi: 'Putin Fears Only Trump' — Power Dynamics Revealed by 4th Year of War📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracker-only
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
Reader View
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Ukraine's Trump Card — Why Kyiv Is Betting Everything on Ame⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A ceasefire is considered signed if both Russia and Ukraine (or their authorized representatives) sign a document explicitly establishing a cessation of hostilities with defined terms, witnessed or endorsed by at least one third-party nation or international organization. Unilateral declarations, informal truces, or localized ceasefires do not count. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUkraine's Trump Card — Why Kyiv Is Betting Everything on American Coercive Leverage📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backedmanifold45%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Ukraine's Trump Card — Why Kyiv Is Betting Everything on Ame
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A ceasefire is considered signed if both Russia and Ukraine (or their authorized representatives) sign a document explicitly establishing a cessation of hostilities with defined terms, witnessed or endorsed by at least one third-party nation or international organization. Unilateral declarations, informal truces, or localized ceasefires do not count. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Ukraine's Trump Card — Why Kyiv Is Betting Everything on American Coercive Leverage📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
manifold45%
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
Market (manifold)
45%
YES 45.0%Neck&NeckNO 55.0%
probability
(real-money bettors)
(real-money bettors)
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
Reader View
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea ICBM Launch Restart — Conflict Spiral After "Dia⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the Ministry of Defense officially announces "impact within Japan's EEZ". NO if it falls outside the EEZ or only passes overhead. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea ICBM Launch Restart — Conflict Spiral After "Dialogue Window" Closes📅 Deadline: Deadline not setTracker-only▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea ICBM Launch Restart — Conflict Spiral After "Dia
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the Ministry of Defense officially announces "impact within Japan's EEZ". NO if it falls outside the EEZ or only passes overhead. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea ICBM Launch Restart — Conflict Spiral After "Dialogue Window" Closes📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracker-only
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/north-korea
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:north-korea
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Pentagon Strategy Under Fire — GOP Alliance Rift Exposes Def⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Elbridge Colby receives a Senate confirmation vote and is confirmed to his nominated Pentagon position (Under Secretary of Defense for Policy or equivalent senior role) by June 30, 2026. A 'YES' requires an actual confirmation vote with majority approval. Withdrawal of nomination, indefinite hold, or committee rejection counts as 'NO'. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPentagon Strategy Under Fire — GOP Alliance Rift Exposes Defense Doctrine Collapse📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Pentagon Strategy Under Fire — GOP Alliance Rift Exposes Def
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Elbridge Colby receives a Senate confirmation vote and is confirmed to his nominated Pentagon position (Under Secretary of Defense for Policy or equivalent senior role) by June 30, 2026. A 'YES' requires an actual confirmation vote with majority approval. Withdrawal of nomination, indefinite hold, or committee rejection counts as 'NO'. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Pentagon Strategy Under Fire — GOP Alliance Rift Exposes Defense Doctrine Collapse📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran Military Operation & Collapse of Int'l Law — Rule-Based⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the UN Security Council adopts a substantive resolution (excluding procedural resolutions) directly related to Iranian military operations by June 30, 2026. NO if vetoed, only a presidential statement, or no resolution submitted. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Military Operation & Collapse of Int'l Law — Rule-Based Order Destroys Itself📅 Deadline: Deadline not setTracker-only▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran Military Operation & Collapse of Int'l Law — Rule-Based
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the UN Security Council adopts a substantive resolution (excluding procedural resolutions) directly related to Iranian military operations by June 30, 2026. NO if vetoed, only a presidential statement, or no resolution submitted. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Military Operation & Collapse of Int'l Law — Rule-Based Order Destroys Itself📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracker-only
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran Crisis and Japan's Middle East Diplomacy: Energy Depend⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if a Japanese cabinet minister of Foreign Minister or higher officially visits Iran by June 30, 2026, confirmed by MOFA press release or major media report. Otherwise, NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Crisis and Japan's Middle East Diplomacy: Energy Dependence Forces a "Structure That Cannot Be Silent"📅 Deadline: Deadline not setTracker-only▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran Crisis and Japan's Middle East Diplomacy: Energy Depend
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if a Japanese cabinet minister of Foreign Minister or higher officially visits Iran by June 30, 2026, confirmed by MOFA press release or major media report. Otherwise, NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Crisis and Japan's Middle East Diplomacy: Energy Dependence Forces a "Structure That Cannot Be Silent"📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracker-only
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's Iran Diplomacy Gambit — Energy Dependence Meets Alli⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if Japan's Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, or a formally designated special envoy visits Tehran or conducts a publicly announced bilateral meeting with Iran's President or Foreign Minister by June 30, 2026. Phone calls alone do not qualify — it must be a physical meeting or formally designated envoy mission reported by official Japanese government sources. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's Iran Diplomacy Gambit — Energy Dependence Meets Alliance Strain📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's Iran Diplomacy Gambit — Energy Dependence Meets Alli
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if Japan's Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, or a formally designated special envoy visits Tehran or conducts a publicly announced bilateral meeting with Iran's President or Foreign Minister by June 30, 2026. Phone calls alone do not qualify — it must be a physical meeting or formally designated envoy mission reported by official Japanese government sources. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's Iran Diplomacy Gambit — Energy Dependence Meets Alliance Strain📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
Reader View
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: November 3, 2026Tracking: Will the prediction about '' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● 楽観シナリオ 78% confidence⚡ ALPHA +32pt (vs market)(Base 16% + Bear 6%) = 楽観シナリオ 78%➡ Verdict: Trump is still serving as President on January 20, 2029, having not been removed by impeachment conviction or 25th Amendment ➔ Nowpattern wins❓ Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?🏛 市場 ↗ ConsensusYES 54%54% of prediction market capital bets on YES※Snapshot only — check link for live dataTrump Term 2 Conclusion — Will He Serve the Full Four Years Without Removal?📅 Deadline: Nov 2026Tracker-onlyBear6%Base16%Bull78%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: November 3, 2026
Tracking: Will the prediction about '' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● 楽観シナリオ 78% confidence⚡ ALPHA +32pt (vs market)
(Base 16% + Bear 6%) = 楽観シナリオ 78%
➡ Verdict: Trump is still serving as President on January 20, 2029, having not been removed by impeachment conviction or 25th Amendment ➔ Nowpattern wins
❓ Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
🏛 市場 ↗ ConsensusYES 54%
54% of prediction market capital bets on YES
※Snapshot only — check link for live data
Trump Term 2 Conclusion — Will He Serve the Full Four Years Without Removal?📅 Deadline: Nov 2026
Tracker-only
Bear6%
Base16%
Bull78%
at publication (2026-03-06)
?? Resolution Criteria: 2026 midterm elections - GOP Senate controlは実現するか？
Bear
6%
Base
16%
Bull
78%
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Nov 2026
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (78%)
Trump completes term ending Jan 2029. Even if impeached by House, Senate conviction fails (GOP 2/3 threshold impossible). Health permits service.
Base (16%)
Serious health issue or catastrophic legal jeopardy prompts resignation discussion, but ultimately completes term with reduced activity.
Bear (6%)
Severe health incapacitation or unprecedented political crisis leads to 25th Amendment invocation. JD Vance becomes president.
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: DeepMind's AGI Claim — The Race Where 'Winning' Means Rewrit⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: At least one peer-reviewed paper published in a top-tier venue (NeurIPS, ICML, Nature, Science) by researchers with no Google affiliation that explicitly concludes DeepMind's system demonstrates genuine cross-domain generalization constituting an AGI milestone. Partial validations with significant caveats do not count. The paper must use the word 'AGI' or 'artificial general intelligence' affirmatively in its conclusions. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisDeepMind's AGI Claim — The Race Where 'Winning' Means Rewriting the Rules📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: DeepMind's AGI Claim — The Race Where 'Winning' Means Rewrit
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least one peer-reviewed paper published in a top-tier venue (NeurIPS, ICML, Nature, Science) by researchers with no Google affiliation that explicitly concludes DeepMind's system demonstrates genuine cross-domain generalization constituting an AGI milestone. Partial validations with significant caveats do not count. The paper must use the word 'AGI' or 'artificial general intelligence' affirmatively in its conclusions. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
DeepMind's AGI Claim — The Race Where 'Winning' Means Rewriting the Rules📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=google
Referenced knowledge
entity:google
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Four Democratic Defections on Iran War Powers — The Israel F⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: On any House floor vote directly related to Iran war powers, military authorization, or constraints on presidential military authority against Iran held between March 7, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 10 or more Democrats vote against the majority Democratic position. Verified via official House roll call records. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisFour Democratic Defections on Iran War Powers — The Israel Fault Line Cracks Open📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Four Democratic Defections on Iran War Powers — The Israel F
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: On any House floor vote directly related to Iran war powers, military authorization, or constraints on presidential military authority against Iran held between March 7, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 10 or more Democrats vote against the majority Democratic position. Verified via official House roll call records. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Four Democratic Defections on Iran War Powers — The Israel Fault Line Cracks Open📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israel
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Colby's China-First Pentagon — The Strategy Gap That Ignores⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: The signed FY2027 NDAA (or continuing resolution covering defense) contains at least one provision mandating specific European or Middle Eastern force posture, capability investment, or strategy reporting requirement that was not included in the Pentagon's NDS as submitted. This can be verified by comparing the NDS text with the final NDAA text. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisColby's China-First Pentagon — The Strategy Gap That Ignores Two Active Wars📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backedmanifold57%▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Colby's China-First Pentagon — The Strategy Gap That Ignores
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: The signed FY2027 NDAA (or continuing resolution covering defense) contains at least one provision mandating specific European or Middle Eastern force posture, capability investment, or strategy reporting requirement that was not included in the Pentagon's NDS as submitted. This can be verified by comparing the NDS text with the final NDAA text. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Colby's China-First Pentagon — The Strategy Gap That Ignores Two Active Wars📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
manifold57%
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
Market (manifold)
57%
YES 57.0%Neck&NeckNO 43.0%
probability
(real-money bettors)
(real-money bettors)
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: EU Crypto Crackdown — The Regulatory Capture Loop That Kills⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the European Commission, ESMA, or EBA publishes an official document (regulation, guideline, or formal communication) that reduces compliance requirements, creates proportionality exceptions, or establishes a regulatory sandbox specifically for stablecoin issuers before July 1, 2027. Informal guidance or member state unilateral actions do not count. NO if no such official softening document is published by that date. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisEU Crypto Crackdown — The Regulatory Capture Loop That Kills Innovation📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: EU Crypto Crackdown — The Regulatory Capture Loop That Kills
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the European Commission, ESMA, or EBA publishes an official document (regulation, guideline, or formal communication) that reduces compliance requirements, creates proportionality exceptions, or establishes a regulatory sandbox specifically for stablecoin issuers before July 1, 2027. Informal guidance or member state unilateral actions do not count. NO if no such official softening document is published by that date. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
EU Crypto Crackdown — The Regulatory Capture Loop That Kills Innovation📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Spratly Islands Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed report from either the US Department of Defense, China's Ministry of National Defense, or two independent major news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) that US and Chinese military forces exchanged weapons fire — including warning shots, CIWS engagement, or any deliberate discharge of weapons directed at or near the other side's military assets — in the South China Sea between March 2026 and June 30, 2026. Verbal warnings, electronic warfare, or water cannon use by coast guard do not count. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSpratly Islands Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Pacific Order📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Spratly Islands Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed report from either the US Department of Defense, China's Ministry of National Defense, or two independent major news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) that US and Chinese military forces exchanged weapons fire — including warning shots, CIWS engagement, or any deliberate discharge of weapons directed at or near the other side's military assets — in the South China Sea between March 2026 and June 30, 2026. Verbal warnings, electronic warfare, or water cannon use by coast guard do not count. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Spratly Islands Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Pacific Order📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan's Missile Shield — The Escalation Spiral That Could R⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if China's PLA conducts a military exercise on or before June 30, 2026 that is characterized by credible defense analysts, official PLA statements, or major international media (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) as simulating or practicing a naval blockade of Taiwan — including exercises that encircle Taiwan or explicitly rehearse sea lane interdiction. NO if no such exercise occurs or if exercises remain within the scope of routine drills without blockade simulation characteristics. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan's Missile Shield — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape Asia📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan's Missile Shield — The Escalation Spiral That Could R
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if China's PLA conducts a military exercise on or before June 30, 2026 that is characterized by credible defense analysts, official PLA statements, or major international media (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) as simulating or practicing a naval blockade of Taiwan — including exercises that encircle Taiwan or explicitly rehearse sea lane interdiction. NO if no such exercise occurs or if exercises remain within the scope of routine drills without blockade simulation characteristics. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan's Missile Shield — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape Asia📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
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⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: ChatGPT-6's Near-Human Reasoning — The Automation of Experti⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: At least one independent benchmarking organization (LMSYS, Stanford HAI, or equivalent academic institution) publishes results showing ChatGPT-6 scoring above 90% on at least two of the three major professional certification exams (bar exam, CPA exam, USMLE). The benchmark must use representative exam questions, not cherry-picked subsets. If no independent benchmark is published by the deadline, the prediction resolves as NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisChatGPT-6's Near-Human Reasoning — The Automation of Expertise Itself📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: ChatGPT-6's Near-Human Reasoning — The Automation of Experti
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least one independent benchmarking organization (LMSYS, Stanford HAI, or equivalent academic institution) publishes results showing ChatGPT-6 scoring above 90% on at least two of the three major professional certification exams (bar exam, CPA exam, USMLE). The benchmark must use representative exam questions, not cherry-picked subsets. If no independent benchmark is published by the deadline, the prediction resolves as NO. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
ChatGPT-6's Near-Human Reasoning — The Automation of Expertise Itself📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
Reader View
How would you vote on this forecast?
Reader distribution will appear here after voting
⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Takaichi's '5-Hour Diplomacy' — Thiel, UAE, and Meltz Reshap⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if an agreement between Palantir Technologies and the Japanese government (Ministry of Defense, Self-Defense Forces, or related agencies) for data analysis platforms, AI integration, or C4ISR-related technical cooperation is officially announced via Palantir press release, official Japanese government announcement, or report from a reliable news outlet. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTakaichi's '5-Hour Diplomacy' — Thiel, UAE, and Meltz Reshape Japan's Strategy📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Takaichi's '5-Hour Diplomacy' — Thiel, UAE, and Meltz Reshap
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if an agreement between Palantir Technologies and the Japanese government (Ministry of Defense, Self-Defense Forces, or related agencies) for data analysis platforms, AI integration, or C4ISR-related technical cooperation is officially announced via Palantir press release, official Japanese government announcement, or report from a reliable news outlet. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Takaichi's '5-Hour Diplomacy' — Thiel, UAE, and Meltz Reshape Japan's Strategy📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: 高市首相の「5時間外交」 — ティール・UAE・メルツが映す日本の戦略的再配置の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
Reader View
How would you vote on this forecast?
Reader distribution will appear here after voting
⏳ In Play⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setTracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Naval Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neith⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the US Department of Defense and China's Ministry of National Defense jointly announce (via official press release, joint statement, or confirmed diplomatic communication) a new bilateral agreement, protocol, or memorandum of understanding specifically addressing naval encounter procedures in the South China Sea by June 7, 2026. Renewal or reaffirmation of existing agreements (such as CUES or the 2014 MOU on notification of major military activities) does not count — the agreement must be new or substantively expanded. NO if no such agreement is announced by the deadline. ➔ Nowpattern wins📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Naval Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford to Lose📅 Deadline: Deadline not setArticle-backed▼
⏳ In Play
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Tracking: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Naval Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neith
⚡ Nowpattern's Verdict
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the US Department of Defense and China's Ministry of National Defense jointly announce (via official press release, joint statement, or confirmed diplomatic communication) a new bilateral agreement, protocol, or memorandum of understanding specifically addressing naval encounter procedures in the South China Sea by June 7, 2026. Renewal or reaffirmation of existing agreements (such as CUES or the 2014 MOU on notification of major military activities) does not count — the agreement must be new or substantively expanded. NO if no such agreement is announced by the deadline. ➔ Nowpattern wins
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Naval Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford to Lose📅 Deadline: Deadline not set
Article-backed
at publication (2026-03-07)
?? Resolution Criteria: の予測は的中するか？
No market data
Result
⏳ Awaiting Result
Tracking until deadline
Resolution: Deadline not set
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
Reader View
How would you vote on this forecast?
Reader distribution will appear here after voting
Forecasts Awaiting Verification 1586
The event has occurred, but the evidence check and resolution record are still being finalized.
Showing the first 36 cards first. The rest load on demand.
Last updated: 2026-06-03 07:59 JST
Resolved Forecasts 724
Click to expand details
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Around July 24, 2026Resolved: Will US tariffs on imports remain above 10% through July 2026?Key Event: Around July 24, 2026: The 150-day Section 122 tariff deadline — 'X-Day' determining whether CongressOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 12% confidence(Base 50% + Bear 30%) = NO 12%➡ Verdict: US tariffs fail to remain above 10% past July 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump's Section 122 10% Tariff: Structural Impact of the "150-Day Time Bomb"Article-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Around July 24, 2026
Resolved: Will US tariffs on imports remain above 10% through July 2026?
Key Event: Around July 24, 2026: The 150-day Section 122 tariff deadline — 'X-Day' determining whether Congress
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 12% confidence
(Base 50% + Bear 30%) = NO 12%
➡ Verdict: US tariffs fail to remain above 10% past July 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump's Section 122 10% Tariff: Structural Impact of the "150-Day Time Bomb"
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
30%
Base
50%
Bull
20%
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 88.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:trumpdynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: b18c083f27ce (medium)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (20%)
Congressional Republicans unify and pass permanent tariff legislation within 150 days. Trade deficit shrinks. Markets rally on policy certainty. S&P 500 rises.
→ 通商政策の法的安定化が確認されれば、輸入依存度の低い国内製造業関連株にシフトが合理的。ただし議会の合意は共和党内分裂を考慮すると実現難度が高い。
Base (50%)
Section 122 tariffs run their 150-day course; Congress fails to make them permanent. Intra-GOP splits between free-traders and protectionists delay legislation. Market volatility spikes near the July deadline. Trump explores Section 301 as a backup.
→ 7月の期限に向けてボラティリティヘッジを構築すべき。企業は中国からの輸入コスト減（34%→10%）の恩恵を一時的に享受するが、長期計画は立てにくい。ドル安傾向が続く場合は金・BTCが恩恵を受ける。
Bear (30%)
Section 122 tariffs face legal challenge on 'balance-of-payments' grounds. Court issues injunction. Trump loses his main tariff tool, retaining only Section 232 (steel/aluminum) and Section 301 (China). $134B refund litigation advances; fiscal deficit widens.
→ 関税政策の完全崩壊シナリオでは、輸入依存型企業（小売、テック）が恩恵を受ける一方、国内製造業は保護を失う。財政赤字拡大とドル安を前提に、金・BTC・国際分散投資が有効。
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 50%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: April 2026Resolved: Will Trump sign crypto-friendly legislation into law before end of 2026?Key Event: Dough Finance lawsuit hearing in April 2026 — the first legal test directly impacting WLFI credibiliOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 74% confidence⚡ Contrarian(Bull 35% + Base 45%) = YES 74%➡ Verdict: Trump signs crypto-friendly legislation by end of 2026 → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)NO 4%4% of prediction market capital bets on NOTrump Family Crypto Summit: "Regulatory Capture" from Goldman CEO to Nicki MinajArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final4%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: April 2026
Resolved: Will Trump sign crypto-friendly legislation into law before end of 2026?
Key Event: Dough Finance lawsuit hearing in April 2026 — the first legal test directly impacting WLFI credibili
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 74% confidence⚡ Contrarian
(Bull 35% + Base 45%) = YES 74%
➡ Verdict: Trump signs crypto-friendly legislation by end of 2026 → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?
🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)NO 4%
4% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Trump Family Crypto Summit: "Regulatory Capture" from Goldman CEO to Nicki Minaj
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final4%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
20%
Base
45%
Bull
35%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
4%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 65.1% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 96.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.12) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump / domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
entity:trumpdomain:crypto
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 295ea5c99d0d
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Institutionalization (Bull) (35%)
GENIUS Act rules favor WLFI/USD1. CLARITY Act passes in 2026. Goldman and Franklin Templeton join the WLFI ecosystem. USD1 enters the stablecoin top 3. Trump family crypto empire becomes entrenched with the administration.
→ トークン化不動産・RWA関連プロジェクトへの投資機会が拡大するが、政権交代リスクを常に意識すべき。
Stalemate (Base) (45%)
Congressional investigations continue but are blocked by the Republican majority. GENIUS Act rules land by July. CLARITY Act stalls before midterms. WLFI keeps expanding but conflict-of-interest criticism accumulates. USD1's Binance concentration (87%) emerges as a market risk.
→ WLFIエコシステムへの直接投資は避け、トークン化トレンド全体（Securitize、Ondo等のインフラ層）に分散投資が賢明。
Backlash (Bear) (20%)
Dough Finance ruling (April 2026) finds WLFI co-founder guilty of fraud. Bipartisan 'Presidential Crypto Conflict Act' forces structural changes to WLFI. Binance's USD1 concentration triggers forced diversification. Trump family begins staged exit from crypto.
→ USD1やWLFIへのエクスポージャーは即座にヘッジ。規制強化は他のステーブルコイン（USDC等）やRWAプラットフォームへの追い風になりうる。
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: March 18–19, 2026Resolved: Will Bitcoin exceed $80,000 by June 2026?Key Event: FOMC statement on March 18-19, 2026 — whether the Fed signals rate cuts (tariff inflation confirmedOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 68% confidence⚡ ALPHA +54pt (vs market)(Base 55% + [?] 25%) = NO 68%➡ Verdict: BTC fails to break $80K by end of June 2026 → ❌ Missed❓ Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)YES 86%86% of prediction market capital bets on YESBTC Briefly Rebounds to $68K on Supreme Court Tariff RulingArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final86%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: March 18–19, 2026
Resolved: Will Bitcoin exceed $80,000 by June 2026?
Key Event: FOMC statement on March 18-19, 2026 — whether the Fed signals rate cuts (tariff inflation confirmed
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 68% confidence⚡ ALPHA +54pt (vs market)
(Base 55% + [?] 25%) = NO 68%
➡ Verdict: BTC fails to break $80K by end of June 2026 → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)YES 86%
86% of prediction market capital bets on YES
BTC Briefly Rebounds to $68K on Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final86%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
55%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
86%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 63.3% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 86.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14) / market raw 0.02
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin / dynamics=tariff-escalation / domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoindynamic:tariff-escalationdomain:cryptopattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: a615cd0082fc (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Narrative Revival (20%)
Fed signals rate cuts at March FOMC. DXY drops below 95. BTC recovers to $80K+. ETF inflows resume. Institutions re-evaluate BTC as a portfolio inflation hedge. Gold and BTC rise together — 'digital gold' narrative partially restored.
→ BTCとゴールドの両方にエクスポージャーを取る分散戦略。ETF流入データを先行指標として監視。
Base (Range-Bound) (55%)
Fed holds rates; PCE stays near 3%. BTC drifts $65K-$73K with no clear direction. ETF outflows narrow but inflows remain muted. Identity crisis persists between 'digital gold' and 'risk asset.' Political uncertainty suppresses all risk assets ahead of midterms.
→ BTCのレンジ取引は可能だが方向性賭けは危険。65,000ドル割れにストップ、73,300ドル突破で追従のレンジ戦略。
Bear (Narrative Collapse) (25%)
Section 122 tariffs keep residual inflation elevated; Fed considers rate hike. Gold breaks $5K while BTC falls below $60K. Strategy's unrealized losses create BTC selling pressure. ETF outflows accelerate. BTC is redefined as 'high-beta speculative asset,' not digital gold.
→ BTCエクスポージャーの即時縮小。ゴールドや短期国債への退避。ビットコインマイニング銘柄のショートが有効。
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Q4 2026Resolved: Will Apple lose its EU DMA appeal by December 2026?Key Event: Apple EU DMA appeal ruling (Q4 2026)Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 80% confidence(Base 55% + Bull 25%) = YES 80%➡ Verdict: Apple loses EU DMA appeal by December 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisThe Structure Behind the EU's ¥2 Trillion Fine on AppleTracker-only判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Q4 2026
Resolved: Will Apple lose its EU DMA appeal by December 2026?
Key Event: Apple EU DMA appeal ruling (Q4 2026)
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 80% confidence
(Base 55% + Bull 25%) = YES 80%
➡ Verdict: Apple loses EU DMA appeal by December 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
The Structure Behind the EU's ¥2 Trillion Fine on Apple
Tracker-only
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
20%
Base
55%
Bull
25%
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu/apple
Referenced knowledge
entity:euentity:apple
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base (55%)
Apple reduces App Store fees to 22% as part of a negotiated compliance settlement. Limited competitive impact but sets a precedent for other platforms.
→ 手数料引き下げに備えるべき
Bull (25%)
Multiple jurisdictions follow the EU's lead with similar DMA-style regulations. Apple faces a global fee compression cycle across its services business.
→ 規制関連銘柄への投資を検討
Bear (20%)
Apple wins the appeal and the fine is overturned or substantially reduced. EU regulatory momentum stalls; other platforms delay compliance.
→ 判断を保留
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026Resolved: Will NASA Mars rovers complete more than 50 km of AI-autonomous navigation (without real-time Earth control) by December 2026?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 26% confidence(Bull 25% + Base 55%) = YES 26%➡ Verdict: Mars rovers achieve 50+ km AI-autonomous navigation → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNASA Succeeds with AI Autonomous Driving on MarsTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026
Resolved: Will NASA Mars rovers complete more than 50 km of AI-autonomous navigation (without real-time Earth control) by December 2026?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 26% confidence
(Bull 25% + Base 55%) = YES 26%
➡ Verdict: Mars rovers achieve 50+ km AI-autonomous navigation → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
NASA Succeeds with AI Autonomous Driving on Mars
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
20%
Base
55%
Bull
25%
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 74.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: bac96a90f927
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (25%)
Bullish case in the published scenario split (25%).
Base (55%)
Base case in the published scenario split (55%).
Bear (20%)
Bearish case in the published scenario split (20%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026Resolved: Will Ethereum's TVL (total value locked across all protocols) remain above $80 billion by December 2026?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 32% confidence(Bull 20% + Base 55%) = YES 32%➡ Verdict: Ethereum TVL stays above $80B through Dec 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisVitalik Warns of AI Runaway: d/acc's Human-Centered AI x Crypto VisionTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026
Resolved: Will Ethereum's TVL (total value locked across all protocols) remain above $80 billion by December 2026?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 32% confidence
(Bull 20% + Base 55%) = YES 32%
➡ Verdict: Ethereum TVL stays above $80B through Dec 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Vitalik Warns of AI Runaway: d/acc's Human-Centered AI x Crypto Vision
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
25%
Base
55%
Bull
20%
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 42.1% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.34)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum / domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumdomain:crypto
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 32a058a36f69
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (20%)
Bullish case in the published scenario split (20%).
Base (55%)
Base case in the published scenario split (55%).
Bear (25%)
Bearish case in the published scenario split (25%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 55%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: June 30, 2026Resolved: Will the US Congress pass legislation limiting presidential tariff authority by June 2026?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence(Base 50% + Bear 30%) = NO 6%➡ Verdict: Congress fails to pass tariff authority limits by June 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump "To Address the Court" Remark: Tariff Ruling Shakes the Balance of PowerArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: June 30, 2026
Resolved: Will the US Congress pass legislation limiting presidential tariff authority by June 2026?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
(Base 50% + Bear 30%) = NO 6%
➡ Verdict: Congress fails to pass tariff authority limits by June 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump "To Address the Court" Remark: Tariff Ruling Shakes the Balance of Power
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
30%
Base
50%
Bull
20%
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredNot Scored
This prediction shows a verdict only. No Brier-based score is published. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:trumpdynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: e7b6e33654b3
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (20%)
Bullish case in the published scenario split (20%).
Base (50%)
Base case in the published scenario split (50%).
Bear (30%)
Bearish case in the published scenario split (30%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026Resolved: Will Bitcoin (BTC) outperform the S&P 500 on a year-to-date basis by December 31, 2026?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 38% confidence(Base 50% + Bear 30%) = NO 38%➡ Verdict: BTC fails to outperform S&P 500 YTD by Dec 31, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBTC Underperforms S&P 500 and Gold: Debunking the "Digital Gold" MythArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026
Resolved: Will Bitcoin (BTC) outperform the S&P 500 on a year-to-date basis by December 31, 2026?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 38% confidence
(Base 50% + Bear 30%) = NO 38%
➡ Verdict: BTC fails to outperform S&P 500 YTD by Dec 31, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
BTC Underperforms S&P 500 and Gold: Debunking the "Digital Gold" Myth
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
30%
Base
50%
Bull
20%
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 49.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.26)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 176c4c30aeb8
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (20%)
Bullish case in the published scenario split (20%).
Base (50%)
Base case in the published scenario split (50%).
Bear (30%)
Bearish case in the published scenario split (30%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026Resolved: Will publicly listed companies collectively hold more than 3 million BTC by December 31, 2026?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 15% confidence(Bull 25% + Base 50%) = YES 15%➡ Verdict: Public company BTC holdings exceed 3 million coins → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPublic Companies' BTC Holdings Exceed 2 Million: The Next Game of "Irreversible Institutionalization"Article-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026
Resolved: Will publicly listed companies collectively hold more than 3 million BTC by December 31, 2026?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 15% confidence
(Bull 25% + Base 50%) = YES 15%
➡ Verdict: Public company BTC holdings exceed 3 million coins → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Public Companies' BTC Holdings Exceed 2 Million: The Next Game of "Irreversible Institutionalization"
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
25%
Base
50%
Bull
25%
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (25%)
Bullish case in the published scenario split (25%).
Base (50%)
Base case in the published scenario split (50%).
Bear (25%)
Bearish case in the published scenario split (25%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026Resolved: Will a major US crypto regulatory bill explicitly establish a legal framework for DeFi protocols (by name) by end of 2026?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 20% confidence(Base 60% + Bear 30%) = NO 20%➡ Verdict: No US bill establishes DeFi legal framework in 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHyperliquid Establishes Lobbying Group in DC: DeFi Moves From "Regulated" to "Regulating"Article-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026
Resolved: Will a major US crypto regulatory bill explicitly establish a legal framework for DeFi protocols (by name) by end of 2026?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 20% confidence
(Base 60% + Bear 30%) = NO 20%
➡ Verdict: No US bill establishes DeFi legal framework in 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hyperliquid Establishes Lobbying Group in DC: DeFi Moves From "Regulated" to "Regulating"
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
30%
Base
60%
Bull
25%
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 80.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.04)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
domain:crypto
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 386cbbd522ef
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (25%)
Bullish case in the published scenario split (25%).
Base (60%)
Base case in the published scenario split (60%).
Bear (30%)
Bearish case in the published scenario split (30%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026Resolved: Will Amazon, Alibaba, or Shopify officially launch AI agent purchasing capabilities (autonomous checkout) by December 2026?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 80% confidence(Bull 25% + Base 65%) = YES 80%➡ Verdict: A top-3 e-commerce platform officially launches AI agent purchasing → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAI Agents Start "Shopping": From $50 Experiment to $15 Trillion FutureTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026
Resolved: Will Amazon, Alibaba, or Shopify officially launch AI agent purchasing capabilities (autonomous checkout) by December 2026?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 80% confidence
(Bull 25% + Base 65%) = YES 80%
➡ Verdict: A top-3 e-commerce platform officially launches AI agent purchasing → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AI Agents Start "Shopping": From $50 Experiment to $15 Trillion Future
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
25%
Base
65%
Bull
25%
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 40.9% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.35)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (25%)
Bullish case in the published scenario split (25%).
Base (65%)
Base case in the published scenario split (65%).
Bear (25%)
Bearish case in the published scenario split (25%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026Resolved: Will Russia face formal international sanction (UN resolution, ICC warrant, or equivalent) specifically for Navalny's death by end of 2026?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence(Base 65% + Bear 25%) = NO 5%➡ Verdict: Russia receives no formal international sanction for Navalny's death → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisThe Poison of the Poison Frog and the Kremlin: Chemical Proof of Navalny's AssassinationArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026
Resolved: Will Russia face formal international sanction (UN resolution, ICC warrant, or equivalent) specifically for Navalny's death by end of 2026?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
(Base 65% + Bear 25%) = NO 5%
➡ Verdict: Russia receives no formal international sanction for Navalny's death → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
The Poison of the Poison Frog and the Kremlin: Chemical Proof of Navalny's Assassination
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
25%
Base
65%
Bull
25%
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 40.9% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.35)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia
Referenced knowledge
entity:russia
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (25%)
Bullish case in the published scenario split (25%).
Base (65%)
Base case in the published scenario split (65%).
Bear (25%)
Bearish case in the published scenario split (25%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026Resolved: Will a formal ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia be signed by December 31, 2026?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 15% confidence(Base 65% + Bear 25%) = NO 15%➡ Verdict: No formal Ukraine-Russia ceasefire agreement signed in 2026 → ❌ Missed❓ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)NO 30%30% of prediction market capital bets on NOGeneva: Ukraine-Russia War NegotiationsArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final30%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026
Resolved: Will a formal ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia be signed by December 31, 2026?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 15% confidence
(Base 65% + Bear 25%) = NO 15%
➡ Verdict: No formal Ukraine-Russia ceasefire agreement signed in 2026 → ❌ Missed
❓ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)NO 30%
30% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Geneva: Ukraine-Russia War Negotiations
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final30%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
25%
Base
65%
Bull
25%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
30%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 71.3% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 70.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.08) / market raw 0.09
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraine
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (25%)
Bullish case in the published scenario split (25%).
Base (65%)
Base case in the published scenario split (65%).
Bear (25%)
Bearish case in the published scenario split (25%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: August 31, 2026Resolved: Will Iran formally close or officially threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz again by August 2026?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 8% confidence(Bull 25% + Base 65%) = YES 8%➡ Verdict: Iran formally closes/threatens Hormuz again by Aug 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisStrait of Hormuz Closure by Iran?Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: August 31, 2026
Resolved: Will Iran formally close or officially threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz again by August 2026?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 8% confidence
(Bull 25% + Base 65%) = YES 8%
➡ Verdict: Iran formally closes/threatens Hormuz again by Aug 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Strait of Hormuz Closure by Iran?
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
25%
Base
65%
Bull
25%
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 40.9% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.35)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 4f581fb3426a
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (25%)
Bullish case in the published scenario split (25%).
Base (65%)
Base case in the published scenario split (65%).
Bear (25%)
Bearish case in the published scenario split (25%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026Resolved: Will global Brent crude oil prices exceed $100 per barrel as a direct result of Hormuz tensions by December 2026?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 26% confidence(Base 55% + Bear 25%) = NO 26%➡ Verdict: Brent crude stays below $100 despite Hormuz tensions by Dec 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Closure: Will Brent Crude Exceed $100?Tracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: December 31, 2026
Resolved: Will global Brent crude oil prices exceed $100 per barrel as a direct result of Hormuz tensions by December 2026?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 26% confidence
(Base 55% + Bear 25%) = NO 26%
➡ Verdict: Brent crude stays below $100 despite Hormuz tensions by Dec 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Closure: Will Brent Crude Exceed $100?
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
25%
Base
55%
Bull
20%
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 74.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: ec0c419b6f14
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (20%)
Bullish case in the published scenario split (20%).
Base (55%)
Base case in the published scenario split (55%).
Bear (25%)
Bearish case in the published scenario split (25%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: March 18–19, 2026Resolved: Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at the March 2026 FOMC meeting?Key Event: March 19, 2026: FOMC statement. Rate cut or hold confirmed — 'X-Day'Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence⚡ Contrarian(Base 70% + Bear 15%) = NO 6%➡ Verdict: Fed holds or raises rates at March 2026 FOMC → ❌ Missed❓ Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)YES 100%100% of prediction market capital bets on YESWill the Fed Cut Rates at the March 2026 FOMC?Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final100%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: March 18–19, 2026
Resolved: Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates at the March 2026 FOMC meeting?
Key Event: March 19, 2026: FOMC statement. Rate cut or hold confirmed — 'X-Day'
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence⚡ Contrarian
(Base 70% + Bear 15%) = NO 6%
➡ Verdict: Fed holds or raises rates at March 2026 FOMC → ❌ Missed
❓ Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)YES 100%
100% of prediction market capital bets on YES
Will the Fed Cut Rates at the March 2026 FOMC?
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final100%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
15%
Base
70%
Bull
15%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
100%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 35.8% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.41) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 1c1adb53765c
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (15%)
Fed cuts 25bp in March as preventive measure amid labor market stress. Markets rally briefly but inflation concerns linger.
→ 利下げ確定なら長期国債・ゴールド・BTCに一時的な追い風。ただし持続性は低い。
Base (70%)
Fed holds rates, Powell reaffirms 'data-dependent' stance. Markets start pricing June cut. Stocks drift higher on rate-cut anticipation.
→ 据え置き確認で短期債が安定。株式は「6月利下げ期待」を材料に小幅上昇。ドルは横ばい。
Bear (15%)
Fed signals surprise hike or hawkish pivot. Trump-Powell friction resurfaces. Risk assets sell off sharply, dollar volatile.
→ 利上げシグナルが出たら株式・BTC・新興国通貨からの資金撤退を検討。現金・ドル建て短期債が安全圏。
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 過信リスク: 70%で予測したが外れた
2. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
3. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: March 18–19, 2026Resolved: Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $90,000 USD at any point before March 31, 2026?Key Event: March 31, 2026: BTC closing price. Above $90K = bull confirmed.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 30% confidence⚡ Contrarian(Base 50% + Bear 20%) = NO 30%➡ Verdict: BTC fails to close above $90K before March 31, 2026 → ❌ Missed❓ Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)YES 57%57% of prediction market capital bets on YESWill BTC Recover to $90,000 by March 2026?Tracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final57%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: March 18–19, 2026
Resolved: Will Bitcoin (BTC) close above $90,000 USD at any point before March 31, 2026?
Key Event: March 31, 2026: BTC closing price. Above $90K = bull confirmed.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 30% confidence⚡ Contrarian
(Base 50% + Bear 20%) = NO 30%
➡ Verdict: BTC fails to close above $90K before March 31, 2026 → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)YES 57%
57% of prediction market capital bets on YES
Will BTC Recover to $90,000 by March 2026?
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final57%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
20%
Base
50%
Bull
30%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
57%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 42.8% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 43.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.33) / market raw 0.32
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin / domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoindomain:crypto
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 96b1db20d19a
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (30%)
Institutional buying + rate cut expectations push BTC past $90K. Post-halving supply squeeze accelerates ETF inflows.
→ BTC現物またはETF（IBIT等）への乗り換え検討。ただし急騰後の調整に備えてポジション管理を徹底。
Base (50%)
BTC trades sideways $75K–$85K. Macro uncertainty (tariffs, Fed) caps upside. Month ends without major catalyst or direction.
→ レンジ内ならDCA（積立購入）が有効。大きなポジション変更は不要。
Bear (20%)
Risk-off (tariff shock, equity selloff) drags BTC below $65K. ETF outflows accelerate. $60K–$65K support tested.
→ 急落シグナル（週足での$75K割れ）が出たら即ポジション縮小。ステーブルコインへの避難が合理的。
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Around July 24, 2026Resolved: Will US tariffs on Chinese imports remain above 10% after July 24, 2026?Key Event: July 24, 2026: Section 122 tariff 150-day deadline (from Feb 28, 2026). Congress extends or tariffsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 75% confidence(Bull 20% + Base 55%) = YES 75%➡ Verdict: US tariffs on China stay above 10% after July 24, 2026 → ❌ Missed❓ Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31?🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)YES 100%100% of prediction market capital bets on YESWill Trump's Section 122 Tariffs Continue After July 2026?Tracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final100%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Around July 24, 2026
Resolved: Will US tariffs on Chinese imports remain above 10% after July 24, 2026?
Key Event: July 24, 2026: Section 122 tariff 150-day deadline (from Feb 28, 2026). Congress extends or tariffs
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 75% confidence
(Bull 20% + Base 55%) = YES 75%
➡ Verdict: US tariffs on China stay above 10% after July 24, 2026 → ❌ Missed
❓ Will a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31?
🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)YES 100%
100% of prediction market capital bets on YES
Will Trump's Section 122 Tariffs Continue After July 2026?
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final100%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
25%
Base
55%
Bull
20%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
100%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 42.1% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 0.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.34) / market raw 1.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/trump / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:trumpdynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: c19dad1cc11c
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (20%)
US-China reach comprehensive trade deal, tariffs phased down. Supply chains stabilize, inflation cools. Stocks surge, USD weakens.
→ 米中交渉妥結ならば中国関連ETF（FXI等）と輸入依存型小売株が急騰する。先行して仕込むのがベター。
Base (55%)
Tariffs continue post-April. Political pressures (midterms) prevent rollback. Firms pass costs to consumers; inflation re-accelerates, delaying Fed cuts.
→ 関税継続が確定したら輸入依存型企業を避け、国内製造業・エネルギー・コモディティにシフト。BTC・金は「インフレヘッジ」として保有継続。
Bear (25%)
Tariff escalation. China retaliates broadly. US farm/tech exports targeted. Companies lose China revenue. Stocks drop 10%+.
→ 全面的な貿易戦争に備えるなら中国収益依存企業（Apple、Tesla等）を売り、農業・資源株を避ける。ゴールドと国内消費株が避難先。
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: TBDResolved: Will the prediction about 'Will Bitcoin Exceed $150,000 by 2026?' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 27% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if BTC/USD price records ≥$150,000 on a daily close basis (not intraday spike) on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap at or before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisWill Bitcoin Exceed $150,000 by 2026?Tracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: TBD
Resolved: Will the prediction about 'Will Bitcoin Exceed $150,000 by 2026?' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if BTC/USD price records ≥$150,000 on a daily close basis (not intraday spike) on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap at or before 23:59 UTC December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Will Bitcoin Exceed $150,000 by 2026?
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
27%
Market (Manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 93.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (27%)
Whether the BTC/USD price on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap is $150,
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: March-April 2026Resolved: Will Iran formally appoint a new Supreme Leader by June 30, 2026?Key Event: Assembly of Experts formal succession session. 90-day window from Feb 28 assassination = May 28, 202Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence(Bull 70% + Base 20%) = YES 95%➡ Verdict: A new Supreme Leader is formally appointed by June 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisWill Iran Appoint a New Supreme Leader by June 2026?Tracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Feb 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: March-April 2026
Resolved: Will Iran formally appoint a new Supreme Leader by June 30, 2026?
Key Event: Assembly of Experts formal succession session. 90-day window from Feb 28 assassination = May 28, 202
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
(Bull 70% + Base 20%) = YES 95%
➡ Verdict: A new Supreme Leader is formally appointed by June 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Will Iran Appoint a New Supreme Leader by June 2026?
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Feb 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
10%
Base
20%
Bull
70%
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 8819d442633d
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (70%)
Assembly appoints successor within 90 days (by June 30). 1989 precedent: 3 days from Khomeini death. Pragmatists push compromise candidate.
→ 後継者確定で穏健派なら核合意再開が視野。原油先物一時下落。エネルギー株ショートの機会。
Base (20%)
Council governance continues 3-6 months. Resolution slips to H2 2026.
→ 不確実性の長期化。イラン関連リスク資産は売り圧力継続。
Bear (10%)
IRGC/Mojtaba faction vs. reformists. Prolonged power struggle. No appointment in 2026.
→ 中東情勢全面不安定化。エネルギー株ロング、リスク資産オフ。
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: July 24, 2026Resolved: Will Trump Section 122 15% tariffs be substantially rolled back before July 24, 2026?Key Event: July 24, 2026: Section 122 150-day legal limit. Cannot extend without Congress.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 13% confidence(Base 55% + Bear 20%) = NO 13%➡ Verdict: Tariffs NOT rolled back before July 24 — NO wins (tariffs maintained) → ❌ Missed❓ Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026?🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOWill Trump's Section 122 Tariffs Be Rolled Back?Tracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: July 24, 2026
Resolved: Will Trump Section 122 15% tariffs be substantially rolled back before July 24, 2026?
Key Event: July 24, 2026: Section 122 150-day legal limit. Cannot extend without Congress.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 13% confidence
(Base 55% + Bear 20%) = NO 13%
➡ Verdict: Tariffs NOT rolled back before July 24 — NO wins (tariffs maintained) → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026?
🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Will Trump's Section 122 Tariffs Be Rolled Back?
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
20%
Base
55%
Bull
25%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 42.1% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.34) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:trumpdynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (Early Rollback) (25%)
US-China comprehensive deal before June. Trump frames rollback as best deal. FXI/KWEB surge.
→ 早期撤回サインが出たら中国関連ETF（FXI、KWEB）を即買い。輸入依存小売も受益。
Base (Holds to Deadline) (55%)
Tariffs maintained to July 24 deadline. Section 122 expires automatically after 150 days.
→ 期限まで維持と想定し、インフレヘッジ資産（金・BTC・エネルギー）を保有継続。
Bear (Escalation) (20%)
China retaliates, Trump doubles down. After Section 122 expires, switches to Section 201/301.
→ 全面デカップリング加速。中国向けサプライチェーン再編コスト上昇。ベトナム・インド・メキシコ受益。
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: March 18-19, 2026Resolved: Will Bitcoin close above $70,000 on March 31, 2026?Key Event: March 18-19 FOMC: 97% probability of hold. BTC reaction to confirmed pause. Iran succession progressOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 56% confidence(Bull 55% + Base 30%) = YES 56%➡ Verdict: BTC closes at or above $70,000 on March 31, 2026 → ❌ Missed❓ Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)YES 100%100% of prediction market capital bets on YESWill Bitcoin Exceed $70,000 by March 2026?Tracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final100%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: March 18-19, 2026
Resolved: Will Bitcoin close above $70,000 on March 31, 2026?
Key Event: March 18-19 FOMC: 97% probability of hold. BTC reaction to confirmed pause. Iran succession progress
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 56% confidence
(Bull 55% + Base 30%) = YES 56%
➡ Verdict: BTC closes at or above $70,000 on March 31, 2026 → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)YES 100%
100% of prediction market capital bets on YES
Will Bitcoin Exceed $70,000 by March 2026?
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final100%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
15%
Base
30%
Bull
55%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
100%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 67.6% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.10) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin / domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoindomain:crypto
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: c7cdfe8b4877
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (55%)
Geopolitical risk (Iran, tariffs) drives BTC as inflation hedge. $68k to $70k is just +3%. FOMC hold 97% expected.
→ 現在$68k。$70k超えたら達成確定。保有継続が基本戦略。
Base (30%)
Range-bound $64k-$68k. FOMC hold confirmed dampens risk appetite. BTC stays below $70k end of March.
→ レンジ内でのトレーディング。$65k割れでロスカット検討。
Bear (15%)
Middle East escalation (Iran civil war, Hormuz closure). Risk asset sell-off. BTC drops below $60k.
→ 中東リスク拡大サインが出たらBTC削減。原油先物ロングにシフト。
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 55%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: May 2026Resolved: Will the prediction about 'GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Platform Power Play Resha' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: At least 100 Fortune 500 companies (per the 2026 Fortune 500 list) have GPT-6 deployed in at least one production workflow (not pilot/testing) as confirmed by company announcements, OpenAI disclosures, or credible third-party surveys (e.g., McKinsey, Gartner, IDC). → ❌ Missed❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Platform Power Play Reshapes the AI StackArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: May 2026
Resolved: Will the prediction about 'GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Platform Power Play Resha' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: At least 100 Fortune 500 companies (per the 2026 Fortune 500 list) have GPT-6 deployed in at least one production workflow (not pilot/testing) as confirmed by company announcements, OpenAI disclosures, or credible third-party surveys (e.g., McKinsey, Gartner, IDC). → ❌ Missed
❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Platform Power Play Reshapes the AI Stack
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
77%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (77%)
If this prediction fails, the most likely reason is that enterprise procurement cycles are slower than expected — Fortune 500 companies run extended pilots throughout 2026 but delay production deployment decisions to 2027, especially in regulated industries where compliance review adds 6+ months to adoption timelines.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: 1-4 weeks after Taiwan's exerciseResolved: Will China conduct a military exercise in the Taiwan Strait of equal or greater scale within two weeks of Taiwan's March 2026 drill?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: China (PLA) announces and begins a military exercise explicitly in or around the Taiwan Strait within 14 calendar days of Taiwan's exercise start date. The exercise must involve at least two PLA service branches (e.g., navy + air force) and include live-fire components. Verification: official PLA/Xinhua announcement plus confirmation from at least one independent source (Reuters, AP, or Taiwan MND). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan's Largest Military Drill — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw Asia's Security MapArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: 1-4 weeks after Taiwan's exercise
Resolved: Will China conduct a military exercise in the Taiwan Strait of equal or greater scale within two weeks of Taiwan's March 2026 drill?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: China (PLA) announces and begins a military exercise explicitly in or around the Taiwan Strait within 14 calendar days of Taiwan's exercise start date. The exercise must involve at least two PLA service branches (e.g., navy + air force) and include live-fire components. Verification: official PLA/Xinhua announcement plus confirmation from at least one independent source (Reuters, AP, or Taiwan MND). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan's Largest Military Drill — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw Asia's Security Map
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
91%
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 14f50f380b49
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (91%)
Beijing may choose a delayed or asymmetric response (cyber operations, economic coercion, or diplomatic pressure) rather than a tit-for-tat military exercise, calculating that a visible military response plays into Taiwan's narrative of Chinese aggression and strengthens the case for further US arms sales.
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 過信リスク: 91%で予測したが外れた
2. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
3. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Within 1-2 weeksResolved: Will US and Chinese naval vessels be involved in a physical collision or exchange of fire in the South China Sea by 2026-04-04?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A physical collision between US Navy and PLA Navy/Chinese Coast Guard vessels, or any exchange of fire (warning shots, directed weapons) between US and Chinese military forces in the South China Sea, confirmed by official statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisScarborough Shoal Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw Asia's MapArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Within 1-2 weeks
Resolved: Will US and Chinese naval vessels be involved in a physical collision or exchange of fire in the South China Sea by 2026-04-04?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A physical collision between US Navy and PLA Navy/Chinese Coast Guard vessels, or any exchange of fire (warning shots, directed weapons) between US and Chinese military forces in the South China Sea, confirmed by official statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Scarborough Shoal Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw Asia's Map
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
1%
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 1e48988b905f (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (1%)
If this prediction is wrong, the most likely reason is that a routine Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal produced a Chinese coast guard interdiction that escalated to involve US escort vessels, creating a three-party confrontation where miscalculation risk multiplied beyond what bilateral crisis management could contain.
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 1%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Within 7-14 days of testResolved: Will NATO officially announce a new missile defense initiative or specific military countermeasure directly referencing Russia's hypersonic missile test by 2026-03-14?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if any official NATO statement, communiqué, or press conference by the NATO Secretary General or North Atlantic Council explicitly announces a new missile defense system deployment, procurement decision, or military countermeasure program that directly references the Russian hypersonic missile test. Routine condemnation statements or vague commitments to 'review' defense posture do not count. The announcement must specify a concrete military capability or program. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Hypersonic Missile Test — Escalation Spiral Meets NATO's Strategic DilemmaArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Within 7-14 days of test
Resolved: Will NATO officially announce a new missile defense initiative or specific military countermeasure directly referencing Russia's hypersonic missile test by 2026-03-14?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if any official NATO statement, communiqué, or press conference by the NATO Secretary General or North Atlantic Council explicitly announces a new missile defense system deployment, procurement decision, or military countermeasure program that directly references the Russian hypersonic missile test. Routine condemnation statements or vague commitments to 'review' defense posture do not count. The announcement must specify a concrete military capability or program. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Hypersonic Missile Test — Escalation Spiral Meets NATO's Strategic Dilemma
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
6%
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 6.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.88)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 7babce4507c3
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (6%)
If this prediction is wrong (NATO does announce a concrete countermeasure within 10 days), the most likely reason is that Eastern European members — particularly Poland or the Baltic states — successfully pressured the alliance into an accelerated response, possibly leveraging pre-existing missile defense procurement decisions that were repackaged as a direct counter to the Russian test for political signaling purposes.
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Q2-Q3 2026Resolved: Will the prediction about 'EU AI Act Enforcement Begins — The Brussels Effect Reshapes ' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 11% confidence➡ Verdict: At least 5 countries outside the EU must have enacted (signed into law, not merely proposed or drafted) comprehensive AI legislation that: (1) uses a risk-based classification system for AI applications, (2) mandates conformity assessments for high-risk AI systems, and (3) explicitly references the EU AI Act as a model or template in official legislative documents or government statements. Countries that adopt only partial measures (e.g., sector-specific AI rules, voluntary guidelines, or executive orders without legislative force) do not count. EU/EEA member states do not count. The assessment is based on enacted legislation as of December 31, 2027. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisEU AI Act Enforcement Begins — The Brussels Effect Reshapes Global Tech GovernanceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Manifold final26%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Q2-Q3 2026
Resolved: Will the prediction about 'EU AI Act Enforcement Begins — The Brussels Effect Reshapes ' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least 5 countries outside the EU must have enacted (signed into law, not merely proposed or drafted) comprehensive AI legislation that: (1) uses a risk-based classification system for AI applications, (2) mandates conformity assessments for high-risk AI systems, and (3) explicitly references the EU AI Act as a model or template in official legislative documents or government statements. Countries that adopt only partial measures (e.g., sector-specific AI rules, voluntary guidelines, or executive orders without legislative force) do not count. EU/EEA member states do not count. The assessment is based on enacted legislation as of December 31, 2027. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
EU AI Act Enforcement Begins — The Brussels Effect Reshapes Global Tech Governance
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Manifold final26%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
11%
Market (Manifold, pre-resolution)
26%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 74.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.07
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (11%)
If this prediction is wrong, the most likely reason is that a major AI safety incident (comparable to Cambridge Analytica's impact on data protection) creates urgent political pressure for comprehensive AI regulation globally, causing multiple countries to fast-track EU-modeled legislation that would otherwise have taken years to develop.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: June 10-11, 2026Resolved: Will the prediction about 'Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites t' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 27% confidence➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (coingecko.com) must be at or above $120,000.00 USD for this prediction to resolve YES. Any price below $120,000.00 resolves NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Rules of Sound MoneyArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: June 10-11, 2026
Resolved: Will the prediction about 'Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites t' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (coingecko.com) must be at or above $120,000.00 USD for this prediction to resolve YES. Any price below $120,000.00 resolves NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Rules of Sound Money
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
27%
Market (Manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 80.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07) / market raw 0.04
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin / domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoindomain:crypto
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (27%)
If this prediction is wrong (i.e., Bitcoin sustains above $120K), the most likely reason is that institutional ETF inflows proved stronger and more persistent than historical analogies suggested, or a major macro catalyst (aggressive Fed cuts, sovereign adoption) provided additional demand that offset the natural exhaustion of the initial institutional FOMO wave.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: March-June 2026Resolved: Will the U.S. Congress hold a formal floor vote on an Iran-specific Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) by 2026-09-30?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal recorded vote (not just a committee hearing or introduced bill) on an Iran-specific AUMF in either the House or Senate floor by September 30, 2026. Votes on general war powers resolutions or amendments to other bills do not count — it must be an Iran-specific authorization. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Mission Drift — When Congress Cannot Define What Victory MeansArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: March-June 2026
Resolved: Will the U.S. Congress hold a formal floor vote on an Iran-specific Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) by 2026-09-30?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal recorded vote (not just a committee hearing or introduced bill) on an Iran-specific AUMF in either the House or Senate floor by September 30, 2026. Votes on general war powers resolutions or amendments to other bills do not count — it must be an Iran-specific authorization. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Mission Drift — When Congress Cannot Define What Victory Means
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
1%
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 1.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.98)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (1%)
If this prediction is wrong, the most likely reason is a major escalatory event — such as U.S. military casualties from an Iranian proxy attack or Iran testing a nuclear device — that forces Congress to act regardless of leadership preferences.
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Expected May-June 2026Resolved: Will the prediction about 'Iran's Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redra' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A verified military strike by Israeli forces (IDF) targeting one or more Iranian nuclear facilities (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, Parchin, or Arak), confirmed by official Israeli government/military statement, credible international media reporting, or IAEA confirmation of facility damage, occurring on or before June 30, 2026. Covert operations (cyber attacks, sabotage, assassinations) do NOT qualify — this must be an overt military strike using aerial, missile, or naval assets. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran's Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Middle EastArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Manifold final83%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Expected May-June 2026
Resolved: Will the prediction about 'Iran's Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redra' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A verified military strike by Israeli forces (IDF) targeting one or more Iranian nuclear facilities (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, Parchin, or Arak), confirmed by official Israeli government/military statement, credible international media reporting, or IAEA confirmation of facility damage, occurring on or before June 30, 2026. Covert operations (cyber attacks, sabotage, assassinations) do NOT qualify — this must be an overt military strike using aerial, missile, or naval assets. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran's Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Middle East
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Manifold final83%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
6%
Market (Manifold, pre-resolution)
83%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 83.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.03
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (6%)
If our NO prediction is wrong, the most likely reason is that an IAEA report reveals Iran has crossed the 90% enrichment threshold or begun weapons integration, triggering an Israeli 'now or never' calculus where the closing window for effective military action overrides the costs of escalation.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Next meeting: 2026-03-18 to 2026-03-19Resolved: Will the prediction about 'Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional Capital Rewrites th' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 31% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) spot price on at least one major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) touches or exceeds $150,000.00 at any point on or before June 30, 2026, as recorded by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical data. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional Capital Rewrites the Rules of Digital GoldArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Next meeting: 2026-03-18 to 2026-03-19
Resolved: Will the prediction about 'Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional Capital Rewrites th' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 31% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) spot price on at least one major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) touches or exceeds $150,000.00 at any point on or before June 30, 2026, as recorded by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical data. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional Capital Rewrites the Rules of Digital Gold
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
31%
Market (Manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 69.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 80.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.10) / market raw 0.04
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin / domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoindomain:crypto
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (31%)
If this prediction fails, the most likely reason is that the Federal Reserve maintains or increases rates through mid-2026, creating a stronger-dollar environment that caps risk asset appreciation, combined with ETF inflow deceleration as the initial adoption wave plateaus before the next wave of pension fund allocators enters.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: 24-72 hoursResolved: Will the Strait of Hormuz experience a sustained closure (commercial shipping halted for 48+ consecutive hours) by April 30, 2026?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A 'sustained closure' is defined as major commercial shipping lines (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM) officially suspending transit through the Strait of Hormuz for 48 or more consecutive hours due to military hostilities, confirmed by Lloyd's List or Reuters shipping tracker. Temporary diversions or advisory warnings without actual suspension do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Sinks Iranian Warship — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can ExitArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: 24-72 hours
Resolved: Will the Strait of Hormuz experience a sustained closure (commercial shipping halted for 48+ consecutive hours) by April 30, 2026?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A 'sustained closure' is defined as major commercial shipping lines (Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM) officially suspending transit through the Strait of Hormuz for 48 or more consecutive hours due to military hostilities, confirmed by Lloyd's List or Reuters shipping tracker. Temporary diversions or advisory warnings without actual suspension do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Sinks Iranian Warship — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can Exit
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
11%
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 11.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.79)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (11%)
If this prediction is wrong, the most likely reason is that Iran's IRGC followed through on its longstanding doctrine of Hormuz closure in response to what it perceived as an existential attack on the Islamic Republic, and the scale of US-Israeli strikes exceeded the threshold that kept Iran from invoking this option.
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: 1-4 weeks from initial threatResolved: Will the prediction about 'Spain Defies Trump on Iran — Alliance Strain Meets Imperial ' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 77% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the US government announces, implements, or formally threatens (via executive order, USTR notice, or official presidential/cabinet statement) any tariffs, trade restrictions, or sanctions specifically targeting Spain and explicitly or implicitly linked to Spain's opposition to the Iran military campaign by June 5, 2026. General EU-wide tariffs that are not Spain-specific do not count. NO if no Spain-specific trade action is taken or threatened. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSpain Defies Trump on Iran — Alliance Strain Meets Imperial OverreachArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Manifold final5%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: 1-4 weeks from initial threat
Resolved: Will the prediction about 'Spain Defies Trump on Iran — Alliance Strain Meets Imperial ' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the US government announces, implements, or formally threatens (via executive order, USTR notice, or official presidential/cabinet statement) any tariffs, trade restrictions, or sanctions specifically targeting Spain and explicitly or implicitly linked to Spain's opposition to the Iran military campaign by June 5, 2026. General EU-wide tariffs that are not Spain-specific do not count. NO if no Spain-specific trade action is taken or threatened. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Spain Defies Trump on Iran — Alliance Strain Meets Imperial Overreach
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Manifold final5%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
77%
Market (Manifold, pre-resolution)
5%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 95.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trumpdynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (77%)
Trump may use the trade threat as rhetorical leverage without following through with formal action, calculating that the threat itself is sufficient to signal displeasure while avoiding the diplomatic costs of actually sanctioning a NATO ally — making the threat a bluff that never materializes into policy.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Days to weeksResolved: Will Australia deploy ADF military assets (aircraft or naval vessels) for civilian evacuation from the Middle East by 2026-04-05?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Official Australian government announcement or ADF confirmation of military aircraft or naval vessels being deployed specifically for civilian evacuation from Middle East conflict zones. Routine ADF transport flights already scheduled do not count — must be a specific crisis deployment ordered in response to the current situation. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAustralia's Middle East Evacuation — Domestic Politics Weaponize a Repatriation CrisisArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Days to weeks
Resolved: Will Australia deploy ADF military assets (aircraft or naval vessels) for civilian evacuation from the Middle East by 2026-04-05?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Official Australian government announcement or ADF confirmation of military aircraft or naval vessels being deployed specifically for civilian evacuation from Middle East conflict zones. Routine ADF transport flights already scheduled do not count — must be a specific crisis deployment ordered in response to the current situation. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Australia's Middle East Evacuation — Domestic Politics Weaponize a Repatriation Crisis
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
18%
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 9f529b239772 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (18%)
A sudden escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict could close commercial air corridors, forcing the government to deploy military assets regardless of political preference — the same pattern that occurred in Lebanon 2006 and Afghanistan 2021.
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 18%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: March-April 2026Resolved: Will the prediction about 'Sánchez's 'No to War' — NATO's Fracture Line Splits Open in ' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 1% confidence➡ Verdict: Spain's official defense budget for 2026, as reported by NATO or Spain's Ministry of Defense, reaches or exceeds 2.0% of GDP. Measured using NATO's standardized methodology for defense expenditure. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSánchez's 'No to War' — NATO's Fracture Line Splits Open in MadridArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: March-April 2026
Resolved: Will the prediction about 'Sánchez's 'No to War' — NATO's Fracture Line Splits Open in ' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 1% confidence
➡ Verdict: Spain's official defense budget for 2026, as reported by NATO or Spain's Ministry of Defense, reaches or exceeds 2.0% of GDP. Measured using NATO's standardized methodology for defense expenditure. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Sánchez's 'No to War' — NATO's Fracture Line Splits Open in Madrid
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
1%
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 1.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.98)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (1%)
If this prediction is wrong, the most likely reason is that Spain quietly reclassified existing government spending (pensions for military veterans, dual-use infrastructure) as 'defense expenditure' to inflate the headline number without actually increasing military capability — a accounting maneuver several NATO allies have used to approach the 2% target.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: OngoingResolved: Will Russia's average Urals crude export price exceed $75/barrel for Q2 2026 (April-June) due to Middle East conflict premium?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Argus Media or Platts reported average Urals crude FOB price for the three-month period April 1 - June 30, 2026 must be above $75.00/barrel. Data source: Argus Urals CIF NWE assessment or equivalent benchmark. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Wartime Windfall — How Middle East Chaos Funds Moscow's War MachineArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Ongoing
Resolved: Will Russia's average Urals crude export price exceed $75/barrel for Q2 2026 (April-June) due to Middle East conflict premium?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Argus Media or Platts reported average Urals crude FOB price for the three-month period April 1 - June 30, 2026 must be above $75.00/barrel. Data source: Argus Urals CIF NWE assessment or equivalent benchmark. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Wartime Windfall — How Middle East Chaos Funds Moscow's War Machine
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
91%
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 91.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia
Referenced knowledge
entity:russia
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (91%)
If this prediction is wrong, the most likely reason is a rapid Middle East ceasefire in March-April 2026 that eliminates the conflict premium from oil prices, combined with aggressive OPEC+ production increases to stabilize the market, pushing Urals back below $70.
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: March 31Resolved: Will China impose new critical minerals export restrictions targeting US defense-related materials by 2026-06-30?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 87% confidence➡ Verdict: China's Ministry of Commerce or equivalent body announces new export controls, licensing requirements, or outright bans on any critical mineral (rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, or other USGS-designated critical minerals) specifically affecting US defense supply chains, between March 3, 2026 and June 30, 2026. The restriction must be a NEW measure not already in effect before March 3, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump's Iran Gambit — How Middle East Overreach Hands China Its Taiwan WindowArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: March 31
Resolved: Will China impose new critical minerals export restrictions targeting US defense-related materials by 2026-06-30?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 87% confidence
➡ Verdict: China's Ministry of Commerce or equivalent body announces new export controls, licensing requirements, or outright bans on any critical mineral (rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, or other USGS-designated critical minerals) specifically affecting US defense supply chains, between March 3, 2026 and June 30, 2026. The restriction must be a NEW measure not already in effect before March 3, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump's Iran Gambit — How Middle East Overreach Hands China Its Taiwan Window
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
87%
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 87.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.02)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (87%)
If this prediction is wrong, the most likely reason is that China calculates that weaponizing critical minerals during an active US military campaign would accelerate Western decoupling efforts faster than the short-term coercive leverage is worth — essentially deciding the long-game of maintained dependency is more valuable than the short-game of immediate pressure.
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Q2 2026Resolved: Will the prediction about 'Trump vs. Banks on Stablecoins — The Regulatory Capture War ' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 18% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: The US Senate passes (60+ votes for cloture and simple majority for final passage) a standalone crypto market structure bill that establishes CFTC/SEC jurisdictional clarity for digital assets, signed into law by the President. Amendments to existing bills or executive orders do not count — must be standalone legislation. → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOTrump vs. Banks on Stablecoins — The Regulatory Capture War Reshaping CryptoArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Q2 2026
Resolved: Will the prediction about 'Trump vs. Banks on Stablecoins — The Regulatory Capture War ' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 18% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: The US Senate passes (60+ votes for cloture and simple majority for final passage) a standalone crypto market structure bill that establishes CFTC/SEC jurisdictional clarity for digital assets, signed into law by the President. Amendments to existing bills or executive orders do not count — must be standalone legislation. → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
🏛 市場 ↗ Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Trump vs. Banks on Stablecoins — The Regulatory Capture War Reshaping Crypto
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
18%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (18%)
If this prediction is wrong, the most likely reason is that Trump's public pressure campaign succeeds in breaking Republican-bank donor ties, and a bipartisan coalition assembles faster than expected by attaching crypto market structure provisions to a must-pass spending bill or defense authorization.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Within 72 hours to 2 weeksResolved: Will Iran attempt to close or significantly disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (defined as at least one confirmed attack on a commercial vessel) by 2026-04-04?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution is YES if at least one commercial (non-military) vessel is attacked by Iranian forces, Iranian-attributed mines, or Iranian-backed proxy forces in the Strait of Hormuz or immediately adjacent waters (Gulf of Oman, Persian Gulf within 100nm of Hormuz) between March 4 and April 4, 2026, as confirmed by CENTCOM, Lloyd's maritime intelligence, or two or more major wire services (Reuters, AP, AFP). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Sinks Iranian Warship — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can StopArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Within 72 hours to 2 weeks
Resolved: Will Iran attempt to close or significantly disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (defined as at least one confirmed attack on a commercial vessel) by 2026-04-04?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution is YES if at least one commercial (non-military) vessel is attacked by Iranian forces, Iranian-attributed mines, or Iranian-backed proxy forces in the Strait of Hormuz or immediately adjacent waters (Gulf of Oman, Persian Gulf within 100nm of Hormuz) between March 4 and April 4, 2026, as confirmed by CENTCOM, Lloyd's maritime intelligence, or two or more major wire services (Reuters, AP, AFP). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Sinks Iranian Warship — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can Stop
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
91%
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 2bffca104f8d (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (91%)
If wrong, the most likely reason is that Iran calculates Hormuz disruption would alienate China and India (its key remaining economic partners) and instead chooses to retaliate through proxy attacks in Iraq/Lebanon or cyberattacks that do not directly threaten global oil supply.
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 過信リスク: 91%で予測したが外れた
2. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
3. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Late April / Early May 2026Resolved: Will the prediction about 'America's Iran Strike — When Alliance Loyalty Overrides Stra' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 11% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if both chambers of Congress pass a joint resolution under the War Powers Act that explicitly restricts, terminates, or sets a deadline for U.S. military operations against Iran, and the resolution either is signed by the president or overrides a veto. NO if no such resolution passes both chambers, or if it is vetoed and the override fails. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAmerica's Iran Strike — When Alliance Loyalty Overrides Strategic LogicArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Late April / Early May 2026
Resolved: Will the prediction about 'America's Iran Strike — When Alliance Loyalty Overrides Stra' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if both chambers of Congress pass a joint resolution under the War Powers Act that explicitly restricts, terminates, or sets a deadline for U.S. military operations against Iran, and the resolution either is signed by the president or overrides a veto. NO if no such resolution passes both chambers, or if it is vetoed and the override fails. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
America's Iran Strike — When Alliance Loyalty Overrides Strategic Logic
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Base
11%
Market (Manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 76.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.06
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Base Scenario (11%)
If this prediction is wrong, the most likely reason is that Iranian retaliation causes sufficient American casualties to shift Republican senators toward supporting a bipartisan War Powers resolution, similar to how the Yemen debate shifted votes in 2018-2019.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US or China issue a formal diplomatic protest (official demarche or summoning of ambassador) regarding the South China Sea naval near-collision by 2026-03-08?Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic protest is defined as either: (1) the US State Department or Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issuing an official demarche to the other country's ambassador/embassy, or (2) either government summoning the other's ambassador for a formal protest meeting. Official spokesperson statements at press conferences do NOT count unless they explicitly state that a formal protest has been lodged. The protest must be confirmed by official government communication or credible news sources by 2026-03-08 23:59 UTC. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US or China issue a formal diplomatic protest (official demarche or summoning of ambassador) regarding the South China Sea naval near-collision by 2026-03-08?
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic protest is defined as either: (1) the US State Department or Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issuing an official demarche to the other country's ambassador/embassy, or (2) either government summoning the other's ambassador for a formal protest meeting. Official spokesperson statements at press conferences do NOT count unless they explicitly state that a formal protest has been lodged. The protest must be confirmed by official government communication or credible news sources by 2026-03-08 23:59 UTC. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 91.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: d45f16c3b5d3 (medium)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Taiwan conduct a named military exercise involving live-fire drills in response to the March 2026 drone incursions by March 20, 2026?Key Event: Taiwan's Drone Crisis — Beijing's Gray-Zone Escalation SpiraOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense officially announces and conducts a named military exercise (not routine patrols or scrambles, but a formally designated exercise involving live-fire components) between March 6 and March 20, 2026, explicitly or implicitly linked to the drone incursion threat. Confirmation via official MND press release, credible international media reporting (Reuters, AP, AFP), or official government statements. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan's Drone Crisis — Beijing's Gray-Zone Escalation Spiral Enters a New PhaseArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Taiwan conduct a named military exercise involving live-fire drills in response to the March 2026 drone incursions by March 20, 2026?
Key Event: Taiwan's Drone Crisis — Beijing's Gray-Zone Escalation Spira
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense officially announces and conducts a named military exercise (not routine patrols or scrambles, but a formally designated exercise involving live-fire components) between March 6 and March 20, 2026, explicitly or implicitly linked to the drone incursion threat. Confirmation via official MND press release, credible international media reporting (Reuters, AP, AFP), or official government statements. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan's Drone Crisis — Beijing's Gray-Zone Escalation Spiral Enters a New Phase
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 779798875254
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO officially announce additional troop deployments to Eastern Europe beyond the current ~40,000 reinforcement by March 15, 2026?Key Event: Geneva Talks Collapse — Nuclear Brinkmanship Locks the EscalOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO, the Pentagon, or any NATO member state's defense ministry officially announces new troop deployment orders (not rotations of existing forces) to NATO's eastern flank countries (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, or other Eastern European NATO members) between March 6 and March 15, 2026. The announcement must specify additional forces beyond the ~40,000 already deployed since January 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGeneva Talks Collapse — Nuclear Brinkmanship Locks the Escalation SpiralArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO officially announce additional troop deployments to Eastern Europe beyond the current ~40,000 reinforcement by March 15, 2026?
Key Event: Geneva Talks Collapse — Nuclear Brinkmanship Locks the Escal
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO, the Pentagon, or any NATO member state's defense ministry officially announces new troop deployment orders (not rotations of existing forces) to NATO's eastern flank countries (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, or other Eastern European NATO members) between March 6 and March 15, 2026. The announcement must specify additional forces beyond the ~40,000 already deployed since January 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Geneva Talks Collapse — Nuclear Brinkmanship Locks the Escalation Spiral
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 91.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 1ca1808940dd (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Professional-GradeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: At least 60 of the 200 largest US law firms (by Am Law 200 ranking) must have publicly announced, confirmed via industry surveys (e.g., ALM, Thomson Reuters), or been independently reported as having deployed GPT-6 or an equivalent advanced reasoning AI model in at least one core workflow (document review, legal research, contract analysis, or due diligence) by June 30, 2027. Pilot programs count if they involve at least one practice group; individual attorney usage does not count — firm-level deployment is required. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Professional-Grade LeapArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final13%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Professional-Grade
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least 60 of the 200 largest US law firms (by Am Law 200 ranking) must have publicly announced, confirmed via industry surveys (e.g., ALM, Thomson Reuters), or been independently reported as having deployed GPT-6 or an equivalent advanced reasoning AI model in at least one core workflow (document review, legal research, contract analysis, or due diligence) by June 30, 2027. Pilot programs count if they involve at least one practice group; individual attorney usage does not count — firm-level deployment is required. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Professional-Grade Leap
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final13%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
13%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the DOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (coingecko.com) must be $120,000.00 or above for the answer to be YES. Any price below $120,000.00 at that specific timestamp = NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Digital Gold PlaybookArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the D
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (coingecko.com) must be $120,000.00 or above for the answer to be YES. Any price below $120,000.00 at that specific timestamp = NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Digital Gold Playbook
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the U.S. House of Representatives pass the Iran war powers resolution by 2026-03-31?Key Event: War Powers Showdown — Congress's Shrinking Grip on MilitaryOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: The resolution passes if 218+ House members vote in favor of the war powers resolution that would curb further U.S. military action in Iran. A procedural tabling motion or failure to bring the resolution to a floor vote counts as failure to pass. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisWar Powers Showdown — Congress's Shrinking Grip on Military AuthorityArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the U.S. House of Representatives pass the Iran war powers resolution by 2026-03-31?
Key Event: War Powers Showdown — Congress's Shrinking Grip on Military
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: The resolution passes if 218+ House members vote in favor of the war powers resolution that would curb further U.S. military action in Iran. A procedural tabling motion or failure to bring the resolution to a floor vote counts as failure to pass. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
War Powers Showdown — Congress's Shrinking Grip on Military Authority
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 495166aba1a2 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: UK Mortgage Shock — How Iran War Risk Is Repricing British HOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: The Bank of England base rate as announced by the MPC is 4.50% or higher on June 30, 2026. A rate cut to 4.25% or below before this date resolves as NO. Rate unchanged at 4.50% or any increase resolves as YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUK Mortgage Shock — How Iran War Risk Is Repricing British Household DebtArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: UK Mortgage Shock — How Iran War Risk Is Repricing British H
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: The Bank of England base rate as announced by the MPC is 4.50% or higher on June 30, 2026. A rate cut to 4.25% or below before this date resolves as NO. Rate unchanged at 4.50% or any increase resolves as YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
UK Mortgage Shock — How Iran War Risk Is Repricing British Household Debt
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: UK Energy Bills and the Iran War — When Geopolitics Hits theOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the UK government announces a new or extended household energy support mechanism (such as a price guarantee, targeted rebate scheme, or emergency price cap modification) explicitly linked to or motivated by energy price increases caused by the Middle East/Iran conflict, on or before July 1, 2026. General welfare adjustments or pre-existing programs do not count — the scheme must be new or specifically expanded in response to the conflict-driven price surge. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUK Energy Bills and the Iran War — When Geopolitics Hits the Kitchen TableArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: UK Energy Bills and the Iran War — When Geopolitics Hits the
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the UK government announces a new or extended household energy support mechanism (such as a price guarantee, targeted rebate scheme, or emergency price cap modification) explicitly linked to or motivated by energy price increases caused by the Middle East/Iran conflict, on or before July 1, 2026. General welfare adjustments or pre-existing programs do not count — the scheme must be new or specifically expanded in response to the conflict-driven price surge. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
UK Energy Bills and the Iran War — When Geopolitics Hits the Kitchen Table
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Iran enrich uranium to 90%+ weapons-grade purity (as detected by IAEA) by 2026-09-30?Key Event: Iran's Leadership Vacuum — The Escalation Spiral of DecapitaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: IAEA officially reports detection of uranium enriched to 90% or higher purity at any Iranian facility. Confirmed by IAEA Board of Governors report or emergency briefing. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran's Leadership Vacuum — The Escalation Spiral of Decapitation StrategyArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Iran enrich uranium to 90%+ weapons-grade purity (as detected by IAEA) by 2026-09-30?
Key Event: Iran's Leadership Vacuum — The Escalation Spiral of Decapita
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: IAEA officially reports detection of uranium enriched to 90% or higher purity at any Iranian facility. Confirmed by IAEA Board of Governors report or emergency briefing. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran's Leadership Vacuum — The Escalation Spiral of Decapitation Strategy
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Spain formally authorize the use of Rota or Morón bases for US combat operations related to the Iran campaign by 2026-06-30?Key Event: Spain vs. White House — Alliance Coercion Meets European SovOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Official Spanish government authorization (written or publicly announced) permitting US military use of Rota Naval Station or Morón Air Base specifically for combat operations related to the US-Israel Iran campaign. Routine NATO operations and pre-existing non-combat missions do not count. Authorization must be explicit and publicly confirmed by the Spanish government. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSpain vs. White House — Alliance Coercion Meets European SovereigntyArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Spain formally authorize the use of Rota or Morón bases for US combat operations related to the Iran campaign by 2026-06-30?
Key Event: Spain vs. White House — Alliance Coercion Meets European Sov
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Official Spanish government authorization (written or publicly announced) permitting US military use of Rota Naval Station or Morón Air Base specifically for combat operations related to the US-Israel Iran campaign. Routine NATO operations and pre-existing non-combat missions do not count. Authorization must be explicit and publicly confirmed by the Spanish government. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Spain vs. White House — Alliance Coercion Meets European Sovereignty
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran Strikes Trigger Australia's Energy Déjà Vu — The ContagOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: The AER publishes its annual Default Market Offer (DMO) in May-June each year, effective July 1. A YES outcome requires the weighted average DMO increase across all distribution zones to be 15% or higher compared to the July 2025 DMO. The exact percentage is published in the AER's DMO Final Determination document. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Strikes Trigger Australia's Energy Déjà Vu — The Contagion Cascade ReturnsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final32%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran Strikes Trigger Australia's Energy Déjà Vu — The Contag
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: The AER publishes its annual Default Market Offer (DMO) in May-June each year, effective July 1. A YES outcome requires the weighted average DMO increase across all distribution zones to be 15% or higher compared to the July 2025 DMO. The exact percentage is published in the AER's DMO Final Determination document. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Strikes Trigger Australia's Energy Déjà Vu — The Contagion Cascade Returns
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final32%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
32%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 68.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.10
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran Strikes & Taiwan Drift — How US Overreach Hands China aOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 94% confidence➡ Verdict: China's Ministry of Commerce or relevant regulatory body officially announces new export licensing requirements, quota reductions, or outright export bans on any rare earth element or critical mineral (gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, graphite, or any of the 17 rare earth elements) between 2026-03-01 and 2026-06-30. The restriction must be a NEW measure, not a continuation of existing 2023-2025 controls. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Strikes & Taiwan Drift — How US Overreach Hands China a Strategic OpeningArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final32%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran Strikes & Taiwan Drift — How US Overreach Hands China a
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 94% confidence
➡ Verdict: China's Ministry of Commerce or relevant regulatory body officially announces new export licensing requirements, quota reductions, or outright export bans on any rare earth element or critical mineral (gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, graphite, or any of the 17 rare earth elements) between 2026-03-01 and 2026-06-30. The restriction must be a NEW measure, not a continuation of existing 2023-2025 controls. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Strikes & Taiwan Drift — How US Overreach Hands China a Strategic Opening
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final32%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
32%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 6.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 68.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.88) / market raw 0.10
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump vs. Banks on Crypto — The Regulatory Capture War for DOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: The U.S. Senate passes (by simple majority or 60-vote cloture) a standalone stablecoin bill or a broader crypto bill containing stablecoin provisions. The bill must pass the Senate floor vote — committee passage alone does not count. Passage of a continuing resolution or omnibus bill with stablecoin language attached counts as YES. → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOTrump vs. Banks on Crypto — The Regulatory Capture War for Digital Dollar DominanceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump vs. Banks on Crypto — The Regulatory Capture War for D
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: The U.S. Senate passes (by simple majority or 60-vote cloture) a standalone stablecoin bill or a broader crypto bill containing stablecoin provisions. The bill must pass the Senate floor vote — committee passage alone does not count. Passage of a continuing resolution or omnibus bill with stablecoin language attached counts as YES. → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Trump vs. Banks on Crypto — The Regulatory Capture War for Digital Dollar Dominance
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Iran Nuclear Talks: 'Progress Without Agreement' — StructOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if US and Iranian government representatives sign a written agreement on limiting nuclear development (including interim agreements, framework agreements, and joint statements with specific obligations). NO for agreements limited to prisoner exchanges, verbal agreements, or statements by intermediary countries alone. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Iran Nuclear Talks: 'Progress Without Agreement' — Structural Limits from ConflictTracker-only判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Iran Nuclear Talks: 'Progress Without Agreement' — Struct
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if US and Iranian government representatives sign a written agreement on limiting nuclear development (including interim agreements, framework agreements, and joint statements with specific obligations). NO for agreements limited to prisoner exchanges, verbal agreements, or statements by intermediary countries alone. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Iran Nuclear Talks: 'Progress Without Agreement' — Structural Limits from Conflict
Tracker-only
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the United States and Iran reach a formal interim nuclear agreement (including any written framework, joint statement, or signed document committing to enrichment caps and sanctions relief) by 2026-09-30?Key Event: US-Iran Nuclear Talks Stall in Oman — The Escalation SpiralOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal interim agreement is defined as any publicly announced written document signed or endorsed by both US and Iranian officials that includes specific commitments on enrichment levels and sanctions relief. Joint statements of intent, frameworks for future talks, or verbal agreements do not qualify. The agreement must be reported by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) as a signed or formalized deal. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Iran Nuclear Talks Stall in Oman — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the United States and Iran reach a formal interim nuclear agreement (including any written framework, joint statement, or signed document committing to enrichment caps and sanctions relief) by 2026-09-30?
Key Event: US-Iran Nuclear Talks Stall in Oman — The Escalation Spiral
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal interim agreement is defined as any publicly announced written document signed or endorsed by both US and Iranian officials that includes specific commitments on enrichment levels and sanctions relief. Joint statements of intent, frameworks for future talks, or verbal agreements do not qualify. The agreement must be reported by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) as a signed or formalized deal. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Iran Nuclear Talks Stall in Oman — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US or China file a formal diplomatic protest over the March 2026 South China Sea naval near-collision by 2026-03-08?Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — Escalation Could Sink US-ChOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic protest is defined as an official diplomatic note (demarche) delivered through embassy channels, or a public announcement by either foreign ministry stating that a formal protest has been lodged. Strongly worded press statements or spokesperson comments alone do not qualify — the protest must be characterized as 'formal' by the issuing government. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Near-Collision — Escalation Could Sink US-China Trade TalksArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US or China file a formal diplomatic protest over the March 2026 South China Sea naval near-collision by 2026-03-08?
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — Escalation Could Sink US-Ch
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic protest is defined as an official diplomatic note (demarche) delivered through embassy channels, or a public announcement by either foreign ministry stating that a formal protest has been lodged. Strongly worded press statements or spokesperson comments alone do not qualify — the protest must be characterized as 'formal' by the issuing government. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Near-Collision — Escalation Could Sink US-China Trade Talks
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 665fed7205ba (medium)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF receive SEC approval by 2026-12-31?Key Event: Morgan Stanley's Crypto Custody — Wall Street's Point of NoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: SEC publishes approval order for a Morgan Stanley-branded spot Bitcoin ETF (not a third-party ETF distributed by Morgan Stanley). The product must be a spot Bitcoin ETF, not a futures-based or synthetic product. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisMorgan Stanley's Crypto Custody — Wall Street's Point of No ReturnArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF receive SEC approval by 2026-12-31?
Key Event: Morgan Stanley's Crypto Custody — Wall Street's Point of No
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: SEC publishes approval order for a Morgan Stanley-branded spot Bitcoin ETF (not a third-party ETF distributed by Morgan Stanley). The product must be a spot Bitcoin ETF, not a futures-based or synthetic product. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Morgan Stanley's Crypto Custody — Wall Street's Point of No Return
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump Threatens Large-Scale Attack on Iran — 'OverextensionOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the US Department of Defense or the President officially confirms the execution of a direct US military attack on facilities within Iranian territory. NO for proxy attacks (e.g., attacks solely by Israel) or cyberattacks. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump Threatens Large-Scale Attack on Iran — 'Overextension of Power' Reshapes MideastTracker-only予測された事象が発生 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump Threatens Large-Scale Attack on Iran — 'Overextension
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the US Department of Defense or the President officially confirms the execution of a direct US military attack on facilities within Iranian territory. NO for proxy attacks (e.g., attacks solely by Israel) or cyberattacks. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump Threatens Large-Scale Attack on Iran — 'Overextension of Power' Reshapes Mideast
Tracker-only
予測された事象が発生 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 予測された事象が発生 (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO officially announce additional troop deployments to Eastern Europe by 2026-03-16?Key Event: Geneva Talks Collapse — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot ExOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 96% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO (through SACEUR, NATO Secretary General, or any member-state defense ministry acting under NATO coordination) issues a public statement or press release announcing new or additional troop deployments, force rotations, or enhanced forward presence measures in Eastern European member states (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, Bulgaria, Slovakia, or Hungary) between March 6 and March 16, 2026. Routine rotation announcements that were scheduled before the Geneva collapse do not count — the announcement must reference the changed security environment, Russian threats, or the diplomatic breakdown as justification. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGeneva Talks Collapse — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot ExitArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO officially announce additional troop deployments to Eastern Europe by 2026-03-16?
Key Event: Geneva Talks Collapse — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot Ex
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 96% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO (through SACEUR, NATO Secretary General, or any member-state defense ministry acting under NATO coordination) issues a public statement or press release announcing new or additional troop deployments, force rotations, or enhanced forward presence measures in Eastern European member states (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, Bulgaria, Slovakia, or Hungary) between March 6 and March 16, 2026. Routine rotation announcements that were scheduled before the Geneva collapse do not count — the announcement must reference the changed security environment, Russian threats, or the diplomatic breakdown as justification. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Geneva Talks Collapse — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot Exit
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 96.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=xi-jinping/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:xi-jinpingentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 4049c1f7898e (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the United States conduct airstrikes on Iranian territory by 2026-06-01?Key Event: Trump Signals Massive Iran Strike — The Escalation Spiral ThOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: At least one confirmed U.S. military airstrike or cruise missile strike hitting a target within the internationally recognized borders of Iran (not proxy targets in Iraq/Syria/Yemen). Confirmed by U.S. Department of Defense statement or multiple credible international news agencies. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump Signals Massive Iran Strike — The Escalation Spiral That Reshapes the Middle EastArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the United States conduct airstrikes on Iranian territory by 2026-06-01?
Key Event: Trump Signals Massive Iran Strike — The Escalation Spiral Th
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least one confirmed U.S. military airstrike or cruise missile strike hitting a target within the internationally recognized borders of Iran (not proxy targets in Iraq/Syria/Yemen). Confirmed by U.S. Department of Defense statement or multiple credible international news agencies. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump Signals Massive Iran Strike — The Escalation Spiral That Reshapes the Middle East
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trumpdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Professional ClassOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if 3 or more AmLaw 10 firms (Kirkland & Ellis, Latham & Watkins, DLA Piper, Baker McKenzie, Skadden, etc.) issue public statements, press releases, or confirmed media reports indicating a 15%+ reduction in incoming associate hiring specifically attributed to AI/automation capabilities by June 30, 2027. Voluntary attrition, economic downturn-driven cuts, or cuts not publicly linked to AI do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Professional Class Disruption BeginsArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final47%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Professional Class
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if 3 or more AmLaw 10 firms (Kirkland & Ellis, Latham & Watkins, DLA Piper, Baker McKenzie, Skadden, etc.) issue public statements, press releases, or confirmed media reports indicating a 15%+ reduction in incoming associate hiring specifically attributed to AI/automation capabilities by June 30, 2027. Voluntary attrition, economic downturn-driven cuts, or cuts not publicly linked to AI do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Professional Class Disruption Begins
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final47%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
47%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 47.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.28
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Tinderbox — Risk of 'Accidental Collision' FOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Official confirmation by the US Department of Defense or the Chinese Ministry of National Defense of a physical contact (collision) or clash between US and Chinese warships or military aircraft in the South China Sea. Excludes water cannon exchanges, laser illuminations, and unsafe intercepts. Only incidents involving contact resulting in physical damage to ships or aircraft will be counted. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Tinderbox — Risk of 'Accidental Collision' From Concurrent US-China DrillsTracker-only判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Tinderbox — Risk of 'Accidental Collision' F
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Official confirmation by the US Department of Defense or the Chinese Ministry of National Defense of a physical contact (collision) or clash between US and Chinese warships or military aircraft in the South China Sea. Excludes water cannon exchanges, laser illuminations, and unsafe intercepts. Only incidents involving contact resulting in physical damage to ships or aircraft will be counted. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Tinderbox — Risk of 'Accidental Collision' From Concurrent US-China Drills
Tracker-only
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=us-china-trade-war
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:us-china-trade-warpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will 10 or more US military personnel be killed in a single attack by Iran-backed forces in the Middle East by 2026-12-31?Key Event: US Military Casualties as Trump's Red Line — The Feedback LoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reports from the US Department of Defense confirming 10 or more US military fatalities in a single attack (within 24 hours, same operational theater) attributed to Iran-backed militia groups, Houthi forces, or other Iranian proxy organizations. The count must be from a single incident or coordinated attack, not cumulative. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Military Casualties as Trump's Red Line — The Feedback Loop Between Battlefield Losses and Presidential Decision-MakingArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will 10 or more US military personnel be killed in a single attack by Iran-backed forces in the Middle East by 2026-12-31?
Key Event: US Military Casualties as Trump's Red Line — The Feedback Lo
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reports from the US Department of Defense confirming 10 or more US military fatalities in a single attack (within 24 hours, same operational theater) attributed to Iran-backed militia groups, Houthi forces, or other Iranian proxy organizations. The count must be from a single incident or coordinated attack, not cumulative. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Military Casualties as Trump's Red Line — The Feedback Loop Between Battlefield Losses and Presidential Decision-Making
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: UK Energy Bills & Iran War — The Geopolitical Tax HouseholdsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: The UK government (HM Treasury or DESNZ) officially announces a new or expanded household energy support program with a total committed cost of at least £2 billion, explicitly linked to energy price increases caused by the Middle East/Iran conflict. Rebranding of existing programs without additional funding does not count. The announcement must be made before 2026-07-01. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUK Energy Bills & Iran War — The Geopolitical Tax Households Cannot EscapeArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: UK Energy Bills & Iran War — The Geopolitical Tax Households
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: The UK government (HM Treasury or DESNZ) officially announces a new or expanded household energy support program with a total committed cost of at least £2 billion, explicitly linked to energy price increases caused by the Middle East/Iran conflict. Rebranding of existing programs without additional funding does not count. The announcement must be made before 2026-07-01. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
UK Energy Bills & Iran War — The Geopolitical Tax Households Cannot Escape
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Russia's oil and gas revenue exceed 12 trillion rubles in fiscal year 2026 (compared to approximately 10.5 trillion in 2025)?Key Event: Russia's Petro-Lifeline — How Middle East War Rescues a FlagOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: Russia's Ministry of Finance publishes annual budget execution data. If reported oil and gas revenue (neftyanye i gazovye dokhody) for calendar year 2026 exceeds 12 trillion rubles, the answer is YES. If it is 12 trillion or below, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Petro-Lifeline — How Middle East War Rescues a Flagging War MachineArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Russia's oil and gas revenue exceed 12 trillion rubles in fiscal year 2026 (compared to approximately 10.5 trillion in 2025)?
Key Event: Russia's Petro-Lifeline — How Middle East War Rescues a Flag
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: Russia's Ministry of Finance publishes annual budget execution data. If reported oil and gas revenue (neftyanye i gazovye dokhody) for calendar year 2026 exceeds 12 trillion rubles, the answer is YES. If it is 12 trillion or below, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Petro-Lifeline — How Middle East War Rescues a Flagging War Machine
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/xi-jinping
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:xi-jinping
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran Overreach Trap — How US Middle East Escalation Hands ChOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announces new export control regulations or license requirements on any rare earth element, antimony compound, tungsten product, or other mineral explicitly used in defense applications, beyond the gallium/germanium/graphite controls already implemented as of March 2026. The announcement must be published in an official Chinese government gazette or confirmed by Reuters/Bloomberg. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Overreach Trap — How US Middle East Escalation Hands China a Strategic GiftArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final72%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran Overreach Trap — How US Middle East Escalation Hands Ch
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announces new export control regulations or license requirements on any rare earth element, antimony compound, tungsten product, or other mineral explicitly used in defense applications, beyond the gallium/germanium/graphite controls already implemented as of March 2026. The announcement must be published in an official Chinese government gazette or confirmed by Reuters/Bloomberg. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Overreach Trap — How US Middle East Escalation Hands China a Strategic Gift
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final72%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
72%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/iran/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:iranentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea's ICBM Revival — The Escalation Spiral Japan CanOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A North Korean ballistic missile classified as ICBM-class (range >5,500 km) flies over any part of Japanese sovereign territory (including Okinawa prefecture) as confirmed by Japan's Ministry of Defense official statement. Missiles landing in the Sea of Japan or EEZ without overflying land do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea's ICBM Revival — The Escalation Spiral Japan Cannot IgnoreArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final12%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea's ICBM Revival — The Escalation Spiral Japan Can
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A North Korean ballistic missile classified as ICBM-class (range >5,500 km) flies over any part of Japanese sovereign territory (including Okinawa prefecture) as confirmed by Japan's Ministry of Defense official statement. Missiles landing in the Sea of Japan or EEZ without overflying land do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea's ICBM Revival — The Escalation Spiral Japan Cannot Ignore
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final12%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
12%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/north-korea / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:north-koreadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump vs. Banks on Stablecoins — The Regulatory Capture BattOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: The U.S. Senate passes a stablecoin regulatory bill (GENIUS Act or successor legislation with substantially similar provisions) with at least 60 votes and sends it to the House. A committee-only passage does not count — it must pass the full Senate. The bill must include provisions allowing non-bank entities to issue stablecoins (even if with restrictions). A bank-only framework does not count as the GENIUS Act passing. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump vs. Banks on Stablecoins — The Regulatory Capture Battle for Digital Dollar DominanceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final11%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump vs. Banks on Stablecoins — The Regulatory Capture Batt
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: The U.S. Senate passes a stablecoin regulatory bill (GENIUS Act or successor legislation with substantially similar provisions) with at least 60 votes and sends it to the House. A committee-only passage does not count — it must pass the full Senate. The bill must include provisions allowing non-bank entities to issue stablecoins (even if with restrictions). A bank-only framework does not count as the GENIUS Act passing. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump vs. Banks on Stablecoins — The Regulatory Capture Battle for Digital Dollar Dominance
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final11%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
11%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US impose specific trade restrictions or tariffs targeting Spanish exports by 2026-06-06?Key Event: Spain vs. the White House — NATO's Iran Fault Line Cracks OpOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the US government announces, signs, or implements any new tariffs, import duties, quotas, or trade restrictions specifically targeting Spanish goods (not general EU-wide measures) between March 6, 2026 and June 6, 2026. Must be an official government action (executive order, USTR announcement, or Federal Register notice), not just a verbal threat. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSpain vs. the White House — NATO's Iran Fault Line Cracks OpenArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US impose specific trade restrictions or tariffs targeting Spanish exports by 2026-06-06?
Key Event: Spain vs. the White House — NATO's Iran Fault Line Cracks Op
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the US government announces, signs, or implements any new tariffs, import duties, quotas, or trade restrictions specifically targeting Spanish goods (not general EU-wide measures) between March 6, 2026 and June 6, 2026. Must be an official government action (executive order, USTR announcement, or Federal Register notice), not just a verbal threat. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Spain vs. the White House — NATO's Iran Fault Line Cracks Open
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/nato / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:natodynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AI-Weaponized Public Opinion — China's Info War Against JapaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Whether a law including penalties for the creation and dissemination of AI-generated disinformation is passed and enacted by the Japanese Diet (House of Representatives and House of Councillors) by December 31, 2026. Excludes guidelines or cabinet decisions; YES only if enacted as a law (with a law number). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAI-Weaponized Public Opinion — China's Info War Against Japan & Platform DefenseTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AI-Weaponized Public Opinion — China's Info War Against Japa
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Whether a law including penalties for the creation and dissemination of AI-generated disinformation is passed and enacted by the Japanese Diet (House of Representatives and House of Councillors) by December 31, 2026. Excludes guidelines or cabinet decisions; YES only if enacted as a law (with a law number). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AI-Weaponized Public Opinion — China's Info War Against Japan & Platform Defense
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Japan enact new legislation specifically addressing AI-enabled foreign influence operations by 2026-12-31?Key Event: AI-Weaponized Disinformation — China's ChatGPT Gambit AgainsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: Japan's Diet passes a new law or significant amendment to existing law that specifically addresses AI-generated or AI-assisted foreign influence operations, including provisions for platform accountability, detection requirements, or penalties. General cybersecurity updates that do not specifically mention AI-enabled influence operations do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAI-Weaponized Disinformation — China's ChatGPT Gambit Against Japan's PM TakaichiArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Japan enact new legislation specifically addressing AI-enabled foreign influence operations by 2026-12-31?
Key Event: AI-Weaponized Disinformation — China's ChatGPT Gambit Agains
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: Japan's Diet passes a new law or significant amendment to existing law that specifically addresses AI-generated or AI-assisted foreign influence operations, including provisions for platform accountability, detection requirements, or penalties. General cybersecurity updates that do not specifically mention AI-enabled influence operations do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AI-Weaponized Disinformation — China's ChatGPT Gambit Against Japan's PM Takaichi
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/japan/openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:japanentity:openai
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Israel Military Action Against Iran — Structural NecessitOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the passage of commercial ships (including tankers) through the Strait of Hormuz is completely halted for 7 consecutive days or more. NO for partial obstruction or temporary delays. Judgment will be based on reports from major media outlets such as Lloyd's List, Reuters, and BBC. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Israel Military Action Against Iran — Structural Necessity of Escalation SpiralTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Israel Military Action Against Iran — Structural Necessit
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the passage of commercial ships (including tankers) through the Strait of Hormuz is completely halted for 7 consecutive days or more. NO for partial obstruction or temporary delays. Judgment will be based on reports from major media outlets such as Lloyd's List, Reuters, and BBC. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Israel Military Action Against Iran — Structural Necessity of Escalation Spiral
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 35e979ecfb3b (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Iran launch ballistic missiles directly at Israeli territory in retaliation for the February 28, 2026 US-Israel strike by March 15, 2026?Key Event: US-Israel Strike Iran — The Escalation Spiral That ReshapesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 96% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, NHK) of ballistic missile launches from Iranian territory targeting Israel, regardless of interception success. Proxy-launched missiles (Houthis, Hezbollah) do not count — must be missiles fired from Iranian soil by Iranian forces. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Israel Strike Iran — The Escalation Spiral That Reshapes the Middle East OrderArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Iran launch ballistic missiles directly at Israeli territory in retaliation for the February 28, 2026 US-Israel strike by March 15, 2026?
Key Event: US-Israel Strike Iran — The Escalation Spiral That Reshapes
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 96% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, NHK) of ballistic missile launches from Iranian territory targeting Israel, regardless of interception success. Proxy-launched missiles (Houthis, Hezbollah) do not count — must be missiles fired from Iranian soil by Iranian forces. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Israel Strike Iran — The Escalation Spiral That Reshapes the Middle East Order
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 4.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.92)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 872d9447a654 (medium)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: BOJ's Ueda's Iran "Watch" Remark — Oil Shock & Monetary PoliOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the closing price of WTI crude oil futures (NYMEX, front-month contract) reaches $100 or more per barrel on even one day by June 30, 2026. NO if it never reaches $100. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBOJ's Ueda's Iran "Watch" Remark — Oil Shock & Monetary Policy Squeeze BeginsTracker-only判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: BOJ's Ueda's Iran "Watch" Remark — Oil Shock & Monetary Poli
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the closing price of WTI crude oil futures (NYMEX, front-month contract) reaches $100 or more per barrel on even one day by June 30, 2026. NO if it never reaches $100. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
BOJ's Ueda's Iran "Watch" Remark — Oil Shock & Monetary Policy Squeeze Begins
Tracker-only
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the BOJ raise its policy interest rate above 0.5% by 2026-07-31?Key Event: BOJ's Iran Dilemma — When Geopolitical Oil Shocks Collide wiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: The BOJ's policy rate (uncollateralized overnight call rate target) is above 0.50% as of July 31, 2026, as announced in an official BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting statement. A rate at 0.50% or below = NO. A rate above 0.50% (e.g., 0.75%) = YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBOJ's Iran Dilemma — When Geopolitical Oil Shocks Collide with Monetary NormalizationArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the BOJ raise its policy interest rate above 0.5% by 2026-07-31?
Key Event: BOJ's Iran Dilemma — When Geopolitical Oil Shocks Collide wi
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: The BOJ's policy rate (uncollateralized overnight call rate target) is above 0.50% as of July 31, 2026, as announced in an official BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting statement. A rate at 0.50% or below = NO. A rate above 0.50% (e.g., 0.75%) = YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
BOJ's Iran Dilemma — When Geopolitical Oil Shocks Collide with Monetary Normalization
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will either the United States or China issue a formal diplomatic protest (defined as an official statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or State Department explicitly using the term 'protest' or 'strong condemnation' with a demand for specific remedial action) over this naval near-collision by 2026-03-08?Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if either the US State Department or China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues a formal statement explicitly described as a 'diplomatic protest' or 'formal protest' with a specific demand for action (such as cessation of FONOPs or withdrawal of vessels). Standard press conference expressions of 'concern' or 'strong opposition' do NOT qualify unless they explicitly use the term 'protest' and include actionable demands. Source: official State Department/MFA transcripts and press releases. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will either the United States or China issue a formal diplomatic protest (defined as an official statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or State Department explicitly using the term 'protest' or 'strong condemnation' with a demand for specific remedial action) over this naval near-collision by 2026-03-08?
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if either the US State Department or China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues a formal statement explicitly described as a 'diplomatic protest' or 'formal protest' with a specific demand for action (such as cessation of FONOPs or withdrawal of vessels). Standard press conference expressions of 'concern' or 'strong opposition' do NOT qualify unless they explicitly use the term 'protest' and include actionable demands. Source: official State Department/MFA transcripts and press releases. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 116aa919c3c1 (medium)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO announce additional troop deployments to Eastern Europe (beyond previously scheduled rotations) by 2026-03-09?Key Event: Geneva Talks Collapse — Nuclear Brinkmanship Locks the EscalOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO or any individual NATO member officially announces new troop deployments to Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltic states, Romania, or Bulgaria) that are explicitly described as additional to or accelerating previously planned rotation schedules. Routine rotations completing on schedule do not count. The announcement must come from an official NATO or member-state defense ministry source. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGeneva Talks Collapse — Nuclear Brinkmanship Locks the Escalation SpiralArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO announce additional troop deployments to Eastern Europe (beyond previously scheduled rotations) by 2026-03-09?
Key Event: Geneva Talks Collapse — Nuclear Brinkmanship Locks the Escal
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO or any individual NATO member officially announces new troop deployments to Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltic states, Romania, or Bulgaria) that are explicitly described as additional to or accelerating previously planned rotation schedules. Routine rotations completing on schedule do not count. The announcement must come from an official NATO or member-state defense ministry source. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Geneva Talks Collapse — Nuclear Brinkmanship Locks the Escalation Spiral
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 64f278201e1e (medium)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Israel Strike on Iran — International Law's Legitimacy CrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A binding UNSC resolution (not a presidential statement) specifically addressing the US-Israel military operation against Iran is adopted with no veto from any P5 member. Draft resolutions that are vetoed do not count. The resolution must reference the Iran strikes specifically, not be a general Middle East resolution. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Israel Strike on Iran — International Law's Legitimacy Crisis DeepensArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final32%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Israel Strike on Iran — International Law's Legitimacy Cr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A binding UNSC resolution (not a presidential statement) specifically addressing the US-Israel military operation against Iran is adopted with no veto from any P5 member. Draft resolutions that are vetoed do not count. The resolution must reference the Iran strikes specifically, not be a general Middle East resolution. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Israel Strike on Iran — International Law's Legitimacy Crisis Deepens
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final32%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
32%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 68.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.10
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israel
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — When AI Outthinks the POur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: At least 3 firms ranked in the Am Law 50 (2026 ranking) must have publicly announced (via press release, news interview, or firm website) the integration of GPT-6 or equivalent OpenAI reasoning model into workflows that directly support client-facing legal analysis, research, or advisory work — not limited to back-office or internal use only. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — When AI Outthinks the Professional ClassArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final47%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — When AI Outthinks the P
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least 3 firms ranked in the Am Law 50 (2026 ranking) must have publicly announced (via press release, news interview, or firm website) the integration of GPT-6 or equivalent OpenAI reasoning model into workflows that directly support client-facing legal analysis, research, or advisory work — not limited to back-office or internal use only. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — When AI Outthinks the Professional Class
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final47%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
47%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 47.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83) / market raw 0.28
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Ethereum's spot price exceed $7,000 at any point before 2026-07-01?Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping DeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: ETH/USD spot price on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap reaches or exceeds $7,000.00 at any point between 2026-03-06 and 2026-07-01 (inclusive). A single daily close above $7,000 is sufficient. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisEthereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping DeFi Capital FlowsArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Ethereum's spot price exceed $7,000 at any point before 2026-07-01?
Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping De
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: ETH/USD spot price on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap reaches or exceeds $7,000.00 at any point between 2026-03-06 and 2026-07-01 (inclusive). A single daily close above $7,000 is sufficient. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping DeFi Capital Flows
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the House pass a war powers resolution to curb U.S. military action against Iran by 2026-03-31?Key Event: Congress vs. Commander-in-Chief — War Powers Showdown Over IOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: The House of Representatives holds a recorded vote on a war powers resolution specifically addressing U.S. military action against Iran, and the resolution receives a majority of votes (218+) in favor. If no vote is held, or the resolution fails to reach a majority, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisCongress vs. Commander-in-Chief — War Powers Showdown Over Iran StrikesArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the House pass a war powers resolution to curb U.S. military action against Iran by 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Congress vs. Commander-in-Chief — War Powers Showdown Over I
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: The House of Representatives holds a recorded vote on a war powers resolution specifically addressing U.S. military action against Iran, and the resolution receives a majority of votes (218+) in favor. If no vote is held, or the resolution fails to reach a majority, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Congress vs. Commander-in-Chief — War Powers Showdown Over Iran Strikes
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: df1828760228 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AI Chooses Bitcoin as 'Best Money' — A Hegemony War UnveiledOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 27% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the BPI AI model study (the study in which 6 AIs chose Bitcoin as the best money) is mentioned by a member of Congress or a witness in the transcripts of a US Congressional hearing, floor debate, or committee meeting. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAI Chooses Bitcoin as 'Best Money' — A Hegemony War Unveiled by 6 AI Model SurveyTracker-only判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AI Chooses Bitcoin as 'Best Money' — A Hegemony War Unveiled
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the BPI AI model study (the study in which 6 AIs chose Bitcoin as the best money) is mentioned by a member of Congress or a witness in the transcripts of a US Congressional hearing, floor debate, or committee meeting. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AI Chooses Bitcoin as 'Best Money' — A Hegemony War Unveiled by 6 AI Model Survey
Tracker-only
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: 2027-2028Resolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 47% confidence(Base 47% + Bear 25%) = 基本シナリオ 47%➡ Verdict: Any of {DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic} makes a credible public claim of AGI achievement with supporting independent evaluation before Dec 31, 2028 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAGI Timeline — Will DeepMind or OpenAI Claim AGI by 2028?Tracker-only基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌Manifold final58%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: 2027-2028
Resolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 47% confidence
(Base 47% + Bear 25%) = 基本シナリオ 47%
➡ Verdict: Any of {DeepMind, OpenAI, Anthropic} makes a credible public claim of AGI achievement with supporting independent evaluation before Dec 31, 2028 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AGI Timeline — Will DeepMind or OpenAI Claim AGI by 2028?
Tracker-only
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Manifold final58%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
25%
Base
47%
Bull
28%
Market (Manifold, pre-resolution)
58%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.5% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 42.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14) / market raw 0.34
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai/google
Referenced knowledge
entity:openaientity:google
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (28%)
GPT-7/Gemini 3 capability leap produces system meeting AGI criteria. Corporations and governments officially recognize it. Announcement in H1 2028.
Base (47%)
AGI definition debate intensifies by end of 2028, but no official claim. 'AGI-equivalent' systems emerge, but evaluation standards remain fragmented.
Bear (25%)
AI winter warning signs: compute costs, power constraints, regulation slow AI progress. By 2028, generality remains at current GPT levels.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Q3-Q4 2026Resolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 楽観シナリオ 48% confidence(Base 33% + Bear 19%) = 楽観シナリオ 48%➡ Verdict: Ethereum spot price (Coinbase) closes above $10,000 on any day before Dec 31, 2027 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisEthereum $10,000 — The Deflationary Spiral Meets TradFiTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Q3-Q4 2026
Resolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 楽観シナリオ 48% confidence
(Base 33% + Bear 19%) = 楽観シナリオ 48%
➡ Verdict: Ethereum spot price (Coinbase) closes above $10,000 on any day before Dec 31, 2027 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Ethereum $10,000 — The Deflationary Spiral Meets TradFi
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
19%
Base
33%
Bull
48%
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 48.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.27)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum/eu / domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumentity:eudomain:crypto
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
SEC approved Ethereum ETF staking in 2026. Event occurred.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (48%)
ETF staking unlocked, institutional DeFi adoption, L2 ecosystem explosion. ETH 10% annual deflation creates scarcity. Breaks $10K.
Base (33%)
ETH ranges $5,000-$8,000. BTC dominance stays high, ETH underperforms relatively. $10K reached after 2027.
Bear (19%)
Solana/other L1s erode Ethereum's share. L2 fragmentation reduces ETH value capture. Returns below $3,000.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Q1-Q2 2027Resolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 楽観シナリオ 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian(Base 28% + Bear 10%) = 楽観シナリオ 62%➡ Verdict: FSA officially approves at least one Bitcoin spot ETF for retail investors in Japan before Dec 31, 2028 → ❌ Missed❓ Japan approves BTC ETF by 2028?🏛 Polymarket Consensus (at pub)YES 55%55% of prediction market capital bets on YESJapan Crypto ETF — The 2,200 Trillion Yen AwakeningTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final55%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Q1-Q2 2027
Resolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 楽観シナリオ 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian
(Base 28% + Bear 10%) = 楽観シナリオ 62%
➡ Verdict: FSA officially approves at least one Bitcoin spot ETF for retail investors in Japan before Dec 31, 2028 → ❌ Missed
❓ Japan approves BTC ETF by 2028?
🏛 Polymarket Consensus (at pub)YES 55%
55% of prediction market capital bets on YES
Japan Crypto ETF — The 2,200 Trillion Yen Awakening
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final55%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
10%
Base
28%
Bull
62%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
55%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 45.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14) / market raw 0.30
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/bitcoin / domain=crypto
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:bitcoindomain:crypto
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: crypto domain avg Brier is 0.1818. Keep confidence conservative
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Japan FSA published crypto ETF framework public consultation in 2026.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (62%)
FSA approves BTC ETF framework in 2027, multiple ETFs (Nomura, Daiwa, SBI) list by H1 2028. 1% of ¥2,200T household assets flows into crypto via ETF.
Base (28%)
ETF approval framework established by end of 2028, but retail ETF listings delayed to 2029+. Institutional ETP gets approved.
Bear (10%)
Global regulatory tightening (G20 agreement) or domestic political change causes FSA policy reversal. No approval within 2028.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Q2 2026Resolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 62% confidence⚡ ALPHA +54pt (vs market)(Base 62% + Bear 30%) = 基本シナリオ 62%➡ Verdict: A binding international AI governance treaty signed and ratified by US, EU, UK, and China before Dec 31, 2028 → ❌ Missed❓ Global binding AI treaty ratified by 2028?🏛 Polymarket ↗ Consensus (at pub)NO 8%8% of prediction market capital bets on NOGlobal AI Governance Treaty — The Race Before the PrecipiceTracker-only基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final8%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Q2 2026
Resolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 62% confidence⚡ ALPHA +54pt (vs market)
(Base 62% + Bear 30%) = 基本シナリオ 62%
➡ Verdict: A binding international AI governance treaty signed and ratified by US, EU, UK, and China before Dec 31, 2028 → ❌ Missed
❓ Global binding AI treaty ratified by 2028?
🏛 Polymarket ↗ Consensus (at pub)NO 8%
8% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Global AI Governance Treaty — The Race Before the Precipice
Tracker-only
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final8%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
30%
Base
62%
Bull
8%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
8%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 8.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14) / market raw 0.85
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
AI Seoul Summit concluded with outcome statements in 2026.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (8%)
Concrete AGI runaway risk (major cyberattack, AI-triggered financial collapse) creates mutual crisis, emergency treaty talks begin. Minimal common norms form basis of treaty.
Base (62%)
Bletchley successor 'AI Safety Summit' held biannually but produces only joint statements, not binding treaties. US-China bilateral safety talks as consolation prize.
Bear (30%)
Taiwan conflict escalation/trade war deterioration eliminates AI cooperation forum. Countries establish incompatible national AI standards. Fragmentation accelerates.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: 2026-2027 monthlyResolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 50% confidence(Base 50% + Bear 20%) = 基本シナリオ 50%➡ Verdict: US 10-year Treasury yield (daily close) exceeds 6.50% on any business day before Dec 31, 2027 (per Bloomberg/FRED data) → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Debt Crisis 2027 — When the Bond Market Breaks Before the Fed DoesTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Manifold final74%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: 2026-2027 monthly
Resolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 50% confidence
(Base 50% + Bear 20%) = 基本シナリオ 50%
➡ Verdict: US 10-year Treasury yield (daily close) exceeds 6.50% on any business day before Dec 31, 2027 (per Bloomberg/FRED data) → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Debt Crisis 2027 — When the Bond Market Breaks Before the Fed Does
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Manifold final74%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
20%
Base
50%
Bull
30%
Market (Manifold, pre-resolution)
74%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 42.8% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 74.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.33) / market raw 0.07
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (30%)
Inflation resurgence + deficit expansion + foreign divestment (China, Japan) combine to push yields past 6.5%. Fed forced to reverse QT with emergency QE.
Base (50%)
Yields range 5-6%. Fed resumes rate cuts in 2027, preventing 6.5% breach. Fiscal problem 'recognized but unaddressed' — classic extend-and-pretend.
Bear (20%)
Recession causes revenue drop + spending surge → yields fall sharply (flight to safety), not rise. Risk-off Treasury buying brings yields back to 3-4%.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Q1-Q2 2026Resolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 基本シナリオ 65% confidence⚡ ALPHA +57pt (vs market)(Base 65% + Bear 27%) = 基本シナリオ 65%➡ Verdict: Chinese military forces maintain continuous blockade of Taiwan's major ports (blocking international cargo ships) for 48+ consecutive hours before Dec 31, 2027 → ❌ Missed❓ China blockades Taiwan before end of 2027?🏛 Polymarket Consensus (at pub)NO 8%8% of prediction market capital bets on NOChina's Taiwan Blockade — The Gray Zone Before the Red LineTracker-only基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final8%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Q1-Q2 2026
Resolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 基本シナリオ 65% confidence⚡ ALPHA +57pt (vs market)
(Base 65% + Bear 27%) = 基本シナリオ 65%
➡ Verdict: Chinese military forces maintain continuous blockade of Taiwan's major ports (blocking international cargo ships) for 48+ consecutive hours before Dec 31, 2027 → ❌ Missed
❓ China blockades Taiwan before end of 2027?
🏛 Polymarket Consensus (at pub)NO 8%
8% of prediction market capital bets on NO
China's Taiwan Blockade — The Gray Zone Before the Red Line
Tracker-only
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final8%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
27%
Base
65%
Bull
8%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
8%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 65.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 8.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.12) / market raw 0.85
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Taiwan 2026 presidential policy statements on sovereignty were made.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (8%)
Taiwan independence declaration or US military 'fortification' provides pretext for blockade. Semiconductor supply chain severed. Global economic panic.
Base (65%)
China repeats military exercises but no actual blockade. Gray zone tactics (cyber, disinformation, economic pressure) remain primary tools. Taiwan Strait 'hot but not exploding.'
Bear (27%)
Chinese domestic crisis (property collapse, unemployment spike) drives Xi to nationalist escalation. No formal declaration but de facto partial blockade of certain routes.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Q4 2026Resolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.Our Conclusion (at Publication)● 楽観シナリオ 70% confidence⚡ ALPHA +32pt (vs market)(Base 22% + Bear 8%) = 楽観シナリオ 70%➡ Verdict: OpenAI discloses $10B+ ARR AND presents investor roadmap showing path to operational profitability before Dec 31, 2027 → ❌ Missed❓ OpenAI reaches $10B ARR before end of 2027?🏛 Polymarket Consensus (at pub)YES 62%62% of prediction market capital bets on YESOpenAI's Revenue Milestone — $10 Billion ARR and the Profitability QuestionTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final62%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Q4 2026
Resolved: Will the prediction about '' come true?
Key Event: The key event is defined in the source forecast record and linked evidence trail.
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● 楽観シナリオ 70% confidence⚡ ALPHA +32pt (vs market)
(Base 22% + Bear 8%) = 楽観シナリオ 70%
➡ Verdict: OpenAI discloses $10B+ ARR AND presents investor roadmap showing path to operational profitability before Dec 31, 2027 → ❌ Missed
❓ OpenAI reaches $10B ARR before end of 2027?
🏛 Polymarket Consensus (at pub)YES 62%
62% of prediction market capital bets on YES
OpenAI's Revenue Milestone — $10 Billion ARR and the Profitability Question
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final62%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Bear
8%
Base
22%
Bull
70%
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
62%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 70.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 38.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.09) / market raw 0.38
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
OpenAI disclosed annual revenue figures to investors in 2026.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
Bull (70%)
Reaches $10B ARR by end of 2026. Enterprise contracts (Salesforce, government, healthcare) drive growth. 2027 investor presentation includes profitability roadmap.
Base (22%)
$10B ARR achieved in 2027 but compute costs surge, weakening 'path to profitability' narrative. Investor skepticism grows about sustainability.
Bear (8%)
Open-source models (Llama 4, Mistral) erode OpenAI's pricing power. ARR stagnates at $7-8B, profitability path unconvincing. Microsoft relationship strained.
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan's Largest Military Drill — The Escalation Spiral ThatOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified by at least two independent sources (e.g., satellite imagery firms, defense ministry announcements, or credible news agencies) confirming PLA Navy exercises involving 50 or more naval vessels operating within 50 kilometers of Taiwan's coastline at any point between March 6, 2026 and June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan's Largest Military Drill — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape the Indo-PacificArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final26%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan's Largest Military Drill — The Escalation Spiral That
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified by at least two independent sources (e.g., satellite imagery firms, defense ministry announcements, or credible news agencies) confirming PLA Navy exercises involving 50 or more naval vessels operating within 50 kilometers of Taiwan's coastline at any point between March 6, 2026 and June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan's Largest Military Drill — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape the Indo-Pacific
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final26%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
26%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the total stablecoin market capitalization exceed $185 billion by 2026-09-06?Key Event: EU's MiCA Crackdown on Stablecoins — Regulatory Capture ReshOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Total stablecoin market capitalization as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap on 2026-09-06 must be at or above $185 billion USD. This figure includes all stablecoins (USDT, USDC, DAI, FDUSD, etc.) regardless of regulatory status. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisEU's MiCA Crackdown on Stablecoins — Regulatory Capture Reshapes Global CryptoArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the total stablecoin market capitalization exceed $185 billion by 2026-09-06?
Key Event: EU's MiCA Crackdown on Stablecoins — Regulatory Capture Resh
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Total stablecoin market capitalization as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap on 2026-09-06 must be at or above $185 billion USD. This figure includes all stablecoins (USDT, USDC, DAI, FDUSD, etc.) regardless of regulatory status. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
EU's MiCA Crackdown on Stablecoins — Regulatory Capture Reshapes Global Crypto
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US FY2027 defense budget request exceed $950 billion by March 2027?Key Event: Miller's 'Unmatched Power' Doctrine — Imperial Overreach MeeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: The FY2027 President's Budget Request, submitted to Congress, shows a total Department of Defense budget authority (051 + 053 functions) exceeding $950 billion. Verified by CBO or OMB published figures. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisMiller's 'Unmatched Power' Doctrine — Imperial Overreach Meets Narrative WarArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US FY2027 defense budget request exceed $950 billion by March 2027?
Key Event: Miller's 'Unmatched Power' Doctrine — Imperial Overreach Mee
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: The FY2027 President's Budget Request, submitted to Congress, shows a total Department of Defense budget authority (051 + 053 functions) exceeding $950 billion. Verified by CBO or OMB published figures. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Miller's 'Unmatched Power' Doctrine — Imperial Overreach Meets Narrative War
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US Treasury renew India's Russian oil purchase waiver beyond the initial 30-day period by April 15, 2026?Key Event: US Grants India Russian Oil Waiver — Sanctions Crumble UnderOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 94% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the US Treasury announces a renewal, extension, or replacement of the India Russian oil waiver at any point between the original expiration date (~April 4, 2026) and April 15, 2026. NO if the waiver is allowed to expire without any renewal mechanism by April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Grants India Russian Oil Waiver — Sanctions Crumble Under Energy RealpolitikArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US Treasury renew India's Russian oil purchase waiver beyond the initial 30-day period by April 15, 2026?
Key Event: US Grants India Russian Oil Waiver — Sanctions Crumble Under
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 94% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the US Treasury announces a renewal, extension, or replacement of the India Russian oil waiver at any point between the original expiration date (~April 4, 2026) and April 15, 2026. NO if the waiver is allowed to expire without any renewal mechanism by April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Grants India Russian Oil Waiver — Sanctions Crumble Under Energy Realpolitik
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 6.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.88)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/india
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:india
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: india has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for March 31, 2026 take place as planned (not postponed or cancelled) by April 5, 2026?Key Event: Spratly Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Neither Side COur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: The summit is confirmed to have taken place if credible news sources (Reuters, AP, official White House/Xinhua statements) report that Trump and Xi met in person in Beijing between March 31 and April 5, 2026. If the summit is postponed, cancelled, downgraded to a phone call, or moved to a different date outside this window, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSpratly Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Neither Side Can Afford to LoseArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for March 31, 2026 take place as planned (not postponed or cancelled) by April 5, 2026?
Key Event: Spratly Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Neither Side C
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: The summit is confirmed to have taken place if credible news sources (Reuters, AP, official White House/Xinhua statements) report that Trump and Xi met in person in Beijing between March 31 and April 5, 2026. If the summit is postponed, cancelled, downgraded to a phone call, or moved to a different date outside this window, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Spratly Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Neither Side Can Afford to Lose
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:trumpentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: 817aeefde299 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Russia conduct a confirmed military strike on NATO logistics infrastructure (in a NATO member state) by 2026-03-27?Key Event: NATO Arms in Donbas — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side CanOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed kinetic military strike (missile, drone, or special operations sabotage officially attributed to Russia) targeting weapons storage, transit infrastructure, or military logistics facilities physically located within a NATO member state's sovereign territory. Cyberattacks alone do not qualify. The strike must be confirmed by either NATO official statement, the targeted member state's government, or verified by at least three independent OSINT sources. Unattributed sabotage or accidents do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNATO Arms in Donbas — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ControlArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Russia conduct a confirmed military strike on NATO logistics infrastructure (in a NATO member state) by 2026-03-27?
Key Event: NATO Arms in Donbas — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed kinetic military strike (missile, drone, or special operations sabotage officially attributed to Russia) targeting weapons storage, transit infrastructure, or military logistics facilities physically located within a NATO member state's sovereign territory. Cyberattacks alone do not qualify. The strike must be confirmed by either NATO official statement, the targeted member state's government, or verified by at least three independent OSINT sources. Unattributed sabotage or accidents do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
NATO Arms in Donbas — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Control
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 39d41a074add (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the March 31, 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing proceed as planned (not canceled or downgraded below head-of-state level) despite the Taiwan Strait drone incident?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral NeitheOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: The prediction is YES if Trump and Xi Jinping hold a bilateral head-of-state meeting in Beijing between March 28 and April 5, 2026. The prediction is NO if the summit is canceled, indefinitely postponed, or downgraded to below head-of-state level (e.g., foreign minister or national security advisor level only). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can AffordArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the March 31, 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing proceed as planned (not canceled or downgraded below head-of-state level) despite the Taiwan Strait drone incident?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neithe
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: The prediction is YES if Trump and Xi Jinping hold a bilateral head-of-state meeting in Beijing between March 28 and April 5, 2026. The prediction is NO if the summit is canceled, indefinitely postponed, or downgraded to below head-of-state level (e.g., foreign minister or national security advisor level only). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/trump / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:trumpdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: 3e4f253f60af (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran's Nuclear Cyberattack — The Escalation Spiral Nobody CaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Iran officially announces restrictions on IAEA inspector access, reduces cooperation with IAEA monitoring missions, or expels inspectors from one or more nuclear sites, as confirmed by IAEA official statements or reports published by 2026-04-30. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran's Nuclear Cyberattack — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can ClaimArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌manifold final48%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran's Nuclear Cyberattack — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Ca
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Iran officially announces restrictions on IAEA inspector access, reduces cooperation with IAEA monitoring missions, or expels inspectors from one or more nuclear sites, as confirmed by IAEA official statements or reports published by 2026-04-30. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran's Nuclear Cyberattack — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can Claim
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
manifold final48%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
48%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 77.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.05)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Hypersonic Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: YES if NATO officially announces deployment of at least 10,000 additional troops, a new Enhanced Forward Presence battlegroup, or equivalent military assets (such as integrated air defense batteries) to any Eastern European NATO member state (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Hungary) between March 2026 and June 30, 2026, with explicit reference to Russian missile developments as a justification. Rotational deployments and permanent stationing both count. NO if no such announcement is made, or if announcements reference other justifications without linking to the missile test. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NORussia's Hypersonic Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot IgnoreArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Hypersonic Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NAT
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: YES if NATO officially announces deployment of at least 10,000 additional troops, a new Enhanced Forward Presence battlegroup, or equivalent military assets (such as integrated air defense batteries) to any Eastern European NATO member state (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Hungary) between March 2026 and June 30, 2026, with explicit reference to Russian missile developments as a justification. Rotational deployments and permanent stationing both count. NO if no such announcement is made, or if announcements reference other justifications without linking to the missile test. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Russia's Hypersonic Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot Ignore
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the U.S. House of Representatives pass the Iran war powers resolution by 2026-04-15?Key Event: War Powers Showdown — Congress Tests the Limits of PresidentOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 69% confidence➡ Verdict: The U.S. House of Representatives holds a recorded vote on a war powers resolution specifically targeting U.S. military action regarding Iran, and the resolution passes with a simple majority (218+ votes). Procedural motions to table or amend the resolution into a different form do not count as passage. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisWar Powers Showdown — Congress Tests the Limits of Presidential Military Authority on IranArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the U.S. House of Representatives pass the Iran war powers resolution by 2026-04-15?
Key Event: War Powers Showdown — Congress Tests the Limits of President
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 69% confidence
➡ Verdict: The U.S. House of Representatives holds a recorded vote on a war powers resolution specifically targeting U.S. military action regarding Iran, and the resolution passes with a simple majority (218+ votes). Procedural motions to table or amend the resolution into a different form do not count as passage. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
War Powers Showdown — Congress Tests the Limits of Presidential Military Authority on Iran
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: UK Energy Bills Hit by Iran War — The Anatomy of a PoliticalOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the UK government announces a formal fiscal package specifically targeting household energy bills (e.g., expanded Warm Home Discount, one-off payments, VAT reduction on energy, or a new price guarantee) with a total value of £1 billion or more by June 30, 2026. Must be a new measure announced after March 5, 2026, not pre-existing programs. NO if the government takes no action, limits response to rhetorical statements, or implements measures costing less than £1 billion. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUK Energy Bills Hit by Iran War — The Anatomy of a Political Price TrapArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: UK Energy Bills Hit by Iran War — The Anatomy of a Political
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the UK government announces a formal fiscal package specifically targeting household energy bills (e.g., expanded Warm Home Discount, one-off payments, VAT reduction on energy, or a new price guarantee) with a total value of £1 billion or more by June 30, 2026. Must be a new measure announced after March 5, 2026, not pre-existing programs. NO if the government takes no action, limits response to rhetorical statements, or implements measures costing less than £1 billion. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
UK Energy Bills Hit by Iran War — The Anatomy of a Political Price Trap
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Russia's oil export revenue exceed $240 billion in 2026 (calendar year), benefiting from sustained Middle East instability and oil prices above $85/barrel?Key Event: Russia's Petrodollar Lifeline — How Middle East Chaos RescueOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Russian federal statistics service (Rosstat) or Central Bank of Russia annual trade data shows oil and petroleum product export revenues exceeding $240 billion for the 2026 calendar year. Alternative data from IEA, OPEC, or Bloomberg estimates accepted if official data is delayed or unavailable. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Petrodollar Lifeline — How Middle East Chaos Rescues a Failing War EconomyArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Russia's oil export revenue exceed $240 billion in 2026 (calendar year), benefiting from sustained Middle East instability and oil prices above $85/barrel?
Key Event: Russia's Petrodollar Lifeline — How Middle East Chaos Rescue
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Russian federal statistics service (Rosstat) or Central Bank of Russia annual trade data shows oil and petroleum product export revenues exceeding $240 billion for the 2026 calendar year. Alternative data from IEA, OPEC, or Bloomberg estimates accepted if official data is delayed or unavailable. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Petrodollar Lifeline — How Middle East Chaos Rescues a Failing War Economy
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia
Referenced knowledge
entity:russia
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China impose new critical mineral export restrictions specifically targeting defense-related materials by 2026-09-30?Key Event: Trump's Iran Offensive — Imperial Overreach Opens China's StOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: China announces or implements new export controls, licensing requirements, or restrictions on any critical mineral (rare earths, tungsten, antimony, gallium, germanium, or others) where the stated or practical effect targets defense/military applications. Must be an official government announcement or regulatory action, not just rhetoric. Expansions of existing restrictions (e.g., adding new minerals to the controlled list, or tightening licensing for existing controlled minerals) count as YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump's Iran Offensive — Imperial Overreach Opens China's Strategic WindowArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China impose new critical mineral export restrictions specifically targeting defense-related materials by 2026-09-30?
Key Event: Trump's Iran Offensive — Imperial Overreach Opens China's St
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: China announces or implements new export controls, licensing requirements, or restrictions on any critical mineral (rare earths, tungsten, antimony, gallium, germanium, or others) where the stated or practical effect targets defense/military applications. Must be an official government announcement or regulatory action, not just rhetoric. Expansions of existing restrictions (e.g., adding new minerals to the controlled list, or tightening licensing for existing controlled minerals) count as YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump's Iran Offensive — Imperial Overreach Opens China's Strategic Window
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump vs. Banks on Crypto — The Regulatory Capture War OverOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: The US Senate passes the GENIUS Act or substantially similar stablecoin legislation (by any name) with a recorded floor vote. The bill must establish a federal regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers. Passage means a majority vote (or 60-vote cloture followed by majority vote). Does not require House passage or presidential signature by this date. → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOTrump vs. Banks on Crypto — The Regulatory Capture War Over StablecoinsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump vs. Banks on Crypto — The Regulatory Capture War Over
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: The US Senate passes the GENIUS Act or substantially similar stablecoin legislation (by any name) with a recorded floor vote. The bill must establish a federal regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers. Passage means a majority vote (or 60-vote cloture followed by majority vote). Does not require House passage or presidential signature by this date. → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Trump vs. Banks on Crypto — The Regulatory Capture War Over Stablecoins
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump's Oil Tanker Shield — The DFC Insurance Gambit That ReOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed, publicly reported attack (missile strike, mine detonation, drone strike, or IRGCN direct action) on any oil tanker that is enrolled in the DFC political risk insurance program while transiting the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman. The attack must result in confirmed damage to the vessel (not merely a near-miss or warning shot). Reports from DFC, U.S. Navy, or major news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) constitute sufficient confirmation. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump's Oil Tanker Shield — The DFC Insurance Gambit That Reveals America's Iran War CalculusArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump's Oil Tanker Shield — The DFC Insurance Gambit That Re
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed, publicly reported attack (missile strike, mine detonation, drone strike, or IRGCN direct action) on any oil tanker that is enrolled in the DFC political risk insurance program while transiting the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman. The attack must result in confirmed damage to the vessel (not merely a near-miss or warning shot). Reports from DFC, U.S. Navy, or major news outlets (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) constitute sufficient confirmation. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump's Oil Tanker Shield — The DFC Insurance Gambit That Reveals America's Iran War Calculus
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US-China Spratly Islands naval standoff lead to the cancellation or indefinite postponement of the March 31, 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing?Key Event: Spratly Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Sanctions AlonOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for March 31 - April 2, 2026 in Beijing is officially cancelled, postponed, or downgraded to a non-presidential level meeting. NO if the summit proceeds as scheduled with both heads of state present, regardless of the outcome or length of the meeting. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSpratly Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Sanctions Alone Cannot ContainArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US-China Spratly Islands naval standoff lead to the cancellation or indefinite postponement of the March 31, 2026 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing?
Key Event: Spratly Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Sanctions Alon
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the Trump-Xi summit scheduled for March 31 - April 2, 2026 in Beijing is officially cancelled, postponed, or downgraded to a non-presidential level meeting. NO if the summit proceeds as scheduled with both heads of state present, regardless of the outcome or length of the meeting. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Spratly Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Sanctions Alone Cannot Contain
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/trump/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:trumpentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 8ea7296df8c9 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US and China establish a formal military communication protocol specifically for Taiwan Strait air encounters by 2026-06-07?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral NobodyOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the US and China jointly announce or sign a formal agreement, memorandum of understanding, or protocol specifically addressing military air encounters in the Taiwan Strait by June 7, 2026. The agreement must be publicly acknowledged by both governments. Informal or back-channel arrangements that are not publicly confirmed do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can ExitArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US and China establish a formal military communication protocol specifically for Taiwan Strait air encounters by 2026-06-07?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Nobody
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the US and China jointly announce or sign a formal agreement, memorandum of understanding, or protocol specifically addressing military air encounters in the Taiwan Strait by June 7, 2026. The agreement must be publicly acknowledged by both governments. Informal or back-channel arrangements that are not publicly confirmed do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can Exit
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO announce a new formal sanctions package specifically targeting Russia's defense-industrial sector by 2026-03-21?Key Event: Russia's Hypersonic Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if NATO (as an alliance via official NAC communiqué or joint statement) or at minimum the EU + US jointly announce new sanctions specifically targeting Russia's defense-industrial supply chain, missile technology components, or dual-use technology transfers, formally linked to the March 2026 missile test. Bilateral sanctions by individual NATO members without a coordinated alliance or EU+US framework do not count. The announcement must occur on or before March 21, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Hypersonic Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot IgnoreArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO announce a new formal sanctions package specifically targeting Russia's defense-industrial sector by 2026-03-21?
Key Event: Russia's Hypersonic Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NAT
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if NATO (as an alliance via official NAC communiqué or joint statement) or at minimum the EU + US jointly announce new sanctions specifically targeting Russia's defense-industrial supply chain, missile technology components, or dual-use technology transfers, formally linked to the March 2026 missile test. Bilateral sanctions by individual NATO members without a coordinated alliance or EU+US framework do not count. The announcement must occur on or before March 21, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Hypersonic Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot Ignore
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: cb31657e7a68 (medium)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Iran publicly and formally accuse the United States or Israel of conducting the cyberattack on its nuclear facility by 2026-03-21?Key Event: Iran's Nuclear Facility Cyberattack — The Shadow War's EscalOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: Iran's Supreme Leader, President, Foreign Minister, or official IRGC spokesperson makes a public statement specifically naming the United States or Israel (or both) as the perpetrator of the nuclear facility cyberattack, in an official broadcast, press conference, or state media publication. Vague references to 'enemies' or 'the Zionist regime' without explicitly naming a country do not count — the accusation must be specific and attributable to a named senior official. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran's Nuclear Facility Cyberattack — The Shadow War's Escalation SpiralArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Iran publicly and formally accuse the United States or Israel of conducting the cyberattack on its nuclear facility by 2026-03-21?
Key Event: Iran's Nuclear Facility Cyberattack — The Shadow War's Escal
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: Iran's Supreme Leader, President, Foreign Minister, or official IRGC spokesperson makes a public statement specifically naming the United States or Israel (or both) as the perpetrator of the nuclear facility cyberattack, in an official broadcast, press conference, or state media publication. Vague references to 'enemies' or 'the Zionist regime' without explicitly naming a country do not count — the accusation must be specific and attributable to a named senior official. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran's Nuclear Facility Cyberattack — The Shadow War's Escalation Spiral
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 9580c4826ead
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Bitcoin sustain a price above $120,000 through Q2 2026 (closing above $120K on June 30, 2026)?Key Event: Bitcoin $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Meets Retail FraOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's daily closing price (UTC midnight, CoinGecko reference) must be above $120,000 on June 30, 2026. If BTC closes at or below $120,000 on that date, the answer is NO. If BTC closes above $120,000, the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Meets Retail FragilityArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Bitcoin sustain a price above $120,000 through Q2 2026 (closing above $120K on June 30, 2026)?
Key Event: Bitcoin $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Meets Retail Fra
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's daily closing price (UTC midnight, CoinGecko reference) must be above $120,000 on June 30, 2026. If BTC closes at or below $120,000 on that date, the answer is NO. If BTC closes above $120,000, the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Meets Retail Fragility
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Hypersonic Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral ThaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: YES is confirmed if NATO officially announces deployment of at least one additional battalion-sized unit (300+ personnel) or equivalent military capability (e.g., additional missile defense battery, permanent air defense squadron) to any Eastern European NATO member state (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, or Baltic states), with the announcement explicitly referencing the 2026 Russian missile test or 'evolving Russian missile threats' as justification. Rotational increases that represent a net increase in average force levels also count. NO is confirmed if by June 30, 2026, no such announcement has been made. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NORussia's Hypersonic Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape NATOArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Hypersonic Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral Tha
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: YES is confirmed if NATO officially announces deployment of at least one additional battalion-sized unit (300+ personnel) or equivalent military capability (e.g., additional missile defense battery, permanent air defense squadron) to any Eastern European NATO member state (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, or Baltic states), with the announcement explicitly referencing the 2026 Russian missile test or 'evolving Russian missile threats' as justification. Rotational increases that represent a net increase in average force levels also count. NO is confirmed if by June 30, 2026, no such announcement has been made. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Russia's Hypersonic Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape NATO
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US-China naval standoff near Taiwan lead to a confirmed military skirmish (exchange of fire or physical collision causing casualties) by 2026-04-07?Key Event: US-China Naval Standoff Near Taiwan — The Escalation SpiralOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A military skirmish is defined as: (1) confirmed exchange of weapons fire between US and Chinese military forces, OR (2) a physical collision between naval vessels that results in reported casualties, AND (3) the incident is acknowledged by at least one government (US or China) through official statements. Near-misses, aggressive maneuvering, radar locks, or warning shots without casualties do not qualify. The event must occur in the waters surrounding Taiwan (Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, or Philippine Sea within 500nm of Taiwan) between March 7 and April 7, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-China Naval Standoff Near Taiwan — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ControlArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US-China naval standoff near Taiwan lead to a confirmed military skirmish (exchange of fire or physical collision causing casualties) by 2026-04-07?
Key Event: US-China Naval Standoff Near Taiwan — The Escalation Spiral
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A military skirmish is defined as: (1) confirmed exchange of weapons fire between US and Chinese military forces, OR (2) a physical collision between naval vessels that results in reported casualties, AND (3) the incident is acknowledged by at least one government (US or China) through official statements. Near-misses, aggressive maneuvering, radar locks, or warning shots without casualties do not qualify. The event must occur in the waters surrounding Taiwan (Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, or Philippine Sea within 500nm of Taiwan) between March 7 and April 7, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-China Naval Standoff Near Taiwan — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Control
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 3e485b647cd7 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That CoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if NATO or any NATO member officially announces new troop deployments, additional battalion/brigade-level rotations, or permanent basing decisions in Poland, the Baltic states, or Romania that are explicitly linked to the March 2026 missile test, as confirmed by official NATO communiqués, allied defense ministry statements, or Secretary General press conferences. Routine rotational replacements do not count — the deployment must be described as additional or augmented. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw NATO's Red LinesArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That Co
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if NATO or any NATO member officially announces new troop deployments, additional battalion/brigade-level rotations, or permanent basing decisions in Poland, the Baltic states, or Romania that are explicitly linked to the March 2026 missile test, as confirmed by official NATO communiqués, allied defense ministry statements, or Secretary General press conferences. Routine rotational replacements do not count — the deployment must be described as additional or augmented. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw NATO's Red Lines
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/xi-jinping/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:xi-jinpingentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Tether Under Siege — How US Stablecoin Law Reshapes the $200Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: Measured by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap stablecoin market share data on December 31, 2026. If USDT market capitalization divided by total stablecoin market capitalization is above 55.0%, the answer is YES. If at or below 55.0%, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOTether Under Siege — How US Stablecoin Law Reshapes the $200B MarketArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Tether Under Siege — How US Stablecoin Law Reshapes the $200
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: Measured by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap stablecoin market share data on December 31, 2026. If USDT market capitalization divided by total stablecoin market capitalization is above 55.0%, the answer is YES. If at or below 55.0%, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Tether Under Siege — How US Stablecoin Law Reshapes the $200B Market
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereum
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US extend the India-Russia oil waiver beyond its initial 30-day period by April 15, 2026?Key Event: Iran War Oil Shock — America's Sanctions Dilemma Reveals theOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: The US Treasury Department issues a formal extension, renewal, or replacement of the 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil, OR issues a new waiver with substantially similar terms, on or before April 15, 2026. Informal non-enforcement without a formal waiver does not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran War Oil Shock — America's Sanctions Dilemma Reveals the Limits of Maximum PressureArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US extend the India-Russia oil waiver beyond its initial 30-day period by April 15, 2026?
Key Event: Iran War Oil Shock — America's Sanctions Dilemma Reveals the
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: The US Treasury Department issues a formal extension, renewal, or replacement of the 30-day waiver allowing Indian refiners to purchase Russian oil, OR issues a new waiver with substantially similar terms, on or before April 15, 2026. Informal non-enforcement without a formal waiver does not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran War Oil Shock — America's Sanctions Dilemma Reveals the Limits of Maximum Pressure
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/iran/xi-jinping
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:iranentity:xi-jinping
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: india has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That CoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO or any individual NATO member state officially announces deployment of additional military forces (beyond previously scheduled rotations) to Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, or other Eastern European NATO member states, explicitly citing the Russian missile test as a factor. The announcement must come from an official NATO or government source and specify concrete force elements (troop numbers, system types, or unit designations). Routine rotation replacements do not count; the deployment must represent a net increase in force posture. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw NATO's Red LinesArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That Co
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO or any individual NATO member state officially announces deployment of additional military forces (beyond previously scheduled rotations) to Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, or other Eastern European NATO member states, explicitly citing the Russian missile test as a factor. The announcement must come from an official NATO or government source and specify concrete force elements (troop numbers, system types, or unit designations). Routine rotation replacements do not count; the deployment must represent a net increase in force posture. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw NATO's Red Lines
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the U.S. Congress pass any legislation constraining presidential military authority regarding Iran by 2026-09-30?Key Event: Congress Cedes War Powers on Iran — The Institutional DecayOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Any bill or joint resolution specifically constraining, limiting, or requiring authorization for U.S. military operations against Iran that is passed by both chambers of Congress (whether or not signed by the president or vetoed). Sense-of-Congress resolutions and non-binding measures do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisCongress Cedes War Powers on Iran — The Institutional Decay of Legislative AuthorityArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the U.S. Congress pass any legislation constraining presidential military authority regarding Iran by 2026-09-30?
Key Event: Congress Cedes War Powers on Iran — The Institutional Decay
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Any bill or joint resolution specifically constraining, limiting, or requiring authorization for U.S. military operations against Iran that is passed by both chambers of Congress (whether or not signed by the president or vetoed). Sense-of-Congress resolutions and non-binding measures do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Congress Cedes War Powers on Iran — The Institutional Decay of Legislative Authority
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Ukraine and the United States sign a formal counter-drone technology cooperation agreement by 2026-09-30?Key Event: Ukraine's Drone War Export — How Battlefield Expertise BecomOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: A publicly announced bilateral agreement, memorandum of understanding, or defense cooperation framework specifically covering counter-drone technology sharing between Ukraine and the United States is signed by an authorized government official from each country by September 30, 2026. Informal cooperation, verbal commitments, or leaked draft agreements do not count — only signed, publicly confirmed agreements. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUkraine's Drone War Export — How Battlefield Expertise Becomes Diplomatic CurrencyArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Ukraine and the United States sign a formal counter-drone technology cooperation agreement by 2026-09-30?
Key Event: Ukraine's Drone War Export — How Battlefield Expertise Becom
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: A publicly announced bilateral agreement, memorandum of understanding, or defense cooperation framework specifically covering counter-drone technology sharing between Ukraine and the United States is signed by an authorized government official from each country by September 30, 2026. Informal cooperation, verbal commitments, or leaked draft agreements do not count — only signed, publicly confirmed agreements. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Ukraine's Drone War Export — How Battlefield Expertise Becomes Diplomatic Currency
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ukraine
Referenced knowledge
entity:ukraine
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Institutional Stampede — When Pension FundsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Check the Bitcoin spot price (BTC/USD) on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap at 23:59 UTC on June 30, 2026. If the price is above $120,000.00, the answer is YES. If the price is at or below $120,000.00, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Institutional Stampede — When Pension Funds Become the BubbleArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Institutional Stampede — When Pension Funds
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Check the Bitcoin spot price (BTC/USD) on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap at 23:59 UTC on June 30, 2026. If the price is above $120,000.00, the answer is YES. If the price is at or below $120,000.00, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Institutional Stampede — When Pension Funds Become the Bubble
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Crude Oil Breaches $90 — Strait of Hormuz Blockade Risk JoltOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the closing price of WTI crude oil futures (NYMEX, front-month contract) records $100.00 or more per barrel on any one day. NO if it never reaches $100 by April 30. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisCrude Oil Breaches $90 — Strait of Hormuz Blockade Risk Jolts Global EconomyArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Crude Oil Breaches $90 — Strait of Hormuz Blockade Risk Jolt
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the closing price of WTI crude oil futures (NYMEX, front-month contract) records $100.00 or more per barrel on any one day. NO if it never reaches $100 by April 30. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Crude Oil Breaches $90 — Strait of Hormuz Blockade Risk Jolts Global Economy
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will WTI crude oil futures close above $100/barrel on any trading day before 2026-04-30?Key Event: Crude Oil Hits $90 — Hormuz Chokepoint Risk Reprices GlobalOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: WTI crude oil front-month futures settlement price (NYMEX) closes at or above $100.00 per barrel on at least one trading day between March 7 and April 30, 2026. Settlement price as reported by CME Group is the authoritative source. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisCrude Oil Hits $90 — Hormuz Chokepoint Risk Reprices Global EnergyArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will WTI crude oil futures close above $100/barrel on any trading day before 2026-04-30?
Key Event: Crude Oil Hits $90 — Hormuz Chokepoint Risk Reprices Global
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: WTI crude oil front-month futures settlement price (NYMEX) closes at or above $100.00 per barrel on at least one trading day between March 7 and April 30, 2026. Settlement price as reported by CME Group is the authoritative source. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Crude Oil Hits $90 — Hormuz Chokepoint Risk Reprices Global Energy
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 before September 30, 2026?Key Event: Crypto's March Crossroads — Regulation, Tariffs, and the $30Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's USD price on any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) must trade at or above $90,000 for at least one hourly candle close before September 30, 2026 23:59 UTC. Verified via CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical data. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisCrypto's March Crossroads — Regulation, Tariffs, and the $300B Stablecoin SignalArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 before September 30, 2026?
Key Event: Crypto's March Crossroads — Regulation, Tariffs, and the $30
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's USD price on any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) must trade at or above $90,000 for at least one hourly candle close before September 30, 2026 23:59 UTC. Verified via CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical data. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Crypto's March Crossroads — Regulation, Tariffs, and the $300B Stablecoin Signal
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoindynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Anthropic as a 'Security Risk' — Gov't sees AI firm refusingOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the US Department of Defense officially revokes/lifts Anthropic's "national security supply chain risk" designation. NO if the designation remains in place, or new sanctions are added. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAnthropic as a 'Security Risk' — Gov't sees AI firm refusing militarization as enemyTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Anthropic as a 'Security Risk' — Gov't sees AI firm refusing
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the US Department of Defense officially revokes/lifts Anthropic's "national security supply chain risk" designation. NO if the designation remains in place, or new sanctions are added. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Anthropic as a 'Security Risk' — Gov't sees AI firm refusing militarization as enemy
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran's retaliatory capability 'significantly degraded' — IrrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if an official IAEA report confirms Iran's uranium enrichment level has reached 90% or higher. NO if the IAEA reports less than 90%, or no report is published. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran's retaliatory capability 'significantly degraded' — Irreversible shift in Middle East power balanceArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran's retaliatory capability 'significantly degraded' — Irr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if an official IAEA report confirms Iran's uranium enrichment level has reached 90% or higher. NO if the IAEA reports less than 90%, or no report is published. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran's retaliatory capability 'significantly degraded' — Irreversible shift in Middle East power balance
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran's Degraded Deterrence — The Escalation Calculus After UOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from U.S. Department of Defense, Israeli Defense Forces, or credible international media (Reuters, AP, BBC) of a kinetic military strike specifically targeting an Iranian nuclear facility (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan, or Arak). Cyber attacks or covert sabotage operations do not count. Strikes on non-nuclear military targets do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran's Degraded Deterrence — The Escalation Calculus After U.S. StrikesArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final32%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran's Degraded Deterrence — The Escalation Calculus After U
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from U.S. Department of Defense, Israeli Defense Forces, or credible international media (Reuters, AP, BBC) of a kinetic military strike specifically targeting an Iranian nuclear facility (Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan, or Arak). Cyber attacks or covert sabotage operations do not count. Strikes on non-nuclear military targets do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran's Degraded Deterrence — The Escalation Calculus After U.S. Strikes
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final32%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
32%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 68.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.10
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Naval Standoff — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Judged YES if either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense officially confirms that military vessels from both nations exchanged fire (including warning shots that struck a vessel) in the South China Sea between March 1 and April 15, 2026. Judged NO if no such official confirmation exists by April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Naval Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Naval Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Judged YES if either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense officially confirms that military vessels from both nations exchanged fire (including warning shots that struck a vessel) in the South China Sea between March 1 and April 15, 2026. Judged NO if no such official confirmation exists by April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Naval Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATO CaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 87% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: YES if NATO (as an alliance or through individual member state announcements explicitly referencing the missile test) officially announces or begins deployment of at least 5,000 additional troops to NATO member states in Eastern Europe (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, or Bulgaria) by April 15, 2026. Pre-existing rotation replacements do not count; must be net new deployments announced after the missile test. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NORussia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot IgnoreArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATO Ca
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 87% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: YES if NATO (as an alliance or through individual member state announcements explicitly referencing the missile test) officially announces or begins deployment of at least 5,000 additional troops to NATO member states in Eastern Europe (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, or Bulgaria) by April 15, 2026. Pre-existing rotation replacements do not count; must be net new deployments announced after the missile test. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Russia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot Ignore
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 13.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.76) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the total stablecoin market capitalization drop below $245 billion (a 20% decline from $305 billion) at any point before 2026-12-31?Key Event: US Stablecoin Regulation — The KYC Chokepoint That ReshapesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Measured by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap total stablecoin market capitalization. If the aggregate stablecoin market cap drops below $245 billion at any daily closing snapshot between the date of this prediction and 2026-12-31, the answer is YES. If it remains at or above $245 billion throughout the period, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Stablecoin Regulation — The KYC Chokepoint That Reshapes Crypto's CoreArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the total stablecoin market capitalization drop below $245 billion (a 20% decline from $305 billion) at any point before 2026-12-31?
Key Event: US Stablecoin Regulation — The KYC Chokepoint That Reshapes
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Measured by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap total stablecoin market capitalization. If the aggregate stablecoin market cap drops below $245 billion at any daily closing snapshot between the date of this prediction and 2026-12-31, the answer is YES. If it remains at or above $245 billion throughout the period, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Stablecoin Regulation — The KYC Chokepoint That Reshapes Crypto's Core
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US and China engage in a formal diplomatic crisis (defined as ambassador recall, formal protest note, or emergency UN Security Council session) related to the South China Sea standoff by 2026-03-21?Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if by March 21, 2026, either the US or China recalls its ambassador for consultations, delivers a formal diplomatic protest note (not just a press statement), or requests an emergency UN Security Council session specifically related to this South China Sea incident. NO if the situation is managed through existing channels (press statements, military-to-military communication, routine diplomatic exchanges) without these formal escalatory steps. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford to StopArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US and China engage in a formal diplomatic crisis (defined as ambassador recall, formal protest note, or emergency UN Security Council session) related to the South China Sea standoff by 2026-03-21?
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if by March 21, 2026, either the US or China recalls its ambassador for consultations, delivers a formal diplomatic protest note (not just a press statement), or requests an emergency UN Security Council session specifically related to this South China Sea incident. NO if the situation is managed through existing channels (press statements, military-to-military communication, routine diplomatic exchanges) without these formal escalatory steps. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford to Stop
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 1d7ef5a2667a (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO officially announce the deployment of additional military forces (beyond existing Enhanced Forward Presence commitments) to its Eastern European member states by 2026-04-06?Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — The Escalation Spiral ThaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 94% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO or a NATO member state officially announces and begins the deployment of additional military forces (troops, equipment, or weapons systems) to Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, or other Eastern European NATO members, beyond the pre-existing Enhanced Forward Presence battle group commitments, specifically in response to Russia's tactical nuclear repositioning. The announcement must come from an official NATO or member-state defense ministry source. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redefine NATO's Eastern FlankArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO officially announce the deployment of additional military forces (beyond existing Enhanced Forward Presence commitments) to its Eastern European member states by 2026-04-06?
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — The Escalation Spiral Tha
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 94% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO or a NATO member state officially announces and begins the deployment of additional military forces (troops, equipment, or weapons systems) to Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, or other Eastern European NATO members, beyond the pre-existing Enhanced Forward Presence battle group commitments, specifically in response to Russia's tactical nuclear repositioning. The announcement must come from an official NATO or member-state defense ministry source. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redefine NATO's Eastern Flank
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/xi-jinping/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:xi-jinpingentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: d3fb3a0596f4 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Taiwan formally request emergency US military assistance (defined as an official government request for expedited weapons delivery, military advisory deployment, or direct defense support beyond existing sales agreements) by 2026-04-07?Key Event: Taiwan's Drone Crisis — The Escalation Spiral That Could TriOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if Taiwan's government (President, Minister of National Defense, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs) makes an official, publicly acknowledged request to the US government for emergency military assistance beyond scheduled arms sales. Informal diplomatic communications or media leaks do not count. The request must be confirmed by either Taiwanese or US official sources. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan's Drone Crisis — The Escalation Spiral That Could Trigger a Strait ShowdownArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Taiwan formally request emergency US military assistance (defined as an official government request for expedited weapons delivery, military advisory deployment, or direct defense support beyond existing sales agreements) by 2026-04-07?
Key Event: Taiwan's Drone Crisis — The Escalation Spiral That Could Tri
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if Taiwan's government (President, Minister of National Defense, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs) makes an official, publicly acknowledged request to the US government for emergency military assistance beyond scheduled arms sales. Informal diplomatic communications or media leaks do not count. The request must be confirmed by either Taiwanese or US official sources. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan's Drone Crisis — The Escalation Spiral That Could Trigger a Strait Showdown
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=taiwan/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:taiwanentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 17d63a486e6b (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AGI Safety Pact — The Coordination Failure Hiding BehOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if all five companies (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft) have each submitted at least one frontier model to a formal IASA-administered safety evaluation by December 31, 2027, as verified by IASA public records or official company disclosures. NO if any one of the five has not submitted. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AGI Safety Pact — The Coordination Failure Hiding Behind ConsensusArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final6%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AGI Safety Pact — The Coordination Failure Hiding Beh
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if all five companies (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft) have each submitted at least one frontier model to a formal IASA-administered safety evaluation by December 31, 2027, as verified by IASA public records or official company disclosures. NO if any one of the five has not submitted. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AGI Safety Pact — The Coordination Failure Hiding Behind Consensus
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final6%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
6%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai/google
Referenced knowledge
entity:openaientity:google
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AlphaThink and the Creativity Wars — When AI Crosses the LasOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: A U.S. federal district or appellate court issues a final ruling (not a preliminary injunction) in any of the pending AI copyright cases (including but not limited to AlphaThink-related suits) explicitly holding that training AI models on copyrighted works without permission does not constitute fair use under 17 U.S.C. § 107. Settlements, dismissals, or rulings that avoid the fair use question do not count. The ruling must be issued by September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAlphaThink and the Creativity Wars — When AI Crosses the Last Human MoatArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final29%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AlphaThink and the Creativity Wars — When AI Crosses the Las
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: A U.S. federal district or appellate court issues a final ruling (not a preliminary injunction) in any of the pending AI copyright cases (including but not limited to AlphaThink-related suits) explicitly holding that training AI models on copyrighted works without permission does not constitute fair use under 17 U.S.C. § 107. Settlements, dismissals, or rulings that avoid the fair use question do not count. The ruling must be issued by September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AlphaThink and the Creativity Wars — When AI Crosses the Last Human Moat
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final29%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
29%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: ChatGPT-6 and the Reasoning Singularity — When AI OutscoresOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: OpenAI, an independent benchmark organization (e.g., LMSYS, Stanford HELM), or a peer-reviewed study publishes results showing ChatGPT-6 scoring above 90% on a full Uniform Bar Exam (UBE) or equivalent standardized legal certification exam by June 30, 2026. Self-reported scores from OpenAI count only if methodology is publicly disclosed. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisChatGPT-6 and the Reasoning Singularity — When AI Outscores the ExpertsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final22%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: ChatGPT-6 and the Reasoning Singularity — When AI Outscores
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: OpenAI, an independent benchmark organization (e.g., LMSYS, Stanford HELM), or a peer-reviewed study publishes results showing ChatGPT-6 scoring above 90% on a full Uniform Bar Exam (UBE) or equivalent standardized legal certification exam by June 30, 2026. Self-reported scores from OpenAI count only if methodology is publicly disclosed. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
ChatGPT-6 and the Reasoning Singularity — When AI Outscores the Experts
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final22%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
22%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea 'Gray Zone Conflict' — US-China spiral neithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if between January 1 and December 31, 2026, a US Navy vessel and a Chinese Navy (PLAN) vessel engage in direct physical contact (collision, ramming, warning shots) in the South China Sea (including Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, Scarborough Shoal) and it is reported by either the US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or a major news agency (AP, Reuters, AFP). Does not include contact between coast guards, aircraft approaches, or Philippines-China contact. Limited to contact between US and Chinese "warships." → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea 'Gray Zone Conflict' — US-China spiral neither can back down fromArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea 'Gray Zone Conflict' — US-China spiral neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if between January 1 and December 31, 2026, a US Navy vessel and a Chinese Navy (PLAN) vessel engage in direct physical contact (collision, ramming, warning shots) in the South China Sea (including Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, Scarborough Shoal) and it is reported by either the US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or a major news agency (AP, Reuters, AFP). Does not include contact between coast guards, aircraft approaches, or Philippines-China contact. Limited to contact between US and Chinese "warships." → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea 'Gray Zone Conflict' — US-China spiral neither can back down from
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=us-china-trade-war
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:us-china-trade-warpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — The Platform Power PlayOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: OpenAI publicly reports or credible third-party analysts estimate that GPT-6 specifically (not GPT-4o or other models) is deployed in production workloads (not pilots or experiments) by at least 100,000 distinct enterprise customers by December 31, 2026. 'Production' means integrated into live business processes, not sandbox testing. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — The Platform Power Play That Reshapes Enterprise AIArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final88%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — The Platform Power Play
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: OpenAI publicly reports or credible third-party analysts estimate that GPT-6 specifically (not GPT-4o or other models) is deployed in production workloads (not pilots or experiments) by at least 100,000 distinct enterprise customers by December 31, 2026. 'Production' means integrated into live business processes, not sandbox testing. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — The Platform Power Play That Reshapes Enterprise AI
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final88%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
88%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will a US-China military confrontation involving weapons discharge or vessel ramming causing casualties occur in the South China Sea by 2026-12-31?Key Event: South China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral That CoulOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed incident in the South China Sea involving direct engagement between US military forces (including Navy, Coast Guard operating under military command) and Chinese military forces (PLAN, CCG, or maritime militia operating under PLA command) that results in (a) weapons discharge directed at the other side's vessels/aircraft, or (b) deliberate ramming causing confirmed casualties (injuries or deaths). Incidents involving only Philippine, Vietnamese, or other claimant forces without direct US military involvement do not count. Accidental collisions without casualties do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral That Could Trigger a US-China Military CollisionArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will a US-China military confrontation involving weapons discharge or vessel ramming causing casualties occur in the South China Sea by 2026-12-31?
Key Event: South China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral That Coul
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed incident in the South China Sea involving direct engagement between US military forces (including Navy, Coast Guard operating under military command) and Chinese military forces (PLAN, CCG, or maritime militia operating under PLA command) that results in (a) weapons discharge directed at the other side's vessels/aircraft, or (b) deliberate ramming causing confirmed casualties (injuries or deaths). Incidents involving only Philippine, Vietnamese, or other claimant forces without direct US military involvement do not count. Accidental collisions without casualties do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral That Could Trigger a US-China Military Collision
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump's 'I Guess' on Iran Threats — The Escalation Spiral NoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed U.S. military strike (missile, air strike, or special operations) hitting a target within Iran's internationally recognized borders. Cyber operations alone do not count. Strikes on Iranian proxies outside Iran do not count. The strike must be acknowledged by either the U.S. government or confirmed by multiple credible sources. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump's 'I Guess' on Iran Threats — The Escalation Spiral No One Can ControlArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final24%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump's 'I Guess' on Iran Threats — The Escalation Spiral No
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed U.S. military strike (missile, air strike, or special operations) hitting a target within Iran's internationally recognized borders. Cyber operations alone do not count. Strikes on Iranian proxies outside Iran do not count. The strike must be acknowledged by either the U.S. government or confirmed by multiple credible sources. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump's 'I Guess' on Iran Threats — The Escalation Spiral No One Can Control
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final24%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
24%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trumpentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's Nuclear Posture Shift — How Russia's Threats Are RewOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the Japanese government (Prime Minister, Cabinet, or Diet) formally announces any of the following by December 31, 2026: (1) a formal revision of the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, (2) an official reinterpretation of any of the three principles, or (3) the establishment of an official government study commission or advisory panel specifically tasked with reviewing the Three Non-Nuclear Principles. Informal Diet discussions, academic studies, or think-tank reports do not count. The announcement must come from an official government channel. → ❌ Missed❓ U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOJapan's Nuclear Posture Shift — How Russia's Threats Are Rewriting Asia's Security ArchitectureArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's Nuclear Posture Shift — How Russia's Threats Are Rew
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the Japanese government (Prime Minister, Cabinet, or Diet) formally announces any of the following by December 31, 2026: (1) a formal revision of the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, (2) an official reinterpretation of any of the three principles, or (3) the establishment of an official government study commission or advisory panel specifically tasked with reviewing the Three Non-Nuclear Principles. Informal Diet discussions, academic studies, or think-tank reports do not count. The announcement must come from an official government channel. → ❌ Missed
❓ U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Japan's Nuclear Posture Shift — How Russia's Threats Are Rewriting Asia's Security Architecture
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Dual Exercises — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified by official government statements, credible media reports, or UN documentation confirming that US, Japanese, Australian, or Philippine military forces and Chinese PLA/PLAN/PLAAF forces exchanged lethal fire (kinetic weapons, not water cannon, laser dazzling, or electronic warfare) in the South China Sea between March 2026 and December 31, 2026. Accidental discharge that results in no casualties and is acknowledged as accidental by both sides does not count. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Dual Exercises — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Dual Exercises — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified by official government statements, credible media reports, or UN documentation confirming that US, Japanese, Australian, or Philippine military forces and Chinese PLA/PLAN/PLAAF forces exchanged lethal fire (kinetic weapons, not water cannon, laser dazzling, or electronic warfare) in the South China Sea between March 2026 and December 31, 2026. Accidental discharge that results in no casualties and is acknowledged as accidental by both sides does not count. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Dual Exercises — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO officially announce increased troop deployments to Eastern Europe (beyond current Enhanced Forward Presence levels) by 2026-03-21?Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — The Escalation Spiral ThaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 98% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO, the US Department of Defense, or any NATO member state officially announces deployment of additional military forces (troops, aircraft, or naval assets) to NATO's eastern flank (Poland, Baltic states, Romania, or Bulgaria) beyond pre-crisis Enhanced Forward Presence levels, in response to Russia's tactical nuclear deployment. Announcement must come from an official government or NATO source. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — The Escalation Spiral That Rewrites European SecurityArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO officially announce increased troop deployments to Eastern Europe (beyond current Enhanced Forward Presence levels) by 2026-03-21?
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — The Escalation Spiral Tha
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 98% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO, the US Department of Defense, or any NATO member state officially announces deployment of additional military forces (troops, aircraft, or naval assets) to NATO's eastern flank (Poland, Baltic states, Romania, or Bulgaria) beyond pre-crisis Enhanced Forward Presence levels, in response to Russia's tactical nuclear deployment. Announcement must come from an official government or NATO source. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — The Escalation Spiral That Rewrites European Security
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 98.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 6ff042d6c7b8 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATO CaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: YES if NATO officially announces the deployment, repositioning, or permanent stationing of at least one additional battalion-sized unit (~500-800 troops) or equivalent capability (e.g., air defense battery, fighter squadron) to any Eastern European NATO member state (Poland, Baltics, Romania, Bulgaria) with explicit reference to the March 2026 Russian missile test as a contributing factor. The announcement must come from NATO HQ, SACEUR, or a NATO member government in an official capacity. Routine rotation replacements do not count; it must be a net increase. NO if no such announcement is made by April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NORussia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot IgnoreArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATO Ca
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: YES if NATO officially announces the deployment, repositioning, or permanent stationing of at least one additional battalion-sized unit (~500-800 troops) or equivalent capability (e.g., air defense battery, fighter squadron) to any Eastern European NATO member state (Poland, Baltics, Romania, Bulgaria) with explicit reference to the March 2026 Russian missile test as a contributing factor. The announcement must come from NATO HQ, SACEUR, or a NATO member government in an official capacity. Routine rotation replacements do not count; it must be a net increase. NO if no such announcement is made by April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Russia's Border Missile Test — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot Ignore
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US or China formally recall or summon their ambassador over the March 2026 South China Sea standoff by 2026-03-21?Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 3% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if either the US State Department confirms a formal recall or summons of the Chinese ambassador, or the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirms a formal recall or summons of the US ambassador, specifically citing the March 2026 South China Sea naval confrontation, by March 21, 2026. NO otherwise. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US or China formally recall or summon their ambassador over the March 2026 South China Sea standoff by 2026-03-21?
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 3% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if either the US State Department confirms a formal recall or summons of the Chinese ambassador, or the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirms a formal recall or summons of the US ambassador, specifically citing the March 2026 South China Sea naval confrontation, by March 21, 2026. NO otherwise. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 97.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: a3363928799b (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional Capital RewiresOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (coingecko.com) is at or above $120,000.00 USD. If yes, the answer is YES. If below $120,000.00, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOBitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional Capital Rewires the Crypto Power StructureArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional Capital Rewires
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (coingecko.com) is at or above $120,000.00 USD. If yes, the answer is YES. If below $120,000.00, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional Capital Rewires the Crypto Power Structure
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US and China establish a new military-to-military communication protocol specifically addressing drone and unmanned vehicle encounters by 2026-06-07?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral NeitheOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Judged YES if by June 7, 2026, the US Department of Defense and China's Ministry of National Defense announce, confirm, or publicly acknowledge a new bilateral protocol, agreement, or memorandum of understanding specifically addressing procedures for encounters involving unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) or unmanned systems in the Taiwan Strait or broader Western Pacific. A general 'military communication channel' or reactivation of existing hotlines does not count — the protocol must specifically reference unmanned systems or drone encounters. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can AffordArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US and China establish a new military-to-military communication protocol specifically addressing drone and unmanned vehicle encounters by 2026-06-07?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neithe
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Judged YES if by June 7, 2026, the US Department of Defense and China's Ministry of National Defense announce, confirm, or publicly acknowledge a new bilateral protocol, agreement, or memorandum of understanding specifically addressing procedures for encounters involving unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) or unmanned systems in the Taiwan Strait or broader Western Pacific. A general 'military communication channel' or reactivation of existing hotlines does not count — the protocol must specifically reference unmanned systems or drone encounters. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: fe9df9b847df (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral Neither SOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed kinetic engagement between US military forces (Navy, Air Force, Marines) and Chinese military forces (PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, Coast Guard operating under CMC direction) in the South China Sea, resulting in damage to military assets or casualties. Must involve direct US-China military contact — proxy incidents involving only Philippine and Chinese forces without direct US military participation do not qualify. Confirmation must come from official statements by either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford to StopArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral Neither S
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed kinetic engagement between US military forces (Navy, Air Force, Marines) and Chinese military forces (PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, Coast Guard operating under CMC direction) in the South China Sea, resulting in damage to military assets or casualties. Must involve direct US-China military contact — proxy incidents involving only Philippine and Chinese forces without direct US military participation do not qualify. Confirmation must come from official statements by either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford to Stop
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AlphaThink's Diagnostic Edge — When AI Outperforms the WhiteOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Verifiable by counting hospital systems (defined as multi-department healthcare institutions, not individual clinics) that have deployed AlphaThink in active clinical workflows where AI diagnostic recommendations are used in patient care decisions — not limited to research pilots or trials. Count must reach 50 or more globally, confirmed by Google Health announcements, hospital press releases, or credible reporting. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAlphaThink's Diagnostic Edge — When AI Outperforms the White CoatArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final47%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AlphaThink's Diagnostic Edge — When AI Outperforms the White
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verifiable by counting hospital systems (defined as multi-department healthcare institutions, not individual clinics) that have deployed AlphaThink in active clinical workflows where AI diagnostic recommendations are used in patient care decisions — not limited to research pilots or trials. Count must reach 50 or more globally, confirmed by Google Health announcements, hospital press releases, or credible reporting. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AlphaThink's Diagnostic Edge — When AI Outperforms the White Coat
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final47%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
47%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 47.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.28
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation SpiralOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO (as an alliance, or a major NATO nuclear power — US, UK, or France — acting in explicit coordination with NATO) announces and conducts nuclear-capable exercises that are publicly and officially described as a response to Russia's March 2026 nuclear drills near Ukraine. Routine, pre-scheduled exercises or exercises not explicitly linked to Russia's drills do not count. The exercises must involve strategic nuclear delivery systems (B-52/B-2 bombers, Trident submarines, or ICBM-related assets) and be publicly acknowledged by NATO or member-state officials as responsive to Russia's actions. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral Enters Its Most Dangerous PhaseArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final6%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO (as an alliance, or a major NATO nuclear power — US, UK, or France — acting in explicit coordination with NATO) announces and conducts nuclear-capable exercises that are publicly and officially described as a response to Russia's March 2026 nuclear drills near Ukraine. Routine, pre-scheduled exercises or exercises not explicitly linked to Russia's drills do not count. The exercises must involve strategic nuclear delivery systems (B-52/B-2 bombers, Trident submarines, or ICBM-related assets) and be publicly acknowledged by NATO or member-state officials as responsive to Russia's actions. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral Enters Its Most Dangerous Phase
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final6%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
6%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin to reach ¥15M: Institutional Investor ParticipationOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the BTC/JPY trading price exceeds 15,000,000 yen even once at a major cryptocurrency exchange (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or binance) by 23:59 (JST) on March 31, 2026. NO if it never exceeds it. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin to reach ¥15M: Institutional Investor Participation Changes Crypto Structure?Tracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin to reach ¥15M: Institutional Investor Participation
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the BTC/JPY trading price exceeds 15,000,000 yen even once at a major cryptocurrency exchange (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or binance) by 23:59 (JST) on March 31, 2026. NO if it never exceeds it. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin to reach ¥15M: Institutional Investor Participation Changes Crypto Structure?
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: c01bff4876aa (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Bitcoin's price exceed ¥15,000,000 (fifteen million yen) at any point during Q1 2026 (by March 31, 2026)?Key Event: Bitcoin's Institutional Stampede — When Pension Funds Buy thOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC) spot price on any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, bitFlyer) multiplied by the USD/JPY exchange rate at that moment exceeds ¥15,000,000 at any point between January 1 and March 31, 2026. A single intraday touch counts. Data source: CoinGecko or TradingView BTC/JPY pair. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's Institutional Stampede — When Pension Funds Buy the DipArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Bitcoin's price exceed ¥15,000,000 (fifteen million yen) at any point during Q1 2026 (by March 31, 2026)?
Key Event: Bitcoin's Institutional Stampede — When Pension Funds Buy th
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC) spot price on any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, bitFlyer) multiplied by the USD/JPY exchange rate at that moment exceeds ¥15,000,000 at any point between January 1 and March 31, 2026. A single intraday touch counts. Data source: CoinGecko or TradingView BTC/JPY pair. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's Institutional Stampede — When Pension Funds Buy the Dip
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: bfc6be0df050 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Ethereum to reach ¥5M: Will Zero-Fee Trading Cause Retail BuOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: "YES" if the ETH/JPY price on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap has a record of exceeding 5,000,000 yen even once as of 23:59 (JST) on March 31, 2026. "NO" if it never exceeds it. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisEthereum to reach ¥5M: Will Zero-Fee Trading Cause Retail Bubble?Tracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Ethereum to reach ¥5M: Will Zero-Fee Trading Cause Retail Bu
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: "YES" if the ETH/JPY price on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap has a record of exceeding 5,000,000 yen even once as of 23:59 (JST) on March 31, 2026. "NO" if it never exceeds it. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Ethereum to reach ¥5M: Will Zero-Fee Trading Cause Retail Bubble?
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Ethereum (ETH) close above ¥5,000,000 on any JFSA-registered Japanese exchange's daily closing price before 2026-03-31?Key Event: Ethereum's ¥5M Surge — Japan's Fee Wars Signal Retail FOMO IOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Ethereum's daily closing price (00:00 JST) on at least one JFSA-registered Japanese cryptocurrency exchange (bitFlyer, Coincheck, GMO Coin, bitbank, or SBI VC Trade) must equal or exceed ¥5,000,000 per 1 ETH on any single day before or on March 31, 2026. The closing price must be the actual traded price on a JPY spot market, not a USD-converted estimate. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisEthereum's ¥5M Surge — Japan's Fee Wars Signal Retail FOMO InflectionArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Ethereum (ETH) close above ¥5,000,000 on any JFSA-registered Japanese exchange's daily closing price before 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Ethereum's ¥5M Surge — Japan's Fee Wars Signal Retail FOMO I
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Ethereum's daily closing price (00:00 JST) on at least one JFSA-registered Japanese cryptocurrency exchange (bitFlyer, Coincheck, GMO Coin, bitbank, or SBI VC Trade) must equal or exceed ¥5,000,000 per 1 ETH on any single day before or on March 31, 2026. The closing price must be the actual traded price on a JPY spot market, not a USD-converted estimate. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Ethereum's ¥5M Surge — Japan's Fee Wars Signal Retail FOMO Inflection
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/ethereum/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:ethereumentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 7683424f690e (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Escalation — China's Military Pressure Tests tOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution requires a confirmed, publicly reported military engagement involving the exchange of fire (including missile launches, aerial shoot-downs, or naval engagements), a collision resulting in military casualties, or the seizure/occupation of any Taiwan-controlled territory by PLA forces. Cyber attacks, economic sanctions, diplomatic expulsions, ADIZ violations, and exercises in international waters/airspace do NOT qualify. The event must be confirmed by at least two independent government sources (e.g., Taiwan MoD + US DoD, or Taiwan MoD + independent media verification). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Escalation — China's Military Pressure Tests the Limits of DeterrenceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final26%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Escalation — China's Military Pressure Tests t
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution requires a confirmed, publicly reported military engagement involving the exchange of fire (including missile launches, aerial shoot-downs, or naval engagements), a collision resulting in military casualties, or the seizure/occupation of any Taiwan-controlled territory by PLA forces. Cyber attacks, economic sanctions, diplomatic expulsions, ADIZ violations, and exercises in international waters/airspace do NOT qualify. The event must be confirmed by at least two independent government sources (e.g., Taiwan MoD + US DoD, or Taiwan MoD + independent media verification). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Escalation — China's Military Pressure Tests the Limits of Deterrence
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final26%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
26%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will a US or Chinese naval vessel be involved in a physical collision or exchange of fire in the South China Sea by 2026-04-08?Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Won'tOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reports from official military sources (US Department of Defense, China Ministry of National Defense), credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP), or official government statements confirming either (a) a physical collision between US and Chinese naval/coast guard vessels, or (b) any exchange of fire (including warning shots) between US and Chinese military forces in the South China Sea. Incidents involving only the Philippines or other claimants without direct US military involvement do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Won't De-EscalateArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will a US or Chinese naval vessel be involved in a physical collision or exchange of fire in the South China Sea by 2026-04-08?
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Won't
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reports from official military sources (US Department of Defense, China Ministry of National Defense), credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP), or official government statements confirming either (a) a physical collision between US and Chinese naval/coast guard vessels, or (b) any exchange of fire (including warning shots) between US and Chinese military forces in the South China Sea. Incidents involving only the Philippines or other claimants without direct US military involvement do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Won't De-Escalate
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: f57c54dfcc81 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO officially announce an increase in troop deployments to Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltic states, or Romania) by 2026-03-22?Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nukes in Belarus: NATO Troop Increase?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 98% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO (via official statement, press conference, or SACEUR announcement) confirms new or additional troop deployments, battlegroup reinforcements, or force posture enhancements specifically to Eastern European member states (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, or Romania) by 2026-03-22. Routine rotations or previously scheduled deployments do not count; the announcement must reference the Belarus nuclear deployment or current security situation as justification. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nukes in Belarus: NATO Troop Increase?Article-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO officially announce an increase in troop deployments to Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltic states, or Romania) by 2026-03-22?
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nukes in Belarus: NATO Troop Increase?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 98% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO (via official statement, press conference, or SACEUR announcement) confirms new or additional troop deployments, battlegroup reinforcements, or force posture enhancements specifically to Eastern European member states (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, or Romania) by 2026-03-22. Routine rotations or previously scheduled deployments do not count; the announcement must reference the Belarus nuclear deployment or current security situation as justification. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nukes in Belarus: NATO Troop Increase?
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 98.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: e8c88aa51ce3 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO officially announce the deployment of additional military forces (battalion-sized or larger) to Eastern European member states by April 8, 2026, explicitly citing the Russian missile test as justification?Key Event: Russia's Border Missile Test: NATO Force Deployment?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO (via official press release, Secretary General statement, or SACEUR announcement) confirms the deployment or commitment to deploy additional forces of battalion size (300+ troops) or larger to any Eastern European NATO member state (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Baltic states, Hungary, Slovakia), with explicit reference to the Russian missile test as a contributing factor. Rotational reinforcement of existing battlegroups counts if described as an increase. Routine scheduled rotations that were already planned before the test do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Border Missile Test: NATO Force Deployment?Article-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO officially announce the deployment of additional military forces (battalion-sized or larger) to Eastern European member states by April 8, 2026, explicitly citing the Russian missile test as justification?
Key Event: Russia's Border Missile Test: NATO Force Deployment?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO (via official press release, Secretary General statement, or SACEUR announcement) confirms the deployment or commitment to deploy additional forces of battalion size (300+ troops) or larger to any Eastern European NATO member state (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Baltic states, Hungary, Slovakia), with explicit reference to the Russian missile test as a contributing factor. Rotational reinforcement of existing battlegroups counts if described as an increase. Routine scheduled rotations that were already planned before the test do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Border Missile Test: NATO Force Deployment?
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 9276ed5155c0 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the March 2026 US-China South China Sea naval standoff lead to a formal diplomatic crisis (defined as recall of either nation's ambassador, imposition of new sanctions specifically citing the incident, or confirmed physical collision/weapons discharge) by 2026-03-15?Key Event: South China Sea Standoff: US-China Diplomatic Crisis?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic crisis is confirmed if ANY of the following occur by March 15, 2026: (1) Either the US or China recalls its ambassador from the other country for consultations explicitly citing the naval standoff; (2) Either side imposes new sanctions or trade restrictions explicitly linked to the naval incident; (3) Confirmed reports from official sources of physical collision between vessels or weapons discharge during the standoff. If none of these occur by March 15, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Standoff: US-China Diplomatic Crisis?Article-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the March 2026 US-China South China Sea naval standoff lead to a formal diplomatic crisis (defined as recall of either nation's ambassador, imposition of new sanctions specifically citing the incident, or confirmed physical collision/weapons discharge) by 2026-03-15?
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff: US-China Diplomatic Crisis?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic crisis is confirmed if ANY of the following occur by March 15, 2026: (1) Either the US or China recalls its ambassador from the other country for consultations explicitly citing the naval standoff; (2) Either side imposes new sanctions or trade restrictions explicitly linked to the naval incident; (3) Confirmed reports from official sources of physical collision between vessels or weapons discharge during the standoff. If none of these occur by March 15, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Standoff: US-China Diplomatic Crisis?
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china
Referenced knowledge
entity:china
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 5e783c70bd63 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US and China engage in a direct military confrontation (defined as intentional firing of weapons by one side's forces at the other's military assets or personnel) in the Taiwan Strait by April 8, 2026?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept: US-China Military ConfrontatiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A direct military confrontation is defined as the intentional firing of weapons (missiles, guns, directed energy) by US or Chinese military forces at the other side's military assets (aircraft, ships, drones, bases) or personnel. Accidental collisions, electronic warfare, or cyberattacks do not qualify. The confrontation must occur in or directly adjacent to the Taiwan Strait (within 200 nautical miles of Taiwan). Confirmation must come from official government statements or credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP) reporting confirmed weapons fire. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Intercept: US-China Military Confrontation?Article-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US and China engage in a direct military confrontation (defined as intentional firing of weapons by one side's forces at the other's military assets or personnel) in the Taiwan Strait by April 8, 2026?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept: US-China Military Confrontati
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A direct military confrontation is defined as the intentional firing of weapons (missiles, guns, directed energy) by US or Chinese military forces at the other side's military assets (aircraft, ships, drones, bases) or personnel. Accidental collisions, electronic warfare, or cyberattacks do not qualify. The confrontation must occur in or directly adjacent to the Taiwan Strait (within 200 nautical miles of Taiwan). Confirmation must come from official government statements or credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP) reporting confirmed weapons fire. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept: US-China Military Confrontation?
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: c7b43196095c (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AGI Safety Protocols: 30 Nations Enact Legislation?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Count of participating nations that have enacted (passed into law, not merely proposed) domestic legislation specifically implementing the February 2026 AGI safety protocol requirements (kill switches, transparency mandates, compute thresholds). Threshold: 30 or more nations = YES, fewer than 30 = NO. Source: official government legislative databases and IASA tracking reports. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAGI Safety Protocols: 30 Nations Enact Legislation?Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final26%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AGI Safety Protocols: 30 Nations Enact Legislation?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Count of participating nations that have enacted (passed into law, not merely proposed) domestic legislation specifically implementing the February 2026 AGI safety protocol requirements (kill switches, transparency mandates, compute thresholds). Threshold: 30 or more nations = YES, fewer than 30 = NO. Source: official government legislative databases and IASA tracking reports. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AGI Safety Protocols: 30 Nations Enact Legislation?
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final26%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
26%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will a US or Chinese naval vessel fire a weapon (including warning shots) at the other nation's military vessel or aircraft in the South China Sea by 2026-04-08?Key Event: South China Sea Standoff: Weapon Fired by US/China?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reports from the US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or two or more major international wire services (Reuters, AP, AFP) confirming that a US or Chinese military platform discharged a weapon directed at the other nation's military asset in the South China Sea between March 8 and April 8, 2026. Warning shots, flares directed at vessels, or water cannon use by coast guard do not count — must involve military weapons systems. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Standoff: Weapon Fired by US/China?Article-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will a US or Chinese naval vessel fire a weapon (including warning shots) at the other nation's military vessel or aircraft in the South China Sea by 2026-04-08?
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff: Weapon Fired by US/China?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reports from the US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or two or more major international wire services (Reuters, AP, AFP) confirming that a US or Chinese military platform discharged a weapon directed at the other nation's military asset in the South China Sea between March 8 and April 8, 2026. Warning shots, flares directed at vessels, or water cannon use by coast guard do not count — must involve military weapons systems. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Standoff: Weapon Fired by US/China?
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china
Referenced knowledge
entity:china
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: abb0749375f4 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Taiwan's military shoot down or physically intercept a Chinese drone over its territory or ADIZ by 2026-03-31?Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions: Taiwan Shoots Down Drone?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense, PLA Eastern Theater Command, or credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP) that Taiwan's military physically destroyed, captured, or forced down a Chinese drone through kinetic or electronic means. Verbal protests, fighter scrambles, and tracking do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Drone Incursions: Taiwan Shoots Down Drone?Article-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Taiwan's military shoot down or physically intercept a Chinese drone over its territory or ADIZ by 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions: Taiwan Shoots Down Drone?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense, PLA Eastern Theater Command, or credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP) that Taiwan's military physically destroyed, captured, or forced down a Chinese drone through kinetic or electronic means. Verbal protests, fighter scrambles, and tracking do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Drone Incursions: Taiwan Shoots Down Drone?
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 43d0fc38a73f (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine: NATO Troop Increase?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO or individual NATO member states officially announce new troop deployments, force rotations, or permanent basing decisions in Poland, the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), or Romania after March 2026, with official statements explicitly referencing Russia's nuclear exercises or nuclear posture as a factor in the decision. Announcements must involve additional forces beyond pre-existing 2025 deployment levels. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine: NATO Troop Increase?Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final6%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine: NATO Troop Increase?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO or individual NATO member states officially announce new troop deployments, force rotations, or permanent basing decisions in Poland, the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), or Romania after March 2026, with official statements explicitly referencing Russia's nuclear exercises or nuclear posture as a factor in the decision. Announcements must involve additional forces beyond pre-existing 2025 deployment levels. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine: NATO Troop Increase?
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final6%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
6%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 31% confidence➡ Verdict: Check Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap at 23:59 UTC on June 30, 2026. If the price is at or above $120,000.00, the answer is YES. If below $120,000.00, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakthrough?Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 31% confidence
➡ Verdict: Check Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap at 23:59 UTC on June 30, 2026. If the price is at or above $120,000.00, the answer is YES. If below $120,000.00, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough?
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Stablecoin Act: Market Cap Drop 20%?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Using CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap total stablecoin market cap data on 2026-12-31. YES if total stablecoin market cap is at or below $142.4B. NO if it is above $142.4B. The reference baseline is $178B (January 2026 level). A 20% decline = $142.4B or lower. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Cashius Howell be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOUS Stablecoin Act: Market Cap Drop 20%?Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Stablecoin Act: Market Cap Drop 20%?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Using CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap total stablecoin market cap data on 2026-12-31. YES if total stablecoin market cap is at or below $142.4B. NO if it is above $142.4B. The reference baseline is $178B (January 2026 level). A 20% decline = $142.4B or lower. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Cashius Howell be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
US Stablecoin Act: Market Cap Drop 20%?
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 Reasoning Leap: 30% of Fortune 500?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: 'Deployed in production' means the model is used in customer-facing or business-critical workflows without mandatory human review of every output. 'Autonomous reasoning tasks' excludes content generation, summarization, and code completion with human review—it means tasks like legal analysis, financial modeling, diagnostic reasoning, or strategic recommendation where the AI output is acted upon directly. '30% of Fortune 500' = 150+ companies, measurable through earnings call disclosures, vendor announcements, or credible industry surveys (Gartner, McKinsey, IDC). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 Reasoning Leap: 30% of Fortune 500?Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final13%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 Reasoning Leap: 30% of Fortune 500?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: 'Deployed in production' means the model is used in customer-facing or business-critical workflows without mandatory human review of every output. 'Autonomous reasoning tasks' excludes content generation, summarization, and code completion with human review—it means tasks like legal analysis, financial modeling, diagnostic reasoning, or strategic recommendation where the AI output is acted upon directly. '30% of Fortune 500' = 150+ companies, measurable through earnings call disclosures, vendor announcements, or credible industry surveys (Gartner, McKinsey, IDC). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 Reasoning Leap: 30% of Fortune 500?
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final13%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
13%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US conduct a military strike on Iranian sovereign territory (not proxy targets in Iraq/Syria/Yemen, but Iran itself) by 2026-06-08?Key Event: Iran's Escalation Warning: US Military Strike on Iran?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reporting from at least two credible international news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, etc.) confirming US military strikes on targets within the internationally recognized borders of Iran (not including proxy targets in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, or other third countries). Strikes must be conducted by US forces, not Israeli or other allied forces acting independently. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran's Escalation Warning: US Military Strike on Iran?Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US conduct a military strike on Iranian sovereign territory (not proxy targets in Iraq/Syria/Yemen, but Iran itself) by 2026-06-08?
Key Event: Iran's Escalation Warning: US Military Strike on Iran?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reporting from at least two credible international news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, etc.) confirming US military strikes on targets within the internationally recognized borders of Iran (not including proxy targets in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, or other third countries). Strikes must be conducted by US forces, not Israeli or other allied forces acting independently. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran's Escalation Warning: US Military Strike on Iran?
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Iran Strikes Escalate: Ceasefire by 2026?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: A ceasefire is established if: (1) both sides publicly or through intermediaries announce a halt to offensive military operations, AND (2) no major US/Israeli strikes on Iranian territory or Iranian retaliatory strikes on US/Israeli targets occur for at least 7 consecutive days before April 30, 2026. Informal/de facto ceasefires count. Continued proxy activity (Houthis, militias) at pre-conflict levels does not invalidate the ceasefire if direct US/Israel-Iran exchanges have stopped. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Iran Strikes Escalate: Ceasefire by 2026?Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final32%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Iran Strikes Escalate: Ceasefire by 2026?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: A ceasefire is established if: (1) both sides publicly or through intermediaries announce a halt to offensive military operations, AND (2) no major US/Israeli strikes on Iranian territory or Iranian retaliatory strikes on US/Israeli targets occur for at least 7 consecutive days before April 30, 2026. Informal/de facto ceasefires count. Continued proxy activity (Houthis, militias) at pre-conflict levels does not invalidate the ceasefire if direct US/Israel-Iran exchanges have stopped. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Iran Strikes Escalate: Ceasefire by 2026?
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final32%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
32%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 68.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38) / market raw 0.10
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israel
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will US military operations against Iran still be actively ongoing (defined as kinetic strikes or combat deployments in/against Iranian territory or forces) on 2026-09-01?Key Event: GOP's Iran Dilemma: US Military Operations Ongoing?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: US military operations against Iran are considered 'actively ongoing' if, as of September 1, 2026, the US has conducted kinetic military strikes against Iranian territory, Iranian military assets, or Iranian proxy forces in the preceding 30 days, OR if US combat forces remain deployed specifically for the Iran operation. Verification via official DoD statements, CENTCOM press releases, or credible media reporting of ongoing operations. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGOP's Iran Dilemma: US Military Operations Ongoing?Article-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will US military operations against Iran still be actively ongoing (defined as kinetic strikes or combat deployments in/against Iranian territory or forces) on 2026-09-01?
Key Event: GOP's Iran Dilemma: US Military Operations Ongoing?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: US military operations against Iran are considered 'actively ongoing' if, as of September 1, 2026, the US has conducted kinetic military strikes against Iranian territory, Iranian military assets, or Iranian proxy forces in the preceding 30 days, OR if US combat forces remain deployed specifically for the Iran operation. Verification via official DoD statements, CENTCOM press releases, or credible media reporting of ongoing operations. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GOP's Iran Dilemma: US Military Operations Ongoing?
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hegseth Dismisses Russia-Iran Axis: Significant Strike?Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if credible reporting (from DoD, major wire services, or congressional testimony) confirms a strike causing 10+ U.S. military casualties where the targeting is officially or credibly attributed to Russian intelligence support to Iran. NO if no such incident occurs or if casualties remain below the threshold by the deadline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHegseth Dismisses Russia-Iran Axis: Significant Strike?Article-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hegseth Dismisses Russia-Iran Axis: Significant Strike?
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if credible reporting (from DoD, major wire services, or congressional testimony) confirms a strike causing 10+ U.S. military casualties where the targeting is officially or credibly attributed to Russian intelligence support to Iran. NO if no such incident occurs or if casualties remain below the threshold by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hegseth Dismisses Russia-Iran Axis: Significant Strike?
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/iran/xi-jinping
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:iranentity:xi-jinping
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US and Israel achieve a verified cessation of Iranian uranium enrichment above 5% purity by 2026-09-08?Key Event: Iran War Stockpile Crisis — Imperial Overreach Meets LogistiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: IAEA verification report confirms Iran has ceased all uranium enrichment above 5% purity at all declared facilities (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan) as of the deadline date. Partial reduction does not count — must be full cessation below 5% threshold across all sites, confirmed by IAEA inspectors with physical access. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran War Stockpile Crisis — Imperial Overreach Meets Logistical RealityArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US and Israel achieve a verified cessation of Iranian uranium enrichment above 5% purity by 2026-09-08?
Key Event: Iran War Stockpile Crisis — Imperial Overreach Meets Logisti
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: IAEA verification report confirms Iran has ceased all uranium enrichment above 5% purity at all declared facilities (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan) as of the deadline date. Partial reduction does not count — must be full cessation below 5% threshold across all sites, confirmed by IAEA inspectors with physical access. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran War Stockpile Crisis — Imperial Overreach Meets Logistical Reality
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israel
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AlphaThink — When AI Outplays Human Strategy, the Power GameOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: At least one NATO member state's defense ministry or military branch publicly confirms (via press release, budget document, parliamentary testimony, or credible investigative reporting) the operational deployment — not merely testing or evaluation — of a strategic AI system derived from AlphaThink or a comparable platform (e.g., Palantir AIP, Anduril Lattice with strategic AI module) in military command-and-control or operational planning functions by December 31, 2027. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAlphaThink — When AI Outplays Human Strategy, the Power Game ChangesArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final29%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AlphaThink — When AI Outplays Human Strategy, the Power Game
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least one NATO member state's defense ministry or military branch publicly confirms (via press release, budget document, parliamentary testimony, or credible investigative reporting) the operational deployment — not merely testing or evaluation — of a strategic AI system derived from AlphaThink or a comparable platform (e.g., Palantir AIP, Anduril Lattice with strategic AI module) in military command-and-control or operational planning functions by December 31, 2027. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AlphaThink — When AI Outplays Human Strategy, the Power Game Changes
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final29%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
29%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea's Missile Resumption — Japan's Defense InflectioOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: The Japanese Cabinet approves an FY2027 initial defense budget (tosho yosan) that, when calculated against the Cabinet Office's latest GDP estimate, equals or exceeds 2.0% of GDP. Supplementary budgets are excluded — only the initial budget counts. The approval must be officially announced by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea's Missile Resumption — Japan's Defense Inflection PointArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final12%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea's Missile Resumption — Japan's Defense Inflectio
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: The Japanese Cabinet approves an FY2027 initial defense budget (tosho yosan) that, when calculated against the Cabinet Office's latest GDP estimate, equals or exceeds 2.0% of GDP. Supplementary budgets are excluded — only the initial budget counts. The approval must be officially announced by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea's Missile Resumption — Japan's Defense Inflection Point
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final12%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
12%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/north-korea
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:north-korea
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Deepening Russia-Iran Military Cooperation — Zelensky ExposeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the Ministries of Defense of Russia or Iran officially announce the implementation of joint military exercises and major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, TASS, etc.) report on it. Targets substantive exercises involving combat units, not small-scale maritime communication exercises. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisDeepening Russia-Iran Military Cooperation — Zelensky Exposes "Two-Front Pressure" StructureArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Deepening Russia-Iran Military Cooperation — Zelensky Expose
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the Ministries of Defense of Russia or Iran officially announce the implementation of joint military exercises and major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, TASS, etc.) report on it. Targets substantive exercises involving combat units, not small-scale maritime communication exercises. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Deepening Russia-Iran Military Cooperation — Zelensky Exposes "Two-Front Pressure" Structure
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/iran/zelensky
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:iranentity:zelensky
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: zelensky has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the United States pass a new Ukraine military aid package of $10 billion or more by 2026-06-30?Key Event: Russia-Iran Axis Deepens — Zelensky's Bid to Link Two FrontsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: A U.S. congressional bill or continuing resolution allocating $10 billion or more in new military assistance specifically for Ukraine is signed into law by the President before June 30, 2026. The amount must be explicitly designated for Ukraine military/security assistance, not general defense spending. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia-Iran Axis Deepens — Zelensky's Bid to Link Two FrontsArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the United States pass a new Ukraine military aid package of $10 billion or more by 2026-06-30?
Key Event: Russia-Iran Axis Deepens — Zelensky's Bid to Link Two Fronts
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: A U.S. congressional bill or continuing resolution allocating $10 billion or more in new military assistance specifically for Ukraine is signed into law by the President before June 30, 2026. The amount must be explicitly designated for Ukraine military/security assistance, not general defense spending. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia-Iran Axis Deepens — Zelensky's Bid to Link Two Fronts
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's DeFi Regulatory Bill — The Trap of Path Dependence AOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: By June 30, 2026, a bill imposing KYC (Know Your Customer) obligations on DeFi protocols or their operators has been passed and enacted by both houses of the Diet (House of Representatives and House of Councillors). YES if passed and enacted, NO otherwise. Submission of the bill alone is not YES. Even if it is an amended bill, it will be judged as YES if it contains provisions for KYC obligations for DeFi. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's DeFi Regulatory Bill — The Trap of Path Dependence Approaching "Unmanaged Finance"Tracker-only判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's DeFi Regulatory Bill — The Trap of Path Dependence A
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: By June 30, 2026, a bill imposing KYC (Know Your Customer) obligations on DeFi protocols or their operators has been passed and enacted by both houses of the Diet (House of Representatives and House of Councillors). YES if passed and enacted, NO otherwise. Submission of the bill alone is not YES. Even if it is an amended bill, it will be judged as YES if it contains provisions for KYC obligations for DeFi. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's DeFi Regulatory Bill — The Trap of Path Dependence Approaching "Unmanaged Finance"
Tracker-only
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Bid to Lock In EnterpriseOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: At least 250 of the Fortune 500 companies must have GPT-6 (specifically, not GPT-4 or GPT-4o) deployed in at least one production workflow (not pilot/experimental) as reported by credible industry surveys (McKinsey, Gartner, Forrester), OpenAI's official disclosures, or verified media reports by September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Bid to Lock In Enterprise AI DominanceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Bid to Lock In Enterprise
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least 250 of the Fortune 500 companies must have GPT-6 (specifically, not GPT-4 or GPT-4o) deployed in at least one production workflow (not pilot/experimental) as reported by credible industry surveys (McKinsey, Gartner, Forrester), OpenAI's official disclosures, or verified media reports by September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Bid to Lock In Enterprise AI Dominance
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will a binding international AGI safety framework with enforceable compliance mechanisms be ratified by at least 3 of the 5 major AI powers (US, China, EU, UK, Japan) by 2027-12-31?Key Event: AGI Safety Summit — Regulatory Race Outpaced by the TechnoloOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A binding international framework is defined as a treaty, convention, or formal agreement that: (1) includes mandatory pre-deployment safety evaluations for frontier AI models, (2) establishes an enforcement mechanism with penalties for non-compliance, and (3) is ratified (not just signed) by at least 3 of the 5 specified powers (US, China, EU, UK, Japan) by December 31, 2027. Voluntary commitments, declarations of intent, or non-binding communiques do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAGI Safety Summit — Regulatory Race Outpaced by the Technology It Seeks to GovernArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will a binding international AGI safety framework with enforceable compliance mechanisms be ratified by at least 3 of the 5 major AI powers (US, China, EU, UK, Japan) by 2027-12-31?
Key Event: AGI Safety Summit — Regulatory Race Outpaced by the Technolo
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A binding international framework is defined as a treaty, convention, or formal agreement that: (1) includes mandatory pre-deployment safety evaluations for frontier AI models, (2) establishes an enforcement mechanism with penalties for non-compliance, and (3) is ratified (not just signed) by at least 3 of the 5 specified powers (US, China, EU, UK, Japan) by December 31, 2027. Voluntary commitments, declarations of intent, or non-binding communiques do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AGI Safety Summit — Regulatory Race Outpaced by the Technology It Seeks to Govern
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/japan/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:japanentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Iran formally appoint a new Supreme Leader by 2026-06-30?Key Event: Israel's Successor Hunt — Decapitation Strategy Meets ImperiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Iran's Assembly of Experts officially announces a new Supreme Leader who is publicly identified and assumes the constitutional role. Interim arrangements, 'acting' titles, or IRGC military governance do not count as formal appointment. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIsrael's Successor Hunt — Decapitation Strategy Meets Imperial OverreachArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Iran formally appoint a new Supreme Leader by 2026-06-30?
Key Event: Israel's Successor Hunt — Decapitation Strategy Meets Imperi
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Iran's Assembly of Experts officially announces a new Supreme Leader who is publicly identified and assumes the constitutional role. Interim arrangements, 'acting' titles, or IRGC military governance do not count as formal appointment. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Israel's Successor Hunt — Decapitation Strategy Meets Imperial Overreach
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israel
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the United States conduct a direct military strike on Iranian sovereign territory (mainland Iran) by 2026-06-30?Key Event: Iran's Escalation Warning — Deterrence Spiral in the MiddleOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed U.S. military strike (missile, bomb, drone, or cyber-physical attack) hitting a target within Iran's internationally recognized borders (excluding proxy targets in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen). Confirmed by official U.S. Department of Defense statement or independently verified by two or more major news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran's Escalation Warning — Deterrence Spiral in the Middle EastArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the United States conduct a direct military strike on Iranian sovereign territory (mainland Iran) by 2026-06-30?
Key Event: Iran's Escalation Warning — Deterrence Spiral in the Middle
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed U.S. military strike (missile, bomb, drone, or cyber-physical attack) hitting a target within Iran's internationally recognized borders (excluding proxy targets in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen). Confirmed by official U.S. Department of Defense statement or independently verified by two or more major news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran's Escalation Warning — Deterrence Spiral in the Middle East
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Reasoning — The Enterprise AI Inflection PoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if credible third-party survey data (Gartner, McKinsey, Forrester, or equivalent) published by 2027-03-31 shows that 50% or more of Fortune 500 companies have at least one production (non-pilot) GPT-6 deployment as of December 31, 2026. Resolved NO if no such data exists or the reported figure is below 50%. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 Multimodal Reasoning — The Enterprise AI Inflection PointArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final13%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Reasoning — The Enterprise AI Inflection Po
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if credible third-party survey data (Gartner, McKinsey, Forrester, or equivalent) published by 2027-03-31 shows that 50% or more of Fortune 500 companies have at least one production (non-pilot) GPT-6 deployment as of December 31, 2026. Resolved NO if no such data exists or the reported figure is below 50%. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 Multimodal Reasoning — The Enterprise AI Inflection Point
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final13%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
13%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Kyiv Grid Strike — Cyber War Becomes the New Front LineOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by June 30 2026, either (a) Ukrainian officials publicly claim responsibility for a cyberattack on Russian infrastructure (power, transport, finance, government systems), or (b) two or more Western intelligence agencies or credible cybersecurity firms (e.g., Mandiant, CrowdStrike, Microsoft) attribute a significant cyberattack on Russian infrastructure to Ukrainian state actors. The attack must cause confirmed service disruption lasting at least 1 hour. Resolved NO if neither condition is met by the deadline. → ❌ Missed❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOKyiv Grid Strike — Cyber War Becomes the New Front LineArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Kyiv Grid Strike — Cyber War Becomes the New Front Line
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by June 30 2026, either (a) Ukrainian officials publicly claim responsibility for a cyberattack on Russian infrastructure (power, transport, finance, government systems), or (b) two or more Western intelligence agencies or credible cybersecurity firms (e.g., Mandiant, CrowdStrike, Microsoft) attribute a significant cyberattack on Russian infrastructure to Ukrainian state actors. The attack must cause confirmed service disruption lasting at least 1 hour. Resolved NO if neither condition is met by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Kyiv Grid Strike — Cyber War Becomes the New Front Line
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraine
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China impose a naval blockade (or formal maritime inspection/quarantine zone) around Taiwan by 2026-04-11?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — Escalation in Asia's Security MapOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution: YES if by April 11, 2026, the PRC government or PLA Navy has officially declared and begun enforcing a naval blockade, maritime quarantine, or mandatory vessel inspection zone covering the majority of approaches to Taiwan's major ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung). The declaration must be accompanied by physical enforcement actions (vessel interceptions, port closures, or denial of transit). Unofficial naval presence or exercises alone do not count — there must be an official declaration restricting commercial shipping. Resolution: NO if no such declaration and enforcement occurs by the deadline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Standoff — Escalation in Asia's Security MapArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China impose a naval blockade (or formal maritime inspection/quarantine zone) around Taiwan by 2026-04-11?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — Escalation in Asia's Security Map
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution: YES if by April 11, 2026, the PRC government or PLA Navy has officially declared and begun enforcing a naval blockade, maritime quarantine, or mandatory vessel inspection zone covering the majority of approaches to Taiwan's major ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung). The declaration must be accompanied by physical enforcement actions (vessel interceptions, port closures, or denial of transit). Unofficial naval presence or exercises alone do not count — there must be an official declaration restricting commercial shipping. Resolution: NO if no such declaration and enforcement occurs by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Standoff — Escalation in Asia's Security Map
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: EU AI Act vs. Claude 5 — Regulation Stress TestOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: YES if the European Commission publishes a formal legislative proposal, delegated act, or official Communication announcing specific amendments, revisions, or a formal review process for the GPAI provisions of the EU AI Act by December 31, 2026. Informal statements, leaked drafts, or parliamentary motions without Commission action do not count. A formal consultation specifically on GPAI Code of Practice revision counts as YES. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOEU AI Act vs. Claude 5 — Regulation Stress TestArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: EU AI Act vs. Claude 5 — Regulation Stress Test
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: YES if the European Commission publishes a formal legislative proposal, delegated act, or official Communication announcing specific amendments, revisions, or a formal review process for the GPAI provisions of the EU AI Act by December 31, 2026. Informal statements, leaked drafts, or parliamentary motions without Commission action do not count. A formal consultation specifically on GPAI Code of Practice revision counts as YES. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
EU AI Act vs. Claude 5 — Regulation Stress Test
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-India Oil Waiver — Sanctions PragmatismOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 94% confidence➡ Verdict: The US Treasury Department's waiver allowing India to purchase Russian oil is either (a) still formally in effect, or (b) has been renewed or replaced by a functionally equivalent authorization as of September 1, 2026. Verifiable via US Treasury OFAC announcements, executive orders, or official statements. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-India Oil Waiver — Sanctions PragmatismArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final19%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-India Oil Waiver — Sanctions Pragmatism
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 94% confidence
➡ Verdict: The US Treasury Department's waiver allowing India to purchase Russian oil is either (a) still formally in effect, or (b) has been renewed or replaced by a functionally equivalent authorization as of September 1, 2026. Verifiable via US Treasury OFAC announcements, executive orders, or official statements. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-India Oil Waiver — Sanctions Pragmatism
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final19%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
19%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/india
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:india
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: india has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US deploy ground combat troops (defined as battalion-sized or larger conventional units, excluding special operations) to Iranian territory by 2026-09-30?Key Event: Iran Ground Troops Debate — The Escalation Trump Can't ContrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verifiable via official DoD announcements, credible media reports of US conventional ground forces operating on Iranian soil, or Congressional notifications under the War Powers Act. Special operations raids do not count — must be battalion-sized (500+) conventional forces deployed to Iranian territory. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Ground Troops Debate — The Escalation Trump Can't ControlArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US deploy ground combat troops (defined as battalion-sized or larger conventional units, excluding special operations) to Iranian territory by 2026-09-30?
Key Event: Iran Ground Troops Debate — The Escalation Trump Can't Contr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verifiable via official DoD announcements, credible media reports of US conventional ground forces operating on Iranian soil, or Congressional notifications under the War Powers Act. Special operations raids do not count — must be battalion-sized (500+) conventional forces deployed to Iranian territory. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Ground Troops Debate — The Escalation Trump Can't Control
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trumpdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the UN-mediated Yemen peace talks scheduled for Geneva in March 2026 fail to produce any ceasefire agreement by 2026-03-31?Key Event: Yemen Escalation — Iran-Saudi Proxy WarOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: The prediction resolves YES if by March 31, 2026, the UN-mediated Geneva peace talks for Yemen either (a) did not convene at all, (b) convened but ended without any signed ceasefire or cessation-of-hostilities agreement, or (c) produced only non-binding statements without operational ceasefire terms. Resolves NO if a signed ceasefire agreement — even partial or temporary — is announced by both the Houthi delegation and the internationally recognized government delegation with UN endorsement by the deadline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisYemen Escalation — Iran-Saudi Proxy WarArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the UN-mediated Yemen peace talks scheduled for Geneva in March 2026 fail to produce any ceasefire agreement by 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Yemen Escalation — Iran-Saudi Proxy War
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: The prediction resolves YES if by March 31, 2026, the UN-mediated Geneva peace talks for Yemen either (a) did not convene at all, (b) convened but ended without any signed ceasefire or cessation-of-hostilities agreement, or (c) produced only non-binding statements without operational ceasefire terms. Resolves NO if a signed ceasefire agreement — even partial or temporary — is announced by both the Houthi delegation and the internationally recognized government delegation with UN endorsement by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Yemen Escalation — Iran-Saudi Proxy War
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: 4c6b36f91662 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Cruz vs. Carlson — Right's Foreign Policy Civil WarOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Tucker Carlson publicly endorses, interviews favorably, or makes statements explicitly supporting at least one Republican primary challenger who is running on a non-interventionist or anti-Middle East intervention platform against an incumbent Republican. Must be a verifiable public statement on his show, podcast, or social media. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisCruz vs. Carlson — Right's Foreign Policy Civil WarArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final8%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Cruz vs. Carlson — Right's Foreign Policy Civil War
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Tucker Carlson publicly endorses, interviews favorably, or makes statements explicitly supporting at least one Republican primary challenger who is running on a non-interventionist or anti-Middle East intervention platform against an incumbent Republican. Must be a verifiable public statement on his show, podcast, or social media. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Cruz vs. Carlson — Right's Foreign Policy Civil War
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final8%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
8%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Strait of Hormuz Mining — Escalation Threatens Global OilOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if no confirmed mine strike (detonation or contact) occurs against any commercial oil tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz between March 11 and June 30, 2026, as reported by Lloyd's List, the US Navy, or major wire services (Reuters/AP). Resolved NO if any such incident is confirmed. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisStrait of Hormuz Mining — Escalation Threatens Global OilArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final46%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Strait of Hormuz Mining — Escalation Threatens Global Oil
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if no confirmed mine strike (detonation or contact) occurs against any commercial oil tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz between March 11 and June 30, 2026, as reported by Lloyd's List, the US Navy, or major wire services (Reuters/AP). Resolved NO if any such incident is confirmed. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Strait of Hormuz Mining — Escalation Threatens Global Oil
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final46%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
46%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 46.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.29
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
dynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the U.S. Senate hold a floor vote on an Iran-related war powers resolution by 2026-06-30?Key Event: War Powers Revolt — Congress vs. Executive Military AuthoritOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: A recorded floor vote (roll call or voice vote) in the U.S. Senate on any resolution invoking the War Powers Act or War Powers Resolution specifically regarding Iran military operations. The vote must occur on or before June 30, 2026. A procedural vote (cloture, motion to table) on such a resolution also counts. Committee votes alone do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisWar Powers Revolt — Congress vs. Executive Military Authority on IranArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the U.S. Senate hold a floor vote on an Iran-related war powers resolution by 2026-06-30?
Key Event: War Powers Revolt — Congress vs. Executive Military Authorit
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: A recorded floor vote (roll call or voice vote) in the U.S. Senate on any resolution invoking the War Powers Act or War Powers Resolution specifically regarding Iran military operations. The vote must occur on or before June 30, 2026. A procedural vote (cloture, motion to table) on such a resolution also counts. Committee votes alone do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
War Powers Revolt — Congress vs. Executive Military Authority on Iran
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Takaichi's Power Day — Japan Pivots to AI-Defense-EnergyOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: A publicly announced contract, memorandum of understanding, or framework agreement between Japan's Ministry of Defense (or a designated defense agency) and Palantir Technologies, as reported by at least two major news outlets (Nikkei, NHK, Reuters, Bloomberg, or equivalent). Informal discussions or unnamed-source reports do not count. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOTakaichi's Power Day — Japan Pivots to AI-Defense-EnergyArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Takaichi's Power Day — Japan Pivots to AI-Defense-Energy
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: A publicly announced contract, memorandum of understanding, or framework agreement between Japan's Ministry of Defense (or a designated defense agency) and Palantir Technologies, as reported by at least two major news outlets (Nikkei, NHK, Reuters, Bloomberg, or equivalent). Informal discussions or unnamed-source reports do not count. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Takaichi's Power Day — Japan Pivots to AI-Defense-Energy
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will WTI crude oil prices remain above $90/barrel on April 30, 2026?Key Event: Iran War Meets Budget Battle — Trump's Two-Front Pressure CaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: WTI crude oil front-month futures contract closing price on April 30, 2026, as reported by NYMEX/CME Group. YES if closing price is above $90.00/barrel; NO if at or below $90.00/barrel. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran War Meets Budget Battle — Trump's Two-Front Pressure CampaignArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will WTI crude oil prices remain above $90/barrel on April 30, 2026?
Key Event: Iran War Meets Budget Battle — Trump's Two-Front Pressure Ca
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: WTI crude oil front-month futures contract closing price on April 30, 2026, as reported by NYMEX/CME Group. YES if closing price is above $90.00/barrel; NO if at or below $90.00/barrel. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran War Meets Budget Battle — Trump's Two-Front Pressure Campaign
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will oil prices (Brent crude) exceed $120 per barrel at any point before April 30, 2026?Key Event: Hormuz Escalation Spiral — When Oil Chokepoints Become BattlOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil futures front-month contract closes above $120.00 per barrel on any single trading day as reported by ICE Futures Europe between March 10 and April 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Escalation Spiral — When Oil Chokepoints Become BattlefieldsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will oil prices (Brent crude) exceed $120 per barrel at any point before April 30, 2026?
Key Event: Hormuz Escalation Spiral — When Oil Chokepoints Become Battl
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil futures front-month contract closes above $120.00 per barrel on any single trading day as reported by ICE Futures Europe between March 10 and April 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Escalation Spiral — When Oil Chokepoints Become Battlefields
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
dynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Saudi Arabia formally agree to participate in or actively support US military strikes against Iran by 2026-06-30?Key Event: Graham's Saudi Ultimatum — Alliance Coercion as Iran War AccOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution requires either: (1) Official Saudi government statement or credible reporting confirming Saudi Arabia has agreed to join or actively support (basing, airspace, direct military participation) US strikes against Iran = YES, or (2) No such agreement is confirmed by June 30, 2026 = NO. Passive non-interference (not actively blocking but not participating) counts as NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGraham's Saudi Ultimatum — Alliance Coercion as Iran War AccelerantArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Saudi Arabia formally agree to participate in or actively support US military strikes against Iran by 2026-06-30?
Key Event: Graham's Saudi Ultimatum — Alliance Coercion as Iran War Acc
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution requires either: (1) Official Saudi government statement or credible reporting confirming Saudi Arabia has agreed to join or actively support (basing, airspace, direct military participation) US strikes against Iran = YES, or (2) No such agreement is confirmed by June 30, 2026 = NO. Passive non-interference (not actively blocking but not participating) counts as NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Graham's Saudi Ultimatum — Alliance Coercion as Iran War Accelerant
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Naval Standoff — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic crisis is defined as any of the following occurring by April 12, 2026: (1) either country recalls its ambassador from the other, (2) either country downgrades its embassy to a chargé d'affaires level, (3) either country formally suspends the military-to-military hotline or other established bilateral diplomatic mechanism, or (4) either country expels diplomatic personnel of the other. Public statements of protest, sanctions, or military posturing alone do not qualify. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Naval Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Naval Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic crisis is defined as any of the following occurring by April 12, 2026: (1) either country recalls its ambassador from the other, (2) either country downgrades its embassy to a chargé d'affaires level, (3) either country formally suspends the military-to-military hotline or other established bilateral diplomatic mechanism, or (4) either country expels diplomatic personnel of the other. Public statements of protest, sanctions, or military posturing alone do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Naval Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions — China's Gray-Zone Escalation SpiraOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if China conducts any of the following by July 1, 2026: (1) kinetic military strikes on Taiwan-controlled territory or military assets, (2) a naval blockade of Taiwan or Taiwan-controlled islands lasting 48+ hours, or (3) military exercises explicitly described by PLA as rehearsals for invasion/reunification operations (not routine training). Verification via official PLA/MND statements, credible international media reporting (Reuters, AP, BBC), and US Department of Defense assessments. NO if Chinese military activity remains limited to drone incursions, air defense identification zone entries, naval transits, and exercises characterized as routine training. → ❌ Missed❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%7% of prediction market capital bets on NOTaiwan Drone Incursions — China's Gray-Zone Escalation Spiral IntensifiesArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions — China's Gray-Zone Escalation Spira
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if China conducts any of the following by July 1, 2026: (1) kinetic military strikes on Taiwan-controlled territory or military assets, (2) a naval blockade of Taiwan or Taiwan-controlled islands lasting 48+ hours, or (3) military exercises explicitly described by PLA as rehearsals for invasion/reunification operations (not routine training). Verification via official PLA/MND statements, credible international media reporting (Reuters, AP, BBC), and US Department of Defense assessments. NO if Chinese military activity remains limited to drone incursions, air defense identification zone entries, naval transits, and exercises characterized as routine training. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%
7% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Taiwan Drone Incursions — China's Gray-Zone Escalation Spiral Intensifies
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Race — OpenAI's Bid to Close the AGIOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: At least three independent, peer-reviewed or institutionally published evaluations (from organizations such as MMLU maintainers, professional certification bodies, or major AI research groups not affiliated with OpenAI) must confirm that GPT-6 scores above the 95th percentile of human test-takers on at least 3 of the 5 specified professional exams. Self-reported benchmarks from OpenAI do not count. Evaluations must be published before 2026-07-01. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 and the Reasoning Race — OpenAI's Bid to Close the AGI GapArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final13%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Race — OpenAI's Bid to Close the AGI
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least three independent, peer-reviewed or institutionally published evaluations (from organizations such as MMLU maintainers, professional certification bodies, or major AI research groups not affiliated with OpenAI) must confirm that GPT-6 scores above the 95th percentile of human test-takers on at least 3 of the 5 specified professional exams. Self-reported benchmarks from OpenAI do not count. Evaluations must be published before 2026-07-01. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 and the Reasoning Race — OpenAI's Bid to Close the AGI Gap
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final13%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
13%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral TesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal UN Security Council vote (not merely a discussion or emergency session) on a new resolution that specifically includes sanctions measures related to Russia's 2026 nuclear-capable exercises near the Ukraine border. The vote must occur by June 30, 2026. A Russian or Chinese veto still counts as a vote occurring — the criterion is whether the resolution reaches a vote, not whether it passes. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red LinesArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final6%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral Tes
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal UN Security Council vote (not merely a discussion or emergency session) on a new resolution that specifically includes sanctions measures related to Russia's 2026 nuclear-capable exercises near the Ukraine border. The vote must occur by June 30, 2026. A Russian or Chinese veto still counts as a vote occurring — the criterion is whether the resolution reaches a vote, not whether it passes. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red Lines
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final6%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
6%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Regulation — The Coordination Failure Shaping theOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A treaty is considered 'signed' if representatives of at least 30 UN member states (including at least 2 of the 3 major AI powers: US, EU as a bloc, China) have formally signed a legally binding international agreement specifically governing AI development and deployment. Non-binding resolutions, voluntary commitments, joint declarations, and bilateral agreements do not qualify. → ❌ Missed❓ Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGlobal AI Regulation — The Coordination Failure Shaping the Next DecadeArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Regulation — The Coordination Failure Shaping the
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A treaty is considered 'signed' if representatives of at least 30 UN member states (including at least 2 of the 3 major AI powers: US, EU as a bloc, China) have formally signed a legally binding international agreement specifically governing AI development and deployment. Non-binding resolutions, voluntary commitments, joint declarations, and bilateral agreements do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Global AI Regulation — The Coordination Failure Shaping the Next Decade
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Reasoning — The Enterprise AI Inflection PoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 9% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if credible survey data (Gartner, Forrester, McKinsey, or equivalent) published by 2027-03-31 shows that 50% or more of Fortune 500 companies have deployed GPT-6 specifically (not just any OpenAI model) in at least one production business process (not pilot/evaluation). Resolved NO if no such data exists or the threshold is not met. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 Multimodal Reasoning — The Enterprise AI Inflection PointArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final13%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Reasoning — The Enterprise AI Inflection Po
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 9% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if credible survey data (Gartner, Forrester, McKinsey, or equivalent) published by 2027-03-31 shows that 50% or more of Fortune 500 companies have deployed GPT-6 specifically (not just any OpenAI model) in at least one production business process (not pilot/evaluation). Resolved NO if no such data exists or the threshold is not met. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 Multimodal Reasoning — The Enterprise AI Inflection Point
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final13%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
13%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could ReOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A naval blockade is defined as China's military forces physically interdicting, boarding, turning back, or sinking at least one commercial (non-military) vessel attempting to transit to or from a Taiwanese port, AND/OR China officially declaring a maritime exclusion zone that prohibits commercial shipping to Taiwan. Isolated military exercises that do not physically prevent commercial transit do not qualify. Resolution source: Reuters, AP, or official PLA/Taiwan MOD statements. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Pacific OrderArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could Re
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A naval blockade is defined as China's military forces physically interdicting, boarding, turning back, or sinking at least one commercial (non-military) vessel attempting to transit to or from a Taiwanese port, AND/OR China officially declaring a maritime exclusion zone that prohibits commercial shipping to Taiwan. Isolated military exercises that do not physically prevent commercial transit do not qualify. Resolution source: Reuters, AP, or official PLA/Taiwan MOD statements. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Pacific Order
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Ukraine receive a confirmed shipment of air defense interceptors (Patriot, NASAMS, or equivalent) sourced through a Middle Eastern intermediary by 2026-07-01?Key Event: Ukraine's Drone-for-Missiles Gambit — Arms Barter Rewrites AOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed by either Ukrainian official sources, credible defense media (Reuters, AFP, Jane's Defence), or the intermediary state that air defense interceptors have been physically delivered to Ukraine as part of the drone-expertise-for-missiles exchange framework announced in March 2026. Confirmation must specify the arrangement is linked to the Middle East drone cooperation program, not existing bilateral aid. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUkraine's Drone-for-Missiles Gambit — Arms Barter Rewrites Alliance LogicArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Ukraine receive a confirmed shipment of air defense interceptors (Patriot, NASAMS, or equivalent) sourced through a Middle Eastern intermediary by 2026-07-01?
Key Event: Ukraine's Drone-for-Missiles Gambit — Arms Barter Rewrites A
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed by either Ukrainian official sources, credible defense media (Reuters, AFP, Jane's Defence), or the intermediary state that air defense interceptors have been physically delivered to Ukraine as part of the drone-expertise-for-missiles exchange framework announced in March 2026. Confirmation must specify the arrangement is linked to the Middle East drone cooperation program, not existing bilateral aid. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Ukraine's Drone-for-Missiles Gambit — Arms Barter Rewrites Alliance Logic
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ukraine
Referenced knowledge
entity:ukraine
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: EU AI Act vs. Claude 5 — Regulation Collides with the FrontiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: The European Commission publishes an official legislative proposal, delegated act, or implementing act that formally amends the GPAI-specific provisions (Articles 51-56) of the EU AI Act. Implementation guidelines, non-binding guidance, or informal interpretations do NOT count — it must be a formal legal instrument modifying the Act's text or its binding technical annexes related to GPAI models. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOEU AI Act vs. Claude 5 — Regulation Collides with the FrontierArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: EU AI Act vs. Claude 5 — Regulation Collides with the Fronti
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: The European Commission publishes an official legislative proposal, delegated act, or implementing act that formally amends the GPAI-specific provisions (Articles 51-56) of the EU AI Act. Implementation guidelines, non-binding guidance, or informal interpretations do NOT count — it must be a formal legal instrument modifying the Act's text or its binding technical annexes related to GPAI models. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
EU AI Act vs. Claude 5 — Regulation Collides with the Frontier
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Meets Retail FOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: Check Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap at 23:59 UTC on June 30, 2026. If the price is $120,000.00 or above, the answer is YES. If below $120,000.00, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Meets Retail FragilityArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Meets Retail F
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: Check Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap at 23:59 UTC on June 30, 2026. If the price is $120,000.00 or above, the answer is YES. If below $120,000.00, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Meets Retail Fragility
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the UN-brokered Geneva peace talks for Yemen fail to produce any ceasefire agreement by 2026-03-31?Key Event: Yemen Escalation — Iran-Saudi Proxy War Threatens to CollapsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Judged YES if by March 31, 2026, the Geneva talks either (a) did not convene as scheduled, (b) convened but ended without a signed ceasefire document, or (c) produced only a non-binding statement of principles without operational ceasefire terms. Judged NO if a signed ceasefire agreement with specific terms (geographic scope, monitoring mechanism, timeline) is announced by both parties by the deadline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisYemen Escalation — Iran-Saudi Proxy War Threatens to Collapse UN Peace ArchitectureArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the UN-brokered Geneva peace talks for Yemen fail to produce any ceasefire agreement by 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Yemen Escalation — Iran-Saudi Proxy War Threatens to Collaps
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Judged YES if by March 31, 2026, the Geneva talks either (a) did not convene as scheduled, (b) convened but ended without a signed ceasefire document, or (c) produced only a non-binding statement of principles without operational ceasefire terms. Judged NO if a signed ceasefire agreement with specific terms (geographic scope, monitoring mechanism, timeline) is announced by both parties by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Yemen Escalation — Iran-Saudi Proxy War Threatens to Collapse UN Peace Architecture
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 91.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: ff949d93e01f (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will at least one naval mine be confirmed detected or detonated in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes by 2026-04-30?Key Event: Hormuz Mine War — The Escalation Spiral That Threatens 20% oOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed report from any national navy (US, UK, France, or regional), international maritime organization (IMO), or major wire service (Reuters, AP, AFP) of a naval mine detected or detonated in the recognized shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz between March 11, 2026 and April 30, 2026. The mine must be in the active shipping channel, not in Iranian territorial waters outside the lanes. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Mine War — The Escalation Spiral That Threatens 20% of Global OilArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will at least one naval mine be confirmed detected or detonated in the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes by 2026-04-30?
Key Event: Hormuz Mine War — The Escalation Spiral That Threatens 20% o
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed report from any national navy (US, UK, France, or regional), international maritime organization (IMO), or major wire service (Reuters, AP, AFP) of a naval mine detected or detonated in the recognized shipping lanes of the Strait of Hormuz between March 11, 2026 and April 30, 2026. The mine must be in the active shipping channel, not in Iranian territorial waters outside the lanes. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Mine War — The Escalation Spiral That Threatens 20% of Global Oil
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
dynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Cruz vs. Anthropic Ban — When AI Politics Fractures the RighOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: The ban is considered 'fully in effect' if no federal agency has received a waiver, exemption, or modification allowing use of Anthropic products. If the ban has been narrowed, replaced with conditions, or if agencies have been granted exceptions, the answer is NO (ban is NOT fully in effect). Verification via official OMB guidance, executive orders, or public Congressional testimony. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisCruz vs. Anthropic Ban — When AI Politics Fractures the RightArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Cruz vs. Anthropic Ban — When AI Politics Fractures the Righ
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: The ban is considered 'fully in effect' if no federal agency has received a waiver, exemption, or modification allowing use of Anthropic products. If the ban has been narrowed, replaced with conditions, or if agencies have been granted exceptions, the answer is NO (ban is NOT fully in effect). Verification via official OMB guidance, executive orders, or public Congressional testimony. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Cruz vs. Anthropic Ban — When AI Politics Fractures the Right
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump/fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:trumpentity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions — China's Gray-Zone Escalation IntenOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if the PLA officially announces and conducts a named military exercise (not routine patrols or unnamed drone operations) at brigade-level or above in the Taiwan Strait area between 2026-03-12 and 2026-07-01. Source: PLA Daily, Xinhua, or confirmation by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense. Resolved NO if no such exercise is announced and confirmed by the deadline. → ❌ Missed❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%7% of prediction market capital bets on NOTaiwan Drone Incursions — China's Gray-Zone Escalation IntensifiesArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions — China's Gray-Zone Escalation Inten
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if the PLA officially announces and conducts a named military exercise (not routine patrols or unnamed drone operations) at brigade-level or above in the Taiwan Strait area between 2026-03-12 and 2026-07-01. Source: PLA Daily, Xinhua, or confirmation by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense. Resolved NO if no such exercise is announced and confirmed by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%
7% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Taiwan Drone Incursions — China's Gray-Zone Escalation Intensifies
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Brent crude oil prices exceed $120 per barrel at any point before April 30, 2026?Key Event: Strait of Hormuz — The Escalation Spiral That Threatens GlobOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: Brent crude front-month futures contract closes above $120.00 USD per barrel on any single trading day between March 12, 2026 and April 30, 2026, as reported by ICE Futures Europe. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisStrait of Hormuz — The Escalation Spiral That Threatens Global EnergyArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Brent crude oil prices exceed $120 per barrel at any point before April 30, 2026?
Key Event: Strait of Hormuz — The Escalation Spiral That Threatens Glob
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: Brent crude front-month futures contract closes above $120.00 USD per barrel on any single trading day between March 12, 2026 and April 30, 2026, as reported by ICE Futures Europe. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Strait of Hormuz — The Escalation Spiral That Threatens Global Energy
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
dynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Race — OpenAI's Bid for Domain-LevelOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: An independent evaluation (not conducted by OpenAI) published on arXiv, by a university research group, or by a recognized AI benchmarking organization (e.g., LMSYS, Hugging Face, METR) shows GPT-6 scoring above 90% accuracy on the GPQA Diamond benchmark. The evaluation must use the standard GPQA Diamond question set without modifications. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 and the Reasoning Race — OpenAI's Bid for Domain-Level AGIArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final13%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Race — OpenAI's Bid for Domain-Level
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: An independent evaluation (not conducted by OpenAI) published on arXiv, by a university research group, or by a recognized AI benchmarking organization (e.g., LMSYS, Hugging Face, METR) shows GPT-6 scoring above 90% accuracy on the GPQA Diamond benchmark. The evaluation must use the standard GPQA Diamond question set without modifications. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 and the Reasoning Race — OpenAI's Bid for Domain-Level AGI
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final13%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
13%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Regulation — The Coordination Failure Reshaping TeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A treaty or international agreement on AI regulation that (1) contains legally binding obligations (not voluntary commitments), (2) is signed by at least 10 UN member states, and (3) includes signatures from at least 2 of the following: United States, People's Republic of China, any EU member state. Signing means formal signature by authorized representatives; ratification is not required by the deadline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Regulation — The Coordination Failure Reshaping Tech GovernanceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final26%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Regulation — The Coordination Failure Reshaping Te
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A treaty or international agreement on AI regulation that (1) contains legally binding obligations (not voluntary commitments), (2) is signed by at least 10 UN member states, and (3) includes signatures from at least 2 of the following: United States, People's Republic of China, any EU member state. Signing means formal signature by authorized representatives; ratification is not required by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Regulation — The Coordination Failure Reshaping Tech Governance
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final26%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
26%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Iran Strikes — Pentagon's Mixed Signals Reveal EscalationOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal ceasefire or framework agreement is defined as: (1) an official announcement by both the US and Iranian governments of a mutual cessation of hostilities, OR (2) a signed or publicly announced framework document outlining terms for nuclear negotiations and military de-escalation. Informal back-channel contacts or unilateral declarations do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Iran Strikes — Pentagon's Mixed Signals Reveal Escalation TrapArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final32%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Iran Strikes — Pentagon's Mixed Signals Reveal Escalation
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal ceasefire or framework agreement is defined as: (1) an official announcement by both the US and Iranian governments of a mutual cessation of hostilities, OR (2) a signed or publicly announced framework document outlining terms for nuclear negotiations and military de-escalation. Informal back-channel contacts or unilateral declarations do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Iran Strikes — Pentagon's Mixed Signals Reveal Escalation Trap
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final32%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
32%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 68.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.10
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the U.S. formally announce any relaxation of Russian oil sanctions (price cap modification, entity de-listing, or enforcement guidance change) by 2026-06-30?Key Event: Russian Oil Sanctions Meet Iran War — Contradictions of DualOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal U.S. government announcement — Treasury OFAC notice, executive order, or official policy statement — that explicitly modifies, relaxes, or suspends any component of Russian oil sanctions (including price cap level, entity listings, or enforcement guidance). Quiet non-enforcement does not count; there must be a documented official action. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussian Oil Sanctions Meet Iran War — Contradictions of Dual-Front Energy PolicyArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the U.S. formally announce any relaxation of Russian oil sanctions (price cap modification, entity de-listing, or enforcement guidance change) by 2026-06-30?
Key Event: Russian Oil Sanctions Meet Iran War — Contradictions of Dual
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal U.S. government announcement — Treasury OFAC notice, executive order, or official policy statement — that explicitly modifies, relaxes, or suspends any component of Russian oil sanctions (including price cap level, entity listings, or enforcement guidance). Quiet non-enforcement does not count; there must be a documented official action. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russian Oil Sanctions Meet Iran War — Contradictions of Dual-Front Energy Policy
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/iran/india
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:iranentity:india
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: india has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the U.S. Congress hold a formal vote on an Iran-specific war powers resolution (authorization or limitation) by 2026-06-30?Key Event: GOP Iran Rift — When War Hawks Meet MAGA PopulismOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal floor vote (not committee only) in either the House or Senate on a resolution specifically addressing authorization, limitation, or prohibition of U.S. military operations in Iran. Must reach a floor vote — introduction alone does not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGOP Iran Rift — When War Hawks Meet MAGA PopulismArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the U.S. Congress hold a formal vote on an Iran-specific war powers resolution (authorization or limitation) by 2026-06-30?
Key Event: GOP Iran Rift — When War Hawks Meet MAGA Populism
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal floor vote (not committee only) in either the House or Senate on a resolution specifically addressing authorization, limitation, or prohibition of U.S. military operations in Iran. Must reach a floor vote — introduction alone does not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GOP Iran Rift — When War Hawks Meet MAGA Populism
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Ukraine receive a confirmed delivery of air defense interceptor missiles sourced from or facilitated by a Middle Eastern partner state by 2026-06-30?Key Event: Ukraine's Drone-for-Missiles Gambit — The New Arms Barter EcOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: A credible news report, official government announcement, or verified defense intelligence source confirms that Ukraine has received air defense interceptor missiles (Patriot, NASAMS, or equivalent) where a Middle Eastern state was either the direct supplier or a confirmed facilitator of the transfer, by June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUkraine's Drone-for-Missiles Gambit — The New Arms Barter EconomyArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Ukraine receive a confirmed delivery of air defense interceptor missiles sourced from or facilitated by a Middle Eastern partner state by 2026-06-30?
Key Event: Ukraine's Drone-for-Missiles Gambit — The New Arms Barter Ec
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: A credible news report, official government announcement, or verified defense intelligence source confirms that Ukraine has received air defense interceptor missiles (Patriot, NASAMS, or equivalent) where a Middle Eastern state was either the direct supplier or a confirmed facilitator of the transfer, by June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Ukraine's Drone-for-Missiles Gambit — The New Arms Barter Economy
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ukraine
Referenced knowledge
entity:ukraine
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Anthropic vs Pentagon — AI Surveillance and the Corporate EtOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if Anthropic publicly announces a government-focused division, subsidiary, or product line specifically for public sector clients, OR if Anthropic achieves FedRAMP authorization (any level) for any Claude-based product, as reported by a major tech news outlet (TechCrunch, The Verge, Bloomberg, Reuters, The Hill) or Anthropic's official communications by December 31, 2026. NO if neither of these events occurs by that date. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAnthropic vs Pentagon — AI Surveillance and the Corporate Ethics ReckoningArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Anthropic vs Pentagon — AI Surveillance and the Corporate Et
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if Anthropic publicly announces a government-focused division, subsidiary, or product line specifically for public sector clients, OR if Anthropic achieves FedRAMP authorization (any level) for any Claude-based product, as reported by a major tech news outlet (TechCrunch, The Verge, Bloomberg, Reuters, The Hill) or Anthropic's official communications by December 31, 2026. NO if neither of these events occurs by that date. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Anthropic vs Pentagon — AI Surveillance and the Corporate Ethics Reckoning
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum/fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumentity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China conduct a major military exercise (50+ naval vessels or 100+ aircraft sorties in a single day) in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea by 2026-06-30 in response to the U.S.-Iran military campaign?Key Event: Iran Strikes as Great-Power Signal — How U.S. Force ProjectiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reporting from at least two credible sources (Reuters, AP, Pentagon, PLA official statements, or Taiwan MND) confirming a PLA exercise involving 50+ naval vessels OR 100+ aircraft sorties in a single day in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea between March 12 and June 30, 2026, that is explicitly or implicitly linked to the U.S.-Iran military operations by official Chinese statements or credible analyst assessments. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Strikes as Great-Power Signal — How U.S. Force Projection Reshapes the China-Russia CalculusArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China conduct a major military exercise (50+ naval vessels or 100+ aircraft sorties in a single day) in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea by 2026-06-30 in response to the U.S.-Iran military campaign?
Key Event: Iran Strikes as Great-Power Signal — How U.S. Force Projecti
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reporting from at least two credible sources (Reuters, AP, Pentagon, PLA official statements, or Taiwan MND) confirming a PLA exercise involving 50+ naval vessels OR 100+ aircraft sorties in a single day in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea between March 12 and June 30, 2026, that is explicitly or implicitly linked to the U.S.-Iran military operations by official Chinese statements or credible analyst assessments. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Strikes as Great-Power Signal — How U.S. Force Projection Reshapes the China-Russia Calculus
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/china/taiwan
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:chinaentity:taiwan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Qantas international economy airfares (Sydney-London route) remain at least 10% above their February 2026 levels by 2026-09-30?Key Event: Qantas Fare Hikes — When War Reprices the Cost of DistanceOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: Compare average published Qantas economy fare for Sydney-London (direct or via Perth) as of September 30, 2026 against the average fare level in February 2026 (pre-hike). If the September fare is 10% or more above the February fare (using publicly available fare data from Qantas.com or aviation fare tracking services like Google Flights), the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisQantas Fare Hikes — When War Reprices the Cost of DistanceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Qantas international economy airfares (Sydney-London route) remain at least 10% above their February 2026 levels by 2026-09-30?
Key Event: Qantas Fare Hikes — When War Reprices the Cost of Distance
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: Compare average published Qantas economy fare for Sydney-London (direct or via Perth) as of September 30, 2026 against the average fare level in February 2026 (pre-hike). If the September fare is 10% or more above the February fare (using publicly available fare data from Qantas.com or aviation fare tracking services like Google Flights), the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Qantas Fare Hikes — When War Reprices the Cost of Distance
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will WTI crude oil price exceed $100/barrel at any point before 2026-06-30?Key Event: Trump's Iran-Economy Vise — War Costs Meet Labor Market FragOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: WTI crude oil front-month futures contract closes above $100.00/barrel on any trading day between 2026-03-12 and 2026-06-30, as reported by the CME Group / NYMEX official settlement price. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump's Iran-Economy Vise — War Costs Meet Labor Market FragilityArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will WTI crude oil price exceed $100/barrel at any point before 2026-06-30?
Key Event: Trump's Iran-Economy Vise — War Costs Meet Labor Market Frag
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: WTI crude oil front-month futures contract closes above $100.00/barrel on any trading day between 2026-03-12 and 2026-06-30, as reported by the CME Group / NYMEX official settlement price. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump's Iran-Economy Vise — War Costs Meet Labor Market Fragility
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Takaichi's Growth Strategy — Economic Security vs Fiscal ConOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 89% confidence➡ Verdict: By June 30, 2026, confirmation via the Prime Minister's Office website, Cabinet Office website, or major news outlets that the Headquarters for Japan's Economic Growth Strategy or related cabinet ministers have made a cabinet decision or formally announced a growth strategy policy document/package specifying a total of 5 trillion yen or more in public-private investment targets. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTakaichi's Growth Strategy — Economic Security vs Fiscal ConstraintArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Takaichi's Growth Strategy — Economic Security vs Fiscal Con
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 89% confidence
➡ Verdict: By June 30, 2026, confirmation via the Prime Minister's Office website, Cabinet Office website, or major news outlets that the Headquarters for Japan's Economic Growth Strategy or related cabinet ministers have made a cabinet decision or formally announced a growth strategy policy document/package specifying a total of 5 trillion yen or more in public-private investment targets. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Takaichi's Growth Strategy — Economic Security vs Fiscal Constraint
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 11.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.79)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will US military strikes against Iran continue beyond June 30, 2026?Key Event: Trump's Iran Endgame — Imperial Overreach Meets Economic BloOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if any credible news source (Reuters, AP, NYT, Guardian, BBC) reports US military strikes, airstrikes, or offensive operations against Iranian territory or Iranian military assets occurring after June 30, 2026. Resolved NO if all US offensive military operations against Iran have verifiably ceased by June 30, 2026, as confirmed by DoD statements or credible reporting. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump's Iran Endgame — Imperial Overreach Meets Economic BlowbackArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will US military strikes against Iran continue beyond June 30, 2026?
Key Event: Trump's Iran Endgame — Imperial Overreach Meets Economic Blo
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if any credible news source (Reuters, AP, NYT, Guardian, BBC) reports US military strikes, airstrikes, or offensive operations against Iranian territory or Iranian military assets occurring after June 30, 2026. Resolved NO if all US offensive military operations against Iran have verifiably ceased by June 30, 2026, as confirmed by DoD statements or credible reporting. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump's Iran Endgame — Imperial Overreach Meets Economic Blowback
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the EU formally invoke Article 42.7 (mutual defense clause) in response to the Iran drone strike on Cyprus by 2026-04-09?Key Event: Cyprus Under Fire — Iran's Drone Strike Drags Europe Into MiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: The Council of the European Union or European Council formally invokes or references Article 42.7 TEU in an official statement, decision, or conclusions document specifically in response to the Iranian drone strike on Cyprus. Informal political statements or bilateral commitments do not count — there must be an official institutional act referencing Article 42.7. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisCyprus Under Fire — Iran's Drone Strike Drags Europe Into Middle East WarArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the EU formally invoke Article 42.7 (mutual defense clause) in response to the Iran drone strike on Cyprus by 2026-04-09?
Key Event: Cyprus Under Fire — Iran's Drone Strike Drags Europe Into Mi
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: The Council of the European Union or European Council formally invokes or references Article 42.7 TEU in an official statement, decision, or conclusions document specifically in response to the Iranian drone strike on Cyprus. Informal political statements or bilateral commitments do not count — there must be an official institutional act referencing Article 42.7. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Cyprus Under Fire — Iran's Drone Strike Drags Europe Into Middle East War
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: f332a896d202 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the Trump administration authorize a release of at least 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by 2026-04-30?Key Event: SPR vs. Iran Crisis — Political Weaponization of America's OOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Official U.S. Department of Energy announcement or executive order authorizing the release of 10 million or more barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve between March 12, 2026 and April 30, 2026. The authorization must be publicly documented; verbal statements of intent do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSPR vs. Iran Crisis — Political Weaponization of America's Oil ReserveArticle-backed判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the Trump administration authorize a release of at least 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve by 2026-04-30?
Key Event: SPR vs. Iran Crisis — Political Weaponization of America's O
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Official U.S. Department of Energy announcement or executive order authorizing the release of 10 million or more barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve between March 12, 2026 and April 30, 2026. The authorization must be publicly documented; verbal statements of intent do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
SPR vs. Iran Crisis — Political Weaponization of America's Oil Reserve
Article-backed
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trumpentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6's Multimodal Mastery — The Race for Creative AIOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: GPT-6 is considered 'dominant' if it holds more than 50% market share in the professional creative AI tools segment as measured by revenue, API usage, or enterprise adoption surveys from credible sources (e.g., Gartner, IDC, or equivalent industry reports) by December 31, 2026. If no such data is available, the question resolves based on whether GPT-6 is integrated as the primary AI model in at least 3 of the top 5 creative software platforms (Adobe Creative Cloud, Canva, Figma, Autodesk, or equivalent) by the deadline. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6's Multimodal Mastery — The Race for Creative AIArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6's Multimodal Mastery — The Race for Creative AI
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: GPT-6 is considered 'dominant' if it holds more than 50% market share in the professional creative AI tools segment as measured by revenue, API usage, or enterprise adoption surveys from credible sources (e.g., Gartner, IDC, or equivalent industry reports) by December 31, 2026. If no such data is available, the question resolves based on whether GPT-6 is integrated as the primary AI model in at least 3 of the top 5 creative software platforms (Adobe Creative Cloud, Canva, Figma, Autodesk, or equivalent) by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6's Multimodal Mastery — The Race for Creative AI
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Iran launch a direct military or cyber retaliatory attack attributed to it (by Western intelligence agencies or Iran's own acknowledgment) against Israeli targets by 2026-03-28?Key Event: Iran-Israel Cyber Escalation — The Shadow War Goes KineticOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A direct attack is defined as a cyber operation disrupting Israeli infrastructure or a kinetic strike (missile, drone, or special operations) on Israeli territory or assets, publicly attributed to Iran by at least two Western intelligence agencies or claimed by Iran itself. Proxy attacks by Hezbollah, Houthis, or Iraqi militias do NOT qualify unless Iran explicitly claims command responsibility. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Israel Cyber Escalation — The Shadow War Goes KineticArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Iran launch a direct military or cyber retaliatory attack attributed to it (by Western intelligence agencies or Iran's own acknowledgment) against Israeli targets by 2026-03-28?
Key Event: Iran-Israel Cyber Escalation — The Shadow War Goes Kinetic
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A direct attack is defined as a cyber operation disrupting Israeli infrastructure or a kinetic strike (missile, drone, or special operations) on Israeli territory or assets, publicly attributed to Iran by at least two Western intelligence agencies or claimed by Iran itself. Proxy attacks by Hezbollah, Houthis, or Iraqi militias do NOT qualify unless Iran explicitly claims command responsibility. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Israel Cyber Escalation — The Shadow War Goes Kinetic
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: bf4ba9a4b90e (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Cuba War Powers Resolution — Congress Draws the Line on ExecOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: A recorded Senate floor vote (roll call or voice vote) on the specific war powers resolution filed by Sens. Kaine, Gallego, and Schiff regarding Cuba military action must occur by September 30, 2026. Procedural votes (cloture, motion to table) count only if they are on the resolution itself, not on unrelated legislation. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisCuba War Powers Resolution — Congress Draws the Line on Executive OverreachArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final10%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Cuba War Powers Resolution — Congress Draws the Line on Exec
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: A recorded Senate floor vote (roll call or voice vote) on the specific war powers resolution filed by Sens. Kaine, Gallego, and Schiff regarding Cuba military action must occur by September 30, 2026. Procedural votes (cloture, motion to table) count only if they are on the resolution itself, not on unrelated legislation. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Cuba War Powers Resolution — Congress Draws the Line on Executive Overreach
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final10%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
10%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia Oil Sanctions Relief — Alliance Fracture as Energy WeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 87% confidence➡ Verdict: By April 30, 2026, the US government has either: (a) formally extended the 30-day sanctions relief period, (b) issued a new executive order providing equivalent or broader sanctions relief on Russian oil, or (c) implemented administrative changes (e.g., expanded license exceptions, reduced enforcement guidance) that effectively maintain the eased sanctions posture. If full pre-March 13 sanctions enforcement is restored with no replacement easing measures by April 30, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia Oil Sanctions Relief — Alliance Fracture as Energy Weapon BoomerangsArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia Oil Sanctions Relief — Alliance Fracture as Energy We
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 87% confidence
➡ Verdict: By April 30, 2026, the US government has either: (a) formally extended the 30-day sanctions relief period, (b) issued a new executive order providing equivalent or broader sanctions relief on Russian oil, or (c) implemented administrative changes (e.g., expanded license exceptions, reduced enforcement guidance) that effectively maintain the eased sanctions posture. If full pre-March 13 sanctions enforcement is restored with no replacement easing measures by April 30, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia Oil Sanctions Relief — Alliance Fracture as Energy Weapon Boomerangs
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 87.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.02)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Iran War of Attrition — Why Imperial Overreach Favors TehOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: A publicly announced ceasefire, mutual halt to direct military operations, or formal diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran (bilateral or mediated) that results in a sustained cessation of direct US strikes on Iranian territory and Iranian proxy attacks on US forces for at least 14 consecutive days. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Iran War of Attrition — Why Imperial Overreach Favors Tehran's ClockArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Iran War of Attrition — Why Imperial Overreach Favors Teh
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: A publicly announced ceasefire, mutual halt to direct military operations, or formal diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran (bilateral or mediated) that results in a sustained cessation of direct US strikes on Iranian territory and Iranian proxy attacks on US forces for at least 14 consecutive days. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Iran War of Attrition — Why Imperial Overreach Favors Tehran's Clock
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Japan's FY2026 initial budget pass the House of Representatives by March 31, 2026?Key Event: Takaichi's Sunday Agenda — Japan's Growth Strategy Meets IMFOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: The FY2026 general account budget bill receives a majority vote in the House of Representatives by March 31, 2026. Passage is confirmed by official Diet records. Supplementary budgets or continuing resolutions do not count — the initial budget bill itself must pass. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTakaichi's Sunday Agenda — Japan's Growth Strategy Meets IMF ScrutinyArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Japan's FY2026 initial budget pass the House of Representatives by March 31, 2026?
Key Event: Takaichi's Sunday Agenda — Japan's Growth Strategy Meets IMF
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: The FY2026 general account budget bill receives a majority vote in the House of Representatives by March 31, 2026. Passage is confirmed by official Diet records. Supplementary budgets or continuing resolutions do not count — the initial budget bill itself must pass. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Takaichi's Sunday Agenda — Japan's Growth Strategy Meets IMF Scrutiny
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/imf
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:imf
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: imf has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: 6825e2c0b6dc (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran School Strike — Budget Cuts Meet Battlefield ConsequencOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Any enacted federal legislation (signed into law or veto-overridden) that specifically limits, restricts, or requires congressional approval for executive branch efficiency mandates (DOGE or equivalent) affecting Department of Defense uniformed or civilian personnel levels, targeting/intelligence analyst positions, or military readiness-related staffing. Must be enacted law, not merely introduced or passed by one chamber. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran School Strike — Budget Cuts Meet Battlefield ConsequencesArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final32%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran School Strike — Budget Cuts Meet Battlefield Consequenc
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Any enacted federal legislation (signed into law or veto-overridden) that specifically limits, restricts, or requires congressional approval for executive branch efficiency mandates (DOGE or equivalent) affecting Department of Defense uniformed or civilian personnel levels, targeting/intelligence analyst positions, or military readiness-related staffing. Must be enacted law, not merely introduced or passed by one chamber. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran School Strike — Budget Cuts Meet Battlefield Consequences
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final32%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
32%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 68.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.10
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A formally acknowledged military engagement is defined as an exchange of weapons fire (kinetic action including guns, missiles, or directed energy weapons) between US military forces and Chinese military forces (PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, or Chinese Coast Guard operating under CMC authority) that is confirmed by official statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense. Water cannon use, ramming, or electronic warfare do not qualify. The engagement must occur in or over the South China Sea between March 14, 2026 and April 14, 2026. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formally acknowledged military engagement is defined as an exchange of weapons fire (kinetic action including guns, missiles, or directed energy weapons) between US military forces and Chinese military forces (PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, or Chinese Coast Guard operating under CMC authority) that is confirmed by official statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense. Water cannon use, ramming, or electronic warfare do not qualify. The engagement must occur in or over the South China Sea between March 14, 2026 and April 14, 2026. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drill Threat — Escalation Spiral Tests NATOOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two of the following sources — Russian Ministry of Defense official communications, Western intelligence assessments cited by major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC), or commercial satellite imagery analysis (Maxar, Planet Labs) — documenting the execution of nuclear-capable missile system drills (Iskander-M, RS-26, or strategic bomber exercises) within 150 km of the Ukrainian border, occurring between March 14 and April 13, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drill Threat — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red LinesArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drill Threat — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two of the following sources — Russian Ministry of Defense official communications, Western intelligence assessments cited by major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC), or commercial satellite imagery analysis (Maxar, Planet Labs) — documenting the execution of nuclear-capable missile system drills (Iskander-M, RS-26, or strategic bomber exercises) within 150 km of the Ukrainian border, occurring between March 14 and April 13, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drill Threat — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red Lines
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: DHS Shutdown Meets Iran War Costs — America's Dual Fiscal CrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: A bill funding the Department of Homeland Security — either full-year appropriations or a continuing resolution of any duration — is signed into law by the President by April 15, 2026, ending the current funding lapse. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisDHS Shutdown Meets Iran War Costs — America's Dual Fiscal Crisis DeepensArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: DHS Shutdown Meets Iran War Costs — America's Dual Fiscal Cr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: A bill funding the Department of Homeland Security — either full-year appropriations or a continuing resolution of any duration — is signed into law by the President by April 15, 2026, ending the current funding lapse. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
DHS Shutdown Meets Iran War Costs — America's Dual Fiscal Crisis Deepens
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal military conflict is defined as a confirmed exchange of weapons fire (including missiles, gunfire, or directed energy weapons causing damage) between uniformed US and Chinese military forces in the South China Sea or adjacent waters. Accidental collisions, water cannon incidents by coast guard, or cyber operations do not qualify. Confirmation must come from official government statements or verified reporting by at least two major international news agencies. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal military conflict is defined as a confirmed exchange of weapons fire (including missiles, gunfire, or directed energy weapons causing damage) between uniformed US and Chinese military forces in the South China Sea or adjacent waters. Accidental collisions, water cannon incidents by coast guard, or cyber operations do not qualify. Confirmation must come from official government statements or verified reporting by at least two major international news agencies. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO collectively approve a new dedicated air defense package for Ukraine (including at least one additional Patriot battery commitment) by 2026-03-31?Key Event: Kyiv Under Siege — NATO's Air Defense Dilemma Exposes AllianOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal NATO communiqué, joint statement by at least 3 NATO member defense ministers, or verified official announcement confirming commitment to transfer at least one additional Patriot battery (or equivalent tier-1 air defense system) to Ukraine, announced on or before March 31, 2026. Bilateral pledges from individual nations count only if they are part of a coordinated NATO-framework initiative. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisKyiv Under Siege — NATO's Air Defense Dilemma Exposes Alliance FracturesArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO collectively approve a new dedicated air defense package for Ukraine (including at least one additional Patriot battery commitment) by 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Kyiv Under Siege — NATO's Air Defense Dilemma Exposes Allian
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal NATO communiqué, joint statement by at least 3 NATO member defense ministers, or verified official announcement confirming commitment to transfer at least one additional Patriot battery (or equivalent tier-1 air defense system) to Ukraine, announced on or before March 31, 2026. Bilateral pledges from individual nations count only if they are part of a coordinated NATO-framework initiative. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Kyiv Under Siege — NATO's Air Defense Dilemma Exposes Alliance Fractures
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ukraine/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:ukraineentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: fc5312146cb9 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drill Threat — The Escalation Spiral That COur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 87% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from official Russian defense ministry statements, independent satellite imagery analysis (e.g., from commercial providers or Western intelligence disclosures), or credible international media reporting that Russia has conducted missile drills involving nuclear-capable systems (Iskander-M, RS-26, or strategic bomber flights) at locations within 150 km of Ukraine's internationally recognized border, between March 15 and April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed❓ U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NORussia's Nuclear Drill Threat — The Escalation Spiral That Cannot Find Its CeilingArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drill Threat — The Escalation Spiral That C
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 87% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from official Russian defense ministry statements, independent satellite imagery analysis (e.g., from commercial providers or Western intelligence disclosures), or credible international media reporting that Russia has conducted missile drills involving nuclear-capable systems (Iskander-M, RS-26, or strategic bomber flights) at locations within 150 km of Ukraine's internationally recognized border, between March 15 and April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed
❓ U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Russia's Nuclear Drill Threat — The Escalation Spiral That Cannot Find Its Ceiling
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 13.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.76) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukrainedynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran-Israel Nuclear Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That CoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Credible reports from at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, or CNN) confirming that Israeli military forces conducted a kinetic strike (airstrikes, missile strikes, or special operations) targeting one or more Iranian nuclear facilities. Cyber attacks alone do not qualify. Covert sabotage operations that are not publicly confirmed as Israeli military strikes do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Israel Nuclear Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Middle EastArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final32%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran-Israel Nuclear Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Co
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Credible reports from at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, or CNN) confirming that Israeli military forces conducted a kinetic strike (airstrikes, missile strikes, or special operations) targeting one or more Iranian nuclear facilities. Cyber attacks alone do not qualify. Covert sabotage operations that are not publicly confirmed as Israeli military strikes do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Israel Nuclear Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Middle East
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final32%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
32%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 68.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.10
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Escort Gambit — Imperial Overreach Meets Escalation TOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed by official U.S. Department of Defense announcement, CENTCOM statement, or credible major news reporting (Reuters, AP, NYT, WSJ) that at least one commercial oil tanker has transited the Strait of Hormuz under direct U.S. Navy escort during the period March 15 - June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Escort Gambit — Imperial Overreach Meets Escalation TrapArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final3%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Escort Gambit — Imperial Overreach Meets Escalation T
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed by official U.S. Department of Defense announcement, CENTCOM statement, or credible major news reporting (Reuters, AP, NYT, WSJ) that at least one commercial oil tanker has transited the Strait of Hormuz under direct U.S. Navy escort during the period March 15 - June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Escort Gambit — Imperial Overreach Meets Escalation Trap
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final3%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
3%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 97.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
dynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Arms Deal — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw tOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution requires confirmed reports from at least two credible sources (official PLA announcements, US Department of Defense statements, or major international wire services such as Reuters/AP) documenting Chinese military exercises involving at least two of the following three elements: (1) naval vessel deployments in designated exercise zones near the Taiwan Strait, (2) air force sorties exceeding 50 aircraft in a single day across Taiwan's ADIZ, (3) ballistic or cruise missile test launches into designated maritime exclusion zones. The exercises must occur within 30 days of the official US notification to Congress of the arms sale. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Arms Deal — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Pacific OrderArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Dec 2025▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Arms Deal — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw t
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution requires confirmed reports from at least two credible sources (official PLA announcements, US Department of Defense statements, or major international wire services such as Reuters/AP) documenting Chinese military exercises involving at least two of the following three elements: (1) naval vessel deployments in designated exercise zones near the Taiwan Strait, (2) air force sorties exceeding 50 aircraft in a single day across Taiwan's ADIZ, (3) ballistic or cruise missile test launches into designated maritime exclusion zones. The exercises must occur within 30 days of the official US notification to Congress of the arms sale. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Arms Deal — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Pacific Order
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Dec 2025Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Gambit fOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Based on independent market research reports (Statista, Precedence Research, or equivalent) published by Q1 2027 covering the 2026 calendar year: OpenAI's ChatGPT/GPT-6 creative features must account for more than 50% of global consumer creative AI tool revenue (including subscriptions and API revenue for creative use cases across text generation, image generation, and audio generation) to resolve YES. If no definitive market share report is available, resolution defaults to NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Gambit for Creative AIArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Gambit f
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Based on independent market research reports (Statista, Precedence Research, or equivalent) published by Q1 2027 covering the 2026 calendar year: OpenAI's ChatGPT/GPT-6 creative features must account for more than 50% of global consumer creative AI tool revenue (including subscriptions and API revenue for creative use cases across text generation, image generation, and audio generation) to resolve YES. If no definitive market share report is available, resolution defaults to NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Gambit for Creative AI
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Leap Toward CognitOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: At least 30 universities ranked in the QS World University Rankings top 100 must have formal, institution-approved policies integrating GPT-6 specifically (not just generic AI tools) into graded coursework or required curriculum components across at least one full academic department, as documented in official university communications, policy documents, or verified media reports by December 31, 2027. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Leap Toward Cognitive InfrastructureArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final78%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Leap Toward Cognit
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least 30 universities ranked in the QS World University Rankings top 100 must have formal, institution-approved policies integrating GPT-6 specifically (not just generic AI tools) into graded coursework or required curriculum components across at least one full academic department, as documented in official university communications, policy documents, or verified media reports by December 31, 2027. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Leap Toward Cognitive Infrastructure
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final78%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
78%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Illusion Reshaping AOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: An independent evaluation body (NIST, METR, AISI, or a peer-reviewed academic study) publishes results of AlphaThink tested on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark under controlled conditions, and the system scores above 85%. The evaluation must be conducted by an organization independent of Google DeepMind, using the standard ARC-AGI-2 test set without modification. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Illusion Reshaping AI PolicyArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final58%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Illusion Reshaping A
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: An independent evaluation body (NIST, METR, AISI, or a peer-reviewed academic study) publishes results of AlphaThink tested on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark under controlled conditions, and the system scores above 85%. The evaluation must be conducted by an organization independent of Google DeepMind, using the standard ARC-AGI-2 test set without modification. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Illusion Reshaping AI Policy
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final58%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
58%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 58.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.18
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Iran launch a direct military or cyber counterattack against Israeli state infrastructure by 2026-03-29?Key Event: Iran-Israel Cyber Escalation — The Shadow War Goes CriticalOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A publicly reported and independently verified (by at least two credible international news sources or official government acknowledgment) cyberattack or military strike attributed to Iran or Iranian state-linked groups directly targeting Israeli government, military, or critical civilian infrastructure (energy, water, telecommunications, financial systems) occurring between 2026-03-15 and 2026-03-29. Proxy operations by Hezbollah, Houthis, or Iraqi militias do NOT count unless Iran officially claims direction. The attack must target infrastructure within Israel's recognized borders or its direct state-operated cyber systems. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Israel Cyber Escalation — The Shadow War Goes CriticalArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Iran launch a direct military or cyber counterattack against Israeli state infrastructure by 2026-03-29?
Key Event: Iran-Israel Cyber Escalation — The Shadow War Goes Critical
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A publicly reported and independently verified (by at least two credible international news sources or official government acknowledgment) cyberattack or military strike attributed to Iran or Iranian state-linked groups directly targeting Israeli government, military, or critical civilian infrastructure (energy, water, telecommunications, financial systems) occurring between 2026-03-15 and 2026-03-29. Proxy operations by Hezbollah, Houthis, or Iraqi militias do NOT count unless Iran officially claims direction. The attack must target infrastructure within Israel's recognized borders or its direct state-operated cyber systems. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Israel Cyber Escalation — The Shadow War Goes Critical
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: f4bde92a3915 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Strait Blockade — Imperial Overreach Meets Energy ConOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: WTI front-month futures closing price on June 15, 2026 (or nearest trading day) as reported by CME/NYMEX. If closing price is $85.00 or above, outcome is YES. If below $85.00, outcome is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Strait Blockade — Imperial Overreach Meets Energy Contagion CascadeArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final46%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Strait Blockade — Imperial Overreach Meets Energy Con
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: WTI front-month futures closing price on June 15, 2026 (or nearest trading day) as reported by CME/NYMEX. If closing price is $85.00 or above, outcome is YES. If below $85.00, outcome is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Strait Blockade — Imperial Overreach Meets Energy Contagion Cascade
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final46%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
46%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 46.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83) / market raw 0.29
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — Escalation Spiral Neither SOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reports from official US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP) confirming that a US or Chinese naval vessel discharged a weapon (including warning shots, but excluding flares or non-kinetic measures like water cannon from coast guard vessels) directed at another nation's military vessel in the South China Sea between March 15 and June 15, 2026. If YES, the prediction is wrong. If no such report exists by June 15, 2026, the prediction is correct. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Near-Collision — Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — Escalation Spiral Neither S
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reports from official US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP) confirming that a US or Chinese naval vessel discharged a weapon (including warning shots, but excluding flares or non-kinetic measures like water cannon from coast guard vessels) directed at another nation's military vessel in the South China Sea between March 15 and June 15, 2026. If YES, the prediction is wrong. If no such report exists by June 15, 2026, the prediction is correct. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Near-Collision — Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drill Threat — NATO's Red Lines Re-DefinedOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed by at least two independent sources (Western intelligence statements, satellite imagery analysis from open-source intelligence organizations, or official Russian defense ministry confirmation) that Russia conducted missile drills involving nuclear-capable delivery systems (ICBMs, tactical missile launchers, or nuclear-capable bomber operations) within 200 km of Ukraine's internationally recognized eastern border between March 15 and April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drill Threat — NATO's Red Lines Re-DefinedArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drill Threat — NATO's Red Lines Re-Defined
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed by at least two independent sources (Western intelligence statements, satellite imagery analysis from open-source intelligence organizations, or official Russian defense ministry confirmation) that Russia conducted missile drills involving nuclear-capable delivery systems (ICBMs, tactical missile launchers, or nuclear-capable bomber operations) within 200 km of Ukraine's internationally recognized eastern border between March 15 and April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drill Threat — NATO's Red Lines Re-Defined
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 and Reasoning — AI's Winner-Takes-All MomentOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: Verified by industry surveys (Gartner, McKinsey, or Forrester) or OpenAI disclosure showing that at least 250 of the Fortune 500 have active GPT-6 enterprise contracts used in professional (not just marketing or customer service) workflows by June 30, 2027. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6 and Reasoning — AI's Winner-Takes-All MomentArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 and Reasoning — AI's Winner-Takes-All Moment
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: Verified by industry surveys (Gartner, McKinsey, or Forrester) or OpenAI disclosure showing that at least 250 of the Fortune 500 have active GPT-6 enterprise contracts used in professional (not just marketing or customer service) workflows by June 30, 2027. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6 and Reasoning — AI's Winner-Takes-All Moment
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Meta's Emotional AI — Platform Power Meets BacklashOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution requires that at least one G7 national government (US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan) or the European Commission formally introduces proposed legislation, issues a binding regulatory guidance, or initiates a formal enforcement action specifically addressing consumer-facing emotional AI systems (not just general AI regulation). Announcements of intent, committee reports, or non-binding recommendations do not qualify. The action must specifically reference emotion recognition, emotional AI, or affective computing in consumer applications. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisMeta's Emotional AI — Platform Power Meets BacklashArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final88%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Meta's Emotional AI — Platform Power Meets Backlash
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution requires that at least one G7 national government (US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan) or the European Commission formally introduces proposed legislation, issues a binding regulatory guidance, or initiates a formal enforcement action specifically addressing consumer-facing emotional AI systems (not just general AI regulation). Announcements of intent, committee reports, or non-binding recommendations do not qualify. The action must specifically reference emotion recognition, emotional AI, or affective computing in consumer applications. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Meta's Emotional AI — Platform Power Meets Backlash
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final88%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
88%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: IEA Oil Reserve Release — Energy Shock Doctrine Reshapes CryOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 31% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) spot price on major exchanges (Coinbase, Binance) is above $75,000 at any point during April 15, 2026 UTC. Price must be sustained for at least one hourly candle close, not just a momentary wick. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIEA Oil Reserve Release — Energy Shock Doctrine Reshapes CryptoArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: IEA Oil Reserve Release — Energy Shock Doctrine Reshapes Cry
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 31% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) spot price on major exchanges (Coinbase, Binance) is above $75,000 at any point during April 15, 2026 UTC. Price must be sustained for at least one hourly candle close, not just a momentary wick. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
IEA Oil Reserve Release — Energy Shock Doctrine Reshapes Crypto
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 69.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.10) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Iran War Deadlock — Cracks in Trump's Power ProjectionOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: The criterion is whether the US President or Secretary of Defense officially declares the "cessation," "termination," or "suspension" of offensive military operations (airstrikes, cruise missile attacks, etc.) against Iran. This does not include the continuation of defensive operations (such as air defense). The judgment criterion is a clear announcement in an official statement, executive order, or press conference. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Iran War Deadlock — Cracks in Trump's Power ProjectionArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Iran War Deadlock — Cracks in Trump's Power Projection
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: The criterion is whether the US President or Secretary of Defense officially declares the "cessation," "termination," or "suspension" of offensive military operations (airstrikes, cruise missile attacks, etc.) against Iran. This does not include the continuation of defensive operations (such as air defense). The judgment criterion is a clear announcement in an official statement, executive order, or press conference. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Iran War Deadlock — Cracks in Trump's Power Projection
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drills — Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A naval blockade is defined as China officially declaring a maritime exclusion zone around any part of Taiwan's territorial waters OR physically intercepting/turning back commercial shipping bound for Taiwanese ports. Partial or temporary exclusion zones for military exercises that last less than 72 hours and do not intercept commercial vessels do not qualify. The question is resolved YES if credible international media (Reuters, AP, BBC, or equivalent) report a Chinese-declared blockade or confirmed interception of commercial shipping destined for Taiwan by April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drills — Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drills — Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Ex
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A naval blockade is defined as China officially declaring a maritime exclusion zone around any part of Taiwan's territorial waters OR physically intercepting/turning back commercial shipping bound for Taiwanese ports. Partial or temporary exclusion zones for military exercises that last less than 72 hours and do not intercept commercial vessels do not qualify. The question is resolved YES if credible international media (Reuters, AP, BBC, or equivalent) report a Chinese-declared blockade or confirmed interception of commercial shipping destined for Taiwan by April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drills — Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran War Exit Pressure — Imperial Overreach Meets DissentOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: A publicly acknowledged ceasefire, mutual de-escalation agreement, or sustained cessation of direct US-Iran military strikes lasting at least 14 consecutive days, confirmed by official statements from both US and Iranian governments or by UN verification, occurring on or before September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran War Exit Pressure — Imperial Overreach Meets DissentArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran War Exit Pressure — Imperial Overreach Meets Dissent
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: A publicly acknowledged ceasefire, mutual de-escalation agreement, or sustained cessation of direct US-Iran military strikes lasting at least 14 consecutive days, confirmed by official statements from both US and Iranian governments or by UN verification, occurring on or before September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran War Exit Pressure — Imperial Overreach Meets Dissent
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/xi-jinping
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:xi-jinping
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will bitcoin be trading above $90,000 on March 28, 2026, one week after the Fed's March FOMC decision?Key Event: Seven Central Banks vs. Inflation — Bitcoin's Stress TestOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) spot price on major exchanges (Coinbase, Binance) is above $90,000 at the daily close (UTC midnight) on March 28, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSeven Central Banks vs. Inflation — Bitcoin's Stress TestArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will bitcoin be trading above $90,000 on March 28, 2026, one week after the Fed's March FOMC decision?
Key Event: Seven Central Banks vs. Inflation — Bitcoin's Stress Test
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) spot price on major exchanges (Coinbase, Binance) is above $90,000 at the daily close (UTC midnight) on March 28, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Seven Central Banks vs. Inflation — Bitcoin's Stress Test
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin/fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoinentity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 77c282fda2ee (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Arms Deal — Indo-Pacific Order ReshapedOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reports from at least two credible sources (major wire services, PLA official announcements, or Taiwan Ministry of National Defense statements) confirming that China's PLA conducted military exercises — including but not limited to naval maneuvers, live-fire drills, or air incursion exercises — within 200 nautical miles of Taiwan's coast between the date of the arms deal announcement and April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Arms Deal — Indo-Pacific Order ReshapedArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Arms Deal — Indo-Pacific Order Reshaped
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reports from at least two credible sources (major wire services, PLA official announcements, or Taiwan Ministry of National Defense statements) confirming that China's PLA conducted military exercises — including but not limited to naval maneuvers, live-fire drills, or air incursion exercises — within 200 nautical miles of Taiwan's coast between the date of the arms deal announcement and April 15, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Arms Deal — Indo-Pacific Order Reshaped
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Crypto Developer Exodus — AI Reshapes Tech TalentOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Electric Capital's next annual developer report (covering calendar year 2026) reports fewer than 5,000 monthly active open-source developers contributing to crypto repositories. The metric must use Electric Capital's established methodology for counting unique developers making commits to crypto-tagged repositories. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 10%10% of prediction market capital bets on NOCrypto Developer Exodus — AI Reshapes Tech TalentArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final10%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Crypto Developer Exodus — AI Reshapes Tech Talent
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Electric Capital's next annual developer report (covering calendar year 2026) reports fewer than 5,000 monthly active open-source developers contributing to crypto repositories. The metric must use Electric Capital's established methodology for counting unique developers making commits to crypto-tagged repositories. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 10%
10% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Crypto Developer Exodus — AI Reshapes Tech Talent
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final10%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
10%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Creative AI BidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Market share is measured by revenue attributed to GPT-6-powered creative AI tools (including API usage for creative applications, ChatGPT creative features, and enterprise creative licensing) as a percentage of total creative AI tools market revenue, as reported by credible market research firms (IDC, Gartner, or equivalent). A 40% threshold would indicate clear market dominance. → ❌ Missed❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Creative AI BidArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Creative AI Bid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Market share is measured by revenue attributed to GPT-6-powered creative AI tools (including API usage for creative applications, ChatGPT creative features, and enterprise creative licensing) as a percentage of total creative AI tools market revenue, as reported by credible market research firms (IDC, Gartner, or equivalent). A 40% threshold would indicate clear market dominance. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Creative AI Bid
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO implement a no-fly zone over any part of Ukraine by 2026-03-31?Key Event: NATO's No-Fly Zone Debate — The Escalation Spiral That CouldOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal NATO decision (communiqué, SACEUR order, or equivalent official announcement) authorizing the enforcement of a no-fly zone — defined as NATO aircraft patrolling Ukrainian airspace with authorization to engage hostile aircraft — over any portion of Ukrainian territory, implemented with operational assets deployed before March 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNATO's No-Fly Zone Debate — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redefine the AllianceArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO implement a no-fly zone over any part of Ukraine by 2026-03-31?
Key Event: NATO's No-Fly Zone Debate — The Escalation Spiral That Could
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal NATO decision (communiqué, SACEUR order, or equivalent official announcement) authorizing the enforcement of a no-fly zone — defined as NATO aircraft patrolling Ukrainian airspace with authorization to engage hostile aircraft — over any portion of Ukrainian territory, implemented with operational assets deployed before March 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
NATO's No-Fly Zone Debate — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redefine the Alliance
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 28f9e860b604 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran-Israel Cyberwar — Digital Escalation Spiral Threatens KOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed kinetic military strike directly between Iranian and Israeli military forces (not proxy operations) must be reported by at least two major international wire services (Reuters, AP, AFP) by June 30, 2026. Proxy attacks by Hezbollah, Houthi, or Iraqi militias do not count unless Iran claims direct responsibility or U.S./Israeli intelligence publicly confirms direct Iranian military involvement in the strike execution. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Israel Cyberwar — Digital Escalation Spiral Threatens Kinetic ThresholdArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final32%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran-Israel Cyberwar — Digital Escalation Spiral Threatens K
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed kinetic military strike directly between Iranian and Israeli military forces (not proxy operations) must be reported by at least two major international wire services (Reuters, AP, AFP) by June 30, 2026. Proxy attacks by Hezbollah, Houthi, or Iraqi militias do not count unless Iran claims direct responsibility or U.S./Israeli intelligence publicly confirms direct Iranian military involvement in the strike execution. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Israel Cyberwar — Digital Escalation Spiral Threatens Kinetic Threshold
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final32%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
32%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 68.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.10
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — The Innovation-Safety TradeoffOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: At least one major AI company (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta, or a Chinese frontier lab) publicly acknowledges or credible reporting confirms that a frontier model release was delayed by 3 or more months specifically due to compliance with the 2026 Global AI Regulation Summit guidelines. The delay must be attributed to regulatory compliance processes (safety evaluations, auditing, certification) rather than technical development challenges. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Regulation Summit — The Innovation-Safety Tradeoff CrystallizesArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final6%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — The Innovation-Safety Tradeoff
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least one major AI company (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, xAI, Meta, or a Chinese frontier lab) publicly acknowledges or credible reporting confirms that a frontier model release was delayed by 3 or more months specifically due to compliance with the 2026 Global AI Regulation Summit guidelines. The delay must be attributed to regulatory compliance processes (safety evaluations, auditing, certification) rather than technical development challenges. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Regulation Summit — The Innovation-Safety Tradeoff Crystallizes
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final6%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
6%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Iran launch a publicly attributed direct cyberattack or kinetic military strike against Israeli territory or assets by 2026-03-29?Key Event: Iran-Israel Cyber Escalation — The Shadow War Goes CriticalOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A publicly attributed Iranian cyberattack causing confirmed damage to Israeli infrastructure, or a kinetic military strike (missiles, drones, or proxy-launched munitions confirmed by Iran) impacting Israeli sovereign territory or confirmed Israeli military/diplomatic assets abroad, reported by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) by March 29, 2026. Proxy attacks not officially claimed by Iran do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Israel Cyber Escalation — The Shadow War Goes CriticalArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Iran launch a publicly attributed direct cyberattack or kinetic military strike against Israeli territory or assets by 2026-03-29?
Key Event: Iran-Israel Cyber Escalation — The Shadow War Goes Critical
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A publicly attributed Iranian cyberattack causing confirmed damage to Israeli infrastructure, or a kinetic military strike (missiles, drones, or proxy-launched munitions confirmed by Iran) impacting Israeli sovereign territory or confirmed Israeli military/diplomatic assets abroad, reported by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) by March 29, 2026. Proxy attacks not officially claimed by Iran do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Israel Cyber Escalation — The Shadow War Goes Critical
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 35dfdd7f3302 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will bitcoin trade above $90,000 at any point during the central bank super week of March 16-21, 2026?Key Event: Central Bank Super Week — Seven Rate Decisions Collide WithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) spot price on any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) exceeds $90,000.00 at any point between market open Monday March 16 and market close Friday March 21, 2026 UTC. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisCentral Bank Super Week — Seven Rate Decisions Collide With Inflation ShockArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will bitcoin trade above $90,000 at any point during the central bank super week of March 16-21, 2026?
Key Event: Central Bank Super Week — Seven Rate Decisions Collide With
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) spot price on any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) exceeds $90,000.00 at any point between market open Monday March 16 and market close Friday March 21, 2026 UTC. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Central Bank Super Week — Seven Rate Decisions Collide With Inflation Shock
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: b7f0ebee19d9 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Crypto's Developer Exodus — AI Gravity Reshapes the BuilderOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: The Electric Capital Developer Report (or equivalent widely-cited crypto developer tracker such as Artemis or Developer Report) for year-end 2026 shows monthly active open-source crypto developers below 10,000. If no major report is published by the deadline, the question resolves based on the most recent available data from any of these trackers. → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOCrypto's Developer Exodus — AI Gravity Reshapes the Builder EconomyArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Crypto's Developer Exodus — AI Gravity Reshapes the Builder
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: The Electric Capital Developer Report (or equivalent widely-cited crypto developer tracker such as Artemis or Developer Report) for year-end 2026 shows monthly active open-source crypto developers below 10,000. If no major report is published by the deadline, the question resolves based on the most recent available data from any of these trackers. → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Crypto's Developer Exodus — AI Gravity Reshapes the Builder Economy
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Iran War of Attrition — Why Time Favors Tehran's AsymmetrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal, publicly announced ceasefire agreement, framework deal, or mutual commitment to halt military operations signed or jointly announced by authorized US and Iranian representatives. Informal de-escalation without a public agreement does not count. Unilateral pauses do not count. The agreement must be acknowledged by both governments. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Iran War of Attrition — Why Time Favors Tehran's Asymmetric StrategyArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Iran War of Attrition — Why Time Favors Tehran's Asymmetr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal, publicly announced ceasefire agreement, framework deal, or mutual commitment to halt military operations signed or jointly announced by authorized US and Iranian representatives. Informal de-escalation without a public agreement does not count. Unilateral pauses do not count. The agreement must be acknowledged by both governments. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Iran War of Attrition — Why Time Favors Tehran's Asymmetric Strategy
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Asia's Iran War Energy Crisis — Imperial Overreach Meets ImpOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Brent crude front-month futures contract closes above $100/barrel on every trading day from March 15, 2026 through June 30, 2026, as reported by ICE Futures Europe. A single daily close below $100 resolves this as NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAsia's Iran War Energy Crisis — Imperial Overreach Meets Import DependencyArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Asia's Iran War Energy Crisis — Imperial Overreach Meets Imp
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Brent crude front-month futures contract closes above $100/barrel on every trading day from March 15, 2026 through June 30, 2026, as reported by ICE Futures Europe. A single daily close below $100 resolves this as NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Asia's Iran War Energy Crisis — Imperial Overreach Meets Import Dependency
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral NeitheOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A direct armed confrontation is defined as the confirmed, intentional firing of weapons (missiles, guns, electronic attack causing physical destruction) by US or Chinese military forces against the other's military assets or personnel, as reported by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP). Accidental collisions, electronic jamming without physical damage, or intercepts without weapons use do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neithe
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A direct armed confrontation is defined as the confirmed, intentional firing of weapons (missiles, guns, electronic attack causing physical destruction) by US or Chinese military forces against the other's military assets or personnel, as reported by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP). Accidental collisions, electronic jamming without physical damage, or intercepts without weapons use do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Threshold — AI Crosses the EnterprisOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Verifiable through public enterprise deployment announcements, OpenAI customer disclosures, analyst reports, or earnings call mentions. 'Production deployment' means GPT-6 is used in at least one customer-facing or business-critical workflow (not just internal experimentation or pilot programs). Count of 100+ distinct Fortune 500 companies must be confirmable through public sources. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 and the Reasoning Threshold — AI Crosses the Enterprise RubiconArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final13%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Threshold — AI Crosses the Enterpris
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verifiable through public enterprise deployment announcements, OpenAI customer disclosures, analyst reports, or earnings call mentions. 'Production deployment' means GPT-6 is used in at least one customer-facing or business-critical workflow (not just internal experimentation or pilot programs). Count of 100+ distinct Fortune 500 companies must be confirmable through public sources. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 and the Reasoning Threshold — AI Crosses the Enterprise Rubicon
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final13%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
13%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Strait Attacks — Oil's Chokepoint Triggers Global EscOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 69% confidence➡ Verdict: The average daily closing price of Brent crude oil futures (front-month contract) for all trading days in April 2026, as reported by the ICE exchange, exceeds $120.00 per barrel. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Strait Attacks — Oil's Chokepoint Triggers Global Escalation SpiralArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final46%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Strait Attacks — Oil's Chokepoint Triggers Global Esc
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 69% confidence
➡ Verdict: The average daily closing price of Brent crude oil futures (front-month contract) for all trading days in April 2026, as reported by the ICE exchange, exceeds $120.00 per barrel. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Strait Attacks — Oil's Chokepoint Triggers Global Escalation Spiral
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final46%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
46%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 31.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 46.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.48) / market raw 0.29
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
dynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Iran launch a direct military strike (missiles, drones, or both) against Israeli territory or Israeli military assets outside Syria by 2026-03-29?Key Event: Iran-Israel Shadow War in Syria — The Escalation Spiral NoboOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reports from at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirming Iranian-launched or Iranian-directed missile or drone strikes hitting Israeli sovereign territory or Israeli military installations outside of Syria. Proxy attacks by Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, or Houthis do NOT count unless explicitly attributed to direct IRGC operational command by U.S. or Israeli intelligence assessments made public. Cyber attacks do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Israel Shadow War in Syria — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can StopArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Iran launch a direct military strike (missiles, drones, or both) against Israeli territory or Israeli military assets outside Syria by 2026-03-29?
Key Event: Iran-Israel Shadow War in Syria — The Escalation Spiral Nobo
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reports from at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirming Iranian-launched or Iranian-directed missile or drone strikes hitting Israeli sovereign territory or Israeli military installations outside of Syria. Proxy attacks by Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, or Houthis do NOT count unless explicitly attributed to direct IRGC operational command by U.S. or Israeli intelligence assessments made public. Cyber attacks do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Israel Shadow War in Syria — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can Stop
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 9d056c2622d6 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the United Nations Security Council pass a binding resolution establishing a demilitarized zone around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant by 2026-03-29?Key Event: Zaporizhzhia Under Fire — Nuclear Brinkmanship Exposes GlobaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A binding UN Security Council resolution (not a presidential statement or General Assembly resolution) specifically mandating the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and its immediate perimeter must be adopted by March 29, 2026. The resolution must pass with the required votes and without a veto from any permanent member. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisZaporizhzhia Under Fire — Nuclear Brinkmanship Exposes Global Coordination FailureArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the United Nations Security Council pass a binding resolution establishing a demilitarized zone around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant by 2026-03-29?
Key Event: Zaporizhzhia Under Fire — Nuclear Brinkmanship Exposes Globa
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A binding UN Security Council resolution (not a presidential statement or General Assembly resolution) specifically mandating the demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and its immediate perimeter must be adopted by March 29, 2026. The resolution must pass with the required votes and without a veto from any permanent member. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Zaporizhzhia Under Fire — Nuclear Brinkmanship Exposes Global Coordination Failure
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 2fa76d174385 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Reckoning That Reshapes COur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Tether Limited or an affiliated entity publishes a complete, independent audit report (not an attestation) conducted by one of the Big Four accounting firms (Deloitte, PwC, EY, KPMG) covering 100% of USDT reserves, with the report publicly available by August 31, 2026. A partial audit, an attestation, or an audit by a non-Big Four firm does not count as YES. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Dusan Vlahovic be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOUS Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Reckoning That Reshapes Crypto's CoreArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Reckoning That Reshapes C
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Tether Limited or an affiliated entity publishes a complete, independent audit report (not an attestation) conducted by one of the Big Four accounting firms (Deloitte, PwC, EY, KPMG) covering 100% of USDT reserves, with the report publicly available by August 31, 2026. A partial audit, an attestation, or an audit by a non-Big Four firm does not count as YES. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Dusan Vlahovic be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
US Stablecoin Law — The Regulatory Reckoning That Reshapes Crypto's Core
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereum
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Regulation Framework — The Innovation-Safety TradeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Count of signatory nations that have enacted domestic legislation or binding executive orders implementing the core requirements of the Global AI Regulation Framework (mandatory safety evaluations for models above the compute threshold, 72-hour incident reporting, and IASA inspection cooperation) by December 31, 2027. If 40 or more nations have done so, the answer is YES. If fewer than 40, the answer is NO. Assessment based on IASA compliance tracking reports or equivalent UN documentation. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Regulation Framework — The Innovation-Safety Tradeoff CrystallizesArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final6%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Regulation Framework — The Innovation-Safety Trade
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Count of signatory nations that have enacted domestic legislation or binding executive orders implementing the core requirements of the Global AI Regulation Framework (mandatory safety evaluations for models above the compute threshold, 72-hour incident reporting, and IASA inspection cooperation) by December 31, 2027. If 40 or more nations have done so, the answer is YES. If fewer than 40, the answer is NO. Assessment based on IASA compliance tracking reports or equivalent UN documentation. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Regulation Framework — The Innovation-Safety Tradeoff Crystallizes
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final6%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
6%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Iran Conflict & Withdrawal Debate—Shifting Mideast OrderOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Whether the US Department of Defense or the White House officially announces a reduction in troop strength, partial withdrawal, or ceasefire agreement for military operations against Iran. Confirmation of a substantial reduction in the scale of operations, not just a "phase transition of the mission." → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Iran Conflict & Withdrawal Debate—Shifting Mideast Order From Power OverextensionArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Iran Conflict & Withdrawal Debate—Shifting Mideast Order
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Whether the US Department of Defense or the White House officially announces a reduction in troop strength, partial withdrawal, or ceasefire agreement for military operations against Iran. Confirmation of a substantial reduction in the scale of operations, not just a "phase transition of the mission." → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Iran Conflict & Withdrawal Debate—Shifting Mideast Order From Power Overextension
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will bitcoin be trading above $90,000 on March 28, 2026 (one week after the central bank decision cluster concludes)?Key Event: Seven Central Banks vs. Inflation — Bitcoin's Macro CrucibleOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's spot price on the Coinbase BTC/USD pair is above $90,000.00 at any point during March 28, 2026 (00:00-23:59 UTC). Verified via CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical data. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSeven Central Banks vs. Inflation — Bitcoin's Macro Crucible WeekArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will bitcoin be trading above $90,000 on March 28, 2026 (one week after the central bank decision cluster concludes)?
Key Event: Seven Central Banks vs. Inflation — Bitcoin's Macro Crucible
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's spot price on the Coinbase BTC/USD pair is above $90,000.00 at any point during March 28, 2026 (00:00-23:59 UTC). Verified via CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical data. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Seven Central Banks vs. Inflation — Bitcoin's Macro Crucible Week
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 9edbdc209944 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reporting from official US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) confirming an intentional or accidental exchange of weapons fire (including warning shots, missile launches, or gun engagements) between US and Chinese military assets (navy, air force, or coast guard under military command) in the South China Sea between March 16, 2026 and June 16, 2026. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reporting from official US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) confirming an intentional or accidental exchange of weapons fire (including warning shots, missile launches, or gun engagements) between US and Chinese military assets (navy, air force, or coast guard under military command) in the South China Sea between March 16, 2026 and June 16, 2026. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO announce additional troop deployments to Eastern Europe (beyond pre-existing commitments) by 2026-03-30 in response to Russia's nuclear-capable missile exercises?Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Tests NATOOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO, the US Department of Defense, or any individual NATO member state officially announces new troop deployments, force rotations, or enhanced forward presence measures specifically to Eastern European member states (Poland, Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria) citing Russian nuclear exercises as justification, by March 30, 2026. Pre-existing planned rotations or previously announced deployments do not count unless explicitly accelerated or augmented in response to the exercises. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Tests NATO's Red LinesArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO announce additional troop deployments to Eastern Europe (beyond pre-existing commitments) by 2026-03-30 in response to Russia's nuclear-capable missile exercises?
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Tests NATO
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO, the US Department of Defense, or any individual NATO member state officially announces new troop deployments, force rotations, or enhanced forward presence measures specifically to Eastern European member states (Poland, Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria) citing Russian nuclear exercises as justification, by March 30, 2026. Pre-existing planned rotations or previously announced deployments do not count unless explicitly accelerated or augmented in response to the exercises. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Tests NATO's Red Lines
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 67b5676ee64d (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 Launch — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AI DOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Adoption is defined as at least 250 of the Fortune 500 companies (as listed by Fortune magazine's 2026 ranking) having active, paid GPT-6 deployments in production workflows — not just pilot programs or evaluation accounts — by December 31, 2026, as verified by OpenAI disclosures, enterprise surveys (e.g., Gartner, Forrester), or credible third-party reporting. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6 Launch — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AI DominanceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 Launch — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AI D
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Adoption is defined as at least 250 of the Fortune 500 companies (as listed by Fortune magazine's 2026 ranking) having active, paid GPT-6 deployments in production workflows — not just pilot programs or evaluation accounts — by December 31, 2026, as verified by OpenAI disclosures, enterprise surveys (e.g., Gartner, Forrester), or credible third-party reporting. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6 Launch — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AI Dominance
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-India Russian Oil Waiver — Sanctions Bend When Supply RunOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: The waiver is considered 'in effect' if, as of September 1, 2026, the US has not formally revoked or allowed to expire the authorization for India to purchase Russian crude oil under the terms announced in March 2026 (or any successor/extended authorization serving the same purpose). Evidence: official US Treasury/State Department statements, OFAC guidance, or executive orders. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-India Russian Oil Waiver — Sanctions Bend When Supply Runs ShortArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final35%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-India Russian Oil Waiver — Sanctions Bend When Supply Run
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: The waiver is considered 'in effect' if, as of September 1, 2026, the US has not formally revoked or allowed to expire the authorization for India to purchase Russian crude oil under the terms announced in March 2026 (or any successor/extended authorization serving the same purpose). Evidence: official US Treasury/State Department statements, OFAC guidance, or executive orders. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-India Russian Oil Waiver — Sanctions Bend When Supply Runs Short
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final35%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
35%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/india
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:india
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: india has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Iran War Week Three — Escalation Outpaces Political ExitOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 73% confidence➡ Verdict: A ceasefire is confirmed if either: (1) an official ceasefire agreement is announced by both the US and Iranian governments, or (2) there is a sustained cessation of direct US-Iran military hostilities for at least 14 consecutive days with no new strikes by either side, as confirmed by major international media reporting (Reuters, AP, BBC). Proxy force activity alone does not count against the ceasefire if direct US-Iran operations have ceased. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Iran War Week Three — Escalation Outpaces Political ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final24%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Iran War Week Three — Escalation Outpaces Political Exit
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 73% confidence
➡ Verdict: A ceasefire is confirmed if either: (1) an official ceasefire agreement is announced by both the US and Iranian governments, or (2) there is a sustained cessation of direct US-Iran military hostilities for at least 14 consecutive days with no new strikes by either side, as confirmed by major international media reporting (Reuters, AP, BBC). Proxy force activity alone does not count against the ceasefire if direct US-Iran operations have ceased. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Iran War Week Three — Escalation Outpaces Political Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final24%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
24%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's Geopolitical Stress Test — Oil Shocks Meet DigitalOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) spot price on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap at 00:00 UTC on April 18, 2026 is above $75,000.00. A price of exactly $75,000.00 counts as NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's Geopolitical Stress Test — Oil Shocks Meet Digital Safe HavenArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final6%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's Geopolitical Stress Test — Oil Shocks Meet Digital
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) spot price on CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap at 00:00 UTC on April 18, 2026 is above $75,000.00. A price of exactly $75,000.00 counts as NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's Geopolitical Stress Test — Oil Shocks Meet Digital Safe Haven
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final6%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
6%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Crypto's Developer Exodus — AI Reshapes Tech Talent MarketsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: Electric Capital's Developer Report (or equivalent independent methodology tracking monthly active developers contributing to public crypto/blockchain repositories) shows fewer than 8,000 monthly active developers for at least one month in H2 2026. If Electric Capital does not publish a report by the deadline, equivalent data from Artemis, GitHub's annual Octoverse report, or Developer DAO can be used. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 10%10% of prediction market capital bets on NOCrypto's Developer Exodus — AI Reshapes Tech Talent MarketsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final10%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Crypto's Developer Exodus — AI Reshapes Tech Talent Markets
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: Electric Capital's Developer Report (or equivalent independent methodology tracking monthly active developers contributing to public crypto/blockchain repositories) shows fewer than 8,000 monthly active developers for at least one month in H2 2026. If Electric Capital does not publish a report by the deadline, equivalent data from Artemis, GitHub's annual Octoverse report, or Developer DAO can be used. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 10%
10% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Crypto's Developer Exodus — AI Reshapes Tech Talent Markets
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final10%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
10%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereum
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Crypto's F1 Gamble — War Exposes Fragility of Gulf SportswasOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Official FIA or FOM announcement confirming that at least one of the four Middle East Grands Prix scheduled for 2026 has been permanently cancelled (removed from the calendar with no replacement date in 2026). A postponement to a later date within 2026, even if it displaces another race, does not count as cancellation. The race must be formally struck from the 2026 championship calendar. → ❌ Missed❓ Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOCrypto's F1 Gamble — War Exposes Fragility of Gulf SportswashingArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Crypto's F1 Gamble — War Exposes Fragility of Gulf Sportswas
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Official FIA or FOM announcement confirming that at least one of the four Middle East Grands Prix scheduled for 2026 has been permanently cancelled (removed from the calendar with no replacement date in 2026). A postponement to a later date within 2026, even if it displaces another race, does not count as cancellation. The race must be formally struck from the 2026 championship calendar. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Crypto's F1 Gamble — War Exposes Fragility of Gulf Sportswashing
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Strait Attacks — Escalation Reprices Global EnergyOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: The ICE Brent Crude front-month futures contract closes above $120.00 per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-03-11 and 2026-06-11, as reported by ICE or Bloomberg. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Strait Attacks — Escalation Reprices Global EnergyArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final46%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Strait Attacks — Escalation Reprices Global Energy
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: The ICE Brent Crude front-month futures contract closes above $120.00 per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-03-11 and 2026-06-11, as reported by ICE or Bloomberg. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Strait Attacks — Escalation Reprices Global Energy
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final46%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
46%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 46.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38) / market raw 0.29
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
dynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AlphaThink & Quantum Computing — AI's Leap Into the Post-ClaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A peer-reviewed publication or verifiable commercial deployment must demonstrate that a quantum computer using AlphaThink-optimized algorithms solved a problem of recognized commercial value (e.g., molecular simulation for drug discovery, portfolio optimization, logistics) with a measurable speed or cost advantage over the best available classical approach. Press releases or benchmark results on artificial problems do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAlphaThink & Quantum Computing — AI's Leap Into the Post-Classical EraArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final26%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AlphaThink & Quantum Computing — AI's Leap Into the Post-Cla
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A peer-reviewed publication or verifiable commercial deployment must demonstrate that a quantum computer using AlphaThink-optimized algorithms solved a problem of recognized commercial value (e.g., molecular simulation for drug discovery, portfolio optimization, logistics) with a measurable speed or cost advantage over the best available classical approach. Press releases or benchmark results on artificial problems do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AlphaThink & Quantum Computing — AI's Leap Into the Post-Classical Era
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final26%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
26%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=putin
Referenced knowledge
entity:putin
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites COur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinMarketCap (volume-weighted average) is above $120,000 USD. If yes, the answer is YES. If the price is at or below $120,000, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites Crypto CycleArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites C
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026 at 00:00 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinMarketCap (volume-weighted average) is above $120,000 USD. If yes, the answer is YES. If the price is at or below $120,000, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites Crypto Cycle
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump's Iran Nuclear Gambit — Oil Profits Sacrificed for LevOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 94% confidence➡ Verdict: The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designates at least one new Chinese bank, refinery, or trading company under Iran-related secondary sanctions between March 13, 2026 and June 30, 2026. The designation must be publicly announced and specifically cite Iranian oil trade as the basis. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump's Iran Nuclear Gambit — Oil Profits Sacrificed for LeverageArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final5%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump's Iran Nuclear Gambit — Oil Profits Sacrificed for Lev
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 94% confidence
➡ Verdict: The US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designates at least one new Chinese bank, refinery, or trading company under Iran-related secondary sanctions between March 13, 2026 and June 30, 2026. The designation must be publicly announced and specifically cite Iranian oil trade as the basis. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump's Iran Nuclear Gambit — Oil Profits Sacrificed for Leverage
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final5%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
5%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A verified report from the US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or major international news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC) confirming that US and Chinese military forces intentionally discharged weapons at each other in the South China Sea between March 16 and June 16, 2026. Accidental discharge without casualties or coast guard water cannon incidents do not qualify. The engagement must involve regular military forces (Navy, Air Force) using lethal weapons systems. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A verified report from the US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or major international news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC) confirming that US and Chinese military forces intentionally discharged weapons at each other in the South China Sea between March 16 and June 16, 2026. Accidental discharge without casualties or coast guard water cannon incidents do not qualify. The engagement must involve regular military forces (Navy, Air Force) using lethal weapons systems. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO announce additional troop deployments to Eastern Europe (beyond existing commitments) by 2026-03-30 in direct response to Russia's nuclear drill announcement?Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation SpiralOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO or any NATO member state officially announces new troop deployments, rotational force increases, or forward-positioning of additional military assets to Eastern European member states (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, or Bulgaria) explicitly referencing Russia's nuclear exercises as justification, by March 30, 2026. Reaffirmation of existing deployments does not count; the announcement must specify new or additional forces. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral TightensArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO announce additional troop deployments to Eastern Europe (beyond existing commitments) by 2026-03-30 in direct response to Russia's nuclear drill announcement?
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO or any NATO member state officially announces new troop deployments, rotational force increases, or forward-positioning of additional military assets to Eastern European member states (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, or Bulgaria) explicitly referencing Russia's nuclear exercises as justification, by March 30, 2026. Reaffirmation of existing deployments does not count; the announcement must specify new or additional forces. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral Tightens
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 671651128530 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 Launch — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AI DOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 9% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified by credible industry survey (e.g., Gartner, McKinsey, Forrester, or equivalent) showing that more than 250 of the Fortune 500 companies have GPT-6 (specifically, not other AI models) in production deployment — meaning active, revenue-impacting or operations-impacting use beyond pilot or experimental status — by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6 Launch — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AI DominanceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 Launch — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AI D
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 9% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified by credible industry survey (e.g., Gartner, McKinsey, Forrester, or equivalent) showing that more than 250 of the Fortune 500 companies have GPT-6 (specifically, not other AI models) in production deployment — meaning active, revenue-impacting or operations-impacting use beyond pilot or experimental status — by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6 Launch — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AI Dominance
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 91.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran War Ripples Through Asia — Energy Shock Exposes AlliancOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 87% confidence➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil front-month futures closing price on ICE remains at or above $100.00/barrel on every trading day from March 16, 2026 through June 30, 2026. A single daily close below $100/barrel falsifies the prediction. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran War Ripples Through Asia — Energy Shock Exposes Alliance FragilityArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran War Ripples Through Asia — Energy Shock Exposes Allianc
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 87% confidence
➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil front-month futures closing price on ICE remains at or above $100.00/barrel on every trading day from March 16, 2026 through June 30, 2026. A single daily close below $100/barrel falsifies the prediction. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran War Ripples Through Asia — Energy Shock Exposes Alliance Fragility
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Middle East Crisis & Energy Prices — The Spiral of ConflictOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: If the closing price of ICE Brent crude oil futures on June 30, 2026 is $100.00/barrel or higher, the result is "YES," and if it is lower, the result is "NO." → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisMiddle East Crisis & Energy Prices — The Spiral of Conflict Erodes the Global EconomyArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Middle East Crisis & Energy Prices — The Spiral of Conflict
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: If the closing price of ICE Brent crude oil futures on June 30, 2026 is $100.00/barrel or higher, the result is "YES," and if it is lower, the result is "NO." → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Middle East Crisis & Energy Prices — The Spiral of Conflict Erodes the Global Economy
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Oil Waiver for India — Sanctions Flexibility Reveals ImpeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified by official US Treasury announcement, executive order, or State Department communication confirming extension, renewal, or replacement of the March 2026 waiver allowing India to purchase Russian crude oil beyond the initial waiver period. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Oil Waiver for India — Sanctions Flexibility Reveals Imperial OverreachArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final19%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Oil Waiver for India — Sanctions Flexibility Reveals Impe
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified by official US Treasury announcement, executive order, or State Department communication confirming extension, renewal, or replacement of the March 2026 waiver allowing India to purchase Russian crude oil beyond the initial waiver period. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Oil Waiver for India — Sanctions Flexibility Reveals Imperial Overreach
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final19%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
19%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/xi-jinping/india
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:xi-jinpingentity:india
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: india has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: IMF Warns on Middle East Crisis — Energy Shock Threatens GloOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook (typically released mid-April) will contain a global GDP growth forecast for 2026. If this forecast is 3.2% or lower (i.e., at least 0.1 percentage points below the January 2026 WEO Update figure of 3.3%), the answer is YES. If it is 3.3% or higher, the answer is NO. The relevant figure is the headline global real GDP growth projection for calendar year 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIMF Warns on Middle East Crisis — Energy Shock Threatens Global RecoveryArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final26%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: IMF Warns on Middle East Crisis — Energy Shock Threatens Glo
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook (typically released mid-April) will contain a global GDP growth forecast for 2026. If this forecast is 3.2% or lower (i.e., at least 0.1 percentage points below the January 2026 WEO Update figure of 3.3%), the answer is YES. If it is 3.3% or higher, the answer is NO. The relevant figure is the headline global real GDP growth projection for calendar year 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
IMF Warns on Middle East Crisis — Energy Shock Threatens Global Recovery
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final26%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
26%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=imf
Referenced knowledge
entity:imf
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: imf has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Bid for the AI Platform LOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: OpenAI publicly reports or credibly leaks (via financial filings, investor materials, or reporting from The Information, Bloomberg, or Reuters citing direct sources) that its annualized enterprise API revenue has exceeded $10 billion by March 31, 2027. Consumer subscription revenue (ChatGPT Plus/Team/Enterprise seat licenses) is excluded; only API-based revenue counts. → ❌ Missed❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Bid for the AI Platform LayerArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Bid for the AI Platform L
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: OpenAI publicly reports or credibly leaks (via financial filings, investor materials, or reporting from The Information, Bloomberg, or Reuters citing direct sources) that its annualized enterprise API revenue has exceeded $10 billion by March 31, 2027. Consumer subscription revenue (ChatGPT Plus/Team/Enterprise seat licenses) is excluded; only API-based revenue counts. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Bid for the AI Platform Layer
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — Escalation Could Reshape the PacifiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed kinetic engagement is defined as any verified instance of weapons fire (missiles, naval guns, torpedoes, or directed energy weapons) exchanged between US, Japanese, or Taiwanese military forces and Chinese military forces in the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters, as reported by at least two independent credible news sources (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP, official government statements from any involved party). Accidental collisions or near-misses without weapons discharge do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Standoff — Escalation Could Reshape the Pacific OrderArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — Escalation Could Reshape the Pacifi
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed kinetic engagement is defined as any verified instance of weapons fire (missiles, naval guns, torpedoes, or directed energy weapons) exchanged between US, Japanese, or Taiwanese military forces and Chinese military forces in the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters, as reported by at least two independent credible news sources (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP, official government statements from any involved party). Accidental collisions or near-misses without weapons discharge do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Standoff — Escalation Could Reshape the Pacific Order
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO formally approve a new emergency military aid package for Ukraine by 2026-03-23?Key Event: Kyiv Drone Siege — NATO's Aid Paralysis Exposes Alliance FraOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO (North Atlantic Council or equivalent body) issues an official communiqué, press statement, or decision document announcing a new or supplemental military aid package specifically for Ukraine, distinct from previously committed packages, by 23:59 UTC on March 23, 2026. Bilateral announcements by individual member states do not count — it must be a NATO-level collective decision. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisKyiv Drone Siege — NATO's Aid Paralysis Exposes Alliance FracturesArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO formally approve a new emergency military aid package for Ukraine by 2026-03-23?
Key Event: Kyiv Drone Siege — NATO's Aid Paralysis Exposes Alliance Fra
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO (North Atlantic Council or equivalent body) issues an official communiqué, press statement, or decision document announcing a new or supplemental military aid package specifically for Ukraine, distinct from previously committed packages, by 23:59 UTC on March 23, 2026. Bilateral announcements by individual member states do not count — it must be a NATO-level collective decision. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Kyiv Drone Siege — NATO's Aid Paralysis Exposes Alliance Fractures
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ukraine/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:ukraineentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 1cf7ff3e859e (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: UN AI Regulation Framework — Global Standards vs. InnovationOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: The framework is considered 'formally adopted' if at least three of the five permanent UN Security Council members (P5) have signed the framework document by December 31, 2027. Signing means official government signature, not merely participating in negotiations or issuing statements of support. Ratification (domestic legislative approval) is not required — only signature. → ❌ Missed❓ Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 3%3% of prediction market capital bets on NOUN AI Regulation Framework — Global Standards vs. Innovation SovereigntyArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final3%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: UN AI Regulation Framework — Global Standards vs. Innovation
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: The framework is considered 'formally adopted' if at least three of the five permanent UN Security Council members (P5) have signed the framework document by December 31, 2027. Signing means official government signature, not merely participating in negotiations or issuing statements of support. Ratification (domestic legislative approval) is not required — only signature. → ❌ Missed
❓ Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 3%
3% of prediction market capital bets on NO
UN AI Regulation Framework — Global Standards vs. Innovation Sovereignty
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final3%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
3%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 97.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/china
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:china
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-India Oil Waiver — Sanctions Flexibility Reveals Empire'sOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 87% confidence➡ Verdict: Verifiable by official US Treasury/OFAC announcements, executive orders, or State Department communications confirming an extension, renewal, or new waiver allowing India to purchase Russian crude oil beyond the scope of the initial March 2026 waiver. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-India Oil Waiver — Sanctions Flexibility Reveals Empire's Energy DilemmaArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final19%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-India Oil Waiver — Sanctions Flexibility Reveals Empire's
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 87% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verifiable by official US Treasury/OFAC announcements, executive orders, or State Department communications confirming an extension, renewal, or new waiver allowing India to purchase Russian crude oil beyond the scope of the initial March 2026 waiver. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-India Oil Waiver — Sanctions Flexibility Reveals Empire's Energy Dilemma
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final19%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
19%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/xi-jinping/india
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:xi-jinpingentity:india
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: india has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Burden-Sharing — Trump's NATO Ultimatum Exposes AlliaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: At least three distinct European NATO member states must each officially announce a new or expanded commitment of at least one naval vessel (frigate, destroyer, or equivalent surface combatant) to operations in the Persian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz region, with deployment to begin by September 30, 2026. Existing rotational deployments that are simply renamed or rebranded do not count; there must be a net increase in committed assets. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Burden-Sharing — Trump's NATO Ultimatum Exposes Alliance FracturesArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final5%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Burden-Sharing — Trump's NATO Ultimatum Exposes Allia
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least three distinct European NATO member states must each officially announce a new or expanded commitment of at least one naval vessel (frigate, destroyer, or equivalent surface combatant) to operations in the Persian Gulf or Strait of Hormuz region, with deployment to begin by September 30, 2026. Existing rotational deployments that are simply renamed or rebranded do not count; there must be a net increase in committed assets. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Burden-Sharing — Trump's NATO Ultimatum Exposes Alliance Fractures
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final5%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
5%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump/nato/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:trumpentity:natoentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Congress Cedes War Powers — Institutional Decay Invites ImpeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A floor vote (not committee vote) in the U.S. Senate on any standalone legislation specifically addressing presidential war powers, AUMF repeal, or War Powers Resolution reform. Amendments to unrelated bills do not count unless they receive a standalone roll-call vote. The vote must occur before midnight Eastern Time on December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisCongress Cedes War Powers — Institutional Decay Invites Imperial OverreachArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final10%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Congress Cedes War Powers — Institutional Decay Invites Impe
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A floor vote (not committee vote) in the U.S. Senate on any standalone legislation specifically addressing presidential war powers, AUMF repeal, or War Powers Resolution reform. Amendments to unrelated bills do not count unless they receive a standalone roll-call vote. The vote must occur before midnight Eastern Time on December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Congress Cedes War Powers — Institutional Decay Invites Imperial Overreach
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final10%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
10%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran-Israel Nuclear Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That CoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A new UN Security Council resolution imposing additional sanctions on Iran (beyond existing measures) is formally adopted with the required 9 affirmative votes and no P5 veto by June 30, 2026. Abstentions that allow passage count as adoption. Presidential statements or non-binding resolutions do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Israel Nuclear Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Middle EastArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final32%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran-Israel Nuclear Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Co
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A new UN Security Council resolution imposing additional sanctions on Iran (beyond existing measures) is formally adopted with the required 9 affirmative votes and no P5 veto by June 30, 2026. Abstentions that allow passage count as adoption. Presidential statements or non-binding resolutions do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Israel Nuclear Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Middle East
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final32%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
32%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 68.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.10
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's Dollar Defiance — Crypto Decouples From Equities iOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) spot price on major exchanges (Coinbase, Binance) is above $72,000.00 at any point during the 24-hour UTC period of June 13, 2026. Price must be verified via CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, or equivalent aggregator. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's Dollar Defiance — Crypto Decouples From Equities in 2026Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final8%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's Dollar Defiance — Crypto Decouples From Equities i
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) spot price on major exchanges (Coinbase, Binance) is above $72,000.00 at any point during the 24-hour UTC period of June 13, 2026. Price must be verified via CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, or equivalent aggregator. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's Dollar Defiance — Crypto Decouples From Equities in 2026
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final8%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
8%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: UK-US Alliance Fracture: Trump's Iran Policy Tests NATO's ReOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the UK Ministry of Defence or the UK government officially announces the deployment of a carrier strike group centered on a Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier (HMS Queen Elizabeth or HMS Prince of Wales) to the Middle East region (Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, or Red Sea) and the vessels actually reach the region. Small deployments of only destroyers or frigates are excluded. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUK-US Alliance Fracture: Trump's Iran Policy Tests NATO's ResolveArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: UK-US Alliance Fracture: Trump's Iran Policy Tests NATO's Re
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the UK Ministry of Defence or the UK government officially announces the deployment of a carrier strike group centered on a Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier (HMS Queen Elizabeth or HMS Prince of Wales) to the Middle East region (Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea, or Red Sea) and the vessels actually reach the region. Small deployments of only destroyers or frigates are excluded. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
UK-US Alliance Fracture: Trump's Iran Policy Tests NATO's Resolve
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trumpentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan-US Summit & Iran — Alliance's 'Price' at a StructuralOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the joint statement, press conference, or official announcement following a Japan-US summit clearly mentions the extension of the US 25% automobile tariff exemption for Japan (for at least 3 months). NO if tariffs are imposed without exemption or if there is no mention of an exemption. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan-US Summit & Iran — Alliance's 'Price' at a Structural Turning PointArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan-US Summit & Iran — Alliance's 'Price' at a Structural
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the joint statement, press conference, or official announcement following a Japan-US summit clearly mentions the extension of the US 25% automobile tariff exemption for Japan (for at least 3 months). NO if tariffs are imposed without exemption or if there is no mention of an exemption. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan-US Summit & Iran — Alliance's 'Price' at a Structural Turning Point
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japandynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: 42ed37273be4 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO formally approve a new military aid package for Ukraine exceeding $5 billion by 2026-03-31?Key Event: Kyiv Under Fire — NATO's Aid Gridlock Fuels an Escalation SpOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO (as an alliance via official communiqué or joint statement) formally announces approval of a new dedicated military aid package for Ukraine with a total value exceeding $5 billion USD, with specific deliverables and timelines, by March 31, 2026. Individual bilateral aid announcements by member states do not count unless bundled under an official NATO framework. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisKyiv Under Fire — NATO's Aid Gridlock Fuels an Escalation SpiralArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO formally approve a new military aid package for Ukraine exceeding $5 billion by 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Kyiv Under Fire — NATO's Aid Gridlock Fuels an Escalation Sp
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO (as an alliance via official communiqué or joint statement) formally announces approval of a new dedicated military aid package for Ukraine with a total value exceeding $5 billion USD, with specific deliverables and timelines, by March 31, 2026. Individual bilateral aid announcements by member states do not count unless bundled under an official NATO framework. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Kyiv Under Fire — NATO's Aid Gridlock Fuels an Escalation Spiral
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: dd8440cf79ae (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the Takaichi-Trump summit (week of March 16-20, 2026) produce a joint statement that includes specific language committing Japan to enforce US sanctions on Iranian oil imports?Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Strain Meets Iran Crisis CaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: The official joint statement or communiqué from the Takaichi-Trump summit is reviewed for specific language committing Japan to enforce, comply with, or implement US sanctions targeting Iranian oil imports. General language about non-proliferation or 'international cooperation on Iran' does NOT qualify. The statement must contain explicit reference to sanctions enforcement or Iranian oil import restrictions applicable to Japan. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTakaichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Strain Meets Iran Crisis CalculusArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the Takaichi-Trump summit (week of March 16-20, 2026) produce a joint statement that includes specific language committing Japan to enforce US sanctions on Iranian oil imports?
Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Strain Meets Iran Crisis Ca
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: The official joint statement or communiqué from the Takaichi-Trump summit is reviewed for specific language committing Japan to enforce, comply with, or implement US sanctions targeting Iranian oil imports. General language about non-proliferation or 'international cooperation on Iran' does NOT qualify. The statement must contain explicit reference to sanctions enforcement or Iranian oil import restrictions applicable to Japan. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Takaichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Strain Meets Iran Crisis Calculus
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japanentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: befaa9776384 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-China Paris Trade Talks — Tariffs & Rare Earths Reflect aOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 27% confidence➡ Verdict: To be judged on whether the US and Chinese governments officially announce a bilateral agreement (joint statement, memorandum of understanding (MOU), interim agreement, or formal agreement) regarding the supply and trade of rare earths by June 30, 2026, as confirmed by official government announcements or reports from major news agencies (Reuters, AP, Xinhua). Verbal agreement declarations alone are not sufficient; a documented agreement is required. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-China Paris Trade Talks — Tariffs & Rare Earths Reflect a Structural ShiftArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-China Paris Trade Talks — Tariffs & Rare Earths Reflect a
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: To be judged on whether the US and Chinese governments officially announce a bilateral agreement (joint statement, memorandum of understanding (MOU), interim agreement, or formal agreement) regarding the supply and trade of rare earths by June 30, 2026, as confirmed by official government announcements or reports from major news agencies (Reuters, AP, Xinhua). Verbal agreement declarations alone are not sufficient; a documented agreement is required. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-China Paris Trade Talks — Tariffs & Rare Earths Reflect a Structural Shift
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=tariff-escalation/us-china-trade-war
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:tariff-escalationdynamic:us-china-trade-warpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Crisis & Trump's Pressure — Alliance Cracks Amplify ROur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if at least two NATO member states (excluding the US) officially announce a new deployment of naval vessels to the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz (Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, northern Arabian Sea). The condition is that it must be a new deployment decision, not an extension of an existing deployment. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Crisis & Trump's Pressure — Alliance Cracks Amplify Resource CrisisArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Crisis & Trump's Pressure — Alliance Cracks Amplify R
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if at least two NATO member states (excluding the US) officially announce a new deployment of naval vessels to the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz (Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, northern Arabian Sea). The condition is that it must be a new deployment decision, not an extension of an existing deployment. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Crisis & Trump's Pressure — Alliance Cracks Amplify Resource Crisis
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:trumpentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Strait Crisis — Trump's Burden-Sharing Ultimatum ReshOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reports from official Chinese military sources, credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP), or U.S. Department of Defense confirming that at least one PLA Navy warship has conducted escort, patrol, or security operations within the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman specifically in response to the current Hormuz shipping disruption crisis. Routine anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden that do not extend to the Hormuz area do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Strait Crisis — Trump's Burden-Sharing Ultimatum Reshapes Maritime SecurityArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final46%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Strait Crisis — Trump's Burden-Sharing Ultimatum Resh
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reports from official Chinese military sources, credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP), or U.S. Department of Defense confirming that at least one PLA Navy warship has conducted escort, patrol, or security operations within the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Oman specifically in response to the current Hormuz shipping disruption crisis. Routine anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden that do not extend to the Hormuz area do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Strait Crisis — Trump's Burden-Sharing Ultimatum Reshapes Maritime Security
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final46%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
46%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 46.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.29
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Oil Waiver for India — Sanctions Flexibility Reveals ImpeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 87% confidence➡ Verdict: Verifiable by official US Treasury OFAC announcements or executive orders: if any formal extension, renewal, or replacement waiver allowing India to purchase Russian oil is issued with an effective date after May 31, 2026, the answer is YES. If the waiver expires without renewal and no replacement mechanism is announced, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Oil Waiver for India — Sanctions Flexibility Reveals Imperial OverreachArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final19%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Oil Waiver for India — Sanctions Flexibility Reveals Impe
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 87% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verifiable by official US Treasury OFAC announcements or executive orders: if any formal extension, renewal, or replacement waiver allowing India to purchase Russian oil is issued with an effective date after May 31, 2026, the answer is YES. If the waiver expires without renewal and no replacement mechanism is announced, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Oil Waiver for India — Sanctions Flexibility Reveals Imperial Overreach
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final19%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
19%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/xi-jinping/india
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:xi-jinpingentity:india
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: india has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Crisis 2026 — Great Power Competition's StructOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if, by December 31, 2026, there is an officially confirmed armed conflict (including shooting, missile launches, and the downing/sinking of ships/aircraft) in or around the Taiwan Strait between the People's Liberation Army and the Taiwanese or US military, resulting in the death of at least one military personnel. YES even if the incident is an accident during exercises or an unintentional collision, as long as a death is confirmed. NO in the case of verbal threats, radar lock-ons, or airspace/territorial waters violations alone. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Crisis 2026 — Great Power Competition's Structural ShiftTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Crisis 2026 — Great Power Competition's Struct
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if, by December 31, 2026, there is an officially confirmed armed conflict (including shooting, missile launches, and the downing/sinking of ships/aircraft) in or around the Taiwan Strait between the People's Liberation Army and the Taiwanese or US military, resulting in the death of at least one military personnel. YES even if the incident is an accident during exercises or an unintentional collision, as long as a death is confirmed. NO in the case of verbal threats, radar lock-ons, or airspace/territorial waters violations alone. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Crisis 2026 — Great Power Competition's Structural Shift
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump-Putin Iran Call: Great Power Bargaining in the MiddleOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A publicly released written statement, communiqué, or press release jointly attributed to both the U.S. and Russian governments that explicitly references Iran's nuclear program and outlines shared positions or agreed actions. Separate statements following a meeting do not qualify; it must be a joint document. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump-Putin Iran Call: Great Power Bargaining in the Middle EastArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final10%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump-Putin Iran Call: Great Power Bargaining in the Middle
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A publicly released written statement, communiqué, or press release jointly attributed to both the U.S. and Russian governments that explicitly references Iran's nuclear program and outlines shared positions or agreed actions. Separate statements following a meeting do not qualify; it must be a joint document. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump-Putin Iran Call: Great Power Bargaining in the Middle East
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final10%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
10%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Crypto's F1 Gamble: War Shatters Gulf's Sportswashing CompacOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if the FIA or Formula One Management officially confirms that at least one of the 2026 Bahrain GP, Saudi Arabian GP, Qatar GP, or Abu Dhabi GP has been cancelled entirely (not postponed to a later date within the region) or relocated to a circuit outside the Middle East. Resolved NO if all four races take place at their originally scheduled Middle East venues during the 2026 season. → ❌ Missed❓ Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOCrypto's F1 Gamble: War Shatters Gulf's Sportswashing CompactArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Crypto's F1 Gamble: War Shatters Gulf's Sportswashing Compac
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if the FIA or Formula One Management officially confirms that at least one of the 2026 Bahrain GP, Saudi Arabian GP, Qatar GP, or Abu Dhabi GP has been cancelled entirely (not postponed to a later date within the region) or relocated to a circuit outside the Middle East. Resolved NO if all four races take place at their originally scheduled Middle East venues during the 2026 season. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Crypto's F1 Gamble: War Shatters Gulf's Sportswashing Compact
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan-US Summit and Iran: Alliance Loyalty Test Challenges JOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Judged on whether the joint statement or joint document issued after the Japan-US summit includes wording that clearly states specific additional sanctions actions by Japan, such as "Japan will implement new independent sanctions against Iran" or "Japan will participate in US sanctions against Iran with concrete measures." General comprehensive expressions such as "shared concerns" or "cooperation with the international community" are not applicable. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan-US Summit and Iran: Alliance Loyalty Test Challenges Japan's AutonomyArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan-US Summit and Iran: Alliance Loyalty Test Challenges J
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Judged on whether the joint statement or joint document issued after the Japan-US summit includes wording that clearly states specific additional sanctions actions by Japan, such as "Japan will implement new independent sanctions against Iran" or "Japan will participate in US sanctions against Iran with concrete measures." General comprehensive expressions such as "shared concerns" or "cooperation with the international community" are not applicable. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan-US Summit and Iran: Alliance Loyalty Test Challenges Japan's Autonomy
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 96abb2615da6 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the Takaichi-Trump summit joint statement include a specific reference to a bilateral framework or timeline for reviewing US auto tariffs on Japan by 2026-03-31?Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit: Alliance Strain and Middle East EscalOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: The official joint statement or joint press conference transcript from the Takaichi-Trump summit explicitly mentions a mechanism, framework, commission, or timeline for reviewing, negotiating, or reconsidering the 25% US tariff on Japanese automobile imports. Vague language about 'trade cooperation' without specific reference to auto tariffs does not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTakaichi-Trump Summit: Alliance Strain and Middle East EscalationArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the Takaichi-Trump summit joint statement include a specific reference to a bilateral framework or timeline for reviewing US auto tariffs on Japan by 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit: Alliance Strain and Middle East Escal
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: The official joint statement or joint press conference transcript from the Takaichi-Trump summit explicitly mentions a mechanism, framework, commission, or timeline for reviewing, negotiating, or reconsidering the 25% US tariff on Japanese automobile imports. Vague language about 'trade cooperation' without specific reference to auto tariffs does not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Takaichi-Trump Summit: Alliance Strain and Middle East Escalation
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/trump / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence/tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:trumpdynamic:escalation-overconfidencedynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: 0973e6e7fe01 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-China Paris Trade Talks: Tariffs and Rare Earths ReshapeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if President Trump officially visits China and holds a summit meeting with President Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026, as confirmed by major news organizations (NHK, Reuters, or AP). NO if the visit is postponed/cancelled or if there is only informal contact. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-China Paris Trade Talks: Tariffs and Rare Earths Reshape HegemonyArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-China Paris Trade Talks: Tariffs and Rare Earths Reshape
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if President Trump officially visits China and holds a summit meeting with President Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026, as confirmed by major news organizations (NHK, Reuters, or AP). NO if the visit is postponed/cancelled or if there is only informal contact. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-China Paris Trade Talks: Tariffs and Rare Earths Reshape Hegemony
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/trump / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:trumpdynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-China Paris Trade Talks: Rare Earths as the New LeverageOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 69% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal joint statement, memorandum of understanding, or announced agreement between the US and China on trade issues (tariffs, rare earths, or both) is published by official government sources of either country before April 30, 2026. Vague communiqués without specific commitments do not qualify; there must be at least one concrete, verifiable commitment (tariff rate change, supply volume, or review mechanism with dates). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-China Paris Trade Talks: Rare Earths as the New Leverage BattlegroundArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final47%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-China Paris Trade Talks: Rare Earths as the New Leverage
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 69% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal joint statement, memorandum of understanding, or announced agreement between the US and China on trade issues (tariffs, rare earths, or both) is published by official government sources of either country before April 30, 2026. Vague communiqués without specific commitments do not qualify; there must be at least one concrete, verifiable commitment (tariff rate change, supply volume, or review mechanism with dates). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-China Paris Trade Talks: Rare Earths as the New Leverage Battleground
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final47%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
47%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 31.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 47.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.48) / market raw 0.28
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: ODA Reform: Economic Security Era Tests Japan's Strategic AuOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if, by December 31, 2026, any of the following regarding the ODA implementation system is decided by the Cabinet and confirmed in the Official Gazette or government announcement: (1) establishment of a cross-ministerial new organization/coordination body, (2) significant changes to the functions/authority of JICA involving amendments to the JICA Establishment Act, or (3) fundamental changes to the ODA-related budget allocation method. Publication of proposals from expert panels alone is not applicable. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisODA Reform: Economic Security Era Tests Japan's Strategic AutonomyArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final14%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: ODA Reform: Economic Security Era Tests Japan's Strategic Au
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if, by December 31, 2026, any of the following regarding the ODA implementation system is decided by the Cabinet and confirmed in the Official Gazette or government announcement: (1) establishment of a cross-ministerial new organization/coordination body, (2) significant changes to the functions/authority of JICA involving amendments to the JICA Establishment Act, or (3) fundamental changes to the ODA-related budget allocation method. Publication of proposals from expert panels alone is not applicable. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
ODA Reform: Economic Security Era Tests Japan's Strategic Autonomy
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final14%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
14%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-5's Multimodal Leap: Winner-Takes-All Race for EnterprisOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Based on publicly available market share data from analyst firms (Gartner, IDC, Forrester) or credible third-party estimates, OpenAI's GPT-5 (and its variants) must account for more than 40% of enterprise foundation model API revenue (excluding internal usage by hyperscalers) as of Q4 2026. If no authoritative data is available, resolution is based on consensus of at least two major analyst reports published by March 2027. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-5's Multimodal Leap: Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AIArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-5's Multimodal Leap: Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterpris
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Based on publicly available market share data from analyst firms (Gartner, IDC, Forrester) or credible third-party estimates, OpenAI's GPT-5 (and its variants) must account for more than 40% of enterprise foundation model API revenue (excluding internal usage by hyperscalers) as of Q4 2026. If no authoritative data is available, resolution is based on consensus of at least two major analyst reports published by March 2027. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-5's Multimodal Leap: Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AI
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China announce a formal named military exercise in the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters by 2026-03-31?Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions: Escalation Spiral Beijing Can't RevOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official announcement by China's Ministry of National Defense or the PLA Eastern Theater Command of a named military exercise (e.g., 'Joint Sword-2026' or equivalent) with defined exercise zones in or around the Taiwan Strait. Routine 'training activities' without a named exercise designation and defined exclusion zones do not count. The announcement must be made by 2026-03-31 23:59 UTC. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Drone Incursions: Escalation Spiral Beijing Can't ReverseArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China announce a formal named military exercise in the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters by 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions: Escalation Spiral Beijing Can't Rev
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official announcement by China's Ministry of National Defense or the PLA Eastern Theater Command of a named military exercise (e.g., 'Joint Sword-2026' or equivalent) with defined exercise zones in or around the Taiwan Strait. Routine 'training activities' without a named exercise designation and defined exclusion zones do not count. The announcement must be made by 2026-03-31 23:59 UTC. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Drone Incursions: Escalation Spiral Beijing Can't Reverse
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 111a7df1a5bb (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO issue a formal ultimatum to Russia demanding withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons from the Ukrainian border area by 2026-03-19?Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit: NATO's Red Lines TestedOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 1% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal NATO ultimatum is defined as an official statement from the North Atlantic Council or NATO Secretary General that explicitly demands Russia withdraw the deployed tactical nuclear weapons within a specified timeframe, with stated consequences for non-compliance. General condemnation, calls for restraint, or demands without a specific deadline and consequence framework do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit: NATO's Red Lines TestedArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO issue a formal ultimatum to Russia demanding withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons from the Ukrainian border area by 2026-03-19?
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit: NATO's Red Lines Tested
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 1% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal NATO ultimatum is defined as an official statement from the North Atlantic Council or NATO Secretary General that explicitly demands Russia withdraw the deployed tactical nuclear weapons within a specified timeframe, with stated consequences for non-compliance. General condemnation, calls for restraint, or demands without a specific deadline and consequence framework do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit: NATO's Red Lines Tested
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 99.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 17475d05e2fe (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Safety Standards — Regulation as the New CompetitiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: Count the number of acquisitions announced between 2026-03-17 and 2027-06-30 where: (1) the acquirer is a public company with market capitalization exceeding $500B at the time of announcement, (2) the target is a company primarily focused on foundation model development, (3) the target had a valuation or last funding round valuation exceeding $1B, and (4) regulatory compliance burden is cited as a factor in reporting or company statements. If 3 or more such acquisitions are announced, the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Safety Standards — Regulation as the New Competitive MoatArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final47%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Safety Standards — Regulation as the New Competiti
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: Count the number of acquisitions announced between 2026-03-17 and 2027-06-30 where: (1) the acquirer is a public company with market capitalization exceeding $500B at the time of announcement, (2) the target is a company primarily focused on foundation model development, (3) the target had a valuation or last funding round valuation exceeding $1B, and (4) regulatory compliance burden is cited as a factor in reporting or company statements. If 3 or more such acquisitions are announced, the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Safety Standards — Regulation as the New Competitive Moat
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final47%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
47%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 47.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67) / market raw 0.28
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Stablecoin Crackdown — Regulatory Capture Reshapes DigitaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: Compare the average daily combined trading volume of USDT and USDC across major exchanges (as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap) for the full month of December 2026 against the average daily combined trading volume for the full month of January 2026. If December 2026 average is equal to or greater than January 2026 average, the answer is YES. If December 2026 average is lower, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOUS Stablecoin Crackdown — Regulatory Capture Reshapes Digital Dollar MarketsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Stablecoin Crackdown — Regulatory Capture Reshapes Digita
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: Compare the average daily combined trading volume of USDT and USDC across major exchanges (as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap) for the full month of December 2026 against the average daily combined trading volume for the full month of January 2026. If December 2026 average is equal to or greater than January 2026 average, the answer is YES. If December 2026 average is lower, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
US Stablecoin Crackdown — Regulatory Capture Reshapes Digital Dollar Markets
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breach — Institutional FOMO Meets RegulatoryOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 23% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's spot price on the Coinbase BTC/USD pair at 00:00 UTC on June 30, 2026 must be at or above $120,000.00 for a YES resolution. Any price below $120,000.00 at that specific timestamp resolves as NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breach — Institutional FOMO Meets Regulatory ReckoningArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breach — Institutional FOMO Meets Regulatory
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 23% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's spot price on the Coinbase BTC/USD pair at 00:00 UTC on June 30, 2026 must be at or above $120,000.00 for a YES resolution. Any price below $120,000.00 at that specific timestamp resolves as NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breach — Institutional FOMO Meets Regulatory Reckoning
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from official US Department of Defense or Chinese Ministry of National Defense sources, or verified by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP), of any of the following between US and Chinese military forces in the South China Sea: (1) exchange of weapons fire including warning shots, (2) deliberate ramming resulting in hull damage, (3) seizure or boarding of military vessels, or (4) detention of military personnel. Coast guard encounters involving only water cannons or blocking maneuvers do not qualify unless they involve uniformed military forces of the PLA Navy or US Navy. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from official US Department of Defense or Chinese Ministry of National Defense sources, or verified by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP), of any of the following between US and Chinese military forces in the South China Sea: (1) exchange of weapons fire including warning shots, (2) deliberate ramming resulting in hull damage, (3) seizure or boarding of military vessels, or (4) detention of military personnel. Coast guard encounters involving only water cannons or blocking maneuvers do not qualify unless they involve uniformed military forces of the PLA Navy or US Navy. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Escalation — The Spiral That Rewrites AsianOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed by official US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense statement, or credible international media reporting (Reuters, AP, AFP) that a US or Chinese military vessel or aircraft discharged weapons (live ammunition, missiles, or directed energy weapons) at or in the direction of the other nation's military assets in the South China Sea between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. Coast guard water cannon incidents do not count; the threshold is military weapons discharge. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Escalation — The Spiral That Rewrites Asian SecurityArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final96%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Escalation — The Spiral That Rewrites Asian
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed by official US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense statement, or credible international media reporting (Reuters, AP, AFP) that a US or Chinese military vessel or aircraft discharged weapons (live ammunition, missiles, or directed energy weapons) at or in the direction of the other nation's military assets in the South China Sea between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. Coast guard water cannon incidents do not count; the threshold is military weapons discharge. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Escalation — The Spiral That Rewrites Asian Security
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final96%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
96%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 96.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-China Paris Trade Talks — Rare Earth Leverage Meets TarifOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal joint statement, memorandum of understanding, or announced 'deal' or 'framework agreement' on trade issues between the US and China, announced during or immediately following a Trump visit to China, confirmed by official government sources from both nations by April 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-China Paris Trade Talks — Rare Earth Leverage Meets Tariff EscalationArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-China Paris Trade Talks — Rare Earth Leverage Meets Tarif
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal joint statement, memorandum of understanding, or announced 'deal' or 'framework agreement' on trade issues between the US and China, announced during or immediately following a Trump visit to China, confirmed by official government sources from both nations by April 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-China Paris Trade Talks — Rare Earth Leverage Meets Tariff Escalation
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/trump / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence/tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:trumpdynamic:escalation-overconfidencedynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Brinkmanship — The Escalation Spiral NeitherOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A verified, publicly reported incident in which US and Chinese military personnel or platforms directly fire weapons at each other (including missiles, guns, or directed energy weapons) in the South China Sea. Accidental collisions without weapons fire, cyber operations, or coast guard (non-military) encounters do not qualify. The incident must be acknowledged by at least one government. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Brinkmanship — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Brinkmanship — The Escalation Spiral Neither
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A verified, publicly reported incident in which US and Chinese military personnel or platforms directly fire weapons at each other (including missiles, guns, or directed energy weapons) in the South China Sea. Accidental collisions without weapons fire, cyber operations, or coast guard (non-military) encounters do not qualify. The incident must be acknowledged by at least one government. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Brinkmanship — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Putin's Iran Uranium Gambit — Nuclear Diplomacy as GeopolitiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified by IAEA report or official government announcement confirming a physical transfer of Iranian enriched uranium (above 20% enrichment) to a foreign country has occurred or been formally agreed to with a specific implementation timeline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPutin's Iran Uranium Gambit — Nuclear Diplomacy as Geopolitical LeverageArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Putin's Iran Uranium Gambit — Nuclear Diplomacy as Geopoliti
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified by IAEA report or official government announcement confirming a physical transfer of Iranian enriched uranium (above 20% enrichment) to a foreign country has occurred or been formally agreed to with a specific implementation timeline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Putin's Iran Uranium Gambit — Nuclear Diplomacy as Geopolitical Leverage
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/putin
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:putin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Strait Crisis & Trump's Burden Sharing — Alliance CraOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 73% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if, by June 30, 2026, at least one NATO member country (excluding the United States) dispatches a naval vessel (frigate or larger) to the Persian Gulf with the explicit purpose of ensuring the security of the Strait of Hormuz, and the government or Ministry of Defense of said country officially announces it. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Strait Crisis & Trump's Burden Sharing — Alliance Cracks Amplify Resource CrisisArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Strait Crisis & Trump's Burden Sharing — Alliance Cra
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 73% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if, by June 30, 2026, at least one NATO member country (excluding the United States) dispatches a naval vessel (frigate or larger) to the Persian Gulf with the explicit purpose of ensuring the security of the Strait of Hormuz, and the government or Ministry of Defense of said country officially announces it. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Strait Crisis & Trump's Burden Sharing — Alliance Cracks Amplify Resource Crisis
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 27.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.53)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:trumpentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Strait Crisis — Trump's Burden-Sharing Gambit StrainsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 27% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO officially announces a named maritime operation or mission mandate for the Persian Gulf / Strait of Hormuz region, with at least 3 member states committing warships, as confirmed by NATO official communications. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Strait Crisis — Trump's Burden-Sharing Gambit Strains AlliancesArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final46%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Strait Crisis — Trump's Burden-Sharing Gambit Strains
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO officially announces a named maritime operation or mission mandate for the Persian Gulf / Strait of Hormuz region, with at least 3 member states committing warships, as confirmed by NATO official communications. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Strait Crisis — Trump's Burden-Sharing Gambit Strains Alliances
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final46%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
46%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 46.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07) / market raw 0.29
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:trumpentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea's Missile Resumption — Japan's Defense InflectioOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Japan's Ministry of Defense or the Prime Minister's Office officially confirms that a Japanese missile defense system (SM-3 or PAC-3) successfully intercepted a North Korean ballistic missile in an actual engagement (not a test). The interception must be against a real North Korean launch, not a planned exercise or test target. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea's Missile Resumption — Japan's Defense Inflection PointArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final12%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea's Missile Resumption — Japan's Defense Inflectio
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Japan's Ministry of Defense or the Prime Minister's Office officially confirms that a Japanese missile defense system (SM-3 or PAC-3) successfully intercepted a North Korean ballistic missile in an actual engagement (not a test). The interception must be against a real North Korean launch, not a planned exercise or test target. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea's Missile Resumption — Japan's Defense Inflection Point
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final12%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
12%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/north-korea
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:north-korea
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-5's Multimodal Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for EnteOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Measured by third-party analyst estimates (Gartner, IDC, or Forrester) of enterprise AI platform revenue share for OpenAI (including Microsoft Azure OpenAI Service revenue attributed to OpenAI models) compared to total enterprise AI platform market. If no authoritative third-party report is available by the deadline, the question resolves as NO by default. The 35% threshold refers to revenue share, not usage share or API call volume. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-5's Multimodal Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AIArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-5's Multimodal Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Ente
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Measured by third-party analyst estimates (Gartner, IDC, or Forrester) of enterprise AI platform revenue share for OpenAI (including Microsoft Azure OpenAI Service revenue attributed to OpenAI models) compared to total enterprise AI platform market. If no authoritative third-party report is available by the deadline, the question resolves as NO by default. The 35% threshold refers to revenue share, not usage share or API call volume. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-5's Multimodal Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AI
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO issue a formal ultimatum to Russia demanding withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons from the Ukrainian border zone by 2026-03-19?Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests NOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO➡ Verdict: A formal, publicly issued NATO statement that explicitly uses ultimatum language — demanding Russian withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons within a specific timeframe, with stated consequences for non-compliance — constitutes a YES. General condemnation, calls for withdrawal without specific deadlines, or private diplomatic communications do not qualify. The statement must come from NATO as an institution (Secretary General or North Atlantic Council), not individual member states. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red LinesArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO issue a formal ultimatum to Russia demanding withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons from the Ukrainian border zone by 2026-03-19?
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests N
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO
➡ Verdict: A formal, publicly issued NATO statement that explicitly uses ultimatum language — demanding Russian withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons within a specific timeframe, with stated consequences for non-compliance — constitutes a YES. General condemnation, calls for withdrawal without specific deadlines, or private diplomatic communications do not qualify. The statement must come from NATO as an institution (Secretary General or North Atlantic Council), not individual member states. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red Lines
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 100.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: fbe3f042a611 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Safety Standards — Regulation as the New CompetitiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Compare total Series A AI startup funding in the US and EU for calendar year 2026 versus 2025, using PitchBook, Crunchbase, or CB Insights data. A decline of 10% or more in combined US+EU Series A AI funding (measured in USD) constitutes a YES outcome. Any result less than a 10% decline constitutes NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Safety Standards — Regulation as the New Competitive BattlegroundArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final47%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Safety Standards — Regulation as the New Competiti
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Compare total Series A AI startup funding in the US and EU for calendar year 2026 versus 2025, using PitchBook, Crunchbase, or CB Insights data. A decline of 10% or more in combined US+EU Series A AI funding (measured in USD) constitutes a YES outcome. Any result less than a 10% decline constitutes NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Safety Standards — Regulation as the New Competitive Battleground
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final47%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
47%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 47.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.28
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A direct military engagement is defined as any of the following between US and Chinese military forces in the South China Sea: (1) deliberate firing of weapons (kinetic or directed energy) at the other nation's vessel or aircraft; (2) deliberate ramming causing structural damage; (3) boarding or seizure of the other nation's military vessel. Accidental collisions, close encounters without contact, or gray-zone actions by coast guard or maritime militia do not qualify. Verification via official statements from US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or credible international news organizations (Reuters, AP, AFP). → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A direct military engagement is defined as any of the following between US and Chinese military forces in the South China Sea: (1) deliberate firing of weapons (kinetic or directed energy) at the other nation's vessel or aircraft; (2) deliberate ramming causing structural damage; (3) boarding or seizure of the other nation's military vessel. Accidental collisions, close encounters without contact, or gray-zone actions by coast guard or maritime militia do not qualify. Verification via official statements from US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or credible international news organizations (Reuters, AP, AFP). → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Takaichi's US Visit & Japan-US Summit — Alliance RestructuriOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: ① A Japan-U.S. summit is actually held by March 31, 2026, and ② the Iranian nuclear issue is explicitly mentioned in the joint statement or joint press conference after the meeting, as confirmed by official Japanese government announcements or reports from major news organizations such as NHK - YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTakaichi's US Visit & Japan-US Summit — Alliance Restructuring and Middle East RisksArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Takaichi's US Visit & Japan-US Summit — Alliance Restructuri
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: ① A Japan-U.S. summit is actually held by March 31, 2026, and ② the Iranian nuclear issue is explicitly mentioned in the joint statement or joint press conference after the meeting, as confirmed by official Japanese government announcements or reports from major news organizations such as NHK - YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Takaichi's US Visit & Japan-US Summit — Alliance Restructuring and Middle East Risks
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: 899802e1d65e (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the Takaichi-Trump summit joint statement include a specific commitment by Japan to reduce Iranian oil-linked imports by 2026-03-31?Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Strain Meets Iran Crisis CaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: The official joint statement or communiqué from the Takaichi-Trump summit explicitly mentions Japan committing to reduce, phase out, or eliminate Iranian oil or energy imports with a specific timeline or quantitative target. Vague language about 'coordinating on Iran sanctions' without specific import reduction commitments does not qualify as YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTakaichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Strain Meets Iran Crisis CalculusArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the Takaichi-Trump summit joint statement include a specific commitment by Japan to reduce Iranian oil-linked imports by 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Strain Meets Iran Crisis Ca
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: The official joint statement or communiqué from the Takaichi-Trump summit explicitly mentions Japan committing to reduce, phase out, or eliminate Iranian oil or energy imports with a specific timeline or quantitative target. Vague language about 'coordinating on Iran sanctions' without specific import reduction commitments does not qualify as YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Takaichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Strain Meets Iran Crisis Calculus
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japanentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 2bb196b5020f (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-China Paris Trade Talks — Rare Earths Reflect a HegemonicOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: As of June 30, 2026, a bilateral agreement document containing specific quantities, periods, and conditions regarding rare earth supply is confirmed in official announcements (government websites, official press conferences, official gazettes) from the U.S. government and the Chinese government. Vague joint statements expressing "efforts toward stable supply" are not included in the agreement - YES/NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-China Paris Trade Talks — Rare Earths Reflect a Hegemonic Power ShiftTracker-only判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-China Paris Trade Talks — Rare Earths Reflect a Hegemonic
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: As of June 30, 2026, a bilateral agreement document containing specific quantities, periods, and conditions regarding rare earth supply is confirmed in official announcements (government websites, official press conferences, official gazettes) from the U.S. government and the Chinese government. Vague joint statements expressing "efforts toward stable supply" are not included in the agreement - YES/NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-China Paris Trade Talks — Rare Earths Reflect a Hegemonic Power Shift
Tracker-only
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=us-china-trade-war
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:us-china-trade-warpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-China Paris Trade Talks — Rare Earths as the New LeverageOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal, publicly announced bilateral agreement or memorandum of understanding between the US and China that explicitly addresses both tariff adjustments and rare earth supply commitments, announced by either government through official channels before June 30, 2026. Vague joint statements without specific provisions do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-China Paris Trade Talks — Rare Earths as the New Leverage FrontierArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final47%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-China Paris Trade Talks — Rare Earths as the New Leverage
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal, publicly announced bilateral agreement or memorandum of understanding between the US and China that explicitly addresses both tariff adjustments and rare earth supply commitments, announced by either government through official channels before June 30, 2026. Vague joint statements without specific provisions do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-China Paris Trade Talks — Rare Earths as the New Leverage Frontier
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final47%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
47%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 47.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38) / market raw 0.28
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Crisis & Trump's Burden Sharing — Alliance Cracks AmpOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: By June 30, 2026, a NATO member (excluding the United States) or China newly dispatches one or more warships (frigates, destroyers, patrol vessels, etc.) to the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf for the purpose of escorting ships or maritime security activities, as confirmed by official announcements from the government of the country concerned or reliable international news organizations. Includes expansion of existing deployments - YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Crisis & Trump's Burden Sharing — Alliance Cracks Amplify Resource CrisisTracker-only判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Crisis & Trump's Burden Sharing — Alliance Cracks Amp
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: By June 30, 2026, a NATO member (excluding the United States) or China newly dispatches one or more warships (frigates, destroyers, patrol vessels, etc.) to the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf for the purpose of escorting ships or maritime security activities, as confirmed by official announcements from the government of the country concerned or reliable international news organizations. Includes expansion of existing deployments - YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Crisis & Trump's Burden Sharing — Alliance Cracks Amplify Resource Crisis
Tracker-only
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/trump/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:trumpentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Strait Crisis — Trump's Burden-Sharing Gambit StrainsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 73% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO (through official communiqué, press statement, or Secretary General announcement) formally confirms the establishment or deployment of a dedicated naval task force, standing maritime group, or named operation specifically for escort or security operations in the Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf region. Informal bilateral deployments by individual NATO members do not qualify; it must be a NATO-branded or NATO-coordinated mission. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Strait Crisis — Trump's Burden-Sharing Gambit Strains AlliancesArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final46%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Strait Crisis — Trump's Burden-Sharing Gambit Strains
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 73% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO (through official communiqué, press statement, or Secretary General announcement) formally confirms the establishment or deployment of a dedicated naval task force, standing maritime group, or named operation specifically for escort or security operations in the Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf region. Informal bilateral deployments by individual NATO members do not qualify; it must be a NATO-branded or NATO-coordinated mission. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Strait Crisis — Trump's Burden-Sharing Gambit Strains Alliances
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final46%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
46%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 27.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 46.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.53) / market raw 0.29
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:trumpentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the United States announce a formal military response (defined as new military deployments, sanctions, or retaliatory operations specifically citing the Taiwan Strait drone incident) by 2026-03-20?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Clash — The Escalation Spiral Neither SiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal military response is defined as: (1) an official Pentagon or White House announcement of new military deployments to the Taiwan Strait region specifically in response to the drone incident, OR (2) the announcement of sanctions or other retaliatory measures explicitly linked to the incident, OR (3) a confirmed US military operation conducted in direct response. Routine diplomatic protests, UN statements, or previously scheduled military activities do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Clash — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ControlArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the United States announce a formal military response (defined as new military deployments, sanctions, or retaliatory operations specifically citing the Taiwan Strait drone incident) by 2026-03-20?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Clash — The Escalation Spiral Neither Si
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal military response is defined as: (1) an official Pentagon or White House announcement of new military deployments to the Taiwan Strait region specifically in response to the drone incident, OR (2) the announcement of sanctions or other retaliatory measures explicitly linked to the incident, OR (3) a confirmed US military operation conducted in direct response. Routine diplomatic protests, UN statements, or previously scheduled military activities do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Clash — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Control
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 870b4d694063 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran Sanctions Escalation — Oil Weaponization and the EscalaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil front-month futures contract (ICE) closes above $120.00 per barrel on any trading day between March 18, 2026 and April 17, 2026, as reported by ICE or Bloomberg terminal data. Intraday spikes above $120 that do not result in a closing price above $120 do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Sanctions Escalation — Oil Weaponization and the Escalation Spiral TrapArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final19%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran Sanctions Escalation — Oil Weaponization and the Escala
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil front-month futures contract (ICE) closes above $120.00 per barrel on any trading day between March 18, 2026 and April 17, 2026, as reported by ICE or Bloomberg terminal data. Intraday spikes above $120 that do not result in a closing price above $120 do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Sanctions Escalation — Oil Weaponization and the Escalation Spiral Trap
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final19%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
19%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the ROur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's weekly closing price (Sunday UTC close on major exchanges, using CoinMarketCap reference rate) must remain above $120,000 for every week from the date of this analysis through June 30, 2026, with zero weekly closes below $120,000. If any single weekly close is below $120,000, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Rules of Sound MoneyArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the R
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's weekly closing price (Sunday UTC close on major exchanges, using CoinMarketCap reference rate) must remain above $120,000 for every week from the date of this analysis through June 30, 2026, with zero weekly closes below $120,000. If any single weekly close is below $120,000, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Rules of Sound Money
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO officially confirm Russia's deployment of tactical nuclear warheads near the Donbas frontlines by 2026-03-25?Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit in Donbas — Breaking NATO'sOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 1% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO, as an institution (via official spokesperson, Secretary General statement, or communiqué), publicly confirms that Russia has deployed tactical nuclear warheads to forward positions near the Donbas frontlines. Statements by individual member state intelligence agencies do not count unless endorsed by NATO institutionally. Ambiguous language such as 'concerning nuclear posture changes' without explicit confirmation of warhead deployment does not meet the threshold. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit in Donbas — Breaking NATO's ConsensusArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO officially confirm Russia's deployment of tactical nuclear warheads near the Donbas frontlines by 2026-03-25?
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit in Donbas — Breaking NATO's
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 1% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO, as an institution (via official spokesperson, Secretary General statement, or communiqué), publicly confirms that Russia has deployed tactical nuclear warheads to forward positions near the Donbas frontlines. Statements by individual member state intelligence agencies do not count unless endorsed by NATO institutionally. Ambiguous language such as 'concerning nuclear posture changes' without explicit confirmation of warhead deployment does not meet the threshold. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit in Donbas — Breaking NATO's Consensus
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 99.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: d0c422089510 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Europe Defects from US Imperial OvOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Verifiable deployment of at least one warship from any EU member state or the United Kingdom to the Strait of Hormuz operational area, explicitly described by the deploying government as part of a US-led or US-requested coalition for Hormuz security. Independent European patrols or pre-existing anti-piracy missions do not count. Deployment must be confirmed by official government statement or credible defense ministry reporting. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisStrait of Hormuz Crisis — Europe Defects from US Imperial OverreachArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Europe Defects from US Imperial Ov
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verifiable deployment of at least one warship from any EU member state or the United Kingdom to the Strait of Hormuz operational area, explicitly described by the deploying government as part of a US-led or US-requested coalition for Hormuz security. Independent European patrols or pre-existing anti-piracy missions do not count. Deployment must be confirmed by official government statement or credible defense ministry reporting. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Europe Defects from US Imperial Overreach
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — Coordination Failure Exposes GOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A binding (not voluntary) international agreement on AI regulation — covering at minimum frontier model safety evaluation standards — must be signed by at least three of the five nations listed. 'Binding' means the agreement includes enforcement mechanisms or treaty-level commitments, not voluntary pledges or non-binding declarations of principles. Joint statements, memoranda of understanding, or industry-led commitments do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Regulation Summit — Coordination Failure Exposes Governance GapArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final96%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — Coordination Failure Exposes G
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A binding (not voluntary) international agreement on AI regulation — covering at minimum frontier model safety evaluation standards — must be signed by at least three of the five nations listed. 'Binding' means the agreement includes enforcement mechanisms or treaty-level commitments, not voluntary pledges or non-binding declarations of principles. Joint statements, memoranda of understanding, or industry-led commitments do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Regulation Summit — Coordination Failure Exposes Governance Gap
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final96%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
96%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 96.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china
Referenced knowledge
entity:china
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Defense and Alliance Cracks — US Pressure Exposes SecOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 27% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the Japanese government formally announces, as a cabinet decision or Minister of Defense order, an additional dispatch of Self-Defense Force vessels to the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf (increase in escort vessels, expansion of area of activity, or assignment of new missions). Simple extension of existing information gathering activities (without changes in scale or scope) is NO - YES/NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Defense and Alliance Cracks — US Pressure Exposes Security ContradictionsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Defense and Alliance Cracks — US Pressure Exposes Sec
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the Japanese government formally announces, as a cabinet decision or Minister of Defense order, an additional dispatch of Self-Defense Force vessels to the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf (increase in escort vessels, expansion of area of activity, or assignment of new missions). Simple extension of existing information gathering activities (without changes in scale or scope) is NO - YES/NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Defense and Alliance Cracks — US Pressure Exposes Security Contradictions
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Iran Military Op Concerns — Overextension Leads to WithdrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: As of September 30, 2026, the determination is "YES" if any of the following can be confirmed: (1) The U.S. government officially announces the cessation of combat missions against Iran, (2) Official reports that at least one carrier strike group deployed in the Middle East region has received withdrawal orders, (3) The conclusion of a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. If none of these are confirmed, the determination is "NO" - YES/NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Iran Military Op Concerns — Overextension Leads to Withdrawal & Mideast ShiftArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Iran Military Op Concerns — Overextension Leads to Withdr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: As of September 30, 2026, the determination is "YES" if any of the following can be confirmed: (1) The U.S. government officially announces the cessation of combat missions against Iran, (2) Official reports that at least one carrier strike group deployed in the Middle East region has received withdrawal orders, (3) The conclusion of a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran. If none of these are confirmed, the determination is "NO" - YES/NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Iran Military Op Concerns — Overextension Leads to Withdrawal & Mideast Shift
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Iran War Exit Pressure — Imperial Overreach Meets InternaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: A ceasefire is confirmed if either: (1) an official ceasefire announcement is made by both governments, or (2) both sides cease offensive military strikes for 30 consecutive days with acknowledgment by credible international observers (UN, IAEA, or equivalent). Informal understandings communicated through intermediaries count if independently verified by at least two major international news organizations. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Iran War Exit Pressure — Imperial Overreach Meets Internal DissentArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Iran War Exit Pressure — Imperial Overreach Meets Interna
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: A ceasefire is confirmed if either: (1) an official ceasefire announcement is made by both governments, or (2) both sides cease offensive military strikes for 30 consecutive days with acknowledgment by credible international observers (UN, IAEA, or equivalent). Informal understandings communicated through intermediaries count if independently verified by at least two major international news organizations. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Iran War Exit Pressure — Imperial Overreach Meets Internal Dissent
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/xi-jinping
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:xi-jinping
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Escalation — How US-China Military BrinkmansOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) vessels or aircraft participate in a named, bilateral or multilateral military exercise with US forces conducted in waters internationally recognized as the South China Sea (bounded roughly by coordinates 0°N-23°N, 99°E-121°E, excluding the East China Sea and Philippine Sea). Participation must be confirmed by official statements from Japan's Ministry of Defense or the US Department of Defense. Humanitarian assistance/disaster relief exercises and transit exercises do not qualify — the exercise must include combat-oriented components (anti-submarine warfare, surface warfare, air defense, or amphibious operations). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Escalation — How US-China Military Brinkmanship Is Pulling Japan Into the VortexArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final96%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Escalation — How US-China Military Brinkmans
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) vessels or aircraft participate in a named, bilateral or multilateral military exercise with US forces conducted in waters internationally recognized as the South China Sea (bounded roughly by coordinates 0°N-23°N, 99°E-121°E, excluding the East China Sea and Philippine Sea). Participation must be confirmed by official statements from Japan's Ministry of Defense or the US Department of Defense. Humanitarian assistance/disaster relief exercises and transit exercises do not qualify — the exercise must include combat-oriented components (anti-submarine warfare, surface warfare, air defense, or amphibious operations). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Escalation — How US-China Military Brinkmanship Is Pulling Japan Into the Vortex
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final96%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
96%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 11.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 96.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.79) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/japan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:japandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's Hormuz Strait Dilemma — Alliance Loyalty vs. ConstitOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: An official announcement by the Japanese government (Prime Minister, Chief Cabinet Secretary, or Minister of Defense) of a decision to dispatch at least one JMSDF destroyer or equivalent surface combatant to the Middle East, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, or Strait of Hormuz area, regardless of the mission framing (information-gathering, escort, or coalition participation). Renewal or continuation of the existing mission without expansion does not count — it must represent a new or expanded deployment. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's Hormuz Strait Dilemma — Alliance Loyalty vs. Constitutional RestraintArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final46%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's Hormuz Strait Dilemma — Alliance Loyalty vs. Constit
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: An official announcement by the Japanese government (Prime Minister, Chief Cabinet Secretary, or Minister of Defense) of a decision to dispatch at least one JMSDF destroyer or equivalent surface combatant to the Middle East, Gulf of Oman, Arabian Sea, or Strait of Hormuz area, regardless of the mission framing (information-gathering, escort, or coalition participation). Renewal or continuation of the existing mission without expansion does not count — it must represent a new or expanded deployment. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's Hormuz Strait Dilemma — Alliance Loyalty vs. Constitutional Restraint
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final46%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
46%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 46.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.29
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea's Missile Restart — Japan's Defense Identity atOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: The Japanese Ministry of Defense or Prime Minister's Office issues an official statement, press release, or Diet testimony confirming that counterstrike-capable long-range missile systems (range exceeding 1,000 km) have been delivered to and are operationally deployed with Self-Defense Forces units. Mere procurement contracts or testing do not qualify; the systems must be declared operational. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea's Missile Restart — Japan's Defense Identity at the Breaking PointArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final12%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea's Missile Restart — Japan's Defense Identity at
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: The Japanese Ministry of Defense or Prime Minister's Office issues an official statement, press release, or Diet testimony confirming that counterstrike-capable long-range missile systems (range exceeding 1,000 km) have been delivered to and are operationally deployed with Self-Defense Forces units. Mere procurement contracts or testing do not qualify; the systems must be declared operational. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea's Missile Restart — Japan's Defense Identity at the Breaking Point
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final12%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
12%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/north-korea
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:north-korea
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan-US Summit 2026: Alliance Renegotiation Under Tariff PrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: By April 18, 2026, has the U.S. government issued an executive order, administrative order, or Federal Register notice formally enacting additional tariffs of 25% or more on completed vehicles (cars and trucks) manufactured in Japan? Existing tariffs (2.5% car tariff, 25% pickup truck tariff) are not included. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan-US Summit 2026: Alliance Renegotiation Under Tariff PressureArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan-US Summit 2026: Alliance Renegotiation Under Tariff Pr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: By April 18, 2026, has the U.S. government issued an executive order, administrative order, or Federal Register notice formally enacting additional tariffs of 25% or more on completed vehicles (cars and trucks) manufactured in Japan? Existing tariffs (2.5% car tariff, 25% pickup truck tariff) are not included. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan-US Summit 2026: Alliance Renegotiation Under Tariff Pressure
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 6.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.88)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:japandynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: d9377475222e (medium)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Japan Summit March 19 — Takaichi's High-Stakes Tariff DipOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Japan is either formally exempted from US auto tariffs under Section 232, or a bilateral agreement explicitly defers/suspends auto tariff imposition with a stated timeline, as confirmed by official US or Japanese government statements by June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Japan Summit March 19 — Takaichi's High-Stakes Tariff Diplomacy TestArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final55%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Japan Summit March 19 — Takaichi's High-Stakes Tariff Dip
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Japan is either formally exempted from US auto tariffs under Section 232, or a bilateral agreement explicitly defers/suspends auto tariff imposition with a stated timeline, as confirmed by official US or Japanese government statements by June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Japan Summit March 19 — Takaichi's High-Stakes Tariff Diplomacy Test
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final55%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
55%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 55.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.20
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:japandynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran War & Oil Shock — The Contagion Cascade Threatening GloOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 87% confidence➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil monthly average closing price for June 2026 as reported by ICE Futures Europe. If the arithmetic mean of daily settlement prices for all trading days in June 2026 exceeds $100.00 USD per barrel, the answer is YES. If it is $100.00 or below, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran War & Oil Shock — The Contagion Cascade Threatening Global GrowthArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran War & Oil Shock — The Contagion Cascade Threatening Glo
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 87% confidence
➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil monthly average closing price for June 2026 as reported by ICE Futures Europe. If the arithmetic mean of daily settlement prices for all trading days in June 2026 exceeds $100.00 USD per barrel, the answer is YES. If it is $100.00 or below, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran War & Oil Shock — The Contagion Cascade Threatening Global Growth
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the United States announce a formal military response (defined as new military deployment, sanctions, or retaliatory action specifically citing the drone incident) within 48 hours of March 18, 2026?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Clash — The Escalation Spiral Neither SiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A 'YES' outcome requires an official US government announcement (from the White House, Pentagon, or State Department) of a specific military action, new troop deployment, sanctions package, or retaliatory strike explicitly referencing the Taiwan Strait drone incident, issued by 23:59 UTC on March 20, 2026. Routine statements of condemnation, demands for apology, or calls for UN sessions do not qualify. A carrier strike group redeployment order or named military operation would qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Clash — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can AffordArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the United States announce a formal military response (defined as new military deployment, sanctions, or retaliatory action specifically citing the drone incident) within 48 hours of March 18, 2026?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Clash — The Escalation Spiral Neither Si
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A 'YES' outcome requires an official US government announcement (from the White House, Pentagon, or State Department) of a specific military action, new troop deployment, sanctions package, or retaliatory strike explicitly referencing the Taiwan Strait drone incident, issued by 23:59 UTC on March 20, 2026. Routine statements of condemnation, demands for apology, or calls for UN sessions do not qualify. A carrier strike group redeployment order or named military operation would qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Clash — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 2be81ea4cb39 (medium)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan-US Defense Call: Hormuz Crisis Exposes Alliance StructOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: By June 30, 2026, has the Japanese government made a cabinet decision to expand the Maritime Self-Defense Force's mission in the Middle East beyond current information-gathering activities (adding escort missions, expanding the area of operations, or changing rules of engagement)? Based on official announcements from the Ministry of Defense or the Prime Minister's Office. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan-US Defense Call: Hormuz Crisis Exposes Alliance Structural ChallengesArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan-US Defense Call: Hormuz Crisis Exposes Alliance Struct
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: By June 30, 2026, has the Japanese government made a cabinet decision to expand the Maritime Self-Defense Force's mission in the Middle East beyond current information-gathering activities (adding escort missions, expanding the area of operations, or changing rules of engagement)? Based on official announcements from the Ministry of Defense or the Prime Minister's Office. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan-US Defense Call: Hormuz Crisis Exposes Alliance Structural Challenges
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Koizumi-Hegseth Hotline — The Hormuz Chokepoint Reshapes US-Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence⚡ ALPHA +37pt (vs market)➡ Verdict: Official Japanese government announcement of any of the following: (1) additional JMSDF vessels deployed to the Gulf of Aden / Arabian Sea / Persian Gulf region beyond the current information-gathering mission, (2) formal expansion of the mission mandate to include new operational tasks such as escort or interdiction, or (3) Japan joining a US-led or multinational maritime coalition specifically focused on Strait of Hormuz security. Any one of these three conditions being met counts as YES. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOKoizumi-Hegseth Hotline — The Hormuz Chokepoint Reshapes US-Japan AllianceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Koizumi-Hegseth Hotline — The Hormuz Chokepoint Reshapes US-
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence⚡ ALPHA +37pt (vs market)
➡ Verdict: Official Japanese government announcement of any of the following: (1) additional JMSDF vessels deployed to the Gulf of Aden / Arabian Sea / Persian Gulf region beyond the current information-gathering mission, (2) formal expansion of the mission mandate to include new operational tasks such as escort or interdiction, or (3) Japan joining a US-led or multinational maritime coalition specifically focused on Strait of Hormuz security. Any one of these three conditions being met counts as YES. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Koizumi-Hegseth Hotline — The Hormuz Chokepoint Reshapes US-Japan Alliance
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/ethereum
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:ethereum
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran Sanctions Escalation — Oil Weaponization and the SpiralOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil front-month futures contract (ICE) closing above $120.00 per barrel on any trading day between March 18 and April 17, 2026, based on official ICE settlement prices. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Sanctions Escalation — Oil Weaponization and the Spiral Toward $120Article-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final92%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran Sanctions Escalation — Oil Weaponization and the Spiral
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil front-month futures contract (ICE) closing above $120.00 per barrel on any trading day between March 18 and April 17, 2026, based on official ICE settlement prices. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Sanctions Escalation — Oil Weaponization and the Spiral Toward $120
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final92%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
92%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's Hormuz Dispatch: Alliance Costs and Diplomatic CrossOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the Ministry of Defense or the Prime Minister's Office officially announces or makes a cabinet decision to expand the Maritime Self-Defense Force's activities around the Strait of Hormuz from the existing structure (1 escort vessel and 2 P-3C patrol aircraft) (increasing the number of ships, explicitly expanding the scope of activities, or substantially changing the content of activities). Mere extension/continuation of existing activities is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's Hormuz Dispatch: Alliance Costs and Diplomatic CrossroadsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's Hormuz Dispatch: Alliance Costs and Diplomatic Cross
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the Ministry of Defense or the Prime Minister's Office officially announces or makes a cabinet decision to expand the Maritime Self-Defense Force's activities around the Strait of Hormuz from the existing structure (1 escort vessel and 2 P-3C patrol aircraft) (increasing the number of ships, explicitly expanding the scope of activities, or substantially changing the content of activities). Mere extension/continuation of existing activities is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's Hormuz Dispatch: Alliance Costs and Diplomatic Crossroads
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's Hormuz Strait Dilemma — Alliance Loyalty vs. ConstitOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: Official announcement by the Japanese government (Prime Minister, Defense Minister, or Chief Cabinet Secretary) of a new deployment order or expansion of the existing intelligence-gathering mission mandate for JMSDF vessels in the Hormuz Strait, Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Aden region. Must involve at least one additional vessel or expanded operational authority beyond the pre-March 2026 baseline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's Hormuz Strait Dilemma — Alliance Loyalty vs. Constitutional LimitsArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final46%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's Hormuz Strait Dilemma — Alliance Loyalty vs. Constit
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: Official announcement by the Japanese government (Prime Minister, Defense Minister, or Chief Cabinet Secretary) of a new deployment order or expansion of the existing intelligence-gathering mission mandate for JMSDF vessels in the Hormuz Strait, Persian Gulf, or Gulf of Aden region. Must involve at least one additional vessel or expanded operational authority beyond the pre-March 2026 baseline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's Hormuz Strait Dilemma — Alliance Loyalty vs. Constitutional Limits
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final46%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
46%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 46.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67) / market raw 0.29
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — Reshaping the Indo-Pacific OrderOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic crisis is defined as any of the following occurring by April 18, 2026: (1) Either the US or China recalls its ambassador from the other country; (2) Either side formally downgrades diplomatic representation; (3) All military-to-military communication channels are officially suspended by either government. The trigger must be explicitly linked to the March 2026 South China Sea incident by official government statements. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Standoff — Reshaping the Indo-Pacific OrderArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — Reshaping the Indo-Pacific Order
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic crisis is defined as any of the following occurring by April 18, 2026: (1) Either the US or China recalls its ambassador from the other country; (2) Either side formally downgrades diplomatic representation; (3) All military-to-military communication channels are officially suspended by either government. The trigger must be explicitly linked to the March 2026 South China Sea incident by official government statements. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Standoff — Reshaping the Indo-Pacific Order
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china
Referenced knowledge
entity:china
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO announce an increase in its military presence in Eastern Europe (additional troop deployments, new military exercises, or forward deployment of additional weapons systems) by April 1, 2026?Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation DeepensOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if NATO, any NATO command structure (SACEUR, SHAPE), or any individual NATO member state officially announces new troop deployments, additional military exercises, or forward deployment of weapons systems to Eastern European NATO member states (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, or other Eastern flank nations) between March 18 and April 1, 2026, in direct or stated response to Russia's nuclear drill announcement. Resolved NO if no such announcement is made by April 1, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation DeepensArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO announce an increase in its military presence in Eastern Europe (additional troop deployments, new military exercises, or forward deployment of additional weapons systems) by April 1, 2026?
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Deepens
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if NATO, any NATO command structure (SACEUR, SHAPE), or any individual NATO member state officially announces new troop deployments, additional military exercises, or forward deployment of weapons systems to Eastern European NATO member states (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, or other Eastern flank nations) between March 18 and April 1, 2026, in direct or stated response to Russia's nuclear drill announcement. Resolved NO if no such announcement is made by April 1, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Deepens
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 2b01faeef44a (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Transatlantic Fracture — Europe Defies Trump on IranOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verifiable through UK Ministry of Defence official announcements, parliamentary statements, or credible media reports confirming or denying the deployment of Royal Navy combat vessels to participate in US-led Hormuz operations. Routine transit or pre-existing deployments (such as the Bahrain-based mine countermeasures vessels) do not count — the criterion is new combat deployments specifically ordered to support US-led operations against Iran. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTransatlantic Fracture — Europe Defies Trump on IranArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final5%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Transatlantic Fracture — Europe Defies Trump on Iran
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verifiable through UK Ministry of Defence official announcements, parliamentary statements, or credible media reports confirming or denying the deployment of Royal Navy combat vessels to participate in US-led Hormuz operations. Routine transit or pre-existing deployments (such as the Bahrain-based mine countermeasures vessels) do not count — the criterion is new combat deployments specifically ordered to support US-led operations against Iran. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Transatlantic Fracture — Europe Defies Trump on Iran
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final5%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
5%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trumpentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's DeFi Crackdown — Regulation as ControlOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: The FSA or the Japanese Diet publishes a final, legally binding regulation, ordinance, or amendment to existing law that explicitly requires registered crypto exchanges to report user transaction data related to DeFi protocol interactions. Draft guidelines, consultation papers, or announced intentions without legal force do not qualify. The regulation must be published in an official government gazette or equivalent legal publication by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Cashius Howell be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOJapan's DeFi Crackdown — Regulation as ControlArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's DeFi Crackdown — Regulation as Control
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: The FSA or the Japanese Diet publishes a final, legally binding regulation, ordinance, or amendment to existing law that explicitly requires registered crypto exchanges to report user transaction data related to DeFi protocol interactions. Draft guidelines, consultation papers, or announced intentions without legal force do not qualify. The regulation must be published in an official government gazette or equivalent legal publication by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Cashius Howell be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Japan's DeFi Crackdown — Regulation as Control
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — Governance Gap ExposedOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A binding (not voluntary or aspirational) multilateral agreement on AI regulation that includes enforcement mechanisms (auditing, penalties, or compliance verification) must be formally signed by official representatives of the United States, the European Union, and China by December 31, 2026. Bilateral agreements, voluntary commitments, or non-binding declarations do not qualify. The agreement must cover frontier AI safety standards, not merely narrow applications like autonomous weapons or deepfakes. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Regulation Summit — Governance Gap ExposedArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final96%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — Governance Gap Exposed
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A binding (not voluntary or aspirational) multilateral agreement on AI regulation that includes enforcement mechanisms (auditing, penalties, or compliance verification) must be formally signed by official representatives of the United States, the European Union, and China by December 31, 2026. Bilateral agreements, voluntary commitments, or non-binding declarations do not qualify. The agreement must cover frontier AI safety standards, not merely narrow applications like autonomous weapons or deepfakes. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Regulation Summit — Governance Gap Exposed
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final96%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
96%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 96.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Grok-3's Creative Ambition — AI's Assault on the Last HumanOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: By December 31, 2027, Grok-3 (or its direct successor within the Grok model family) must have captured at least 20% of the consumer creative AI tools market as measured by monthly active users or revenue share in credible third-party market research reports (e.g., Statista, Grand View Research, IDC). If no such report exists, assessment will be based on publicly reported user metrics from xAI compared to competitors (OpenAI, Google, Midjourney, Adobe). A 'YES' requires clear evidence of market redefinition, not merely participation. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGrok-3's Creative Ambition — AI's Assault on the Last Human StrongholdArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final29%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Grok-3's Creative Ambition — AI's Assault on the Last Human
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: By December 31, 2027, Grok-3 (or its direct successor within the Grok model family) must have captured at least 20% of the consumer creative AI tools market as measured by monthly active users or revenue share in credible third-party market research reports (e.g., Statista, Grand View Research, IDC). If no such report exists, assessment will be based on publicly reported user metrics from xAI compared to competitors (OpenAI, Google, Midjourney, Adobe). A 'YES' requires clear evidence of market redefinition, not merely participation. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Grok-3's Creative Ambition — AI's Assault on the Last Human Stronghold
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final29%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
29%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Strait Naval Deployment — Energy Security StructuralOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the Japanese government (Cabinet decision or National Security Council decision) formally decides to dispatch a Maritime Self-Defense Force unit to the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz on a scale exceeding the 2019 Middle East dispatch (1 escort vessel and 2 P-3C aircraft). Continuation of activities within the existing framework or small-scale adjustments is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Strait Naval Deployment — Energy Security Structural Change Exposing Alliance CracksArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Strait Naval Deployment — Energy Security Structural
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the Japanese government (Cabinet decision or National Security Council decision) formally decides to dispatch a Maritime Self-Defense Force unit to the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz on a scale exceeding the 2019 Middle East dispatch (1 escort vessel and 2 P-3C aircraft). Continuation of activities within the existing framework or small-scale adjustments is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Strait Naval Deployment — Energy Security Structural Change Exposing Alliance Cracks
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's Middle East Gambit — Energy Dependence Drives a NewOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A publicly released document (joint statement, memorandum of understanding, framework agreement, or treaty) co-signed or explicitly endorsed by both Iran and Saudi Arabia that credits Japan as mediator or host of the negotiations. Unofficial back-channel communications, unattributed diplomatic contacts, or unilateral Japanese claims of mediation do not qualify. The document must be verifiable through official government sources of at least two of the three parties (Japan, Iran, Saudi Arabia). → ❌ Missed❓ Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 14%14% of prediction market capital bets on NOJapan's Middle East Gambit — Energy Dependence Drives a New Diplomatic RoleArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final14%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's Middle East Gambit — Energy Dependence Drives a New
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A publicly released document (joint statement, memorandum of understanding, framework agreement, or treaty) co-signed or explicitly endorsed by both Iran and Saudi Arabia that credits Japan as mediator or host of the negotiations. Unofficial back-channel communications, unattributed diplomatic contacts, or unilateral Japanese claims of mediation do not qualify. The document must be verifiable through official government sources of at least two of the three parties (Japan, Iran, Saudi Arabia). → ❌ Missed
❓ Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 14%
14% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Japan's Middle East Gambit — Energy Dependence Drives a New Diplomatic Role
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final14%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
14%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump's Hormuz Strait Ultimatum — Alliance Strain Meets EnerOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 73% confidence➡ Verdict: Japan's Ministry of Defense or Prime Minister's Office officially announces deployment of additional JMSDF vessels to the Gulf region with expanded mandate beyond the current 'information gathering' mission established in 2020. The announcement must include at least one additional warship or a formal change in rules of engagement/mission scope. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump's Hormuz Strait Ultimatum — Alliance Strain Meets Energy ChokepointArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final46%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump's Hormuz Strait Ultimatum — Alliance Strain Meets Ener
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 73% confidence
➡ Verdict: Japan's Ministry of Defense or Prime Minister's Office officially announces deployment of additional JMSDF vessels to the Gulf region with expanded mandate beyond the current 'information gathering' mission established in 2020. The announcement must include at least one additional warship or a formal change in rules of engagement/mission scope. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump's Hormuz Strait Ultimatum — Alliance Strain Meets Energy Chokepoint
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final46%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
46%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 27.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 46.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.53) / market raw 0.29
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran War & Energy Shock — The Contagion Cascade Toward GlobaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil front-month futures contract closing price exceeds $120.00 USD per barrel on any single trading day on the ICE Futures Europe exchange between 2026-03-18 and 2026-06-30. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran War & Energy Shock — The Contagion Cascade Toward Global RecessionArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran War & Energy Shock — The Contagion Cascade Toward Globa
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil front-month futures contract closing price exceeds $120.00 USD per barrel on any single trading day on the ICE Futures Europe exchange between 2026-03-18 and 2026-06-30. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran War & Energy Shock — The Contagion Cascade Toward Global Recession
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea New Missile Launch — Spiral of Conflict FundamenOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the Japanese government (Cabinet decision, Minister of Defense instruction, or Prime Minister instruction) officially announces by December 31, 2026, in response to the North Korean missile threat, the accelerated implementation of existing defense force development plans, the decision to introduce new missile defense systems, or the accelerated deployment of counterstrike capability-related equipment, as confirmed by the Official Gazette, official announcements from the Ministry of Defense, or Prime Minister's press conference. Only the normal execution of existing plans without special acceleration/additional measures is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea New Missile Launch — Spiral of Conflict Fundamentally Changes Japan's DefenseTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea New Missile Launch — Spiral of Conflict Fundamen
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the Japanese government (Cabinet decision, Minister of Defense instruction, or Prime Minister instruction) officially announces by December 31, 2026, in response to the North Korean missile threat, the accelerated implementation of existing defense force development plans, the decision to introduce new missile defense systems, or the accelerated deployment of counterstrike capability-related equipment, as confirmed by the Official Gazette, official announcements from the Ministry of Defense, or Prime Minister's press conference. Only the normal execution of existing plans without special acceleration/additional measures is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea New Missile Launch — Spiral of Conflict Fundamentally Changes Japan's Defense
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 91.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/north-korea
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:north-korea
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 2c02827de9e2 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan-U.S. Defense Phone Call — Hormuz Crisis Reveals StructOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: YES: Ministry of Defense or Cabinet formally announces (Cabinet decision or ministerial order) augmenting the MSDF dispatch in the Middle East (additional ships/aircraft) or changing its mission (expanding from information gathering to escort/minesweeping, etc.). NO: Otherwise. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan-U.S. Defense Phone Call — Hormuz Crisis Reveals Structural Alliance ChallengesTracker-only判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan-U.S. Defense Phone Call — Hormuz Crisis Reveals Struct
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES: Ministry of Defense or Cabinet formally announces (Cabinet decision or ministerial order) augmenting the MSDF dispatch in the Middle East (additional ships/aircraft) or changing its mission (expanding from information gathering to escort/minesweeping, etc.). NO: Otherwise. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan-U.S. Defense Phone Call — Hormuz Crisis Reveals Structural Alliance Challenges
Tracker-only
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-China Spratly Standoff — Escalation Spiral Meets ImperialOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic crisis is defined as ANY ONE of the following occurring by April 18, 2026: (1) either the US or China recalls its ambassador from the other country; (2) the US imposes new sanctions specifically citing the South China Sea incident, or China imposes retaliatory sanctions; (3) China declares an Air Defense Identification Zone over any portion of the South China Sea. If none of these three conditions is met by the deadline, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-China Spratly Standoff — Escalation Spiral Meets Imperial OverreachArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌manifold final32%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-China Spratly Standoff — Escalation Spiral Meets Imperial
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic crisis is defined as ANY ONE of the following occurring by April 18, 2026: (1) either the US or China recalls its ambassador from the other country; (2) the US imposes new sanctions specifically citing the South China Sea incident, or China imposes retaliatory sanctions; (3) China declares an Air Defense Identification Zone over any portion of the South China Sea. If none of these three conditions is met by the deadline, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-China Spratly Standoff — Escalation Spiral Meets Imperial Overreach
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
manifold final32%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
32%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO announce an increase in military troop deployments to Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltic states, or Romania) by 2026-04-01 in response to Russia's nuclear-capable missile drills?Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation SpiralOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution requires at least one official NATO or member state announcement of additional troop deployments, equipment transfers, or accelerated exercise schedules specifically in Eastern European member states (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, or Hungary) that is publicly linked to or temporally follows Russia's announced nuclear-capable missile drills near the Ukraine border. The announcement must be made by a government or NATO official and reported by at least two major international news outlets by April 1, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral DeepensArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO announce an increase in military troop deployments to Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltic states, or Romania) by 2026-04-01 in response to Russia's nuclear-capable missile drills?
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution requires at least one official NATO or member state announcement of additional troop deployments, equipment transfers, or accelerated exercise schedules specifically in Eastern European member states (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, or Hungary) that is publicly linked to or temporally follows Russia's announced nuclear-capable missile drills near the Ukraine border. The announcement must be made by a government or NATO official and reported by at least two major international news outlets by April 1, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral Deepens
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: e2a5597efa15 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Atlantic Alliance Fractures Over IOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified by official UK Ministry of Defence announcements, parliamentary statements, or credible media reporting confirming or denying the deployment of Royal Navy vessels to participate in active US-led combat or enforcement operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Routine freedom-of-navigation transits or pre-existing deployments that predate the crisis do not count; the deployment must be explicitly linked to the current US-Iran Hormuz operation. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisStrait of Hormuz Crisis — Atlantic Alliance Fractures Over Iran WarArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Atlantic Alliance Fractures Over I
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified by official UK Ministry of Defence announcements, parliamentary statements, or credible media reporting confirming or denying the deployment of Royal Navy vessels to participate in active US-led combat or enforcement operations in the Strait of Hormuz. Routine freedom-of-navigation transits or pre-existing deployments that predate the crisis do not count; the deployment must be explicitly linked to the current US-Iran Hormuz operation. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Strait of Hormuz Crisis — Atlantic Alliance Fractures Over Iran War
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — Coordination Failure Exposes tOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A binding multilateral agreement on AI safety regulation must be formally signed (not merely announced or under negotiation) by representatives of the United States, the European Union, and China before December 31, 2026. The agreement must include enforceable provisions for civilian AI safety standards applicable to frontier models. Voluntary commitments, non-binding declarations, or bilateral agreements between subsets of these parties do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Regulation Summit — Coordination Failure Exposes the Governance VacuumArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final96%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — Coordination Failure Exposes t
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A binding multilateral agreement on AI safety regulation must be formally signed (not merely announced or under negotiation) by representatives of the United States, the European Union, and China before December 31, 2026. The agreement must include enforceable provisions for civilian AI safety standards applicable to frontier models. Voluntary commitments, non-binding declarations, or bilateral agreements between subsets of these parties do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Regulation Summit — Coordination Failure Exposes the Governance Vacuum
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final96%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
96%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 96.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Grok-3's Creative Ambition — AI's Winner-Takes-All Bid for tOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: xAI or credible third-party analytics (SimilarWeb, Sensor Tower, or equivalent) report that Grok-3's art and music generation features are used by 100 million or more unique users per month as of any month in 2027. 'Creative features' is defined as image generation, music composition, or artistic content creation — not general chatbot usage. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGrok-3's Creative Ambition — AI's Winner-Takes-All Bid for the ArtsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Grok-3's Creative Ambition — AI's Winner-Takes-All Bid for t
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: xAI or credible third-party analytics (SimilarWeb, Sensor Tower, or equivalent) report that Grok-3's art and music generation features are used by 100 million or more unique users per month as of any month in 2027. 'Creative features' is defined as image generation, music composition, or artistic content creation — not general chatbot usage. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Grok-3's Creative Ambition — AI's Winner-Takes-All Bid for the Arts
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Strait Ship Dispatch — Alliance Cracks Expose EnergyOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: YES: Japanese government makes a Cabinet decision by September 30, 2026, to expand MSDF activities in the Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf region from information gathering under the guise of "research" to substantive security activities like patrol/escort/convoy escort. NO: Otherwise, based on official announcements from the Ministry of Defense or Cabinet Secretariat. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Strait Ship Dispatch — Alliance Cracks Expose Energy Security VulnerabilityArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Strait Ship Dispatch — Alliance Cracks Expose Energy
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES: Japanese government makes a Cabinet decision by September 30, 2026, to expand MSDF activities in the Strait of Hormuz or Persian Gulf region from information gathering under the guise of "research" to substantive security activities like patrol/escort/convoy escort. NO: Otherwise, based on official announcements from the Ministry of Defense or Cabinet Secretariat. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Strait Ship Dispatch — Alliance Cracks Expose Energy Security Vulnerability
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Strait Burden-Sharing — Trump's Naval Ultimatum StraiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Japan's Ministry of Defense or Prime Minister's Office officially announces the deployment of one or more additional MSDF vessels (destroyer, frigate, or support ship) to the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea region beyond the existing information-gathering mission, OR expands the mandate of the existing mission to include escort or patrol operations. Confirmation via official Japanese government statement or credible wire service (Reuters, AP, Kyodo) reporting. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Strait Burden-Sharing — Trump's Naval Ultimatum Strains Allied OrderArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final46%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Strait Burden-Sharing — Trump's Naval Ultimatum Strai
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Japan's Ministry of Defense or Prime Minister's Office officially announces the deployment of one or more additional MSDF vessels (destroyer, frigate, or support ship) to the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea region beyond the existing information-gathering mission, OR expands the mandate of the existing mission to include escort or patrol operations. Confirmation via official Japanese government statement or credible wire service (Reuters, AP, Kyodo) reporting. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Strait Burden-Sharing — Trump's Naval Ultimatum Strains Allied Order
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final46%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
46%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 46.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.29
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea Missile Launch — Spiral Changes Japan's DefenseOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 99% confidence➡ Verdict: YES: Japanese government, on or after January 1, 2026, makes a Cabinet decision or official announcement regarding one or more of the following as a response to North Korea's missile threat: (1) allocation of a supplementary budget related to missile defense, (2) decision to introduce new interceptor missiles or radar systems, (3) measures to improve the capabilities of existing BMD systems. NO: Continuation of existing plans included in the regular annual budget are excluded; only additional measures taken in response to this missile launch are covered. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea Missile Launch — Spiral Changes Japan's Defense Posture RadicallyTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea Missile Launch — Spiral Changes Japan's Defense
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 99% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES: Japanese government, on or after January 1, 2026, makes a Cabinet decision or official announcement regarding one or more of the following as a response to North Korea's missile threat: (1) allocation of a supplementary budget related to missile defense, (2) decision to introduce new interceptor missiles or radar systems, (3) measures to improve the capabilities of existing BMD systems. NO: Continuation of existing plans included in the regular annual budget are excluded; only additional measures taken in response to this missile launch are covered. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea Missile Launch — Spiral Changes Japan's Defense Posture Radically
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 99.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/north-korea
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:north-korea
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: e459bc30bac7 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO issue a formal public statement condemning Russia's nuclear drills by 2026-03-21?Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral TesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 99% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal statement, communiqué, or press release issued by NATO (via the Secretary General, the North Atlantic Council, or NATO HQ official channels) that explicitly references Russia's nuclear-capable missile drills near Ukraine's border and uses language of condemnation (e.g., 'condemn,' 'deplore,' 'irresponsible,' 'provocative,' or equivalent). General statements about Russian aggression that do not specifically reference the drills do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red LinesArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO issue a formal public statement condemning Russia's nuclear drills by 2026-03-21?
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral Tes
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 99% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal statement, communiqué, or press release issued by NATO (via the Secretary General, the North Atlantic Council, or NATO HQ official channels) that explicitly references Russia's nuclear-capable missile drills near Ukraine's border and uses language of condemnation (e.g., 'condemn,' 'deplore,' 'irresponsible,' 'provocative,' or equivalent). General statements about Russian aggression that do not specifically reference the drills do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red Lines
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 1.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.98)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 3f15d493cceb (medium)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China officially announce a military exercise or military response specifically targeting Taiwan's planned exercises by 2026-03-28?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Surge — Escalation Spiral Tests the LimiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official announcement from the PLA, China's Ministry of National Defense, or the PLA Eastern Theater Command explicitly stating that military exercises, combat readiness patrols, or other named military operations are being conducted in response to Taiwan's March 2026 exercises. Routine drone operations or state media commentary alone do not qualify — there must be a formal institutional announcement of a named or designated military response. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Surge — Escalation Spiral Tests the Limits of Gray-Zone WarfareArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China officially announce a military exercise or military response specifically targeting Taiwan's planned exercises by 2026-03-28?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Surge — Escalation Spiral Tests the Limi
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official announcement from the PLA, China's Ministry of National Defense, or the PLA Eastern Theater Command explicitly stating that military exercises, combat readiness patrols, or other named military operations are being conducted in response to Taiwan's March 2026 exercises. Routine drone operations or state media commentary alone do not qualify — there must be a formal institutional announcement of a named or designated military response. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Surge — Escalation Spiral Tests the Limits of Gray-Zone Warfare
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 846ca976e7a0 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Stablecoin Law — Regulatory Capture Reshapes the $200B DiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: On September 30, 2026, compare the total market capitalization of USDC and USDT as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap at 23:59 UTC. If USDC market cap exceeds USDT market cap at that timestamp, the answer is YES. Otherwise, NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOUS Stablecoin Law — Regulatory Capture Reshapes the $200B Digital Dollar RaceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Stablecoin Law — Regulatory Capture Reshapes the $200B Di
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: On September 30, 2026, compare the total market capitalization of USDC and USDT as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap at 23:59 UTC. If USDC market cap exceeds USDT market cap at that timestamp, the answer is YES. Otherwise, NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
US Stablecoin Law — Regulatory Capture Reshapes the $200B Digital Dollar Race
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will either the United States or China file a formal diplomatic protest (demarche) regarding this naval near-collision by 2026-03-20?Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral ThatOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic protest or demarche is filed by either the US State Department (or Pentagon) or China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (or Ministry of National Defense) regarding the March 18, 2026 naval near-collision incident, as confirmed by official government statements, press briefings, or credible international news sources by March 20, 2026 23:59 UTC. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape Indo-Pacific OrderArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will either the United States or China file a formal diplomatic protest (demarche) regarding this naval near-collision by 2026-03-20?
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral That
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic protest or demarche is filed by either the US State Department (or Pentagon) or China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (or Ministry of National Defense) regarding the March 18, 2026 naval near-collision incident, as confirmed by official government statements, press briefings, or credible international news sources by March 20, 2026 23:59 UTC. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape Indo-Pacific Order
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 93ed257315bb
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping CrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: ETH/USD spot price on Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken exceeds $8,000.00 at any point between 2026-03-19 and 2026-12-31, as recorded by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical data. A single 1-minute candle closing above $8,000 on any of these exchanges constitutes a YES outcome. → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOEthereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping Crypto Capital FlowsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping Cr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: ETH/USD spot price on Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken exceeds $8,000.00 at any point between 2026-03-19 and 2026-12-31, as recorded by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical data. A single 1-minute candle closing above $8,000 on any of these exchanges constitutes a YES outcome. → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping Crypto Capital Flows
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Koichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Renegotiation and Iran Test JOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: YES: The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) or Presidential Executive Order formally imposes additional tariffs of 25% or more on Japanese automobiles (complete vehicles). NO: If tariffs are only considered/announced but not implemented, or if the tariff rate is less than 25%. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisKoichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Renegotiation and Iran Test Japan's DiplomacyArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Koichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Renegotiation and Iran Test J
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES: The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) or Presidential Executive Order formally imposes additional tariffs of 25% or more on Japanese automobiles (complete vehicles). NO: If tariffs are only considered/announced but not implemented, or if the tariff rate is less than 25%. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Koichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Renegotiation and Iran Test Japan's Diplomacy
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan/trump / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japanentity:trumpdynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Bid forOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Enterprise AI API market share measured by revenue, as reported by credible industry analysts (Gartner, IDC, or Forrester) or inferred from publicly available revenue data from OpenAI, Google Cloud AI, AWS AI services, and Anthropic. A share exceeding 40% of total enterprise AI API revenue constitutes a YES outcome. → ❌ Missed❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Bid for Enterprise AIArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Bid for
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Enterprise AI API market share measured by revenue, as reported by credible industry analysts (Gartner, IDC, or Forrester) or inferred from publicly available revenue data from OpenAI, Google Cloud AI, AWS AI services, and Anthropic. A share exceeding 40% of total enterprise AI API revenue constitutes a YES outcome. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Bid for Enterprise AI
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Japan and the United States issue a joint statement following the March 19, 2026 Takaichi-Trump summit that includes a specific commitment to coordinate on Iran policy (beyond generic 'regional stability' language)?Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit — Japan's Alliance Recalibration UnderOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A joint statement, joint press conference transcript, or official communiqué from the March 19 summit must contain specific, actionable language on Iran coordination — such as sanctions enforcement commitments, military cooperation references, or diplomatic initiative announcements. Generic phrases like 'shared concern about regional stability' or 'continue to monitor the situation' do NOT qualify as specific commitments. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTakaichi-Trump Summit — Japan's Alliance Recalibration Under Iran PressureArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Japan and the United States issue a joint statement following the March 19, 2026 Takaichi-Trump summit that includes a specific commitment to coordinate on Iran policy (beyond generic 'regional stability' language)?
Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit — Japan's Alliance Recalibration Under
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A joint statement, joint press conference transcript, or official communiqué from the March 19 summit must contain specific, actionable language on Iran coordination — such as sanctions enforcement commitments, military cooperation references, or diplomatic initiative announcements. Generic phrases like 'shared concern about regional stability' or 'continue to monitor the situation' do NOT qualify as specific commitments. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Takaichi-Trump Summit — Japan's Alliance Recalibration Under Iran Pressure
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japanentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: f272b102acde (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: xAI's GalacticMind — The AI Race Moves to Orbit and BeyondOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if, by December 31, 2028, any official announcement, contract, or mission architecture document confirms that GalacticMind (or its direct successor under xAI) has been selected as a mission-planning AI component for a crewed or robotic Mars mission with a defined launch date. The mission must be publicly acknowledged by NASA, SpaceX, or an equivalent space agency. Internal SpaceX use alone does not qualify — it must be a formally announced Mars-specific mission. NO if no such announcement has been made by the deadline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisxAI's GalacticMind — The AI Race Moves to Orbit and BeyondArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final29%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: xAI's GalacticMind — The AI Race Moves to Orbit and Beyond
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if, by December 31, 2028, any official announcement, contract, or mission architecture document confirms that GalacticMind (or its direct successor under xAI) has been selected as a mission-planning AI component for a crewed or robotic Mars mission with a defined launch date. The mission must be publicly acknowledged by NASA, SpaceX, or an equivalent space agency. Internal SpaceX use alone does not qualify — it must be a formally announced Mars-specific mission. NO if no such announcement has been made by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
xAI's GalacticMind — The AI Race Moves to Orbit and Beyond
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final29%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
29%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea's Missile Resumption — The Escalation Spiral JapOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reports from the Japanese Ministry of Defense or credible international media confirming that Japan's JSDF fired an interceptor missile (SM-3, PAC-3, or equivalent) at a North Korean ballistic missile, regardless of whether the interception was successful. An order to intercept that was subsequently stood down does not count — an actual interceptor must have been launched. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea's Missile Resumption — The Escalation Spiral Japan Cannot EscapeArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final12%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea's Missile Resumption — The Escalation Spiral Jap
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reports from the Japanese Ministry of Defense or credible international media confirming that Japan's JSDF fired an interceptor missile (SM-3, PAC-3, or equivalent) at a North Korean ballistic missile, regardless of whether the interception was successful. An order to intercept that was subsequently stood down does not count — an actual interceptor must have been launched. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea's Missile Resumption — The Escalation Spiral Japan Cannot Escape
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final12%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
12%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/north-korea / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:north-koreadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia Exploits Western Discord — Kremlin's Wedge Strategy oOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: At least one EU/European NATO member state (excluding UK) officially deploys one or more naval vessels to participate in U.S.-led or U.S.-requested Hormuz Strait patrol or escort operations, as confirmed by official government or NATO announcements. → ❌ Missed❓ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 30%30% of prediction market capital bets on NORussia Exploits Western Discord — Kremlin's Wedge Strategy on Hormuz and UkraineArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final30%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia Exploits Western Discord — Kremlin's Wedge Strategy o
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least one EU/European NATO member state (excluding UK) officially deploys one or more naval vessels to participate in U.S.-led or U.S.-requested Hormuz Strait patrol or escort operations, as confirmed by official government or NATO announcements. → ❌ Missed
❓ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 30%
30% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Russia Exploits Western Discord — Kremlin's Wedge Strategy on Hormuz and Ukraine
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final30%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
30%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump's Unilateral Iran Attack Declaration — 'Imperial OverrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: YES: A resolution based on the War Powers Resolution (seeking to limit or terminate the president's authority for military action) is formally voted on in the full session of the US Senate or House of Representatives in connection with military operations against Iran. NO: Deliberation at the committee stage is not sufficient. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump's Unilateral Iran Attack Declaration — 'Imperial Overreach' Shakes AlliancesArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump's Unilateral Iran Attack Declaration — 'Imperial Overr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES: A resolution based on the War Powers Resolution (seeking to limit or terminate the president's authority for military action) is formally voted on in the full session of the US Senate or House of Representatives in connection with military operations against Iran. NO: Deliberation at the committee stage is not sufficient. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump's Unilateral Iran Attack Declaration — 'Imperial Overreach' Shakes Alliances
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed armed engagement between US military forces and Chinese military forces (PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, or Chinese Coast Guard operating under PLA command) in the South China Sea that results in at least one confirmed death or serious injury on either side, as reported by official government statements or credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP). Coast guard-on-coast guard incidents involving only the Philippines or other ASEAN states do not qualify. The incident must involve direct US-China force-on-force engagement. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed armed engagement between US military forces and Chinese military forces (PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, or Chinese Coast Guard operating under PLA command) in the South China Sea that results in at least one confirmed death or serious injury on either side, as reported by official government statements or credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP). Coast guard-on-coast guard incidents involving only the Philippines or other ASEAN states do not qualify. The incident must involve direct US-China force-on-force engagement. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump Rejects Allied Support on Iran — Imperial Overreach MeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Publicly reported US military strikes on targets within Iranian sovereign territory (not proxy targets in Iraq/Syria/Yemen) occurring on or within 7 days before June 18, 2026, as confirmed by US Department of Defense statements or two or more major wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump Rejects Allied Support on Iran — Imperial Overreach Meets Alliance FractureArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final5%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump Rejects Allied Support on Iran — Imperial Overreach Me
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Publicly reported US military strikes on targets within Iranian sovereign territory (not proxy targets in Iraq/Syria/Yemen) occurring on or within 7 days before June 18, 2026, as confirmed by US Department of Defense statements or two or more major wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump Rejects Allied Support on Iran — Imperial Overreach Meets Alliance Fracture
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final5%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
5%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea's War Economy — How Pyongyang's Russia PipelineOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmation by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) or US/South Korean/Japanese government agencies of a seismic event consistent with a North Korean nuclear test at the Punggye-ri test site or elsewhere in North Korea, occurring between 2026-03-19 and 2026-12-31. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea's War Economy — How Pyongyang's Russia Pipeline Nullifies SanctionsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final12%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea's War Economy — How Pyongyang's Russia Pipeline
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmation by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) or US/South Korean/Japanese government agencies of a seismic event consistent with a North Korean nuclear test at the Punggye-ri test site or elsewhere in North Korea, occurring between 2026-03-19 and 2026-12-31. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea's War Economy — How Pyongyang's Russia Pipeline Nullifies Sanctions
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final12%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
12%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/north-korea
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:north-korea
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump-Putin Iran Call — Great Power Bargaining Over Middle EOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A publicly released written statement co-signed or jointly endorsed by both the U.S. and Russian governments specifically addressing Iran's nuclear program or Middle East security framework. Separate unilateral statements or press readouts do not qualify — the document must be explicitly joint or co-authored. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump-Putin Iran Call — Great Power Bargaining Over Middle East OrderArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final17%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump-Putin Iran Call — Great Power Bargaining Over Middle E
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A publicly released written statement co-signed or jointly endorsed by both the U.S. and Russian governments specifically addressing Iran's nuclear program or Middle East security framework. Separate unilateral statements or press readouts do not qualify — the document must be explicitly joint or co-authored. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump-Putin Iran Call — Great Power Bargaining Over Middle East Order
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final17%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
17%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Crisis — Japan's Military Pivot Reshapes the IOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Verifiable through official Japanese Ministry of Defense announcements, Diet proceedings, or credible media reports confirming that SDF assets have been deployed under orders explicitly linked to a Taiwan contingency (not routine training or existing Nansei Islands defense). Deployment must be characterized by the Japanese government or credible defense analysts as Taiwan-contingency-specific, not merely enhanced regional readiness. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Crisis — Japan's Military Pivot Reshapes the Indo-Pacific OrderArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final26%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Crisis — Japan's Military Pivot Reshapes the I
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verifiable through official Japanese Ministry of Defense announcements, Diet proceedings, or credible media reports confirming that SDF assets have been deployed under orders explicitly linked to a Taiwan contingency (not routine training or existing Nansei Islands defense). Deployment must be characterized by the Japanese government or credible defense analysts as Taiwan-contingency-specific, not merely enhanced regional readiness. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Crisis — Japan's Military Pivot Reshapes the Indo-Pacific Order
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final26%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
26%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=taiwan/japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:taiwanentity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China announce a formal military response (defined as officially declared exercises, combat readiness patrols, or military operations) specifically citing Taiwan's late-March 2026 military exercise as justification, by April 5, 2026?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Surge — Escalation Spiral Tests the MediOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official statement from China's Ministry of National Defense, PLA Eastern Theater Command, or Xinhua (state news agency) explicitly announcing military exercises, combat readiness patrols, or other named military operations that specifically reference Taiwan's military exercise as a trigger or justification. Routine drone sorties without a formal announcement naming Taiwan's exercise do not qualify. The announcement must occur between March 19, 2026 and April 5, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Surge — Escalation Spiral Tests the Median LineArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China announce a formal military response (defined as officially declared exercises, combat readiness patrols, or military operations) specifically citing Taiwan's late-March 2026 military exercise as justification, by April 5, 2026?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Surge — Escalation Spiral Tests the Medi
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official statement from China's Ministry of National Defense, PLA Eastern Theater Command, or Xinhua (state news agency) explicitly announcing military exercises, combat readiness patrols, or other named military operations that specifically reference Taiwan's military exercise as a trigger or justification. Routine drone sorties without a formal announcement naming Taiwan's exercise do not qualify. The announcement must occur between March 19, 2026 and April 5, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Surge — Escalation Spiral Tests the Median Line
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: e035ca6699e0 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit — A Structural Shift at the IntersectiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: By June 30, 2026, will the US government (White House, USTR, or Commerce Department) officially announce a formal agreement or exemption regarding automobile tariffs with Japan? Ministerial-level statements of "continued consultations" do not count as an agreement. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTakaichi-Trump Summit — A Structural Shift at the Intersection of US-Japan Alliance & IranArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit — A Structural Shift at the Intersecti
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: By June 30, 2026, will the US government (White House, USTR, or Commerce Department) officially announce a formal agreement or exemption regarding automobile tariffs with Japan? Ministerial-level statements of "continued consultations" do not count as an agreement. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Takaichi-Trump Summit — A Structural Shift at the Intersection of US-Japan Alliance & Iran
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan/trump / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japanentity:trumpdynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit — Japan's Alliance Recalibration UnderOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: The U.S. government officially implements (not merely threatens or announces) tariffs of 25% or higher specifically on Japanese automobile imports under Section 232, executive order, or equivalent trade authority, with duties actively collected at ports of entry, by September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTakaichi-Trump Summit — Japan's Alliance Recalibration Under Dual PressureArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final11%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit — Japan's Alliance Recalibration Under
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: The U.S. government officially implements (not merely threatens or announces) tariffs of 25% or higher specifically on Japanese automobile imports under Section 232, executive order, or equivalent trade authority, with duties actively collected at ports of entry, by September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Takaichi-Trump Summit — Japan's Alliance Recalibration Under Dual Pressure
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final11%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
11%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/trump / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:trumpdynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea Missile Resumption — The Escalation Spiral JapanOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified by official Japanese Ministry of Defense statement or credible international media reporting that Japan launched an SM-3, SM-6, or PAC-3 interceptor against a North Korean ballistic missile. A test interception against a non-DPRK target does not count. The interception attempt must be against an actual North Korean launch, regardless of whether the intercept succeeds or fails. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea Missile Resumption — The Escalation Spiral Japan Cannot EscapeArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final12%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea Missile Resumption — The Escalation Spiral Japan
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified by official Japanese Ministry of Defense statement or credible international media reporting that Japan launched an SM-3, SM-6, or PAC-3 interceptor against a North Korean ballistic missile. A test interception against a non-DPRK target does not count. The interception attempt must be against an actual North Korean launch, regardless of whether the intercept succeeds or fails. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea Missile Resumption — The Escalation Spiral Japan Cannot Escape
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final12%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
12%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/north-korea / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:north-koreadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed report from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense acknowledging an exchange of fire, intentional ramming causing at least one casualty, or the shoot-down of a military aircraft between US and Chinese uniformed armed forces in the South China Sea. Gray-zone incidents involving coast guard or maritime militia without casualties do not qualify. The incident must occur between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed report from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense acknowledging an exchange of fire, intentional ramming causing at least one casualty, or the shoot-down of a military aircraft between US and Chinese uniformed armed forces in the South China Sea. Gray-zone incidents involving coast guard or maritime militia without casualties do not qualify. The incident must occur between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea's War Economy — How Russian Revenue Nullifies SaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: North Korea conducts a confirmed underground nuclear detonation detected by the CTBTO International Monitoring System or confirmed by multiple national intelligence agencies. Subcritical tests or missile tests do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea's War Economy — How Russian Revenue Nullifies SanctionsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final12%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea's War Economy — How Russian Revenue Nullifies Sa
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: North Korea conducts a confirmed underground nuclear detonation detected by the CTBTO International Monitoring System or confirmed by multiple national intelligence agencies. Subcritical tests or missile tests do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea's War Economy — How Russian Revenue Nullifies Sanctions
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final12%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
12%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/north-korea
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:north-korea
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump-Putin Iran Call — Great Power Bargaining Over Middle EOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A jointly attributed public statement, communiqué, or press release from both the U.S. and Russian governments specifically addressing Iran's nuclear program, published by official government channels of both countries by September 30, 2026. Separate unilateral statements or unnamed source leaks do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump-Putin Iran Call — Great Power Bargaining Over Middle East OrderArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final17%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump-Putin Iran Call — Great Power Bargaining Over Middle E
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A jointly attributed public statement, communiqué, or press release from both the U.S. and Russian governments specifically addressing Iran's nuclear program, published by official government channels of both countries by September 30, 2026. Separate unilateral statements or unnamed source leaks do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump-Putin Iran Call — Great Power Bargaining Over Middle East Order
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final17%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
17%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SideOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed, publicly reported incident in which US or Chinese military forces intentionally discharge weapons (missiles, gunfire, torpedoes) at the other side's military assets in or within 200 nautical miles of the Taiwan Strait between March 19, 2026 and April 19, 2026. Accidental collisions, radar locks, or warning shots fired away from targets do not qualify. The incident must be confirmed by official statements from at least one government involved. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford to ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed, publicly reported incident in which US or Chinese military forces intentionally discharge weapons (missiles, gunfire, torpedoes) at the other side's military assets in or within 200 nautical miles of the Taiwan Strait between March 19, 2026 and April 19, 2026. Accidental collisions, radar locks, or warning shots fired away from targets do not qualify. The incident must be confirmed by official statements from at least one government involved. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford to Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Iran launch a direct military strike (missiles, drones, or both) on Israeli territory by April 2, 2026?Key Event: Iran-Israel Shadow War — Escalation Spiral Threatens 2026 PeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) of Iranian-origin missiles or drones striking Israeli territory (not proxy attacks from Lebanon, Iraq, or Yemen, but direct Iranian state military action). The strike must be attributed to Iran by both Israeli and at least one neutral intelligence assessment. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Israel Shadow War — Escalation Spiral Threatens 2026 Peace ArchitectureArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Iran launch a direct military strike (missiles, drones, or both) on Israeli territory by April 2, 2026?
Key Event: Iran-Israel Shadow War — Escalation Spiral Threatens 2026 Pe
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) of Iranian-origin missiles or drones striking Israeli territory (not proxy attacks from Lebanon, Iraq, or Yemen, but direct Iranian state military action). The strike must be attributed to Iran by both Israeli and at least one neutral intelligence assessment. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Israel Shadow War — Escalation Spiral Threatens 2026 Peace Architecture
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: bd56627a6002 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites ROur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026 at 23:59 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (weighted average across major exchanges) must be above $120,000.00 USD for the answer to be YES. If the price is at or below $120,000.00 at that time, the answer is NO. The specific reference is the CoinGecko BTC/USD price at the daily close on June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites Reserve Asset RulesArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites R
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026 at 23:59 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (weighted average across major exchanges) must be above $120,000.00 USD for the answer to be YES. If the price is at or below $120,000.00 at that time, the answer is NO. The specific reference is the CoinGecko BTC/USD price at the daily close on June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites Reserve Asset Rules
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Stablecoin Law — Regulation Reshapes the Digital Dollar ROur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Measured by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap data on December 31, 2026: if the combined market capitalization of USDT (Tether) and USDC (Circle) equals or exceeds their combined market cap as of the day before the regulation was signed into law, the answer is YES. If it remains below that level, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Stablecoin Law — Regulation Reshapes the Digital Dollar RaceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final10%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Stablecoin Law — Regulation Reshapes the Digital Dollar R
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Measured by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap data on December 31, 2026: if the combined market capitalization of USDT (Tether) and USDC (Circle) equals or exceeds their combined market cap as of the day before the regulation was signed into law, the answer is YES. If it remains below that level, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Stablecoin Law — Regulation Reshapes the Digital Dollar Race
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final10%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
10%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=xi-jinping
Referenced knowledge
entity:xi-jinping
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Fed's Iran War Rate Freeze — Geopolitics Traps Monetary PoliOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: The Federal Reserve announces a reduction of the federal funds target rate by at least 25 basis points at any scheduled or emergency FOMC meeting between March 19, 2026 and September 30, 2026, as reported in the official FOMC statement on federalreserve.gov. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisFed's Iran War Rate Freeze — Geopolitics Traps Monetary PolicyArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Fed's Iran War Rate Freeze — Geopolitics Traps Monetary Poli
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: The Federal Reserve announces a reduction of the federal funds target rate by at least 25 basis points at any scheduled or emergency FOMC meeting between March 19, 2026 and September 30, 2026, as reported in the official FOMC statement on federalreserve.gov. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Fed's Iran War Rate Freeze — Geopolitics Traps Monetary Policy
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Fed Holds Rates as Iran Conflict Reshapes Monetary CalculusOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: The Federal Reserve announces a reduction in the federal funds target range of at least 25 basis points at either the May 2026 or June 2026 FOMC meeting. Verified via official FOMC statement on federalreserve.gov. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisFed Holds Rates as Iran Conflict Reshapes Monetary Calculus — War vs InflationArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Fed Holds Rates as Iran Conflict Reshapes Monetary Calculus
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: The Federal Reserve announces a reduction in the federal funds target range of at least 25 basis points at either the May 2026 or June 2026 FOMC meeting. Verified via official FOMC statement on federalreserve.gov. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Fed Holds Rates as Iran Conflict Reshapes Monetary Calculus — War vs Inflation
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Fed Holds the Line on Rates — Iran War Forces a Monetary PolOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: The Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate range is reduced by at least 25 basis points from the current 3.50% level at any scheduled or emergency FOMC meeting with a decision date on or before July 31, 2026. Confirmed by the official FOMC statement published on the Federal Reserve's website. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisFed Holds the Line on Rates — Iran War Forces a Monetary Policy StalemateArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Fed Holds the Line on Rates — Iran War Forces a Monetary Pol
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: The Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate range is reduced by at least 25 basis points from the current 3.50% level at any scheduled or emergency FOMC meeting with a decision date on or before July 31, 2026. Confirmed by the official FOMC statement published on the Federal Reserve's website. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Fed Holds the Line on Rates — Iran War Forces a Monetary Policy Stalemate
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: UK Breaks Ranks on Iran — Alliance Strain Exposes Imperial OOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by September 30, 2026, the UK Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary, or Defence Secretary has made an official public statement explicitly refusing to participate in or support US military action against Iran, OR if Parliament passes a motion opposing UK military involvement. Resolved NO if the UK provides any form of military support (basing, overflight, intelligence sharing explicitly for targeting, or direct participation) for US military action against Iran, or if no such refusal statement is made because no US military action occurs or is seriously proposed. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUK Breaks Ranks on Iran — Alliance Strain Exposes Imperial OverreachArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final3%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: UK Breaks Ranks on Iran — Alliance Strain Exposes Imperial O
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by September 30, 2026, the UK Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary, or Defence Secretary has made an official public statement explicitly refusing to participate in or support US military action against Iran, OR if Parliament passes a motion opposing UK military involvement. Resolved NO if the UK provides any form of military support (basing, overflight, intelligence sharing explicitly for targeting, or direct participation) for US military action against Iran, or if no such refusal statement is made because no US military action occurs or is seriously proposed. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
UK Breaks Ranks on Iran — Alliance Strain Exposes Imperial Overreach
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final3%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
3%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 97.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — Escalation Spiral Neither Side CanOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A direct military engagement is defined as the confirmed, intentional firing of weapons (missiles, guns, torpedoes) by US or Chinese military forces against each other's personnel, vessels, or aircraft in or near the Taiwan Strait. This excludes: warning shots not directed at assets, accidental collisions, cyberattacks, economic sanctions, and exercises not involving live fire against the other party. Confirmation must come from official statements by either the US Department of Defense, China's Ministry of National Defense, or corroborated reporting by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Standoff — Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A direct military engagement is defined as the confirmed, intentional firing of weapons (missiles, guns, torpedoes) by US or Chinese military forces against each other's personnel, vessels, or aircraft in or near the Taiwan Strait. This excludes: warning shots not directed at assets, accidental collisions, cyberattacks, economic sanctions, and exercises not involving live fire against the other party. Confirmation must come from official statements by either the US Department of Defense, China's Ministry of National Defense, or corroborated reporting by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Standoff — Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Iran launch a retaliatory military strike (directly or via attributed proxy action) on Israeli military or intelligence targets by 2026-03-26?Key Event: Iran-Israel Shadow War — Escalation Could Shatter 2026 PeaceOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: A verified military strike — kinetic attack including missiles, drones, rockets, or armed assault — targeting Israeli military installations, intelligence facilities, or uniformed personnel, either conducted directly by Iranian armed forces or officially claimed/attributed to an Iranian-directed proxy group, occurring between 2026-03-19 and 2026-03-26. Cyber attacks, diplomatic protests, UN statements, and unattributed incidents do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Israel Shadow War — Escalation Could Shatter 2026 Peace TalksArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Iran launch a retaliatory military strike (directly or via attributed proxy action) on Israeli military or intelligence targets by 2026-03-26?
Key Event: Iran-Israel Shadow War — Escalation Could Shatter 2026 Peace
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: A verified military strike — kinetic attack including missiles, drones, rockets, or armed assault — targeting Israeli military installations, intelligence facilities, or uniformed personnel, either conducted directly by Iranian armed forces or officially claimed/attributed to an Iranian-directed proxy group, occurring between 2026-03-19 and 2026-03-26. Cyber attacks, diplomatic protests, UN statements, and unattributed incidents do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Israel Shadow War — Escalation Could Shatter 2026 Peace Talks
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: b0c2265251c4 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Escalation — The Spiral Neither Superpower COur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A verified report from either the US Department of Defense, China's Ministry of National Defense, or a credible international organization (e.g., UN, IISS) confirming that US and Chinese military personnel or platforms directly exchanged fire, collided resulting in casualties, or discharged weapons against each other's assets in the South China Sea between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. Gray-zone incidents involving coast guard or maritime militia without military casualties do not qualify. Unsafe intercepts without physical contact do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Escalation — The Spiral Neither Superpower Can ExitArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final96%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Escalation — The Spiral Neither Superpower C
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A verified report from either the US Department of Defense, China's Ministry of National Defense, or a credible international organization (e.g., UN, IISS) confirming that US and Chinese military personnel or platforms directly exchanged fire, collided resulting in casualties, or discharged weapons against each other's assets in the South China Sea between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. Gray-zone incidents involving coast guard or maritime militia without military casualties do not qualify. Unsafe intercepts without physical contact do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Escalation — The Spiral Neither Superpower Can Exit
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final96%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
96%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 96.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea's ICBM Revival — Japan's Defense Reckoning AccelOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: The Japanese government (Cabinet and/or National Diet) formally approves a supplementary budget, revised budget, or additional allocation that increases total defense spending for FY2026 by at least ¥500 billion above the amount originally planned under the 2022 Defense Buildup Program. Verification sources: Japanese Ministry of Finance budget announcements, Diet voting records, or official MoD procurement plan revisions. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea's ICBM Revival — Japan's Defense Reckoning AcceleratesArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final12%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea's ICBM Revival — Japan's Defense Reckoning Accel
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: The Japanese government (Cabinet and/or National Diet) formally approves a supplementary budget, revised budget, or additional allocation that increases total defense spending for FY2026 by at least ¥500 billion above the amount originally planned under the 2022 Defense Buildup Program. Verification sources: Japanese Ministry of Finance budget announcements, Diet voting records, or official MoD procurement plan revisions. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea's ICBM Revival — Japan's Defense Reckoning Accelerates
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final12%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
12%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/xi-jinping/north-korea
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:xi-jinpingentity:north-korea
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6's Reasoning Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for EnterOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: 'Mainstream adoption' is defined as 30% or more of the Fortune Global 500 (i.e., at least 150 companies) having GPT-6 deployed in at least one production workflow — not merely a pilot or proof-of-concept — as evidenced by official company disclosures, OpenAI enterprise customer announcements, or credible third-party surveys (e.g., Gartner, McKinsey, Forrester). Production workflow means the model's output is used in operational decision-making, not solely for internal experimentation. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6's Reasoning Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AIArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6's Reasoning Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enter
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: 'Mainstream adoption' is defined as 30% or more of the Fortune Global 500 (i.e., at least 150 companies) having GPT-6 deployed in at least one production workflow — not merely a pilot or proof-of-concept — as evidenced by official company disclosures, OpenAI enterprise customer announcements, or credible third-party surveys (e.g., Gartner, McKinsey, Forrester). Production workflow means the model's output is used in operational decision-making, not solely for internal experimentation. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6's Reasoning Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AI
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Ethereum Staking at 6% — The Yield Flywheel Reshaping CryptoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: ETH/USD spot price on Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken reaches or exceeds $6,000.00 at any point between now (March 2026) and June 30, 2026, as recorded by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical price data. A single intraday touch of $6,000 on any of these exchanges qualifies as YES. → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOEthereum Staking at 6% — The Yield Flywheel Reshaping Crypto Capital FlowsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Ethereum Staking at 6% — The Yield Flywheel Reshaping Crypto
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: ETH/USD spot price on Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken reaches or exceeds $6,000.00 at any point between now (March 2026) and June 30, 2026, as recorded by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical price data. A single intraday touch of $6,000 on any of these exchanges qualifies as YES. → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Ethereum Staking at 6% — The Yield Flywheel Reshaping Crypto Capital Flows
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump-Xi Summit Delay — Beijing Reads US Weakness as LeveragOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed, in-person bilateral meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping takes place before November 3, 2026. Virtual meetings, phone calls, or multilateral sideline encounters at G20/APEC do not count unless they include a dedicated bilateral session with joint statements or press availability. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump-Xi Summit Delay — Beijing Reads US Weakness as Leverage WindowArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final24%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump-Xi Summit Delay — Beijing Reads US Weakness as Leverag
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed, in-person bilateral meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping takes place before November 3, 2026. Virtual meetings, phone calls, or multilateral sideline encounters at G20/APEC do not count unless they include a dedicated bilateral session with joint statements or press availability. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump-Xi Summit Delay — Beijing Reads US Weakness as Leverage Window
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final24%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
24%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/trump/xi-jinping
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:trumpentity:xi-jinping
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Squeeze — China's Economic Coercion Reshapes tOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence⚡ ALPHA +31pt (vs market)➡ Verdict: Japan's government (Cabinet, Prime Minister, or Diet) formally announces, passes, or enacts at least one new policy, law, or executive order that explicitly names Taiwan or is officially described as targeting Taiwan-related economic cooperation, supply chain resilience, or security coordination. Informal or unnamed measures do not qualify. The measure must be publicly announced by an authorized government spokesperson or published in an official gazette by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%7% of prediction market capital bets on NOTaiwan Strait Squeeze — China's Economic Coercion Reshapes the Japan-Taiwan AxisArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Squeeze — China's Economic Coercion Reshapes t
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence⚡ ALPHA +31pt (vs market)
➡ Verdict: Japan's government (Cabinet, Prime Minister, or Diet) formally announces, passes, or enacts at least one new policy, law, or executive order that explicitly names Taiwan or is officially described as targeting Taiwan-related economic cooperation, supply chain resilience, or security coordination. Informal or unnamed measures do not qualify. The measure must be publicly announced by an authorized government spokesperson or published in an official gazette by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%
7% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Taiwan Strait Squeeze — China's Economic Coercion Reshapes the Japan-Taiwan Axis
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Fed Holds Rates Steady Twice — Middle East Uncertainty FreezOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: The Federal Reserve announces a reduction in the federal funds rate target range of at least 25 basis points at the May 6-7, June 16-17, or July 28-29 2026 FOMC meeting, as reported in the official FOMC statement on the Federal Reserve website. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisFed Holds Rates Steady Twice — Middle East Uncertainty Freezes Monetary PolicyArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final21%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Fed Holds Rates Steady Twice — Middle East Uncertainty Freez
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: The Federal Reserve announces a reduction in the federal funds rate target range of at least 25 basis points at the May 6-7, June 16-17, or July 28-29 2026 FOMC meeting, as reported in the official FOMC statement on the Federal Reserve website. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Fed Holds Rates Steady Twice — Middle East Uncertainty Freezes Monetary Policy
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final21%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
21%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran War & Oil Shock — The Escalation Spiral Threatening GloOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: Brent crude front-month futures contract (ICE) closing price exceeds $120.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-03-19 and 2026-06-30, as reported by ICE or Bloomberg. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran War & Oil Shock — The Escalation Spiral Threatening Global GrowthArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran War & Oil Shock — The Escalation Spiral Threatening Glo
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: Brent crude front-month futures contract (ICE) closing price exceeds $120.00 USD per barrel on at least one trading day between 2026-03-19 and 2026-06-30, as reported by ICE or Bloomberg. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran War & Oil Shock — The Escalation Spiral Threatening Global Growth
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Israel conduct a military strike on Iranian sovereign territory (within Iran's internationally recognized borders) by 2026-04-03?Key Event: Iran Strikes Israeli Drone Base — Escalation Spiral Tests DeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, or equivalent) that Israel conducted a military strike hitting targets within Iran's internationally recognized borders (excluding Iranian assets in Syria, Iraq, or other third countries) by April 3, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Strikes Israeli Drone Base — Escalation Spiral Tests Deterrence LimitsArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Israel conduct a military strike on Iranian sovereign territory (within Iran's internationally recognized borders) by 2026-04-03?
Key Event: Iran Strikes Israeli Drone Base — Escalation Spiral Tests De
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, or equivalent) that Israel conducted a military strike hitting targets within Iran's internationally recognized borders (excluding Iranian assets in Syria, Iraq, or other third countries) by April 3, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Strikes Israeli Drone Base — Escalation Spiral Tests Deterrence Limits
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 1620d75ccd30 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China issue a formal diplomatic protest (defined as an official MFA statement or summoning of the US ambassador) in response to the March 20, 2026 Taiwan Strait naval standoff by March 22, 2026?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SideOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by end of day March 22, 2026 (Beijing time), the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued an official statement of protest regarding the March 20, 2026 Taiwan Strait incident, OR the Chinese government has summoned or called in the US Ambassador or a senior US diplomatic official to deliver a formal protest. Official MFA press conference statements, written statements on the MFA website, or confirmed media reports of ambassador summoning all qualify. Resolved NO if no such action has occurred by the deadline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China issue a formal diplomatic protest (defined as an official MFA statement or summoning of the US ambassador) in response to the March 20, 2026 Taiwan Strait naval standoff by March 22, 2026?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by end of day March 22, 2026 (Beijing time), the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued an official statement of protest regarding the March 20, 2026 Taiwan Strait incident, OR the Chinese government has summoned or called in the US Ambassador or a senior US diplomatic official to deliver a formal protest. Official MFA press conference statements, written statements on the MFA website, or confirmed media reports of ambassador summoning all qualify. Resolved NO if no such action has occurred by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 2423e63fb804 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO issue a unified formal statement specifically condemning Russia's tactical nuclear deployment near Ukraine by 2026-03-27?Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests NOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO (as an institution, through the North Atlantic Council or Secretary General) issues an official public statement that (1) specifically references the Russian tactical nuclear deployment identified by satellite imagery near the Ukrainian border, and (2) uses language of condemnation, denunciation, or equivalent, and (3) is attributed to NATO as an alliance (not individual member states). The statement must be published on NATO's official website or communicated through an official NATO press conference by 23:59 UTC on March 27, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red LinesArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO issue a unified formal statement specifically condemning Russia's tactical nuclear deployment near Ukraine by 2026-03-27?
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests N
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO (as an institution, through the North Atlantic Council or Secretary General) issues an official public statement that (1) specifically references the Russian tactical nuclear deployment identified by satellite imagery near the Ukrainian border, and (2) uses language of condemnation, denunciation, or equivalent, and (3) is attributed to NATO as an alliance (not individual member states). The statement must be published on NATO's official website or communicated through an official NATO press conference by 23:59 UTC on March 27, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red Lines
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: bb3246534ab1 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Oil Shock Meets AI Hunger — When Energy Wars Throttle the CoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: At least one of Microsoft, Alphabet/Google, Amazon, or Meta must issue revised 2026 capital expenditure guidance (in an earnings call, SEC filing, or official press release) that is 10% or more below their previously stated 2026 AI/data center capex target, with energy costs explicitly cited as a contributing factor in management commentary. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisOil Shock Meets AI Hunger — When Energy Wars Throttle the Compute RevolutionArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final78%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Oil Shock Meets AI Hunger — When Energy Wars Throttle the Co
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least one of Microsoft, Alphabet/Google, Amazon, or Meta must issue revised 2026 capital expenditure guidance (in an earnings call, SEC filing, or official press release) that is 10% or more below their previously stated 2026 AI/data center capex target, with energy costs explicitly cited as a contributing factor in management commentary. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Oil Shock Meets AI Hunger — When Energy Wars Throttle the Compute Revolution
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final78%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
78%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=google
Referenced knowledge
entity:google
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: UK Breaks Ranks on Iran — Alliance Strain Exposes Imperial OOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal vote or binding debate in the House of Commons specifically addressing UK military involvement in, or support for, US military operations against Iran. A general PMQs exchange or opposition day motion that does not result in a binding vote does not qualify. The vote must be recorded in Hansard as a division on Iran-related military policy. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUK Breaks Ranks on Iran — Alliance Strain Exposes Imperial OverreachArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final3%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: UK Breaks Ranks on Iran — Alliance Strain Exposes Imperial O
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal vote or binding debate in the House of Commons specifically addressing UK military involvement in, or support for, US military operations against Iran. A general PMQs exchange or opposition day motion that does not result in a binding vote does not qualify. The vote must be recorded in Hansard as a division on Iran-related military policy. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
UK Breaks Ranks on Iran — Alliance Strain Exposes Imperial Overreach
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final3%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
3%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 97.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran Strikes & Energy Shock — Geopolitical War Premium ReturOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: Brent crude front-month futures contract closes above $100.00 per barrel on any single trading day between March 20, 2026 and June 30, 2026, as reported by ICE Futures Europe. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Strikes & Energy Shock — Geopolitical War Premium Returns to Global MarketsArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran Strikes & Energy Shock — Geopolitical War Premium Retur
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: Brent crude front-month futures contract closes above $100.00 per barrel on any single trading day between March 20, 2026 and June 30, 2026, as reported by ICE Futures Europe. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Strikes & Energy Shock — Geopolitical War Premium Returns to Global Markets
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6's Reasoning Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for EnterOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: Verified by OpenAI public disclosures, earnings reports, or credible third-party surveys (e.g., Gartner, Forrester, IDC) confirming that 250 or more Fortune 500 companies have active paid GPT-6 enterprise API contracts or enterprise license agreements as of September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6's Reasoning Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AIArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6's Reasoning Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enter
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: Verified by OpenAI public disclosures, earnings reports, or credible third-party surveys (e.g., Gartner, Forrester, IDC) confirming that 250 or more Fortune 500 companies have active paid GPT-6 enterprise API contracts or enterprise license agreements as of September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6's Reasoning Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Enterprise AI
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: BOJ Hold and Hormuz Crisis — Geopolitical Risk Freezes MonetOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: By the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting held by June 30, 2026, will the BOJ decide to raise the target for the policy interest rate to over 0.75%? Judgment will be based on the official announcement of the BOJ (statement from the Monetary Policy Meeting). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBOJ Hold and Hormuz Crisis — Geopolitical Risk Freezes Monetary NormalizationArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: BOJ Hold and Hormuz Crisis — Geopolitical Risk Freezes Monet
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: By the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting held by June 30, 2026, will the BOJ decide to raise the target for the policy interest rate to over 0.75%? Judgment will be based on the official announcement of the BOJ (statement from the Monetary Policy Meeting). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
BOJ Hold and Hormuz Crisis — Geopolitical Risk Freezes Monetary Normalization
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the COur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's daily closing price (UTC, as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap) must remain at or above $120,000 on every single trading day from March 20, 2026 through June 30, 2026. If BTC closes below $120,000 on any day during this period, the answer is NO. If BTC closes at or above $120,000 on every day during this period, the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Crypto CycleArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the C
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's daily closing price (UTC, as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap) must remain at or above $120,000 on every single trading day from March 20, 2026 through June 30, 2026. If BTC closes below $120,000 on any day during this period, the answer is NO. If BTC closes at or above $120,000 on every day during this period, the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Crypto Cycle
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Takaichi's 'Existential Crisis' — US Intel on Japan SecurityOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Japanese government (Cabinet) formulates and publishes, as a Cabinet decision, National Security Council (NSC) decision, or official document, the criteria, conditions of application, or operational guidelines for recognizing a Situation Threatening Japan's Survival in a Taiwan contingency scenario. Informal discussions and news-based leaks are NOT included. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTakaichi's 'Existential Crisis' — US Intel on Japan Security ShiftArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Takaichi's 'Existential Crisis' — US Intel on Japan Security
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Japanese government (Cabinet) formulates and publishes, as a Cabinet decision, National Security Council (NSC) decision, or official document, the criteria, conditions of application, or operational guidelines for recognizing a Situation Threatening Japan's Survival in a Taiwan contingency scenario. Informal discussions and news-based leaks are NOT included. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Takaichi's 'Existential Crisis' — US Intel on Japan Security Shift
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=taiwan/japan/xi-jinping
Referenced knowledge
entity:taiwanentity:japanentity:xi-jinping
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea's New Missile — Escalation Spiral Forces TrilateOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A North Korean ballistic missile test results in the missile body or debris confirmed by the Japanese Ministry of Defense or Japan Coast Guard to have landed within Japan's legally defined exclusive economic zone (extending 200 nautical miles from baseline). J-ALERT activation alone does not count; confirmed physical impact within the EEZ is required. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea's New Missile — Escalation Spiral Forces Trilateral Defense ResetArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final12%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea's New Missile — Escalation Spiral Forces Trilate
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A North Korean ballistic missile test results in the missile body or debris confirmed by the Japanese Ministry of Defense or Japan Coast Guard to have landed within Japan's legally defined exclusive economic zone (extending 200 nautical miles from baseline). J-ALERT activation alone does not count; confirmed physical impact within the EEZ is required. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea's New Missile — Escalation Spiral Forces Trilateral Defense Reset
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final12%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
12%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/north-korea / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:north-koreadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A verified, publicly reported incident involving the intentional or accidental exchange of weapons fire, missile launch, or deliberate ramming between US military (Navy, Air Force, or Marine Corps) and Chinese military (PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, or PLA Rocket Force) assets in the South China Sea that results in at least one confirmed casualty on either side. Coast guard incidents between China and the Philippines do not qualify unless US military forces are directly involved in the kinetic exchange. The incident must be confirmed by official statements from at least one government involved. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A verified, publicly reported incident involving the intentional or accidental exchange of weapons fire, missile launch, or deliberate ramming between US military (Navy, Air Force, or Marine Corps) and Chinese military (PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, or PLA Rocket Force) assets in the South China Sea that results in at least one confirmed casualty on either side. Coast guard incidents between China and the Philippines do not qualify unless US military forces are directly involved in the kinetic exchange. The incident must be confirmed by official statements from at least one government involved. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Israel conduct a retaliatory military strike against targets inside Iranian sovereign territory by 2026-03-27?Key Event: Iran Strikes Israeli Drone Base — Escalation Tests Middle EaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, or CNN) of Israeli military strikes hitting targets within Iran's internationally recognized borders (not Iranian assets in Syria or Iraq, but targets on Iranian soil) by 23:59 UTC on March 27, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Strikes Israeli Drone Base — Escalation Tests Middle East DeterrenceArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Israel conduct a retaliatory military strike against targets inside Iranian sovereign territory by 2026-03-27?
Key Event: Iran Strikes Israeli Drone Base — Escalation Tests Middle Ea
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, or CNN) of Israeli military strikes hitting targets within Iran's internationally recognized borders (not Iranian assets in Syria or Iraq, but targets on Iranian soil) by 23:59 UTC on March 27, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Strikes Israeli Drone Base — Escalation Tests Middle East Deterrence
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: bd132e62b0ba (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China issue a formal diplomatic protest (official demarche or summoning of the US ambassador/charge d'affaires) in response to the March 20, 2026 Taiwan Strait naval confrontation by March 22, 2026?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SideOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution requires a confirmed public report from official Chinese state media (Xinhua, CCTV, or MFA spokesperson briefing) that China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has either (a) issued a formal diplomatic protest / demarche to the United States regarding the March 20, 2026 Taiwan Strait incident, or (b) summoned or called in the US ambassador or charge d'affaires to register a formal objection. Routine spokesperson criticism at a scheduled press briefing alone does not count — there must be a specific diplomatic action beyond standard press commentary. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China issue a formal diplomatic protest (official demarche or summoning of the US ambassador/charge d'affaires) in response to the March 20, 2026 Taiwan Strait naval confrontation by March 22, 2026?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution requires a confirmed public report from official Chinese state media (Xinhua, CCTV, or MFA spokesperson briefing) that China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has either (a) issued a formal diplomatic protest / demarche to the United States regarding the March 20, 2026 Taiwan Strait incident, or (b) summoned or called in the US ambassador or charge d'affaires to register a formal objection. Routine spokesperson criticism at a scheduled press briefing alone does not count — there must be a specific diplomatic action beyond standard press commentary. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: c4c2cd33a149 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Oil vs. AI — How Middle East War Threatens the Data Center BOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: The average daily closing price of Brent crude oil futures (front-month contract) for the period April 1 - June 30, 2026, as reported by ICE (Intercontinental Exchange), is above $90.00 per barrel. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisOil vs. AI — How Middle East War Threatens the Data Center BoomArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final8%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Oil vs. AI — How Middle East War Threatens the Data Center B
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: The average daily closing price of Brent crude oil futures (front-month contract) for the period April 1 - June 30, 2026, as reported by ICE (Intercontinental Exchange), is above $90.00 per barrel. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Oil vs. AI — How Middle East War Threatens the Data Center Boom
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final8%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
8%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran War Powers Vote — Congress Cedes Authority as EscalatioOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Any bill or joint resolution that passes both chambers of Congress and either is signed by the president or overrides a presidential veto, which contains binding provisions limiting, constraining, or terminating U.S. military operations against Iran. Non-binding resolutions, sense-of-Congress resolutions, and resolutions that pass only one chamber do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran War Powers Vote — Congress Cedes Authority as Escalation DeepensArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran War Powers Vote — Congress Cedes Authority as Escalatio
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Any bill or joint resolution that passes both chambers of Congress and either is signed by the president or overrides a presidential veto, which contains binding provisions limiting, constraining, or terminating U.S. military operations against Iran. Non-binding resolutions, sense-of-Congress resolutions, and resolutions that pass only one chamber do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran War Powers Vote — Congress Cedes Authority as Escalation Deepens
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the United States issue a formal diplomatic protest (official demarche or summoning of the Chinese ambassador) regarding the March 2026 Spratly Islands naval encounter by 2026-03-22?Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the US State Department or White House officially announces a formal diplomatic protest, demarche, or summoning/recall of ambassador related to the March 20, 2026 naval encounter near the Spratly Islands, as reported by major wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP) by end of day March 22, 2026 UTC. Strongly worded press statements or Pentagon condemnations alone do NOT count — the action must be a formal diplomatic protest through official diplomatic channels. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the United States issue a formal diplomatic protest (official demarche or summoning of the Chinese ambassador) regarding the March 2026 Spratly Islands naval encounter by 2026-03-22?
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the US State Department or White House officially announces a formal diplomatic protest, demarche, or summoning/recall of ambassador related to the March 20, 2026 naval encounter near the Spratly Islands, as reported by major wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP) by end of day March 22, 2026 UTC. Strongly worded press statements or Pentagon condemnations alone do NOT count — the action must be a formal diplomatic protest through official diplomatic channels. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 313003923d29 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China conduct a military exercise involving naval or air assets within 200 nautical miles of Taiwan by 2026-03-27?Key Event: Taiwan's Largest Military Drill — Election-Year Escalation TOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 94% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, Bloomberg) or official PLA/Chinese MoD announcements of military exercises involving naval vessels, aircraft, or missile units operating within 200 nautical miles of Taiwan's coastline, occurring between 2026-03-20 and 2026-03-27. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan's Largest Military Drill — Election-Year Escalation Threatens StabilityArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China conduct a military exercise involving naval or air assets within 200 nautical miles of Taiwan by 2026-03-27?
Key Event: Taiwan's Largest Military Drill — Election-Year Escalation T
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 94% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, Bloomberg) or official PLA/Chinese MoD announcements of military exercises involving naval vessels, aircraft, or missile units operating within 200 nautical miles of Taiwan's coastline, occurring between 2026-03-20 and 2026-03-27. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan's Largest Military Drill — Election-Year Escalation Threatens Stability
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 6.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.88)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: b9778b4dc5a0 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO issue an official collective statement condemning Russia's tactical nuclear weapon drills by March 22, 2026?Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Tests NATOOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 99% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO (as an institution, via the Secretary General or North Atlantic Council) publishes or delivers an official public statement that explicitly references Russia's March 2026 tactical nuclear drills and uses language of condemnation, criticism, or denunciation. Bilateral statements by individual member states do not count — it must be an institutional NATO statement. The statement must be issued on or before March 22, 2026 (within 48 hours of the drill announcement). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Tests NATO's Red LinesArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO issue an official collective statement condemning Russia's tactical nuclear weapon drills by March 22, 2026?
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Tests NATO
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 99% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO (as an institution, via the Secretary General or North Atlantic Council) publishes or delivers an official public statement that explicitly references Russia's March 2026 tactical nuclear drills and uses language of condemnation, criticism, or denunciation. Bilateral statements by individual member states do not count — it must be an institutional NATO statement. The statement must be issued on or before March 22, 2026 (within 48 hours of the drill announcement). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Tests NATO's Red Lines
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 99.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 741cfc0fbfa5 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Gabbard Under Fire — Intelligence Crisis Meets Iran War EscaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A resolution or legislation explicitly authorizing, restricting, or revoking authorization for military action against Iran must pass both chambers of Congress (House and Senate) and either be signed by the president or pass with a veto-proof majority. Symbolic or non-binding resolutions do not count. The measure must specifically reference Iran or Iranian military targets. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGabbard Under Fire — Intelligence Crisis Meets Iran War EscalationArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Gabbard Under Fire — Intelligence Crisis Meets Iran War Esca
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A resolution or legislation explicitly authorizing, restricting, or revoking authorization for military action against Iran must pass both chambers of Congress (House and Senate) and either be signed by the president or pass with a veto-proof majority. Symbolic or non-binding resolutions do not count. The measure must specifically reference Iran or Iranian military targets. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Gabbard Under Fire — Intelligence Crisis Meets Iran War Escalation
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: China's Energy Fortress — Strategic Reserves Turn Crisis IntOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Official announcement by China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), State Council, or state media confirmation of a coordinated SPR release. Routine commercial stock adjustments do not count — the release must be explicitly characterized as an emergency or strategic drawdown by Chinese government sources. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisChina's Energy Fortress — Strategic Reserves Turn Crisis Into LeverageArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final18%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: China's Energy Fortress — Strategic Reserves Turn Crisis Int
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Official announcement by China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), State Council, or state media confirmation of a coordinated SPR release. Routine commercial stock adjustments do not count — the release must be explicitly characterized as an emergency or strategic drawdown by Chinese government sources. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
China's Energy Fortress — Strategic Reserves Turn Crisis Into Leverage
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final18%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
18%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Warsh Fed Nomination vs. Epstein Shadow — Confirmation as LeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: Kevin Warsh receives a majority vote in the U.S. Senate confirming him as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. A withdrawal of the nomination, a failed vote, or no vote held by July 1, 2026 counts as NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)YES 100%100% of prediction market capital bets on YESWarsh Fed Nomination vs. Epstein Shadow — Confirmation as Legitimacy TestArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final100%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Warsh Fed Nomination vs. Epstein Shadow — Confirmation as Le
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: Kevin Warsh receives a majority vote in the U.S. Senate confirming him as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. A withdrawal of the nomination, a failed vote, or no vote held by July 1, 2026 counts as NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)YES 100%
100% of prediction market capital bets on YES
Warsh Fed Nomination vs. Epstein Shadow — Confirmation as Legitimacy Test
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final100%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
100%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Eastern Pivot — Japan Braces as Ukraine War ReshapeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs or Cabinet Office officially announces at least one new sanctions measure against Russia (new entity designations, expanded export controls, additional trade restrictions, or asset freezes) between 2026-03-20 and 2026-12-31. Routine administrative updates to existing sanctions lists (e.g., adding individuals already sanctioned by other G7 members) count as YES. The announcement must be publicly documented on official Japanese government websites or press releases. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Eastern Pivot — Japan Braces as Ukraine War Reshapes Indo-Pacific SecurityArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final17%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Eastern Pivot — Japan Braces as Ukraine War Reshape
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs or Cabinet Office officially announces at least one new sanctions measure against Russia (new entity designations, expanded export controls, additional trade restrictions, or asset freezes) between 2026-03-20 and 2026-12-31. Routine administrative updates to existing sanctions lists (e.g., adding individuals already sanctioned by other G7 members) count as YES. The announcement must be publicly documented on official Japanese government websites or press releases. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Eastern Pivot — Japan Braces as Ukraine War Reshapes Indo-Pacific Security
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final17%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
17%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from official US Department of Defense or Chinese Ministry of National Defense sources, or independently verified by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP), of an incident involving direct exchange of fire, intentional ramming resulting in casualties, or shooting down of aircraft between US military forces and Chinese military forces (PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, or Chinese Coast Guard operating under military command) in the South China Sea. Incidents involving only Philippine forces and Chinese forces without direct US military involvement do not qualify. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from official US Department of Defense or Chinese Ministry of National Defense sources, or independently verified by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP), of an incident involving direct exchange of fire, intentional ramming resulting in casualties, or shooting down of aircraft between US military forces and Chinese military forces (PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, or Chinese Coast Guard operating under military command) in the South China Sea. Incidents involving only Philippine forces and Chinese forces without direct US military involvement do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Oman Breaks Silence on Iran War — Imperial Overreach Meets AOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal, publicly announced ceasefire agreement or diplomatic framework agreement between the United States and Iran, confirmed by official statements from both governments, by September 30, 2026. Informal de-escalation or unilateral pauses do not count — must be a bilateral or multilateral agreement with explicit terms acknowledged by both Washington and Tehran. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisOman Breaks Silence on Iran War — Imperial Overreach Meets Alliance StrainArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Oman Breaks Silence on Iran War — Imperial Overreach Meets A
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal, publicly announced ceasefire agreement or diplomatic framework agreement between the United States and Iran, confirmed by official statements from both governments, by September 30, 2026. Informal de-escalation or unilateral pauses do not count — must be a bilateral or multilateral agreement with explicit terms acknowledged by both Washington and Tehran. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Oman Breaks Silence on Iran War — Imperial Overreach Meets Alliance Strain
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Takaichi US Visit & Summit — The 'Price' of Alliance at a StOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the United States Trade Representative (USTR) or an executive order officially raises tariffs on Japanese-made automobiles to a level exceeding the current 2.5% and the application is actually started. NO if it is under consideration, negotiation, or postponed. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTakaichi US Visit & Summit — The 'Price' of Alliance at a Structural Turning PointArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Takaichi US Visit & Summit — The 'Price' of Alliance at a St
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the United States Trade Representative (USTR) or an executive order officially raises tariffs on Japanese-made automobiles to a level exceeding the current 2.5% and the application is actually started. NO if it is under consideration, negotiation, or postponed. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Takaichi US Visit & Summit — The 'Price' of Alliance at a Structural Turning Point
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan / dynamics=tariff-escalation
Referenced knowledge
entity:japandynamic:tariff-escalationpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: UK-US Alliance Fractures Over Iran — Badenoch's Break SignalOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: A formal statement by the UK Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary, or Defence Secretary explicitly ruling out UK military participation in strikes against Iran, or a Parliamentary motion to that effect passing with government support, constitutes a YES. Continued ambiguity or 'wait and see' language constitutes a NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOUK-US Alliance Fractures Over Iran — Badenoch's Break Signals Structural ShiftArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: UK-US Alliance Fractures Over Iran — Badenoch's Break Signal
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: A formal statement by the UK Prime Minister, Foreign Secretary, or Defence Secretary explicitly ruling out UK military participation in strikes against Iran, or a Parliamentary motion to that effect passing with government support, constitutes a YES. Continued ambiguity or 'wait and see' language constitutes a NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
UK-US Alliance Fractures Over Iran — Badenoch's Break Signals Structural Shift
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Strain Meets Middle East EsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: A joint statement or official communiqué from the US-Japan summit explicitly references Japan committing to enhanced cooperation on Iran sanctions enforcement, using specific language about sanctions, compliance, or economic pressure measures against Iran. General language about 'Middle East stability' or 'regional security' without specific mention of Iran sanctions enforcement does not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTakaichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Strain Meets Middle East EscalationArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final10%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Takaichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Strain Meets Middle East Es
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: A joint statement or official communiqué from the US-Japan summit explicitly references Japan committing to enhanced cooperation on Iran sanctions enforcement, using specific language about sanctions, compliance, or economic pressure measures against Iran. General language about 'Middle East stability' or 'regional security' without specific mention of Iran sanctions enforcement does not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Takaichi-Trump Summit — Alliance Strain Meets Middle East Escalation
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final10%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
10%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan/trump / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japanentity:trumpdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the United States issue a formal diplomatic protest (official démarche) to China regarding the March 2026 South China Sea naval near-collision by 2026-03-22?Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if the US Department of State or Department of Defense publicly confirms or credible reporting (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, or official US government statement) indicates that a formal diplomatic protest, démarche, or official complaint has been delivered to the Chinese government regarding the March 2026 near-collision incident by end of day March 22, 2026 (UTC). Resolved NO if no such action is publicly confirmed by the deadline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the United States issue a formal diplomatic protest (official démarche) to China regarding the March 2026 South China Sea naval near-collision by 2026-03-22?
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if the US Department of State or Department of Defense publicly confirms or credible reporting (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, or official US government statement) indicates that a formal diplomatic protest, démarche, or official complaint has been delivered to the Chinese government regarding the March 2026 near-collision incident by end of day March 22, 2026 (UTC). Resolved NO if no such action is publicly confirmed by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 321f4801524c (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO issue an official public statement condemning Russia's nuclear drills by March 22, 2026?Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation SpiralOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO (via the Secretary General, North Atlantic Council, or official NATO spokesperson) publishes an official statement, press release, or makes an on-record press conference statement that explicitly condemns, criticizes, or denounces Russia's announced tactical nuclear weapon drills near Ukraine's border. Social media posts from official NATO accounts count. Statements from individual member states do not count — it must be from NATO institutional channels. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral TrapArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO issue an official public statement condemning Russia's nuclear drills by March 22, 2026?
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO (via the Secretary General, North Atlantic Council, or official NATO spokesperson) publishes an official statement, press release, or makes an on-record press conference statement that explicitly condemns, criticizes, or denounces Russia's announced tactical nuclear weapon drills near Ukraine's border. Social media posts from official NATO accounts count. Statements from individual member states do not count — it must be from NATO institutional channels. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral Trap
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 1811ad02392e (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: China's Energy Fortress — Strategic Reserves Turn Crisis intOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reports from official Chinese government sources, IEA monitoring data, or credible satellite imagery analysis (e.g., Kayrros, Orbital Insight) confirming cumulative SPR drawdowns exceeding 50 million barrels between March 2026 and September 30, 2026. Routine commercial inventory fluctuations do not count — only confirmed drawdowns from designated SPR facilities. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisChina's Energy Fortress — Strategic Reserves Turn Crisis into LeverageArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final18%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: China's Energy Fortress — Strategic Reserves Turn Crisis int
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reports from official Chinese government sources, IEA monitoring data, or credible satellite imagery analysis (e.g., Kayrros, Orbital Insight) confirming cumulative SPR drawdowns exceeding 50 million barrels between March 2026 and September 30, 2026. Routine commercial inventory fluctuations do not count — only confirmed drawdowns from designated SPR facilities. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
China's Energy Fortress — Strategic Reserves Turn Crisis into Leverage
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final18%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
18%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Warsh's Epstein Shadow — Fed Confirmation as Institutional SOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: Kevin Warsh receives a majority vote in the U.S. Senate to serve as Chair of the Federal Reserve and is officially confirmed before Jerome Powell's term expires on May 15, 2026. If Warsh withdraws his nomination, is not brought to a floor vote, or fails to receive a majority, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)YES 100%100% of prediction market capital bets on YESWarsh's Epstein Shadow — Fed Confirmation as Institutional Stress TestArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final100%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Warsh's Epstein Shadow — Fed Confirmation as Institutional S
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: Kevin Warsh receives a majority vote in the U.S. Senate to serve as Chair of the Federal Reserve and is officially confirmed before Jerome Powell's term expires on May 15, 2026. If Warsh withdraws his nomination, is not brought to a floor vote, or fails to receive a majority, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)YES 100%
100% of prediction market capital bets on YES
Warsh's Epstein Shadow — Fed Confirmation as Institutional Stress Test
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final100%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
100%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Oman's Iran War Accusation — When Allies Hijack Imperial ForOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reporting from at least two credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, or equivalent) that formal or indirect negotiations between the US and Iran have begun, facilitated by an identified third-party mediator, with both sides confirming participation. Backchannel contacts that are denied by both parties do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisOman's Iran War Accusation — When Allies Hijack Imperial Foreign PolicyArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Oman's Iran War Accusation — When Allies Hijack Imperial For
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reporting from at least two credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera, or equivalent) that formal or indirect negotiations between the US and Iran have begun, facilitated by an identified third-party mediator, with both sides confirming participation. Backchannel contacts that are denied by both parties do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Oman's Iran War Accusation — When Allies Hijack Imperial Foreign Policy
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: UK-US Alliance Fractures Over Iran — Imperial Overreach MeetOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal division (recorded vote) in the House of Commons specifically on the question of UK military action, support, or involvement related to Iran. Procedural motions, opposition day debates without binding votes, or PMQs exchanges do not count. Must be a substantive motion put to a division. → ❌ Missed❓ Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOUK-US Alliance Fractures Over Iran — Imperial Overreach Meets Domestic BacklashArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: UK-US Alliance Fractures Over Iran — Imperial Overreach Meet
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal division (recorded vote) in the House of Commons specifically on the question of UK military action, support, or involvement related to Iran. Procedural motions, opposition day debates without binding votes, or PMQs exchanges do not count. Must be a substantive motion put to a division. → ❌ Missed
❓ Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
UK-US Alliance Fractures Over Iran — Imperial Overreach Meets Domestic Backlash
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: xAI's TruthBot — When the Arbiter of Truth Becomes the New POur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: At least one peer-reviewed or pre-print study from a recognized academic institution (e.g., MIT Media Lab, Oxford Internet Institute, Stanford Internet Observatory) must be published by 2026-12-31 measuring misinformation prevalence on X before and after TruthBot deployment. The study must find a 50% or greater reduction in the circulation of content classified as misinformation using established methodologies. If no such study is published, or if published studies show less than 50% reduction, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOxAI's TruthBot — When the Arbiter of Truth Becomes the New Power BrokerArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: xAI's TruthBot — When the Arbiter of Truth Becomes the New P
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least one peer-reviewed or pre-print study from a recognized academic institution (e.g., MIT Media Lab, Oxford Internet Institute, Stanford Internet Observatory) must be published by 2026-12-31 measuring misinformation prevalence on X before and after TruthBot deployment. The study must find a 50% or greater reduction in the circulation of content classified as misinformation using established methodologies. If no such study is published, or if published studies show less than 50% reduction, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
xAI's TruthBot — When the Arbiter of Truth Becomes the New Power Broker
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: BOJ Rate Hike Under Hormuz Crisis — Geopolitics Hostage to MOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the BOJ decides to raise the policy interest rate (target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate) from 0.75% at the Monetary Policy Meeting (April, June) held by June 30, 2026, NO if it holds at 0.75% or lowers it. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBOJ Rate Hike Under Hormuz Crisis — Geopolitics Hostage to Monetary PolicyArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: BOJ Rate Hike Under Hormuz Crisis — Geopolitics Hostage to M
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the BOJ decides to raise the policy interest rate (target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate) from 0.75% at the Monetary Policy Meeting (April, June) held by June 30, 2026, NO if it holds at 0.75% or lowers it. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
BOJ Rate Hike Under Hormuz Crisis — Geopolitics Hostage to Monetary Policy
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping CrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Ethereum's fully diluted market capitalization (circulating supply × spot price) must exceed Bitcoin's fully diluted market capitalization (circulating supply × spot price) on the same calendar day, as recorded by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap, at least once before December 31, 2027. A single day of higher market cap qualifies as YES. → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOEthereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping Crypto Capital FlowsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping Cr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Ethereum's fully diluted market capitalization (circulating supply × spot price) must exceed Bitcoin's fully diluted market capitalization (circulating supply × spot price) on the same calendar day, as recorded by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap, at least once before December 31, 2027. A single day of higher market cap qualifies as YES. → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping Crypto Capital Flows
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin/ethereum/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoinentity:ethereumentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Taiwan formally request emergency US military support (defined as a public government-to-government request for military personnel deployment, emergency arms delivery, or direct defense assistance beyond existing frameworks) by 2026-03-28?Key Event: Taiwan's Drone Crisis — Beijing's Gray Zone Escalation SpiraOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official public statement or formal diplomatic communication from Taiwan's government (Ministry of National Defense, Presidential Office, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs) explicitly requesting emergency US military support — meaning deployment of US military personnel, emergency weapons deliveries outside existing sales pipelines, or direct defense assistance. Routine arms sales discussions, informal consultations, or unconfirmed media reports do not count. The request must be publicly acknowledged by either Taiwanese or US officials by March 28, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan's Drone Crisis — Beijing's Gray Zone Escalation Spiral Before 2026 ElectionsArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Taiwan formally request emergency US military support (defined as a public government-to-government request for military personnel deployment, emergency arms delivery, or direct defense assistance beyond existing frameworks) by 2026-03-28?
Key Event: Taiwan's Drone Crisis — Beijing's Gray Zone Escalation Spira
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official public statement or formal diplomatic communication from Taiwan's government (Ministry of National Defense, Presidential Office, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs) explicitly requesting emergency US military support — meaning deployment of US military personnel, emergency weapons deliveries outside existing sales pipelines, or direct defense assistance. Routine arms sales discussions, informal consultations, or unconfirmed media reports do not count. The request must be publicly acknowledged by either Taiwanese or US officials by March 28, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan's Drone Crisis — Beijing's Gray Zone Escalation Spiral Before 2026 Elections
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: d68234af1c7e (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AlphaMind and the AGI Mirage — DeepMind's Claim Reshapes theOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: AlphaMind must achieve the highest published score on at least 3 out of 5 widely recognized multi-domain reasoning benchmarks (MMLU, GPQA, ARC-AGI, HumanEval, MATH) as verified by independent evaluators (not Google-published results alone) by September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAlphaMind and the AGI Mirage — DeepMind's Claim Reshapes the AI Power RaceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final15%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AlphaMind and the AGI Mirage — DeepMind's Claim Reshapes the
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: AlphaMind must achieve the highest published score on at least 3 out of 5 widely recognized multi-domain reasoning benchmarks (MMLU, GPQA, ARC-AGI, HumanEval, MATH) as verified by independent evaluators (not Google-published results alone) by September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AlphaMind and the AGI Mirage — DeepMind's Claim Reshapes the AI Power Race
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final15%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
15%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=google
Referenced knowledge
entity:google
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO officially announce new troop deployments to its Eastern European member states within 72 hours of March 21, 2026 (by March 24, 2026)?Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — The Escalation Spiral ThaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO Secretary General or NATO official communiqué explicitly announces new troop, equipment, or force deployments to Eastern European NATO member states (Poland, Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria, or Slovakia) as a direct response to the Russian tactical nuclear deployment. Rotation of existing forces or reaffirmation of prior commitments does not qualify — the announcement must reference new or additional deployments. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redefine NATOArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO officially announce new troop deployments to its Eastern European member states within 72 hours of March 21, 2026 (by March 24, 2026)?
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — The Escalation Spiral Tha
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO Secretary General or NATO official communiqué explicitly announces new troop, equipment, or force deployments to Eastern European NATO member states (Poland, Baltic states, Romania, Bulgaria, or Slovakia) as a direct response to the Russian tactical nuclear deployment. Rotation of existing forces or reaffirmation of prior commitments does not qualify — the announcement must reference new or additional deployments. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redefine NATO
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 78af6bba848b (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — The Innovation-Safety PendulumOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Count the number of frontier AI model releases (defined as new foundation models, not updates or fine-tunes, publicly announced by OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, and Meta) in the 24-month period from March 2026 to February 2028 and compare to the 24-month baseline from January 2024 to December 2025. If the post-regulation count is more than 30% lower than the baseline count, the answer is YES. If the reduction is 30% or less (including no reduction or an increase), the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGlobal AI Regulation Summit — The Innovation-Safety Pendulum Swings HardArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — The Innovation-Safety Pendulum
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Count the number of frontier AI model releases (defined as new foundation models, not updates or fine-tunes, publicly announced by OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, and Meta) in the 24-month period from March 2026 to February 2028 and compare to the 24-month baseline from January 2024 to December 2025. If the post-regulation count is more than 30% lower than the baseline count, the answer is YES. If the reduction is 30% or less (including no reduction or an increase), the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Global AI Regulation Summit — The Innovation-Safety Pendulum Swings Hard
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai/google
Referenced knowledge
entity:openaientity:google
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Pressure — US-Japan Alliance Forges New DefensOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: A formal announcement by the US and Japanese governments of either: (1) new bilateral defense cooperation guidelines that explicitly reference Taiwan or Taiwan Strait contingencies as a planning objective, or (2) a new bilateral agreement, memorandum of understanding, or joint statement from the Security Consultative Committee (2+2) that establishes specific operational coordination mechanisms for Taiwan-related scenarios. The reference must be explicit — implicit or background briefing references do not qualify. The announcement must occur by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 18%18% of prediction market capital bets on NOTaiwan Strait Pressure — US-Japan Alliance Forges New Defense ArchitectureArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final18%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Pressure — US-Japan Alliance Forges New Defens
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: A formal announcement by the US and Japanese governments of either: (1) new bilateral defense cooperation guidelines that explicitly reference Taiwan or Taiwan Strait contingencies as a planning objective, or (2) a new bilateral agreement, memorandum of understanding, or joint statement from the Security Consultative Committee (2+2) that establishes specific operational coordination mechanisms for Taiwan-related scenarios. The reference must be explicit — implicit or background briefing references do not qualify. The announcement must occur by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 18%
18% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Taiwan Strait Pressure — US-Japan Alliance Forges New Defense Architecture
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final18%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
18%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=taiwan/japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:taiwanentity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Unification by 2026? — The Structural Reasons BehindOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the People's Liberation Army of China initiates an attack using live ammunition, conducts a maritime blockade, or launches a landing operation against Taiwan Island, Kinmen Island, Matsu Island, Penghu Islands, or their territorial waters/airspace. NO if military exercises (including live-fire drills) are conducted outside Taiwan's territorial waters/airspace. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Unification by 2026? — The Structural Reasons Behind EscalationTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Unification by 2026? — The Structural Reasons Behind
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the People's Liberation Army of China initiates an attack using live ammunition, conducts a maritime blockade, or launches a landing operation against Taiwan Island, Kinmen Island, Matsu Island, Penghu Islands, or their territorial waters/airspace. NO if military exercises (including live-fire drills) are conducted outside Taiwan's territorial waters/airspace. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Unification by 2026? — The Structural Reasons Behind Escalation
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan 2026 Deadline — China's Unification Timeline and theOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by December 31, 2026, China's military forces have (a) declared and enforced a naval exclusion zone around Taiwan, (b) conducted kinetic strikes against Taiwanese military or civilian infrastructure, or (c) initiated an amphibious landing operation on Taiwan or its outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Pratas). Resolved NO if none of these events occur. Routine military exercises without actual enforcement of a blockade or kinetic strikes do not count. → ❌ Missed❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%7% of prediction market capital bets on NOTaiwan 2026 Deadline — China's Unification Timeline and the Escalation SpiralArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan 2026 Deadline — China's Unification Timeline and the
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by December 31, 2026, China's military forces have (a) declared and enforced a naval exclusion zone around Taiwan, (b) conducted kinetic strikes against Taiwanese military or civilian infrastructure, or (c) initiated an amphibious landing operation on Taiwan or its outlying islands (Kinmen, Matsu, Pratas). Resolved NO if none of these events occur. Routine military exercises without actual enforcement of a blockade or kinetic strikes do not count. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%
7% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Taiwan 2026 Deadline — China's Unification Timeline and the Escalation Spiral
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin to $200K? — Institutional Investors Reshape CryptoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) on CoinMarketCap is $200,000 or more as of March 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC; NO if less. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin to $200K? — Institutional Investors Reshape CryptoTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin to $200K? — Institutional Investors Reshape Crypto
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) on CoinMarketCap is $200,000 or more as of March 31, 2026, 23:59 UTC; NO if less. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin to $200K? — Institutional Investors Reshape Crypto
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 4102902e320e (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Bitcoin's spot price exceed $200,000 USD on any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) at any point before 2026-03-31?Key Event: Bitcoin's $200K Thesis — Institutional Capital Rewires the COur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) must trade at or above $200,000.00 on at least one of the following exchanges — Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken — for at least one verified trade, as recorded by the exchange's public trade history, at any point on or before March 31, 2026 UTC. A brief wick above $200,000 counts as YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $200K Thesis — Institutional Capital Rewires the Crypto Market StructureArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Bitcoin's spot price exceed $200,000 USD on any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) at any point before 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Bitcoin's $200K Thesis — Institutional Capital Rewires the C
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) must trade at or above $200,000.00 on at least one of the following exchanges — Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken — for at least one verified trade, as recorded by the exchange's public trade history, at any point on or before March 31, 2026 UTC. A brief wick above $200,000 counts as YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $200K Thesis — Institutional Capital Rewires the Crypto Market Structure
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 865810069d68 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: PM Takaichi's 'Existential Crisis' Remark — US-Japan AlliancOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Can official government unified views on the criteria for recognizing a "Situation Threatening Japan's Survival" specifically envisaging a Taiwan Strait contingency be confirmed in Diet records or the official gazette, based on documents or answers presented by the Japanese government (Chief Cabinet Secretary or Prime Minister) in the Diet (plenary session or committee of the House of Representatives or House of Councillors)? A specific mention of criteria envisaging a Taiwan contingency is required, not just general explanations of a "Situation Threatening Japan's Survival." → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPM Takaichi's 'Existential Crisis' Remark — US-Japan Alliance ShiftArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: PM Takaichi's 'Existential Crisis' Remark — US-Japan Allianc
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Can official government unified views on the criteria for recognizing a "Situation Threatening Japan's Survival" specifically envisaging a Taiwan Strait contingency be confirmed in Diet records or the official gazette, based on documents or answers presented by the Japanese government (Chief Cabinet Secretary or Prime Minister) in the Diet (plenary session or committee of the House of Representatives or House of Councillors)? A specific mention of criteria envisaging a Taiwan contingency is required, not just general explanations of a "Situation Threatening Japan's Survival." → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
PM Takaichi's 'Existential Crisis' Remark — US-Japan Alliance Shift
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=taiwan/japan/xi-jinping
Referenced knowledge
entity:taiwanentity:japanentity:xi-jinping
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravitational Pull ReshapOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Measured by CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko daily closing market capitalization figures. If Ethereum's market cap exceeds Bitcoin's market cap on any single day before December 31, 2027 (inclusive), the answer is YES. If Ethereum's market cap never exceeds Bitcoin's during this period, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOEthereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravitational Pull Reshaping Crypto CapitalArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravitational Pull Reshap
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Measured by CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko daily closing market capitalization figures. If Ethereum's market cap exceeds Bitcoin's market cap on any single day before December 31, 2027 (inclusive), the answer is YES. If Ethereum's market cap never exceeds Bitcoin's during this period, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravitational Pull Reshaping Crypto Capital
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin/ethereum/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoinentity:ethereumentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6's Multimodal Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for CreaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: GPT-6 (and its successors within the GPT-6 model family) must hold more than 40% of the enterprise AI platform market as measured by revenue share in credible industry analyst reports (Gartner, IDC, or Forrester) published by January 2028 covering the full year 2027. 'Enterprise AI platform market' is defined as revenue from foundation model API services and enterprise AI platform subscriptions, excluding consumer-only products. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6's Multimodal Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Creative AIArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6's Multimodal Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Crea
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: GPT-6 (and its successors within the GPT-6 model family) must hold more than 40% of the enterprise AI platform market as measured by revenue share in credible industry analyst reports (Gartner, IDC, or Forrester) published by January 2028 covering the full year 2027. 'Enterprise AI platform market' is defined as revenue from foundation model API services and enterprise AI platform subscriptions, excluding consumer-only products. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6's Multimodal Leap — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Creative AI
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO officially announce new troop deployments to Eastern Europe by 2026-03-24?Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests NOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 96% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO or any individual NATO member state officially announces deployment of additional military forces (troops, equipment, or weapons systems) to Eastern European NATO member states (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, or others) in direct response to Russia's tactical nuclear weapon deployment. The announcement must come from an official government or NATO spokesperson, be publicly reported by major wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP), and specify new deployments beyond pre-existing rotation schedules. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red LinesArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO officially announce new troop deployments to Eastern Europe by 2026-03-24?
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests N
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 96% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO or any individual NATO member state officially announces deployment of additional military forces (troops, equipment, or weapons systems) to Eastern European NATO member states (Poland, Romania, Baltic states, or others) in direct response to Russia's tactical nuclear weapon deployment. The announcement must come from an official government or NATO spokesperson, be publicly reported by major wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP), and specify new deployments beyond pre-existing rotation schedules. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red Lines
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 96.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 3a0f87415681 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Regulation — The Backlash Pendulum Swings Toward COur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Measured by total VC investment in AI startups across OECD member nations for calendar year 2028, as reported by PitchBook, CB Insights, or equivalent industry-standard data source. If the total falls below $70 billion USD (in 2025 constant dollars), the answer is YES. If it equals or exceeds $70 billion, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Regulation — The Backlash Pendulum Swings Toward ControlArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Regulation — The Backlash Pendulum Swings Toward C
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Measured by total VC investment in AI startups across OECD member nations for calendar year 2028, as reported by PitchBook, CB Insights, or equivalent industry-standard data source. If the total falls below $70 billion USD (in 2025 constant dollars), the answer is YES. If it equals or exceeds $70 billion, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Regulation — The Backlash Pendulum Swings Toward Control
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Russia deploy additional military units to its western border (Kaliningrad, Pskov, or Leningrad military districts) by 2026-03-28 in response to NATO's Baltic troop deployment?Key Event: NATO's Baltic Buildup — The Escalation Spiral That RewritesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Credible open-source intelligence (satellite imagery from commercial providers, official Russian MOD announcements, or reporting by at least two major international news agencies) confirms the redeployment or forward staging of Russian military units — defined as battalion-sized or larger formations — to the Kaliningrad exclave, Pskov Oblast, or Leningrad Oblast between March 21 and March 28, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNATO's Baltic Buildup — The Escalation Spiral That Rewrites European SecurityArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Russia deploy additional military units to its western border (Kaliningrad, Pskov, or Leningrad military districts) by 2026-03-28 in response to NATO's Baltic troop deployment?
Key Event: NATO's Baltic Buildup — The Escalation Spiral That Rewrites
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Credible open-source intelligence (satellite imagery from commercial providers, official Russian MOD announcements, or reporting by at least two major international news agencies) confirms the redeployment or forward staging of Russian military units — defined as battalion-sized or larger formations — to the Kaliningrad exclave, Pskov Oblast, or Leningrad Oblast between March 21 and March 28, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
NATO's Baltic Buildup — The Escalation Spiral That Rewrites European Security
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 0c163f023d28 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China file a formal diplomatic protest (including summoning the US ambassador or issuing an official MFA statement of condemnation) regarding the Taiwan Strait drone interception by 2026-03-23?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral NeitheOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic protest is confirmed if China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues an official statement of protest or condemnation specifically referencing the drone interception, OR the US ambassador to China is formally summoned to receive a protest, OR China's UN mission files a formal complaint. Informal spokesperson comments at routine press briefings alone do not qualify unless they include explicit language of 'formal protest' or 'solemn representation' . → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China file a formal diplomatic protest (including summoning the US ambassador or issuing an official MFA statement of condemnation) regarding the Taiwan Strait drone interception by 2026-03-23?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neithe
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic protest is confirmed if China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues an official statement of protest or condemnation specifically referencing the drone interception, OR the US ambassador to China is formally summoned to receive a protest, OR China's UN mission files a formal complaint. Informal spokesperson comments at routine press briefings alone do not qualify unless they include explicit language of 'formal protest' or 'solemn representation' . → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 419cbd2bc860 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Safety Standards — The Regulatory Ratchet That WilOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Formal adoption is defined as a country either (1) signing the binding framework agreement, or (2) enacting domestic legislation explicitly implementing equivalent standards as recognized by the EU-US AI Safety Board's mutual recognition mechanism. Observer status, voluntary endorsements, or non-binding pledges do not count. The count must exceed 50 sovereign nations (not including the EU as a single entity — individual EU member states count separately) by December 31, 2028. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Safety Standards — The Regulatory Ratchet That Will Reshape the IndustryArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final6%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Safety Standards — The Regulatory Ratchet That Wil
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Formal adoption is defined as a country either (1) signing the binding framework agreement, or (2) enacting domestic legislation explicitly implementing equivalent standards as recognized by the EU-US AI Safety Board's mutual recognition mechanism. Observer status, voluntary endorsements, or non-binding pledges do not count. The count must exceed 50 sovereign nations (not including the EU as a single entity — individual EU member states count separately) by December 31, 2028. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Safety Standards — The Regulatory Ratchet That Will Reshape the Industry
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final6%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
6%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran Ground Troops — Imperial Overreach Meets Escalation SpiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from the U.S. Department of Defense or credible news sources that U.S. military ground combat forces (not limited to special operations advisors in neighboring countries) have been deployed onto Iranian sovereign territory in an operational capacity. This excludes naval forces in international waters and air operations. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Ground Troops — Imperial Overreach Meets Escalation SpiralArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final30%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran Ground Troops — Imperial Overreach Meets Escalation Spi
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from the U.S. Department of Defense or credible news sources that U.S. military ground combat forces (not limited to special operations advisors in neighboring countries) have been deployed onto Iranian sovereign territory in an operational capacity. This excludes naval forces in international waters and air operations. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Ground Troops — Imperial Overreach Meets Escalation Spiral
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final30%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
30%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iranian Oil Sanctions Lifted — Pressure Politics Collide witOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if the U.S. Treasury issues a new or extended authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil (beyond the initial short-term authorization announced in March 2026) at any point before July 1, 2026. Resolved NO if the initial authorization expires without renewal or expansion. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIranian Oil Sanctions Lifted — Pressure Politics Collide with Energy RealpolitikArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final4%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iranian Oil Sanctions Lifted — Pressure Politics Collide wit
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if the U.S. Treasury issues a new or extended authorization permitting the sale of Iranian oil (beyond the initial short-term authorization announced in March 2026) at any point before July 1, 2026. Resolved NO if the initial authorization expires without renewal or expansion. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iranian Oil Sanctions Lifted — Pressure Politics Collide with Energy Realpolitik
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final4%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
4%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 96.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites tOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's spot price on the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) must be at or above $100,000.00 USD at the daily close (00:00 UTC) on June 30, 2026. A single data point at the daily close is used — intraday wicks below $100,000 followed by recovery do not count as failure. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Crypto CycleArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites t
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's spot price on the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) must be at or above $100,000.00 USD at the daily close (00:00 UTC) on June 30, 2026. A single data point at the daily close is used — intraday wicks below $100,000 followed by recovery do not count as failure. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Crypto Cycle
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Eases Iran Oil Sanctions Mid-War — Escalation Meets EnergOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A 'significant shipping disruption' is defined as: (1) Iran officially announcing closure of the strait, OR (2) confirmed mine detonation or military attack on a commercial vessel transiting the strait, OR (3) major shipping insurers declaring the strait a war-risk zone causing measurable reduction in transit volume (>20% decline week-over-week). Must be confirmed by Lloyd's of London war risk assessment, US CENTCOM statement, or major wire service (Reuters/AP) reporting. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Eases Iran Oil Sanctions Mid-War — Escalation Meets Energy RealpolitikArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final19%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Eases Iran Oil Sanctions Mid-War — Escalation Meets Energ
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A 'significant shipping disruption' is defined as: (1) Iran officially announcing closure of the strait, OR (2) confirmed mine detonation or military attack on a commercial vessel transiting the strait, OR (3) major shipping insurers declaring the strait a war-risk zone causing measurable reduction in transit volume (>20% decline week-over-week). Must be confirmed by Lloyd's of London war risk assessment, US CENTCOM statement, or major wire service (Reuters/AP) reporting. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Eases Iran Oil Sanctions Mid-War — Escalation Meets Energy Realpolitik
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final19%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
19%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Russia deploy additional military forces (battalion-level or larger, approximately 500+ troops) to its Western Military District or Kaliningrad Oblast by April 4, 2026, in response to NATO's Baltic troop deployment?Key Event: NATO's Baltic Buildup — Escalation Spiral Could Redraw EuropOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Verifiable through official Russian Ministry of Defense announcements, satellite imagery analysis by open-source intelligence organizations (e.g., Janes, ISW, Maxar), or credible Western intelligence assessments reported by at least two major news agencies confirming battalion-level or larger Russian force movements to the Western Military District or Kaliningrad after March 21, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNATO's Baltic Buildup — Escalation Spiral Could Redraw Europe's Security MapArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Russia deploy additional military forces (battalion-level or larger, approximately 500+ troops) to its Western Military District or Kaliningrad Oblast by April 4, 2026, in response to NATO's Baltic troop deployment?
Key Event: NATO's Baltic Buildup — Escalation Spiral Could Redraw Europ
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verifiable through official Russian Ministry of Defense announcements, satellite imagery analysis by open-source intelligence organizations (e.g., Janes, ISW, Maxar), or credible Western intelligence assessments reported by at least two major news agencies confirming battalion-level or larger Russian force movements to the Western Military District or Kaliningrad after March 21, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
NATO's Baltic Buildup — Escalation Spiral Could Redraw Europe's Security Map
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/xi-jinping/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:xi-jinpingentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: b1493a97fef7 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China file a formal diplomatic protest (demarche or official statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs) against the United States regarding the Taiwan Strait drone interception by 2026-03-23?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — Escalation Spiral Neither SiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues an official statement, summons the US ambassador or charge d'affaires, or delivers a formal diplomatic note protesting the US drone operation near the Taiwan Strait. Routine spokesperson comments at daily press briefings count only if they include explicit language of formal protest or demand for cessation of operations. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Intercept — Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China file a formal diplomatic protest (demarche or official statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs) against the United States regarding the Taiwan Strait drone interception by 2026-03-23?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — Escalation Spiral Neither Si
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues an official statement, summons the US ambassador or charge d'affaires, or delivers a formal diplomatic note protesting the US drone operation near the Taiwan Strait. Routine spokesperson comments at daily press briefings count only if they include explicit language of formal protest or demand for cessation of operations. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 5a74a0c4e129 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Safety Standards — The Regulatory Ratchet ReshapinOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Count of sovereign nations that have formally ratified or legislatively adopted the binding AI safety framework established at the 2026 Global AI Regulation Summit, as tracked by the OECD AI Policy Observatory or the proposed International AI Safety Board registry. 'Formal adoption' means ratification, implementing legislation, or executive order with binding force—not merely signing a declaration of intent. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Safety Standards — The Regulatory Ratchet Reshaping InnovationArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final6%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Safety Standards — The Regulatory Ratchet Reshapin
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Count of sovereign nations that have formally ratified or legislatively adopted the binding AI safety framework established at the 2026 Global AI Regulation Summit, as tracked by the OECD AI Policy Observatory or the proposed International AI Safety Board registry. 'Formal adoption' means ratification, implementing legislation, or executive order with binding force—not merely signing a declaration of intent. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Safety Standards — The Regulatory Ratchet Reshaping Innovation
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final6%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
6%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran Ground Troops — Escalation Rewrites U.S. Middle East DoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed by official U.S. Department of Defense announcement, credible media reports citing named officials, or verified imagery/evidence of U.S. military ground forces operating inside internationally recognized Iranian territory (including Iranian islands). Advisory or liaison personnel at existing allied bases do not count. Naval vessels in international waters of the Strait do not count. The deployment must involve personnel on Iranian land. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Ground Troops — Escalation Rewrites U.S. Middle East DoctrineArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final30%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran Ground Troops — Escalation Rewrites U.S. Middle East Do
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed by official U.S. Department of Defense announcement, credible media reports citing named officials, or verified imagery/evidence of U.S. military ground forces operating inside internationally recognized Iranian territory (including Iranian islands). Advisory or liaison personnel at existing allied bases do not count. Naval vessels in international waters of the Strait do not count. The deployment must involve personnel on Iranian land. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Ground Troops — Escalation Rewrites U.S. Middle East Doctrine
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final30%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
30%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iranian Oil Sanctions Relief — Maximum Pressure Meets MaximuOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 87% confidence➡ Verdict: Verifiable through U.S. Treasury OFAC public notices and Federal Register entries. A new general license, specific license, or expanded authorization related to Iranian oil sales or transport issued after the initial March 2026 authorization counts as YES. Simple administrative extensions of the identical authorization without expansion also count. Revocation or non-renewal counts as NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIranian Oil Sanctions Relief — Maximum Pressure Meets Maximum PriceArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final56%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iranian Oil Sanctions Relief — Maximum Pressure Meets Maximu
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 87% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verifiable through U.S. Treasury OFAC public notices and Federal Register entries. A new general license, specific license, or expanded authorization related to Iranian oil sales or transport issued after the initial March 2026 authorization counts as YES. Simple administrative extensions of the identical authorization without expansion also count. Revocation or non-renewal counts as NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iranian Oil Sanctions Relief — Maximum Pressure Meets Maximum Price
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final56%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
56%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/xi-jinping
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:xi-jinping
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Eases Iran Oil Sanctions — Escalation Meets Energy RealpoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Significant disruption is defined as: official maritime warnings closing the strait to commercial traffic, OR Lloyd's of London / major insurers declaring the strait a war-risk exclusion zone, OR verified satellite/AIS data showing a 25% or greater reduction in daily tanker transits through the strait sustained for 72+ hours, as reported by major maritime tracking services (MarineTraffic, Kpler, or equivalent). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Eases Iran Oil Sanctions — Escalation Meets Energy RealpolitikArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final19%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Eases Iran Oil Sanctions — Escalation Meets Energy Realpo
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Significant disruption is defined as: official maritime warnings closing the strait to commercial traffic, OR Lloyd's of London / major insurers declaring the strait a war-risk exclusion zone, OR verified satellite/AIS data showing a 25% or greater reduction in daily tanker transits through the strait sustained for 72+ hours, as reported by major maritime tracking services (MarineTraffic, Kpler, or equivalent). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Eases Iran Oil Sanctions — Escalation Meets Energy Realpolitik
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final19%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
19%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO announce increased troop deployments to Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltics, or Romania) by 2026-04-05 in direct response to Russia's tactical nuclear deployment?Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Tests NATO's ROur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO or any individual NATO member state officially announces new or augmented troop deployments (beyond pre-existing rotation schedules) to Poland, the Baltic states, or Romania, explicitly referencing Russia's tactical nuclear deployment as the reason or context. The announcement must come from an official government or NATO source and describe concrete military movements, not merely rhetorical condemnation. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Tests NATO's Red LinesArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO announce increased troop deployments to Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltics, or Romania) by 2026-04-05 in direct response to Russia's tactical nuclear deployment?
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Tests NATO's R
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO or any individual NATO member state officially announces new or augmented troop deployments (beyond pre-existing rotation schedules) to Poland, the Baltic states, or Romania, explicitly referencing Russia's tactical nuclear deployment as the reason or context. The announcement must come from an official government or NATO source and describe concrete military movements, not merely rhetorical condemnation. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Tests NATO's Red Lines
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 1c864ae8273e (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — Escalation SpiralOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed by US Department of Defense press release, official Pentagon statement, or credible multiple independent media reports (Reuters, AP, AFP) that a US Navy warship or military aircraft conducted a transit of the Taiwan Strait explicitly linked to or occurring within 30 days of the March 2026 drone intercept. Routine scheduled transits that are not characterized as a response do not count unless they involve demonstrably elevated force posture (carrier strike group, multi-ship formation, or joint allied transit). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Intercept — Escalation SpiralArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — Escalation Spiral
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed by US Department of Defense press release, official Pentagon statement, or credible multiple independent media reports (Reuters, AP, AFP) that a US Navy warship or military aircraft conducted a transit of the Taiwan Strait explicitly linked to or occurring within 30 days of the March 2026 drone intercept. Routine scheduled transits that are not characterized as a response do not count unless they involve demonstrably elevated force posture (carrier strike group, multi-ship formation, or joint allied transit). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — Escalation Spiral
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 and Reasoning — AI's High-Skill Job DisruptionOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: An independent evaluation organization (LMSYS, SEAL, Epoch AI, or equivalent academic/research institution) publishes a peer-reviewed or publicly verifiable benchmark result showing GPT-6 scoring above 90.0% accuracy on the GPQA Diamond benchmark using standard evaluation methodology, on or before July 1, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 and Reasoning — AI's High-Skill Job DisruptionArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final26%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 and Reasoning — AI's High-Skill Job Disruption
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: An independent evaluation organization (LMSYS, SEAL, Epoch AI, or equivalent academic/research institution) publishes a peer-reviewed or publicly verifiable benchmark result showing GPT-6 scoring above 90.0% accuracy on the GPQA Diamond benchmark using standard evaluation methodology, on or before July 1, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 and Reasoning — AI's High-Skill Job Disruption
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final26%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
26%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran-Israel Cyber Escalation — Shadow War in the Middle EastOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A direct military strike is defined as the launch of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or armed drones from Iranian territory or Iranian military assets targeting Israeli sovereign territory. Proxy attacks by Hezbollah, Houthis, or other non-state actors do NOT count. The strike must be publicly attributable to Iran through official Iranian acknowledgment or consensus assessment by at least three major Western intelligence agencies. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Israel Cyber Escalation — Shadow War in the Middle EastArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran-Israel Cyber Escalation — Shadow War in the Middle East
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A direct military strike is defined as the launch of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or armed drones from Iranian territory or Iranian military assets targeting Israeli sovereign territory. Proxy attacks by Hezbollah, Houthis, or other non-state actors do NOT count. The strike must be publicly attributable to Iran through official Iranian acknowledgment or consensus assessment by at least three major Western intelligence agencies. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Israel Cyber Escalation — Shadow War in the Middle East
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Geneva AI Summit — Tech Governance Coordination FailureOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A binding framework is defined as a signed international agreement or treaty that (1) imposes mandatory safety evaluation or testing requirements on frontier AI models above a defined capability threshold, (2) includes a compliance verification or enforcement mechanism, and (3) is signed by at least 30 sovereign nations by September 30, 2026. A non-binding declaration, set of principles, or voluntary commitment framework does not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGeneva AI Summit — Tech Governance Coordination FailureArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final26%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Geneva AI Summit — Tech Governance Coordination Failure
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A binding framework is defined as a signed international agreement or treaty that (1) imposes mandatory safety evaluation or testing requirements on frontier AI models above a defined capability threshold, (2) includes a compliance verification or enforcement mechanism, and (3) is signed by at least 30 sovereign nations by September 30, 2026. A non-binding declaration, set of principles, or voluntary commitment framework does not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Geneva AI Summit — Tech Governance Coordination Failure
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final26%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
26%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin to Exceed ¥15 Million? — Institutional Investment ReOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if, as of 23:59 (Japan time) on March 31, 2026, the daily closing price (UTC+9) of BTC/JPY exceeds 15,000,000 yen by at least 1 yen on at least one day in March at any of the major Japanese cryptocurrency exchanges bitFlyer, Coincheck, or GMO Coin. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin to Exceed ¥15 Million? — Institutional Investment Reshapes Crypto MarketTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin to Exceed ¥15 Million? — Institutional Investment Re
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if, as of 23:59 (Japan time) on March 31, 2026, the daily closing price (UTC+9) of BTC/JPY exceeds 15,000,000 yen by at least 1 yen on at least one day in March at any of the major Japanese cryptocurrency exchanges bitFlyer, Coincheck, or GMO Coin. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin to Exceed ¥15 Million? — Institutional Investment Reshapes Crypto Market
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Bitcoin's price exceed ¥15,000,000 (fifteen million yen) per BTC at any point before 2026-03-31?Key Event: Bitcoin's Institutional Stampede — When Wall Street RewritesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's spot price on any major exchange (Bitflyer, Coincheck, or Binance JPY pair) must reach or exceed ¥15,000,000 per BTC at any point (including intraday) on or before March 31, 2026. The USD/JPY exchange rate at the time of the BTC price is used for the JPY-denominated figure. A single touch above ¥15 million counts as YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's Institutional Stampede — When Wall Street Rewrites Crypto's Power MapArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Bitcoin's price exceed ¥15,000,000 (fifteen million yen) per BTC at any point before 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Bitcoin's Institutional Stampede — When Wall Street Rewrites
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's spot price on any major exchange (Bitflyer, Coincheck, or Binance JPY pair) must reach or exceed ¥15,000,000 per BTC at any point (including intraday) on or before March 31, 2026. The USD/JPY exchange rate at the time of the BTC price is used for the JPY-denominated figure. A single touch above ¥15 million counts as YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's Institutional Stampede — When Wall Street Rewrites Crypto's Power Map
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: 50bc14564686 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reports from at least two credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP) or official government statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense confirming that US and Chinese military personnel or platforms directly exchanged fire (including warning shots or weapons discharge from autonomous systems) in the South China Sea between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. Coast guard confrontations using water cannons do not qualify — the incident must involve military (not law enforcement) forces and kinetic weapons. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reports from at least two credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP) or official government statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense confirming that US and Chinese military personnel or platforms directly exchanged fire (including warning shots or weapons discharge from autonomous systems) in the South China Sea between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. Coast guard confrontations using water cannons do not qualify — the incident must involve military (not law enforcement) forces and kinetic weapons. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: An incident is confirmed by official statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense acknowledging physical contact, weapons discharge, or casualties involving military assets of both nations in the South China Sea (defined as waters south of the Taiwan Strait, east of Vietnam, west of the Philippines, and north of the Natuna Sea) between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: An incident is confirmed by official statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense acknowledging physical contact, weapons discharge, or casualties involving military assets of both nations in the South China Sea (defined as waters south of the Taiwan Strait, east of Vietnam, west of the Philippines, and north of the Natuna Sea) between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Crisis 2026 — Escalation Tests Limits of Post-Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if military engagement, such as gunfire, missile launches, vessel collisions, or aircraft shootdowns, between the Chinese People's Liberation Army and the Taiwanese or US military resulting in at least one casualty on either side occurs in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters (including Taiwan's ADIZ), and is confirmed by government announcements or verification by major international news organizations. Even if casualties occur due to an accidental incident, if it is attributable to military action, the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Crisis 2026 — Escalation Tests Limits of Post-War OrderTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Crisis 2026 — Escalation Tests Limits of Post-
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if military engagement, such as gunfire, missile launches, vessel collisions, or aircraft shootdowns, between the Chinese People's Liberation Army and the Taiwanese or US military resulting in at least one casualty on either side occurs in the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters (including Taiwan's ADIZ), and is confirmed by government announcements or verification by major international news organizations. Even if casualties occur due to an accidental incident, if it is attributable to military action, the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Crisis 2026 — Escalation Tests Limits of Post-War Order
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Crisis — Escalation Spiral Tests US-ChinOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A 'formal military standoff' is defined as: (1) The US deploys at least one additional carrier strike group to the Western Pacific specifically in response to this incident, AND (2) China announces or conducts military exercises in the Taiwan Strait area explicitly linked to the drone incident, AND (3) both deployments are sustained for at least 7 consecutive days with official government acknowledgment. All three conditions must be met by April 22, 2026 for a YES resolution. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Crisis — Escalation Spiral Tests US-China Red LinesArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Crisis — Escalation Spiral Tests US-Chin
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A 'formal military standoff' is defined as: (1) The US deploys at least one additional carrier strike group to the Western Pacific specifically in response to this incident, AND (2) China announces or conducts military exercises in the Taiwan Strait area explicitly linked to the drone incident, AND (3) both deployments are sustained for at least 7 consecutive days with official government acknowledgment. All three conditions must be met by April 22, 2026 for a YES resolution. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Crisis — Escalation Spiral Tests US-China Red Lines
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO publicly authorize or acknowledge offensive cyber operations against Russian targets in retaliation for the February 2026 Kyiv grid attack by 2026-04-08?Key Event: Kyiv Grid Attack — Hybrid Warfare Crosses the Cyber RubiconOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official NATO communiqué, press statement, or on-the-record statement by the NATO Secretary General or a NATO spokesperson explicitly confirming that the alliance has authorized or conducted offensive cyber operations against Russian targets in response to the February 2026 Kyiv cyberattack. Unattributed reports, anonymous leaks, or unilateral national actions (e.g., US Cyber Command operations without NATO authorization) do not count. The statement must be issued on or before April 8, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisKyiv Grid Attack — Hybrid Warfare Crosses the Cyber RubiconArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO publicly authorize or acknowledge offensive cyber operations against Russian targets in retaliation for the February 2026 Kyiv grid attack by 2026-04-08?
Key Event: Kyiv Grid Attack — Hybrid Warfare Crosses the Cyber Rubicon
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official NATO communiqué, press statement, or on-the-record statement by the NATO Secretary General or a NATO spokesperson explicitly confirming that the alliance has authorized or conducted offensive cyber operations against Russian targets in response to the February 2026 Kyiv cyberattack. Unattributed reports, anonymous leaks, or unilateral national actions (e.g., US Cyber Command operations without NATO authorization) do not count. The statement must be issued on or before April 8, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Kyiv Grid Attack — Hybrid Warfare Crosses the Cyber Rubicon
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 56d8d717f9bd (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Diego Garcia Strike & Exit Signals — Iran Tests Reach as USOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: A ceasefire is confirmed if either: (1) a formal ceasefire agreement is announced by both governments, OR (2) both sides publicly acknowledge an informal cessation of hostilities and no US or Iranian direct military strikes against each other's assets have occurred for 30 consecutive days before June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisDiego Garcia Strike & Exit Signals — Iran Tests Reach as US Seeks Off-RampArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final35%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Diego Garcia Strike & Exit Signals — Iran Tests Reach as US
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: A ceasefire is confirmed if either: (1) a formal ceasefire agreement is announced by both governments, OR (2) both sides publicly acknowledge an informal cessation of hostilities and no US or Iranian direct military strikes against each other's assets have occurred for 30 consecutive days before June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Diego Garcia Strike & Exit Signals — Iran Tests Reach as US Seeks Off-Ramp
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final35%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
35%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/xi-jinping
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:xi-jinping
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran Strikes and Gas Prices — The Shock Doctrine of 'Short-TOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: AAA national average regular gasoline price as reported by GasBuddy or EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices exceeds $4.00/gallon at any point before or on June 1, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Strikes and Gas Prices — The Shock Doctrine of 'Short-Term Pain'Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final11%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran Strikes and Gas Prices — The Shock Doctrine of 'Short-T
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: AAA national average regular gasoline price as reported by GasBuddy or EIA Weekly Retail Gasoline and Diesel Prices exceeds $4.00/gallon at any point before or on June 1, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Strikes and Gas Prices — The Shock Doctrine of 'Short-Term Pain'
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final11%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
11%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-5 Launch — The Race to Monetize Reasoning Reshapes EnterOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Verifiable through enterprise AI adoption surveys (Gartner, IDC, Forrester) published in Q1 2027 tracking Fortune 500 AI deployment. 'Production deployment' means GPT-5 specifically (not GPT-4 or other models) is running in at least one business-critical workflow beyond testing or pilot phase. The threshold is 150+ of Fortune 500 companies (30%). → ❌ Missed❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-5 Launch — The Race to Monetize Reasoning Reshapes Enterprise AIArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-5 Launch — The Race to Monetize Reasoning Reshapes Enter
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verifiable through enterprise AI adoption surveys (Gartner, IDC, Forrester) published in Q1 2027 tracking Fortune 500 AI deployment. 'Production deployment' means GPT-5 specifically (not GPT-4 or other models) is running in at least one business-critical workflow beyond testing or pilot phase. The threshold is 150+ of Fortune 500 companies (30%). → ❌ Missed
❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-5 Launch — The Race to Monetize Reasoning Reshapes Enterprise AI
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin at $150K — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Rules ofOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, the Bitcoin spot price on CoinMarketCap's reference rate must be above $150,000.00 for the answer to be YES. Any price at or below $150,000.00 is NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOBitcoin at $150K — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Rules of Digital GoldArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin at $150K — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Rules of
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, the Bitcoin spot price on CoinMarketCap's reference rate must be above $150,000.00 for the answer to be YES. Any price at or below $150,000.00 is NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Bitcoin at $150K — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Rules of Digital Gold
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Ethereum's Layer-2 Scaling Triumph — The Infrastructure BetOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, the spot price of ETH/USD on CoinGecko (or CoinMarketCap as fallback) must be at or above $5,000.00 for the answer to be YES. If the price is below $5,000.00 at that timestamp, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOEthereum's Layer-2 Scaling Triumph — The Infrastructure Bet That Repriced ETHArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Ethereum's Layer-2 Scaling Triumph — The Infrastructure Bet
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, the spot price of ETH/USD on CoinGecko (or CoinMarketCap as fallback) must be at or above $5,000.00 for the answer to be YES. If the price is below $5,000.00 at that timestamp, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Ethereum's Layer-2 Scaling Triumph — The Infrastructure Bet That Repriced ETH
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Iran Military Clash — Mideast Order's Collapse PointOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Determined by the existence of a ceasefire agreement, truce agreement, or agreement on the cessation of military actions officially announced by both the US government and the Iranian government. Unilateral declarations of ceasefire or informal reductions in attacks will not be considered an agreement. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Iran Military Clash — Mideast Order's Collapse PointArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Iran Military Clash — Mideast Order's Collapse Point
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Determined by the existence of a ceasefire agreement, truce agreement, or agreement on the cessation of military actions officially announced by both the US government and the Iranian government. Unilateral declarations of ceasefire or informal reductions in attacks will not be considered an agreement. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Iran Military Clash — Mideast Order's Collapse Point
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's Budget Stalemate — Eroding System of Minority RuleOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Determine whether the FY2026 general account budget bill has been passed and enacted by the Diet (House of Councillors plenary session) by April 15, 2026, based on official gazette publication or government announcement. The enactment of only a provisional budget will be judged as "NO". → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's Budget Stalemate — Eroding System of Minority RuleArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's Budget Stalemate — Eroding System of Minority Rule
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Determine whether the FY2026 general account budget bill has been passed and enacted by the Diet (House of Councillors plenary session) by April 15, 2026, based on official gazette publication or government announcement. The enactment of only a provisional budget will be judged as "NO". → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's Budget Stalemate — Eroding System of Minority Rule
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 91.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 221e71f4716b (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Japan's FY2026 initial budget be enacted (passed by both houses of the Diet) by March 31, 2026?Key Event: Japan's Budget Impasse — Coalition Fragility Meets Fiscal DeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: The FY2026 general account budget bill is formally enacted (approved by the House of Councillors or automatically enacted 30 days after House of Representatives passage per Article 60 of the Constitution) on or before March 31, 2026. A provisional budget does not count as enactment of the initial budget. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's Budget Impasse — Coalition Fragility Meets Fiscal Deadline PressureArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Japan's FY2026 initial budget be enacted (passed by both houses of the Diet) by March 31, 2026?
Key Event: Japan's Budget Impasse — Coalition Fragility Meets Fiscal De
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: The FY2026 general account budget bill is formally enacted (approved by the House of Councillors or automatically enacted 30 days after House of Representatives passage per Article 60 of the Constitution) on or before March 31, 2026. A provisional budget does not count as enactment of the initial budget. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's Budget Impasse — Coalition Fragility Meets Fiscal Deadline Pressure
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: 0141844813ec (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Reunification by 2026 — Conflict SpiralOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if, by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, multiple major international media outlets (Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) report that the People's Liberation Army has conducted military operations against Taiwan proper or outlying islands under Taiwanese control, including artillery fire, missile attacks, landing operations, or naval blockade. Large-scale military exercises or incursions into the air defense identification zone are excluded. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Reunification by 2026 — Conflict SpiralTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Reunification by 2026 — Conflict Spiral
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if, by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, multiple major international media outlets (Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) report that the People's Liberation Army has conducted military operations against Taiwan proper or outlying islands under Taiwanese control, including artillery fire, missile attacks, landing operations, or naval blockade. Large-scale military exercises or incursions into the air defense identification zone are excluded. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Reunification by 2026 — Conflict Spiral
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed report from official US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or credible international media sources documenting an intentional or accidental discharge of weapons (including warning shots, missile launches, or directed energy weapons) between uniformed US and Chinese military personnel or platforms in the South China Sea. Coast guard incidents between China and the Philippines do not qualify unless US military forces are directly involved in the exchange. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed report from official US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or credible international media sources documenting an intentional or accidental discharge of weapons (including warning shots, missile launches, or directed energy weapons) between uniformed US and Chinese military personnel or platforms in the South China Sea. Coast guard incidents between China and the Philippines do not qualify unless US military forces are directly involved in the exchange. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping/ethereum / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingentity:ethereumdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: ODA Reform: Will Japan's Aid Strategy Transform in the Era oOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: Based on whether the advisory panel on strengthening ODA implementation system, established by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, officially publishes its final report or final recommendations by December 31, 2026. Interim reports are not included. Verifiable through official announcements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or media reports. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisODA Reform: Will Japan's Aid Strategy Transform in the Era of Economic Security?Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final14%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: ODA Reform: Will Japan's Aid Strategy Transform in the Era o
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: Based on whether the advisory panel on strengthening ODA implementation system, established by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, officially publishes its final report or final recommendations by December 31, 2026. Interim reports are not included. Verifiable through official announcements from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs or media reports. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
ODA Reform: Will Japan's Aid Strategy Transform in the Era of Economic Security?
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final14%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
14%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral NeitheOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal military standoff is defined as: (1) the US deploys additional naval or air assets specifically to the Taiwan Strait area in response to this incident, AND (2) China deploys additional military assets or announces military exercises in the Taiwan Strait area in response, AND (3) both governments publicly acknowledge the mutual buildup. All three conditions must be met and reported by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) by April 22, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neithe
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal military standoff is defined as: (1) the US deploys additional naval or air assets specifically to the Taiwan Strait area in response to this incident, AND (2) China deploys additional military assets or announces military exercises in the Taiwan Strait area in response, AND (3) both governments publicly acknowledge the mutual buildup. All three conditions must be met and reported by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) by April 22, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: DHS Funding Impasse — When Shutdown Politics Becomes InstituOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: A bill providing appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security for FY2026 — whether standalone, minibus, omnibus, or as part of a continuing resolution extending beyond 30 days — is signed into law by the President by May 1, 2026. Short-term CRs of less than 30 days do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisDHS Funding Impasse — When Shutdown Politics Becomes Institutional DecayArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final80%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: DHS Funding Impasse — When Shutdown Politics Becomes Institu
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: A bill providing appropriations for the Department of Homeland Security for FY2026 — whether standalone, minibus, omnibus, or as part of a continuing resolution extending beyond 30 days — is signed into law by the President by May 1, 2026. Short-term CRs of less than 30 days do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
DHS Funding Impasse — When Shutdown Politics Becomes Institutional Decay
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final80%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
80%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran War & Gas Prices — The Shock Doctrine of Energy RealignOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: AAA national average retail gasoline price (regular unleaded) exceeds $4.50 per gallon on any single day on or before June 30, 2026, as reported by AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran War & Gas Prices — The Shock Doctrine of Energy RealignmentArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran War & Gas Prices — The Shock Doctrine of Energy Realign
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: AAA national average retail gasoline price (regular unleaded) exceeds $4.50 per gallon on any single day on or before June 30, 2026, as reported by AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran War & Gas Prices — The Shock Doctrine of Energy Realignment
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Grok-3's Creative AI Push — The Winner-Takes-All Race for HuOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A major Hollywood studio (defined as one of Disney, Warner Bros., Universal, Sony Pictures, Paramount, or Lionsgate) publicly confirms that Grok-3 was used as a primary creative tool (not merely a supplementary or experimental tool) in the production of a film, series, or special that receives a commercial theatrical or major streaming platform release by December 31, 2026. 'Primary creative tool' means Grok-3 generated a substantial portion (>30%) of the visual art, music, or narrative content in the final released product, as confirmed by studio credits or public statements. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGrok-3's Creative AI Push — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Human ExpressionArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Grok-3's Creative AI Push — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Hu
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A major Hollywood studio (defined as one of Disney, Warner Bros., Universal, Sony Pictures, Paramount, or Lionsgate) publicly confirms that Grok-3 was used as a primary creative tool (not merely a supplementary or experimental tool) in the production of a film, series, or special that receives a commercial theatrical or major streaming platform release by December 31, 2026. 'Primary creative tool' means Grok-3 generated a substantial portion (>30%) of the visual art, music, or narrative content in the final released product, as confirmed by studio credits or public statements. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Grok-3's Creative AI Push — The Winner-Takes-All Race for Human Expression
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's Budget Gridlock — Coalition Weakness Meets Fiscal DeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: The FY2026 general account budget bill is formally enacted (seiritsu) — meaning approved by both the House of Representatives and House of Councillors, or passed by the House of Representatives and 30 days elapsed per constitutional automatic enactment — by April 15, 2026, as reported by official Diet records or major Japanese news agencies (NHK, Kyodo, Jiji). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's Budget Gridlock — Coalition Weakness Meets Fiscal Deadline PressureTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's Budget Gridlock — Coalition Weakness Meets Fiscal De
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: The FY2026 general account budget bill is formally enacted (seiritsu) — meaning approved by both the House of Representatives and House of Councillors, or passed by the House of Representatives and 30 days elapsed per constitutional automatic enactment — by April 15, 2026, as reported by official Diet records or major Japanese news agencies (NHK, Kyodo, Jiji). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's Budget Gridlock — Coalition Weakness Meets Fiscal Deadline Pressure
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 91.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Unification Deadline 2026: Gray Zone Conflict Risk AnOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Has a military engagement with officially confirmed fatalities occurred between the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the Taiwanese military (Republic of China Armed Forces) or the US military in the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters/airspace by December 31, 2026? Cyberattacks, economic sanctions, and military exercises alone do not qualify as "YES." Only if at least one government officially acknowledges the occurrence of a military conflict and fatalities due to combat are confirmed is it judged "YES." → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Unification Deadline 2026: Gray Zone Conflict Risk AnalysisTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Unification Deadline 2026: Gray Zone Conflict Risk An
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Has a military engagement with officially confirmed fatalities occurred between the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the Taiwanese military (Republic of China Armed Forces) or the US military in the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters/airspace by December 31, 2026? Cyberattacks, economic sanctions, and military exercises alone do not qualify as "YES." Only if at least one government officially acknowledges the occurrence of a military conflict and fatalities due to combat are confirmed is it judged "YES." → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Unification Deadline 2026: Gray Zone Conflict Risk Analysis
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: China's 2026 Taiwan Ultimatum — Escalation Reshapes AsiaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A verified, publicly reported exchange of fire (missiles, naval gunfire, aerial engagement, or equivalent kinetic action) between the military forces of the People's Republic of China and either the Republic of China (Taiwan) or the United States in or around the Taiwan Strait. Cyber attacks, sanctions, exercises, and gray-zone operations below the threshold of kinetic engagement do not count. The event must be confirmed by at least two credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP). → ❌ Missed❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%7% of prediction market capital bets on NOChina's 2026 Taiwan Ultimatum — Escalation Reshapes AsiaArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: China's 2026 Taiwan Ultimatum — Escalation Reshapes Asia
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A verified, publicly reported exchange of fire (missiles, naval gunfire, aerial engagement, or equivalent kinetic action) between the military forces of the People's Republic of China and either the Republic of China (Taiwan) or the United States in or around the Taiwan Strait. Cyber attacks, sanctions, exercises, and gray-zone operations below the threshold of kinetic engagement do not count. The event must be confirmed by at least two credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP). → ❌ Missed
❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%
7% of prediction market capital bets on NO
China's 2026 Taiwan Ultimatum — Escalation Reshapes Asia
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Kyiv's Grid Under Fire — Energy War Enters 2026Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Official NATO or member-state announcement of new troop deployments (not reaffirmation of existing rotations) to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, or Hungary specifically citing Ukraine security concerns. Must involve at least 1,000 additional personnel beyond March 2026 baseline levels. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisKyiv's Grid Under Fire — Energy War Enters 2026Article-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Kyiv's Grid Under Fire — Energy War Enters 2026
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Official NATO or member-state announcement of new troop deployments (not reaffirmation of existing rotations) to Poland, Romania, Slovakia, or Hungary specifically citing Ukraine security concerns. Must involve at least 1,000 additional personnel beyond March 2026 baseline levels. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Kyiv's Grid Under Fire — Energy War Enters 2026
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ukraine/xi-jinping/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:ukraineentity:xi-jinpingentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Brent crude oil prices exceed $91.50 per barrel (a 10%+ increase from the March 21, 2026 close of ~$83) at any point before April 6, 2026?Key Event: Iran-Saudi Proxy War in Yemen — Escalation Threatens GlobalOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil front-month futures contract closing price exceeds $91.50 per barrel on any trading day between March 23 and April 6, 2026, as reported by ICE Futures Europe. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Saudi Proxy War in Yemen — Escalation Threatens Global EnergyArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Brent crude oil prices exceed $91.50 per barrel (a 10%+ increase from the March 21, 2026 close of ~$83) at any point before April 6, 2026?
Key Event: Iran-Saudi Proxy War in Yemen — Escalation Threatens Global
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Brent crude oil front-month futures contract closing price exceeds $91.50 per barrel on any trading day between March 23 and April 6, 2026, as reported by ICE Futures Europe. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Saudi Proxy War in Yemen — Escalation Threatens Global Energy
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 0cf26ef0b00c (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AlphaThink & Quantum Simulation — AI's Leap Into Post-ClassiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A publicly reported security incident in which quantum computing capabilities developed or accelerated by AlphaThink are identified as a contributing factor in the compromise of production cryptographic systems (RSA, ECC, or equivalent) protecting real-world financial, government, or critical infrastructure data. Proof-of-concept academic demonstrations against reduced-parameter systems do not qualify. The incident must be acknowledged by the affected organization or confirmed by credible cybersecurity authorities (CISA, NCSC, ENISA, or equivalent). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAlphaThink & Quantum Simulation — AI's Leap Into Post-Classical PhysicsArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final47%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AlphaThink & Quantum Simulation — AI's Leap Into Post-Classi
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A publicly reported security incident in which quantum computing capabilities developed or accelerated by AlphaThink are identified as a contributing factor in the compromise of production cryptographic systems (RSA, ECC, or equivalent) protecting real-world financial, government, or critical infrastructure data. Proof-of-concept academic demonstrations against reduced-parameter systems do not qualify. The incident must be acknowledged by the affected organization or confirmed by credible cybersecurity authorities (CISA, NCSC, ENISA, or equivalent). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AlphaThink & Quantum Simulation — AI's Leap Into Post-Classical Physics
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final47%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
47%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 47.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.28
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=google
Referenced knowledge
entity:google
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AGI Safety Accord — Unenforceable Treaty Reshapes AIOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: The standards are considered 'holding' if: (1) the framework document has not been formally rescinded or replaced by a fundamentally different agreement; (2) at least 3 of the 5 listed jurisdictions have not formally withdrawn; and (3) the International AGI Safety Authority (or its successor body) continues to operate with a functioning secretariat. Mere non-compliance or criticism does not count as failure — only formal withdrawal or dissolution qualifies. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AGI Safety Accord — Unenforceable Treaty Reshapes AI PowerArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final14%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AGI Safety Accord — Unenforceable Treaty Reshapes AI
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: The standards are considered 'holding' if: (1) the framework document has not been formally rescinded or replaced by a fundamentally different agreement; (2) at least 3 of the 5 listed jurisdictions have not formally withdrawn; and (3) the International AGI Safety Authority (or its successor body) continues to operate with a functioning secretariat. Mere non-compliance or criticism does not count as failure — only formal withdrawal or dissolution qualifies. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AGI Safety Accord — Unenforceable Treaty Reshapes AI Power
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final14%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
14%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/japan/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:japanentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: EU Crypto Crackdown — Stablecoin Regulation Triggers MarketOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 69% confidence➡ Verdict: The total stablecoin market capitalization, as reported by CoinGecko's stablecoin category page on September 30, 2026, must equal or exceed the market cap recorded on the day immediately prior to the EU regulation announcement in February 2026. If the exact pre-announcement date is ambiguous, use February 1, 2026 as the baseline. A 'YES' outcome requires the market cap to fully recover (100% or more of the baseline). A 'NO' outcome means the market cap remains below the baseline on the deadline date. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisEU Crypto Crackdown — Stablecoin Regulation Triggers Market ContagionArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final93%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: EU Crypto Crackdown — Stablecoin Regulation Triggers Market
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 69% confidence
➡ Verdict: The total stablecoin market capitalization, as reported by CoinGecko's stablecoin category page on September 30, 2026, must equal or exceed the market cap recorded on the day immediately prior to the EU regulation announcement in February 2026. If the exact pre-announcement date is ambiguous, use February 1, 2026 as the baseline. A 'YES' outcome requires the market cap to fully recover (100% or more of the baseline). A 'NO' outcome means the market cap remains below the baseline on the deadline date. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
EU Crypto Crackdown — Stablecoin Regulation Triggers Market Contagion
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final93%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
93%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea's New Missile — Japan's Defense Doctrine at a BrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal public statement by the Japanese Prime Minister, Minister of Defense, or an official government document (white paper, policy announcement, or Diet testimony) explicitly declaring that Japan's counterstrike capability is operationally ready and deployable. Mere procurement announcements, delivery confirmations, or exercise participation do not qualify — the declaration must explicitly state operational readiness. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea's New Missile — Japan's Defense Doctrine at a Breaking PointArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final12%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea's New Missile — Japan's Defense Doctrine at a Br
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal public statement by the Japanese Prime Minister, Minister of Defense, or an official government document (white paper, policy announcement, or Diet testimony) explicitly declaring that Japan's counterstrike capability is operationally ready and deployable. Mere procurement announcements, delivery confirmations, or exercise participation do not qualify — the declaration must explicitly state operational readiness. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea's New Missile — Japan's Defense Doctrine at a Breaking Point
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final12%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
12%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/north-korea
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:north-korea
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-Japan Iran Crisis Talks — Alliance in Hormuz StraitOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if a nuclear facility (e.g., Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan) within Iranian territory is targeted by aerial bombing or missile strikes officially acknowledged by the US or Israeli government, OR independently confirmed by multiple major international media outlets (Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.). NO for cyberattacks, sabotage, or assassinations. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-Japan Iran Crisis Talks — Alliance in Hormuz StraitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-Japan Iran Crisis Talks — Alliance in Hormuz Strait
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if a nuclear facility (e.g., Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan) within Iranian territory is targeted by aerial bombing or missile strikes officially acknowledged by the US or Israeli government, OR independently confirmed by multiple major international media outlets (Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.). NO for cyberattacks, sabotage, or assassinations. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-Japan Iran Crisis Talks — Alliance in Hormuz Strait
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel/japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israelentity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Flashpoint — Escalation Pulls Superpowers ToOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A 'military clash' is defined as a confirmed exchange of kinetic weapons fire (bullets, missiles, torpedoes) between units of the US Armed Forces (including Navy, Marines, Air Force) and units of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (including PLAN, PLAAF, or PLA Rocket Force) in the South China Sea, as reported by official government statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense, or confirmed by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP). Coast Guard or paramilitary clashes do not count unless they involve regular military forces. Water cannon incidents, electronic warfare, laser dazzling, and unsafe maneuvers without weapons fire do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Flashpoint — Escalation Pulls Superpowers Toward CollisionArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final96%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Flashpoint — Escalation Pulls Superpowers To
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A 'military clash' is defined as a confirmed exchange of kinetic weapons fire (bullets, missiles, torpedoes) between units of the US Armed Forces (including Navy, Marines, Air Force) and units of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (including PLAN, PLAAF, or PLA Rocket Force) in the South China Sea, as reported by official government statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense, or confirmed by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP). Coast Guard or paramilitary clashes do not count unless they involve regular military forces. Water cannon incidents, electronic warfare, laser dazzling, and unsafe maneuvers without weapons fire do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Flashpoint — Escalation Pulls Superpowers Toward Collision
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final96%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
96%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 6.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 96.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.88) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Koizumi-Hegseth Call on Iran — The Strait of Hormuz as AlliaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Japan's cabinet authorizes any of the following by September 30, 2026: deployment of additional MSDF vessels to the Middle East beyond the current 1-destroyer/2-P-3C baseline; formal expansion of the patrol area to include the Strait of Hormuz itself; or an upgrade of the mission mandate from intelligence gathering to escort or protection operations. Official Japanese government or Ministry of Defense announcement confirming any such change constitutes resolution as YES. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisKoizumi-Hegseth Call on Iran — The Strait of Hormuz as Alliance Stress TestArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final83%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Koizumi-Hegseth Call on Iran — The Strait of Hormuz as Allia
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Japan's cabinet authorizes any of the following by September 30, 2026: deployment of additional MSDF vessels to the Middle East beyond the current 1-destroyer/2-P-3C baseline; formal expansion of the patrol area to include the Strait of Hormuz itself; or an upgrade of the mission mandate from intelligence gathering to escort or protection operations. Official Japanese government or Ministry of Defense announcement confirming any such change constitutes resolution as YES. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Koizumi-Hegseth Call on Iran — The Strait of Hormuz as Alliance Stress Test
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final83%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
83%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan/ethereum
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japanentity:ethereum
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump Backs Orbán Before April Vote — Populist Alliance MeetOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Official results published by Hungary's National Election Office showing Fidesz-KDNP alliance winning the most parliamentary seats (not necessarily a supermajority, just plurality/majority of seats) in the April 2026 Hungarian National Assembly election. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump Backs Orbán Before April Vote — Populist Alliance Meets Electoral TestArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final5%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump Backs Orbán Before April Vote — Populist Alliance Meet
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Official results published by Hungary's National Election Office showing Fidesz-KDNP alliance winning the most parliamentary seats (not necessarily a supermajority, just plurality/majority of seats) in the April 2026 Hungarian National Assembly election. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump Backs Orbán Before April Vote — Populist Alliance Meets Electoral Test
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final5%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
5%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Brent crude oil prices surge by more than 10% from their March 21, 2026 closing price at any point during the two-week period ending April 6, 2026?Key Event: Iran-Saudi Yemen Proxy War — Escalation Spiral Threatens GulOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Compare Brent crude spot closing price on March 21, 2026 (baseline) with the highest intraday or closing price recorded between March 22 and April 6, 2026. If the highest price exceeds the baseline by more than 10%, the answer is YES. If it does not, the answer is NO. Price data sourced from ICE Brent Crude Futures front-month contract. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Saudi Yemen Proxy War — Escalation Spiral Threatens Gulf Oil ChokepointsArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Brent crude oil prices surge by more than 10% from their March 21, 2026 closing price at any point during the two-week period ending April 6, 2026?
Key Event: Iran-Saudi Yemen Proxy War — Escalation Spiral Threatens Gul
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Compare Brent crude spot closing price on March 21, 2026 (baseline) with the highest intraday or closing price recorded between March 22 and April 6, 2026. If the highest price exceeds the baseline by more than 10%, the answer is YES. If it does not, the answer is NO. Price data sourced from ICE Brent Crude Futures front-month contract. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Saudi Yemen Proxy War — Escalation Spiral Threatens Gulf Oil Chokepoints
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: a2043404a9ad (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AGI Safety Accord — The Unenforceable Treaty That ResOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: By March 31, 2029, at least 30 of the original 47 signatory nations must have (1) transposed the accord's mandatory safety testing requirements into domestic law without substantive weakening amendments, AND (2) conducted at least one enforcement action or formal compliance review of a domestic AI organization under those requirements. If fewer than 30 nations meet both criteria, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AGI Safety Accord — The Unenforceable Treaty That Reshapes AI PowerArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final14%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AGI Safety Accord — The Unenforceable Treaty That Res
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: By March 31, 2029, at least 30 of the original 47 signatory nations must have (1) transposed the accord's mandatory safety testing requirements into domestic law without substantive weakening amendments, AND (2) conducted at least one enforcement action or formal compliance review of a domestic AI organization under those requirements. If fewer than 30 nations meet both criteria, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AGI Safety Accord — The Unenforceable Treaty That Reshapes AI Power
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final14%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
14%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Assault on ProfessOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 87% confidence➡ Verdict: At least 3 firms ranked in the Am Law 50 (2026 ranking) must have publicly announced, confirmed via press release, trade publication report, or regulatory filing, the deployment of GPT-6 or its direct successor model as an integrated tool for legal reasoning tasks (not merely document search or administrative functions) in active client engagements by June 30, 2027. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Assault on Professional ExpertiseArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final13%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Assault on Profess
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 87% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least 3 firms ranked in the Am Law 50 (2026 ranking) must have publicly announced, confirmed via press release, trade publication report, or regulatory filing, the deployment of GPT-6 or its direct successor model as an integrated tool for legal reasoning tasks (not merely document search or administrative functions) in active client engagements by June 30, 2027. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI's Assault on Professional Expertise
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final13%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
13%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Strait of Hormuz Threat — Iran's Chokepoint Gambit Risks GloOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Significant disruption is defined as a reduction of 50% or more in daily tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz, sustained for at least 72 consecutive hours, as measured by maritime tracking services (MarineTraffic, Lloyd's List) or confirmed by the US Fifth Fleet. Temporary diversions or slowdowns that do not reach the 50% threshold do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisStrait of Hormuz Threat — Iran's Chokepoint Gambit Risks Global Energy CrisisArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final46%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Strait of Hormuz Threat — Iran's Chokepoint Gambit Risks Glo
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Significant disruption is defined as a reduction of 50% or more in daily tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz, sustained for at least 72 consecutive hours, as measured by maritime tracking services (MarineTraffic, Lloyd's List) or confirmed by the US Fifth Fleet. Temporary diversions or slowdowns that do not reach the 50% threshold do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Strait of Hormuz Threat — Iran's Chokepoint Gambit Risks Global Energy Crisis
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final46%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
46%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 46.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.29
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: USDC's $10B Exodus — Regulation Triggers Flight to DecentralOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: USDC trades at $0.995-$1.005 on CoinGecko's volume-weighted average price for 7 consecutive calendar days at any point before April 30, 2026. A single day outside this range resets the 7-day counter. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUSDC's $10B Exodus — Regulation Triggers Flight to DecentralizationArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: USDC's $10B Exodus — Regulation Triggers Flight to Decentral
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: USDC trades at $0.995-$1.005 on CoinGecko's volume-weighted average price for 7 consecutive calendar days at any point before April 30, 2026. A single day outside this range resets the 7-day counter. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
USDC's $10B Exodus — Regulation Triggers Flight to Decentralization
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 91.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China issue a formal diplomatic protest (defined as a demarche or official MFA statement demanding US withdrawal or cessation of naval operations in the disputed area) in response to this near-collision by 2026-03-25?Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic protest is defined as: (1) an official statement by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson or minister-level official that specifically references the near-collision incident, AND (2) the statement includes a demand for the US to cease, withdraw, or modify its naval operations in the South China Sea. Routine expressions of 'concern' or 'opposition to FONOPs' that do not specifically reference this incident do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China issue a formal diplomatic protest (defined as a demarche or official MFA statement demanding US withdrawal or cessation of naval operations in the disputed area) in response to this near-collision by 2026-03-25?
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic protest is defined as: (1) an official statement by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson or minister-level official that specifically references the near-collision incident, AND (2) the statement includes a demand for the US to cease, withdraw, or modify its naval operations in the South China Sea. Routine expressions of 'concern' or 'opposition to FONOPs' that do not specifically reference this incident do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 5003dcb847f0 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Taiwan conduct publicly announced military exercises (air defense, naval, or joint forces) by 2026-03-30 in response to the record Chinese drone incursions?Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray Zone Escalation BefOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense or Armed Forces publicly announce or conduct military exercises (including live-fire drills, air defense drills, or naval patrols) that are reported by at least two major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN, NHK, etc.) between 2026-03-23 and 2026-03-30. The exercises must be new announcements, not pre-scheduled routine training. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray Zone Escalation Before ElectionsArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Taiwan conduct publicly announced military exercises (air defense, naval, or joint forces) by 2026-03-30 in response to the record Chinese drone incursions?
Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray Zone Escalation Bef
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense or Armed Forces publicly announce or conduct military exercises (including live-fire drills, air defense drills, or naval patrols) that are reported by at least two major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN, NHK, etc.) between 2026-03-23 and 2026-03-30. The exercises must be new announcements, not pre-scheduled routine training. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray Zone Escalation Before Elections
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: bc4bba9a3003 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Meta's AR Social Platform — When Immersion Becomes SurveillaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by December 31, 2027, at least one of the following has occurred: (1) a class-action lawsuit seeking $100 million or more in damages related specifically to Meta's AR platform data collection practices has been filed in a US court; (2) an EU Data Protection Authority has issued a formal fine or penalty decision of €100 million or more targeting Meta's AR platform; or (3) a regulatory enforcement action under the EU AI Act specifically targeting Meta's AR biometric/emotion recognition features has resulted in a formal finding of violation. Resolved NO if none of these thresholds are met by the deadline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisMeta's AR Social Platform — When Immersion Becomes Surveillance InfrastructureArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final11%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Meta's AR Social Platform — When Immersion Becomes Surveilla
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by December 31, 2027, at least one of the following has occurred: (1) a class-action lawsuit seeking $100 million or more in damages related specifically to Meta's AR platform data collection practices has been filed in a US court; (2) an EU Data Protection Authority has issued a formal fine or penalty decision of €100 million or more targeting Meta's AR platform; or (3) a regulatory enforcement action under the EU AI Act specifically targeting Meta's AR biometric/emotion recognition features has resulted in a formal finding of violation. Resolved NO if none of these thresholds are met by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Meta's AR Social Platform — When Immersion Becomes Surveillance Infrastructure
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final11%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
11%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO issue a formal joint statement (not merely a chairman's statement or press remarks) condemning Russia's tactical nuclear drills by 2026-03-26?Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near NATO Border — Escalation TestsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal joint statement, communiqué, or declaration issued by NATO (attributed to the North Atlantic Council or all 32 allies collectively) that explicitly condemns or denounces Russia's tactical nuclear exercises must be published on NATO's official website (nato.int) by 23:59 UTC on March 26, 2026. A chairman's statement, individual ally statements, or spokesperson press remarks do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills Near NATO Border — Escalation Tests Alliance CohesionArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO issue a formal joint statement (not merely a chairman's statement or press remarks) condemning Russia's tactical nuclear drills by 2026-03-26?
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near NATO Border — Escalation Tests
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal joint statement, communiqué, or declaration issued by NATO (attributed to the North Atlantic Council or all 32 allies collectively) that explicitly condemns or denounces Russia's tactical nuclear exercises must be published on NATO's official website (nato.int) by 23:59 UTC on March 26, 2026. A chairman's statement, individual ally statements, or spokesperson press remarks do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near NATO Border — Escalation Tests Alliance Cohesion
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 18.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.67)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 6474800c5981 (medium)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from official US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or credible international media (Reuters, AP, BBC) of intentional or accidental weapons fire exchanged between US and Chinese military or coast guard personnel in the South China Sea resulting in damage to equipment or injury/death of personnel. Collisions without weapons fire do not count. Cyber attacks do not count. Incidents involving only Philippine or other allied forces without direct US military involvement do not count. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from official US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or credible international media (Reuters, AP, BBC) of intentional or accidental weapons fire exchanged between US and Chinese military or coast guard personnel in the South China Sea resulting in damage to equipment or injury/death of personnel. Collisions without weapons fire do not count. Cyber attacks do not count. Incidents involving only Philippine or other allied forces without direct US military involvement do not count. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan-U.S. Defense Phone Talks — Hormuz Strait Crisis ExposeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Has the Japanese government made a cabinet decision by September 30, 2026, regarding the Maritime Self-Defense Force's Middle East dispatch that includes a substantial expansion of its mission from the current "survey and research" purpose to include escort activities or mine countermeasures, etc.? Based on official announcements from the Ministry of Defense and the Cabinet Office. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan-U.S. Defense Phone Talks — Hormuz Strait Crisis Exposes Alliance's Structural ChallengesTracker-only判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan-U.S. Defense Phone Talks — Hormuz Strait Crisis Expose
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Has the Japanese government made a cabinet decision by September 30, 2026, regarding the Maritime Self-Defense Force's Middle East dispatch that includes a substantial expansion of its mission from the current "survey and research" purpose to include escort activities or mine countermeasures, etc.? Based on official announcements from the Ministry of Defense and the Cabinet Office. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan-U.S. Defense Phone Talks — Hormuz Strait Crisis Exposes Alliance's Structural Challenges
Tracker-only
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: USDC's $10B Exodus — Stablecoin Regulation Triggers DecentraOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: USDC must trade within the $0.999-$1.001 range on all major exchanges (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) for 7 consecutive calendar days at any point before April 30, 2026. A single daily close outside this range resets the counter. Data source: CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap daily closing price. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUSDC's $10B Exodus — Stablecoin Regulation Triggers Decentralization ReflexArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: USDC's $10B Exodus — Stablecoin Regulation Triggers Decentra
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: USDC must trade within the $0.999-$1.001 range on all major exchanges (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) for 7 consecutive calendar days at any point before April 30, 2026. A single daily close outside this range resets the counter. Data source: CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap daily closing price. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
USDC's $10B Exodus — Stablecoin Regulation Triggers Decentralization Reflex
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 77.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.05)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Taiwan conduct publicly announced military exercises (live-fire or large-scale mobilization drills) explicitly in response to the Chinese drone incursions by 2026-03-30?Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray Zone Escalation BefOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense officially announces and conducts military exercises (live-fire drills, air defense exercises, or large-scale mobilization drills) that are publicly linked to or stated as a response to the record Chinese drone incursions. Routine pre-scheduled exercises that are not explicitly framed as a response do not qualify. The exercises must be announced and commenced by March 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray Zone Escalation Before ElectionsArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Taiwan conduct publicly announced military exercises (live-fire or large-scale mobilization drills) explicitly in response to the Chinese drone incursions by 2026-03-30?
Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray Zone Escalation Bef
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense officially announces and conducts military exercises (live-fire drills, air defense exercises, or large-scale mobilization drills) that are publicly linked to or stated as a response to the record Chinese drone incursions. Routine pre-scheduled exercises that are not explicitly framed as a response do not qualify. The exercises must be announced and commenced by March 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray Zone Escalation Before Elections
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: e14d36927c9b (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional Herding RewiresOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (aggregated across major exchanges) must be at or above $120,000.00 USD for the answer to be YES. If the price is below $120,000.00 at that timestamp, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional Herding Rewires Capital FlowsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional Herding Rewires
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (aggregated across major exchanges) must be at or above $120,000.00 USD for the answer to be YES. If the price is below $120,000.00 at that timestamp, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional Herding Rewires Capital Flows
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US-China Military Tension in South China Sea — Conflict SpirOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if either the US or Chinese government or defense authorities officially confirm the use of force, such as firing weapons, using missiles, or launching torpedoes, between their regular armed forces in the South China Sea. NO for gray zone activities by the Coast Guard or maritime militia such as water cannons or ramming. Destruction of drones or unmanned vessels is YES only if officially recognized as an intentional attack under the command of regular armed forces. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS-China Military Tension in South China Sea — Conflict Spiral Lowers Threshold for Accidental ClashTracker-only判定不可 (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US-China Military Tension in South China Sea — Conflict Spir
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if either the US or Chinese government or defense authorities officially confirm the use of force, such as firing weapons, using missiles, or launching torpedoes, between their regular armed forces in the South China Sea. NO for gray zone activities by the Coast Guard or maritime militia such as water cannons or ramming. Destruction of drones or unmanned vessels is YES only if officially recognized as an intentional attack under the command of regular armed forces. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US-China Military Tension in South China Sea — Conflict Spiral Lowers Threshold for Accidental Clash
Tracker-only
判定不可 (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可 (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=us-china-trade-war
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:us-china-trade-warpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed incident between US military forces (including Navy, Air Force, or Marines) and Chinese military forces (including PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, or Chinese Coast Guard) in the South China Sea that results in at least one confirmed death or the confirmed destruction or disabling of a military vessel or aircraft, as reported by official government statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed incident between US military forces (including Navy, Air Force, or Marines) and Chinese military forces (including PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, or Chinese Coast Guard) in the South China Sea that results in at least one confirmed death or the confirmed destruction or disabling of a military vessel or aircraft, as reported by official government statements from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Taiwan formally request emergency US military support (defined as a direct government-to-government request for immediate military assistance, personnel deployment, or emergency defense equipment beyond the existing arms sale pipeline) by 2026-03-30?Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray-Zone Escalation SpiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal, publicly reported request from Taiwan's government to the United States for emergency military support — including emergency arms deliveries, military personnel deployment, or activation of any emergency defense cooperation mechanism — as confirmed by official statements from either Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense, Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the US State Department, or the US Department of Defense. Routine arms deal negotiations, existing defense cooperation activities, and unofficial diplomatic communications do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray-Zone Escalation Spiral AcceleratesArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Taiwan formally request emergency US military support (defined as a direct government-to-government request for immediate military assistance, personnel deployment, or emergency defense equipment beyond the existing arms sale pipeline) by 2026-03-30?
Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray-Zone Escalation Spi
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal, publicly reported request from Taiwan's government to the United States for emergency military support — including emergency arms deliveries, military personnel deployment, or activation of any emergency defense cooperation mechanism — as confirmed by official statements from either Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense, Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the US State Department, or the US Department of Defense. Routine arms deal negotiations, existing defense cooperation activities, and unofficial diplomatic communications do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray-Zone Escalation Spiral Accelerates
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: f0172c26f4ab (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO announce an increase in troop deployments to its eastern flank member states (Poland, Baltics, Romania, or Finland) by 2026-04-06 in direct response to Russia's March 2026 nuclear readiness drills?Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills — The Escalation Spiral That RewriteOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if NATO, SACEUR, or any NATO member government officially announces new, additional, or accelerated troop deployments (beyond previously scheduled rotations) to Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, or Finland, explicitly citing Russia's March 2026 nuclear drills or nuclear posture as justification, by April 6, 2026. The announcement must reference specific force movements, not merely rhetorical condemnation. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills — The Escalation Spiral That Rewrites DeterrenceArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO announce an increase in troop deployments to its eastern flank member states (Poland, Baltics, Romania, or Finland) by 2026-04-06 in direct response to Russia's March 2026 nuclear readiness drills?
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills — The Escalation Spiral That Rewrite
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if NATO, SACEUR, or any NATO member government officially announces new, additional, or accelerated troop deployments (beyond previously scheduled rotations) to Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, or Finland, explicitly citing Russia's March 2026 nuclear drills or nuclear posture as justification, by April 6, 2026. The announcement must reference specific force movements, not merely rhetorical condemnation. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills — The Escalation Spiral That Rewrites Deterrence
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 86e01323b40b (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin to Exceed ¥15M — Institutional Investors Change CrypOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the BTC/JPY spot price on major cryptocurrency exchanges (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or binance) is 15 million yen or higher as of March 31, 2026, 23:59 (JST). Judged based on the closing price on that day, not a temporary touch. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin to Exceed ¥15M — Institutional Investors Change Crypto's Structural PositionTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin to Exceed ¥15M — Institutional Investors Change Cryp
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the BTC/JPY spot price on major cryptocurrency exchanges (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or binance) is 15 million yen or higher as of March 31, 2026, 23:59 (JST). Judged based on the closing price on that day, not a temporary touch. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin to Exceed ¥15M — Institutional Investors Change Crypto's Structural Position
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: 380309ff4ea8 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's ¥15M Threshold — Institutional Capital Reshapes CrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: Bitcoin/JPY spot price on bitFlyer, Coincheck, or bitbank must show a traded price at or above ¥15,000,000 per BTC at any point between now and June 30, 2026, as recorded on the exchange's official price history. A single print above ¥15,000,000 counts as YES, regardless of whether the price subsequently falls below. → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOBitcoin's ¥15M Threshold — Institutional Capital Reshapes Crypto's Power StructureArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's ¥15M Threshold — Institutional Capital Reshapes Cr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin/JPY spot price on bitFlyer, Coincheck, or bitbank must show a traded price at or above ¥15,000,000 per BTC at any point between now and June 30, 2026, as recorded on the exchange's official price history. A single print above ¥15,000,000 counts as YES, regardless of whether the price subsequently falls below. → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Bitcoin's ¥15M Threshold — Institutional Capital Reshapes Crypto's Power Structure
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A 'YES' resolution requires a confirmed, publicly reported incident involving the exchange of fire (including warning shots directed at vessels/aircraft), intentional ramming causing damage, or collision resulting in confirmed casualties or destruction of military equipment between uniformed US military personnel/assets and Chinese PLA or PLA Navy personnel/assets in the South China Sea. Coast guard interactions, civilian vessel incidents, and verbal confrontations do not qualify. The incident must be acknowledged by official government sources from at least one side. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A 'YES' resolution requires a confirmed, publicly reported incident involving the exchange of fire (including warning shots directed at vessels/aircraft), intentional ramming causing damage, or collision resulting in confirmed casualties or destruction of military equipment between uniformed US military personnel/assets and Chinese PLA or PLA Navy personnel/assets in the South China Sea. Coast guard interactions, civilian vessel incidents, and verbal confrontations do not qualify. The incident must be acknowledged by official government sources from at least one side. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan's Election Under Siege — China's Economic Coercion asOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 69% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: The candidate nominated by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins the presidential election in Taiwan's next regularly scheduled presidential vote. Victory is determined by the Central Election Commission of Taiwan's official certification of results. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Sunderland be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOTaiwan's Election Under Siege — China's Economic Coercion as Electoral WeaponArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan's Election Under Siege — China's Economic Coercion as
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 69% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: The candidate nominated by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins the presidential election in Taiwan's next regularly scheduled presidential vote. Victory is determined by the Central Election Commission of Taiwan's official certification of results. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Sunderland be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Taiwan's Election Under Siege — China's Economic Coercion as Electoral Weapon
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 31.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.48) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China impose a naval blockade or maritime quarantine of any kind on Taiwan by April 4, 2026?Key Event: Taiwan's Missile Shield — The Escalation Spiral That Could ROur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A naval blockade or maritime quarantine is defined as China's military or coast guard forces physically intercepting, inspecting, turning away, or sinking commercial vessels bound for Taiwanese ports, OR China declaring an exclusion zone around Taiwan that disrupts normal commercial shipping for at least 48 consecutive hours. Routine military exercises, even large ones, do not count unless they directly and physically impede commercial shipping to Taiwan's major ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan's Missile Shield — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape AsiaArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China impose a naval blockade or maritime quarantine of any kind on Taiwan by April 4, 2026?
Key Event: Taiwan's Missile Shield — The Escalation Spiral That Could R
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A naval blockade or maritime quarantine is defined as China's military or coast guard forces physically intercepting, inspecting, turning away, or sinking commercial vessels bound for Taiwanese ports, OR China declaring an exclusion zone around Taiwan that disrupts normal commercial shipping for at least 48 consecutive hours. Routine military exercises, even large ones, do not count unless they directly and physically impede commercial shipping to Taiwan's major ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan's Missile Shield — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape Asia
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: f93f9ca1aaaf (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — Escalation Spiral Meets Trade SumOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from official US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or credible international wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP) of any weapons discharge — including warning shots, flares directed at vessels, or offensive weapons fire — by a US or Chinese military vessel targeting the other nation's military vessel in the South China Sea between 2026-03-24 and 2026-04-24. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Standoff — Escalation Spiral Meets Trade Summit LeverageArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final96%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — Escalation Spiral Meets Trade Sum
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from official US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, or credible international wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP) of any weapons discharge — including warning shots, flares directed at vessels, or offensive weapons fire — by a US or Chinese military vessel targeting the other nation's military vessel in the South China Sea between 2026-03-24 and 2026-04-24. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Standoff — Escalation Spiral Meets Trade Summit Leverage
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final96%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
96%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 96.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Stablecoin Law — Regulatory Capture Reshapes the $180B DiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: On December 31, 2026, compare the total market capitalization of USDC and USDT as reported by CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko at 23:59 UTC. If USDC market cap exceeds USDT market cap, the answer is YES. If USDT market cap is equal to or greater than USDC market cap, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOUS Stablecoin Law — Regulatory Capture Reshapes the $180B Digital DollarArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Stablecoin Law — Regulatory Capture Reshapes the $180B Di
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: On December 31, 2026, compare the total market capitalization of USDC and USDT as reported by CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko at 23:59 UTC. If USDC market cap exceeds USDT market cap, the answer is YES. If USDT market cap is equal to or greater than USDC market cap, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
US Stablecoin Law — Regulatory Capture Reshapes the $180B Digital Dollar
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereum
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $150K Breakout — Institutional Herding Reshapes DiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's spot price on the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) or equivalent widely-recognized index must be at or above $150,000.00 USD at the daily close (00:00 UTC) on June 30, 2026. If the price is below $150,000.00, the answer is NO. If at or above, the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOBitcoin's $150K Breakout — Institutional Herding Reshapes Digital Asset MarketsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $150K Breakout — Institutional Herding Reshapes Di
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's spot price on the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) or equivalent widely-recognized index must be at or above $150,000.00 USD at the daily close (00:00 UTC) on June 30, 2026. If the price is below $150,000.00, the answer is NO. If at or above, the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Bitcoin's $150K Breakout — Institutional Herding Reshapes Digital Asset Markets
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping CrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 23% confidence➡ Verdict: ETH/USD price on any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) closes above $8,000.00 on any trading day on or before June 30, 2026. A single daily close above $8,000 is sufficient; it does not need to be sustained. → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOEthereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping Crypto Capital FlowsArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping Cr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 23% confidence
➡ Verdict: ETH/USD price on any major exchange (Coinbase, Binance, Kraken) closes above $8,000.00 on any trading day on or before June 30, 2026. A single daily close above $8,000 is sufficient; it does not need to be sustained. → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Ethereum's 10% Staking Yield — The Gravity Well Reshaping Crypto Capital Flows
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 77.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.05) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the United States conduct a military strike on Iranian territory (including power plants or other infrastructure) by 2026-04-07?Key Event: Hormuz Strait Ultimatum — Trump's 48-Hour Deadline TriggersOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from the US Department of Defense, Iranian government, or at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC) that US military forces conducted kinetic strikes against targets located within Iran's internationally recognized borders. Naval skirmishes in international waters or cyberattacks do not count; strikes must involve physical munitions impacting Iranian soil. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Strait Ultimatum — Trump's 48-Hour Deadline Triggers Escalation SpiralArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the United States conduct a military strike on Iranian territory (including power plants or other infrastructure) by 2026-04-07?
Key Event: Hormuz Strait Ultimatum — Trump's 48-Hour Deadline Triggers
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from the US Department of Defense, Iranian government, or at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC) that US military forces conducted kinetic strikes against targets located within Iran's internationally recognized borders. Naval skirmishes in international waters or cyberattacks do not count; strikes must involve physical munitions impacting Iranian soil. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Strait Ultimatum — Trump's 48-Hour Deadline Triggers Escalation Spiral
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trumpdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: b7eb2ae9df92 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: EU AI Regulation Act — Brussels' Bid to Write the Global RulOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Compare the number of new AI startup incorporations in EU member states during H2 2026 + H1 2027 versus H2 2025 + H1 2026, using Dealroom, Crunchbase, or equivalent EU startup tracking databases. If the year-over-year decline exceeds 20%, the answer is YES. If the decline is less than 20% or there is growth, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOEU AI Regulation Act — Brussels' Bid to Write the Global RulebookArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: EU AI Regulation Act — Brussels' Bid to Write the Global Rul
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Compare the number of new AI startup incorporations in EU member states during H2 2026 + H1 2027 versus H2 2025 + H1 2026, using Dealroom, Crunchbase, or equivalent EU startup tracking databases. If the year-over-year decline exceeds 20%, the answer is YES. If the decline is less than 20% or there is growth, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
EU AI Regulation Act — Brussels' Bid to Write the Global Rulebook
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran Energy Infrastructure Attack — Middle East Escalation DOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the closing price of ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures (front month) reaches $120.00 or more per barrel by June 30, 2026 on at least one day; NO if it does not. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran Energy Infrastructure Attack — Middle East Escalation Disrupting Global Supply Chains?Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran Energy Infrastructure Attack — Middle East Escalation D
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the closing price of ICE Brent Crude Oil Futures (front month) reaches $120.00 or more per barrel by June 30, 2026 on at least one day; NO if it does not. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran Energy Infrastructure Attack — Middle East Escalation Disrupting Global Supply Chains?
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed by official government statements, credible international media, or United Nations reports that at least one military service member from either the United States or China was killed or seriously injured as a direct result of a hostile or accidental military engagement between U.S. and Chinese forces (not proxies) in the South China Sea between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed by official government statements, credible international media, or United Nations reports that at least one military service member from either the United States or China was killed or seriously injured as a direct result of a hostile or accidental military engagement between U.S. and Chinese forces (not proxies) in the South China Sea between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: 2026 Deadline for Taiwan Reunification — When the Spiral ofOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the Chinese People's Liberation Army launches an armed attack on the main island of Taiwan or the outlying islands effectively controlled by Taiwan (Kinmen, Matsu, Taiping Island, etc.) by 23:59 (UTC) on December 31, 2026, or declares and implements an official maritime blockade of the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters. Military exercises, entry into the ADIZ, and cyber attacks alone will be judged as NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis2026 Deadline for Taiwan Reunification — When the Spiral of Conflict Reaches a Critical Point?Tracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: 2026 Deadline for Taiwan Reunification — When the Spiral of
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the Chinese People's Liberation Army launches an armed attack on the main island of Taiwan or the outlying islands effectively controlled by Taiwan (Kinmen, Matsu, Taiping Island, etc.) by 23:59 (UTC) on December 31, 2026, or declares and implements an official maritime blockade of the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters. Military exercises, entry into the ADIZ, and cyber attacks alone will be judged as NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
2026 Deadline for Taiwan Reunification — When the Spiral of Conflict Reaches a Critical Point?
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: China's 2026 Taiwan Ultimatum — The Escalation Spiral That COur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if by December 31, 2026, the PLA has either: (1) imposed a declared or de facto naval/air blockade of Taiwan that physically interdicts commercial shipping for 72+ hours, or (2) conducted kinetic military strikes (missiles, airstrikes, or amphibious landing operations) against Taiwan-controlled territory. Resolved NO if neither of these conditions is met by the deadline. Large-scale military exercises that do not physically interdict shipping or strike Taiwanese territory do not count. → ❌ Missed❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%7% of prediction market capital bets on NOChina's 2026 Taiwan Ultimatum — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape the Pacific OrderArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: China's 2026 Taiwan Ultimatum — The Escalation Spiral That C
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if by December 31, 2026, the PLA has either: (1) imposed a declared or de facto naval/air blockade of Taiwan that physically interdicts commercial shipping for 72+ hours, or (2) conducted kinetic military strikes (missiles, airstrikes, or amphibious landing operations) against Taiwan-controlled territory. Resolved NO if neither of these conditions is met by the deadline. Large-scale military exercises that do not physically interdict shipping or strike Taiwanese territory do not count. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%
7% of prediction market capital bets on NO
China's 2026 Taiwan Ultimatum — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape the Pacific Order
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's Dispatch of Ships to Hormuz Strait—Alliance FractureOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 73% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the Minister of Defense or the Chief Cabinet Secretary formally announces at a press conference, etc., the additional dispatch of escort vessels to the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf, the expansion of the area of activity, or the change of vessel type (e.g., deployment of Aegis vessels). A simple extension of the current system (only renewal of the dispatch period) is judged as NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's Dispatch of Ships to Hormuz Strait—Alliance Fracture or New Security Architecture?Article-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's Dispatch of Ships to Hormuz Strait—Alliance Fracture
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 73% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the Minister of Defense or the Chief Cabinet Secretary formally announces at a press conference, etc., the additional dispatch of escort vessels to the Strait of Hormuz or the Persian Gulf, the expansion of the area of activity, or the change of vessel type (e.g., deployment of Aegis vessels). A simple extension of the current system (only renewal of the dispatch period) is judged as NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's Dispatch of Ships to Hormuz Strait—Alliance Fracture or New Security Architecture?
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 27.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.53)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's Post-Summit Diplomacy — Balancing Trump and Iran onOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed visit by FM Motegi to Tehran, or a formal bilateral meeting between Motegi and Iran's Foreign Minister at any location, reported by official Japanese government sources or major wire services (Kyodo, Reuters, AP) by September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's Post-Summit Diplomacy — Balancing Trump and Iran on a TightropeArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final5%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's Post-Summit Diplomacy — Balancing Trump and Iran on
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed visit by FM Motegi to Tehran, or a formal bilateral meeting between Motegi and Iran's Foreign Minister at any location, reported by official Japanese government sources or major wire services (Kyodo, Reuters, AP) by September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's Post-Summit Diplomacy — Balancing Trump and Iran on a Tightrope
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final5%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
5%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/japan/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:japanentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China impose a naval blockade or declared maritime exclusion zone around Taiwan by April 4, 2026?Key Event: Taiwan's Missile Shield — The Escalation Spiral That Could ROur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A Chinese naval blockade is defined as: (1) an official or de facto restriction on commercial shipping to or from Taiwan enforced by PLA Navy vessels, OR (2) a declared 'maritime exclusion zone' or 'inspection zone' that effectively prevents free commercial navigation to Taiwan's major ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung). Routine military exercises that temporarily affect shipping lanes but do not constitute a sustained restriction on commercial traffic do NOT qualify. The answer is YES if credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) report such a blockade or exclusion zone being actively enforced for 48+ consecutive hours before the deadline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan's Missile Shield — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape the Indo-PacificArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China impose a naval blockade or declared maritime exclusion zone around Taiwan by April 4, 2026?
Key Event: Taiwan's Missile Shield — The Escalation Spiral That Could R
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A Chinese naval blockade is defined as: (1) an official or de facto restriction on commercial shipping to or from Taiwan enforced by PLA Navy vessels, OR (2) a declared 'maritime exclusion zone' or 'inspection zone' that effectively prevents free commercial navigation to Taiwan's major ports (Kaohsiung, Keelung, Taichung). Routine military exercises that temporarily affect shipping lanes but do not constitute a sustained restriction on commercial traffic do NOT qualify. The answer is YES if credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) report such a blockade or exclusion zone being actively enforced for 48+ consecutive hours before the deadline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan's Missile Shield — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape the Indo-Pacific
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: d1d903ccf538 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $150K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewires GlOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 23% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's daily closing price (UTC, as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap) must remain above $150,000 on every single trading day from March 24, 2026 through June 30, 2026. If Bitcoin closes below $150,000 on any day in this period, the answer is NO. If it closes above $150,000 on every day, the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOBitcoin's $150K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewires Global Capital AllocationArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $150K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewires Gl
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 23% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's daily closing price (UTC, as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap) must remain above $150,000 on every single trading day from March 24, 2026 through June 30, 2026. If Bitcoin closes below $150,000 on any day in this period, the answer is NO. If it closes above $150,000 on every day, the answer is YES. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Bitcoin's $150K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewires Global Capital Allocation
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 77.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.05) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Trump's Electoral Boomerang — How GOP Overreach Seeds DemocrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Based on certified results from state election authorities following the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. Democrats must achieve a net gain of 5 or more House seats compared to the pre-election composition of the House. The count uses the party affiliation at the time of certification, with vacancies attributed to the party that last held the seat. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTrump's Electoral Boomerang — How GOP Overreach Seeds Democratic RevivalArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final86%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Trump's Electoral Boomerang — How GOP Overreach Seeds Democr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Based on certified results from state election authorities following the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. Democrats must achieve a net gain of 5 or more House seats compared to the pre-election composition of the House. The count uses the party affiliation at the time of certification, with vacancies attributed to the party that last held the seat. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Trump's Electoral Boomerang — How GOP Overreach Seeds Democratic Revival
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final86%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
86%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Strait of Hormuz Crisis — US-Iran Conflict Spiral Shakes MidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 38% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the US Department of Defense or the Iranian Ministry of Defense officially announces, or if multiple major international news agencies (at least 2 of AP, Reuters, AFP) report a direct military engagement (intentional shelling, missile attack, or air strike) between US and Iranian forces around the Strait of Hormuz. Excludes warning shots, accidental contact, cyberattacks, or attacks by proxy forces. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisStrait of Hormuz Crisis — US-Iran Conflict Spiral Shakes Middle East Energy OrderArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Strait of Hormuz Crisis — US-Iran Conflict Spiral Shakes Mid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 38% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the US Department of Defense or the Iranian Ministry of Defense officially announces, or if multiple major international news agencies (at least 2 of AP, Reuters, AFP) report a direct military engagement (intentional shelling, missile attack, or air strike) between US and Iranian forces around the Strait of Hormuz. Excludes warning shots, accidental contact, cyberattacks, or attacks by proxy forces. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Strait of Hormuz Crisis — US-Iran Conflict Spiral Shakes Middle East Energy Order
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the US conduct a military strike on Iranian territory by 2026-04-07?Key Event: Hormuz Strait Ultimatum — Trump's 48-Hour Threat Triggers EsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from the US Department of Defense, credible international media (AP, Reuters, BBC), or official Iranian government statements of US military strikes hitting targets within Iranian sovereign territory (excluding proxy targets in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen). Cyberattacks alone do not count; kinetic strikes are required. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Strait Ultimatum — Trump's 48-Hour Threat Triggers Escalation Spiral with IranArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the US conduct a military strike on Iranian territory by 2026-04-07?
Key Event: Hormuz Strait Ultimatum — Trump's 48-Hour Threat Triggers Es
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from the US Department of Defense, credible international media (AP, Reuters, BBC), or official Iranian government statements of US military strikes hitting targets within Iranian sovereign territory (excluding proxy targets in Iraq, Syria, or Yemen). Cyberattacks alone do not count; kinetic strikes are required. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Strait Ultimatum — Trump's 48-Hour Threat Triggers Escalation Spiral with Iran
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trumpdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 5b10280fb213 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's Defense Spending Exceeds 3% of GDP — Irreversible StOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the Japanese government's published 2026 defense budget (including supplementary budgets) and defense-related expenditures, calculated using NATO standards (broad security expenditures including the Coast Guard, retired SDF personnel costs, cyber-related budgets, etc.), reach 3.0% or more of GDP, as confirmed by government publications or estimates from reliable international organizations (NATO, SIPRI, etc.). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's Defense Spending Exceeds 3% of GDP — Irreversible Structural Shift in Post-War SecurityTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's Defense Spending Exceeds 3% of GDP — Irreversible St
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the Japanese government's published 2026 defense budget (including supplementary budgets) and defense-related expenditures, calculated using NATO standards (broad security expenditures including the Coast Guard, retired SDF personnel costs, cyber-related budgets, etc.), reach 3.0% or more of GDP, as confirmed by government publications or estimates from reliable international organizations (NATO, SIPRI, etc.). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's Defense Spending Exceeds 3% of GDP — Irreversible Structural Shift in Post-War Security
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/nato
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:nato
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 7347cdc4910d (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral Neither SOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A verified report from any official government source (US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, Philippine Armed Forces, or equivalent allied military) confirming that military personnel were killed or wounded as a direct result of a hostile or accidental military encounter in the South China Sea between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Coast guard personnel count if the incident involves military-grade weapons or is classified as a military engagement by the reporting government. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral Neither S
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A verified report from any official government source (US Department of Defense, Chinese Ministry of National Defense, Philippine Armed Forces, or equivalent allied military) confirming that military personnel were killed or wounded as a direct result of a hostile or accidental military encounter in the South China Sea between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Coast guard personnel count if the incident involves military-grade weapons or is classified as a military engagement by the reporting government. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Flashpoint — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal military conflict is defined as the deliberate use of lethal military force (missiles, gunfire, torpedoes, or other weapons) by US or Chinese armed forces against the other side's military personnel or assets, confirmed by official statements or credible media reporting from at least two independent sources. Accidental collisions, water cannon use, or coast guard actions against civilian vessels do not qualify. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal military conflict is defined as the deliberate use of lethal military force (missiles, gunfire, torpedoes, or other weapons) by US or Chinese armed forces against the other side's military personnel or assets, confirmed by official statements or credible media reporting from at least two independent sources. Accidental collisions, water cannon use, or coast guard actions against civilian vessels do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping/ethereum / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingentity:ethereumdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Bet on EOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: Based on enterprise AI platform market share estimates from at least two of the following analyst firms: Gartner, IDC, Forrester, or Bloomberg Intelligence. Market share measured by enterprise AI platform revenue (API fees, enterprise licenses, and associated cloud infrastructure revenue directly attributed to GPT-6/OpenAI models). Threshold is 35% of total enterprise AI platform market. → ❌ Missed❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Bet on Enterprise AITracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Bet on E
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: Based on enterprise AI platform market share estimates from at least two of the following analyst firms: Gartner, IDC, Forrester, or Bloomberg Intelligence. Market share measured by enterprise AI platform revenue (API fees, enterprise licenses, and associated cloud infrastructure revenue directly attributed to GPT-6/OpenAI models). Threshold is 35% of total enterprise AI platform market. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Bet on Enterprise AI
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: xAI's Grok-3 Targets Space — AI's Orbital Power Play BeginsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Verifiable through official NASA or U.S. Space Force press releases, contract announcements, or mission documentation confirming that xAI's Grok-3 (or its direct successor model within xAI) served as a primary AI system for mission planning on at least one official government mission. 'Primary' means the AI was used for core mission planning decisions, not merely evaluated or used in an advisory capacity during a test. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisxAI's Grok-3 Targets Space — AI's Orbital Power Play BeginsTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final29%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: xAI's Grok-3 Targets Space — AI's Orbital Power Play Begins
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verifiable through official NASA or U.S. Space Force press releases, contract announcements, or mission documentation confirming that xAI's Grok-3 (or its direct successor model within xAI) served as a primary AI system for mission planning on at least one official government mission. 'Primary' means the AI was used for core mission planning decisions, not merely evaluated or used in an advisory capacity during a test. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
xAI's Grok-3 Targets Space — AI's Orbital Power Play Begins
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final29%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
29%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed military incident in the South China Sea involving direct engagement (collision with fatalities, weapons discharge, vessel sinking, aircraft shootdown) between US or US-allied military/coast guard forces and Chinese military/coast guard forces, resulting in at least one confirmed death, as reported by official government sources or credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP) by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed military incident in the South China Sea involving direct engagement (collision with fatalities, weapons discharge, vessel sinking, aircraft shootdown) between US or US-allied military/coast guard forces and Chinese military/coast guard forces, resulting in at least one confirmed death, as reported by official government sources or credible international media (Reuters, AP, AFP) by December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Unification Deadline — China's 2026 Timeline and theOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A YES outcome requires one or more of the following verifiable events by December 31, 2026: (1) China declares and enforces a naval or aerial blockade of Taiwan, interdicting commercial shipping or flights; (2) PLA forces conduct kinetic military strikes against Taiwanese military or civilian targets; (3) Chinese amphibious or airborne forces land on Taiwan-controlled territory including outlying islands such as Kinmen or Matsu. Coercive actions short of these thresholds — including military exercises, cyber operations, economic sanctions, or diplomatic pressure — do not constitute a YES outcome. → ❌ Missed❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%7% of prediction market capital bets on NOTaiwan Unification Deadline — China's 2026 Timeline and the Escalation SpiralTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Unification Deadline — China's 2026 Timeline and the
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A YES outcome requires one or more of the following verifiable events by December 31, 2026: (1) China declares and enforces a naval or aerial blockade of Taiwan, interdicting commercial shipping or flights; (2) PLA forces conduct kinetic military strikes against Taiwanese military or civilian targets; (3) Chinese amphibious or airborne forces land on Taiwan-controlled territory including outlying islands such as Kinmen or Matsu. Coercive actions short of these thresholds — including military exercises, cyber operations, economic sanctions, or diplomatic pressure — do not constitute a YES outcome. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%
7% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Taiwan Unification Deadline — China's 2026 Timeline and the Escalation Spiral
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A confirmed, publicly reported exchange of weapons fire (including missiles, naval gunfire, or directed-energy weapons) between identified US military and Chinese military (PLA) units in the South China Sea. Collisions, water cannon use, laser dazzling, or electronic warfare do not qualify. The exchange must be acknowledged by at least one government's official military or defense ministry statement. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A confirmed, publicly reported exchange of weapons fire (including missiles, naval gunfire, or directed-energy weapons) between identified US military and Chinese military (PLA) units in the South China Sea. Collisions, water cannon use, laser dazzling, or electronic warfare do not qualify. The exchange must be acknowledged by at least one government's official military or defense ministry statement. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral TesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official NATO or member state announcement of new troop deployments, equipment transfers, or permanent basing decisions in Eastern European NATO member states (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, or the Baltic states) explicitly linked to or occurring after Russia's nuclear drill announcement. Routine rotational replacements do not count; the deployment must represent a net increase in force posture. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red LinesTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final6%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral Tes
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official NATO or member state announcement of new troop deployments, equipment transfers, or permanent basing decisions in Eastern European NATO member states (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, or the Baltic states) explicitly linked to or occurring after Russia's nuclear drill announcement. Routine rotational replacements do not count; the deployment must represent a net increase in force posture. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red Lines
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final6%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
6%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Take-All Bid for EOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Measured by enterprise AI platform revenue market share as reported by IDC, Gartner, or equivalent analyst firms in their 2027 market share reports. 'Enterprise AI platform' includes API access, fine-tuning, and integrated AI features sold to businesses (excludes consumer subscriptions). OpenAI must exceed 40% of this segment by revenue for YES. → ❌ Missed❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Take-All Bid for Enterprise AITracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Take-All Bid for E
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Measured by enterprise AI platform revenue market share as reported by IDC, Gartner, or equivalent analyst firms in their 2027 market share reports. 'Enterprise AI platform' includes API access, fine-tuning, and integrated AI features sold to businesses (excludes consumer subscriptions). OpenAI must exceed 40% of this segment by revenue for YES. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Take-All Bid for Enterprise AI
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: xAI's Grok-3 Enters Space AI — The Platform Power Play BeyonOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Grok-3 or a direct successor AI system developed by xAI must be operationally deployed (used in actual mission operations, not just testing or evaluation) on at least 3 space missions conducted by organizations other than SpaceX by December 31, 2030. Missions must be orbital or beyond — suborbital flights do not count. Evidence must come from official mission documentation or xAI/operator announcements. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisxAI's Grok-3 Enters Space AI — The Platform Power Play Beyond EarthTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final88%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: xAI's Grok-3 Enters Space AI — The Platform Power Play Beyon
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Grok-3 or a direct successor AI system developed by xAI must be operationally deployed (used in actual mission operations, not just testing or evaluation) on at least 3 space missions conducted by organizations other than SpaceX by December 31, 2030. Missions must be orbital or beyond — suborbital flights do not count. Evidence must come from official mission documentation or xAI/operator announcements. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
xAI's Grok-3 Enters Space AI — The Platform Power Play Beyond Earth
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final88%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
88%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Unification Deadline 2026 — The Escalation Spiral CauOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese People's Liberation Army carries out military actions involving force (any of live-fire shooting, implementation of a maritime blockade, or the start of a landing operation) against the main island of Taiwan, Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen Island, Matsu Island, Taiping Island, etc.), or the sea area surrounding Taiwan, and this is confirmed by multiple major international media outlets (Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.). Military exercises/intimidation/cyberattacks alone are NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Unification Deadline 2026 — The Escalation Spiral Caused by OverextensionTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Unification Deadline 2026 — The Escalation Spiral Cau
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese People's Liberation Army carries out military actions involving force (any of live-fire shooting, implementation of a maritime blockade, or the start of a landing operation) against the main island of Taiwan, Taiwan's outlying islands (Kinmen Island, Matsu Island, Taiping Island, etc.), or the sea area surrounding Taiwan, and this is confirmed by multiple major international media outlets (Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.). Military exercises/intimidation/cyberattacks alone are NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Unification Deadline 2026 — The Escalation Spiral Caused by Overextension
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Unification Deadline — Beijing's 2026 Timeline and thOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution criteria: YES if by December 31, 2026, the People's Republic of China initiates any of the following against Taiwan: (1) a declared or de facto naval/air blockade preventing commercial shipping from reaching Taiwanese ports, (2) kinetic military strikes (missile, air, or naval) against Taiwanese military or civilian infrastructure, or (3) an amphibious landing operation on Taiwan-controlled territory (including outlying islands such as Kinmen or Matsu). Gray-zone operations (cyber attacks, ADIZ incursions, military exercises in international waters) alone do not qualify. Verification by major international news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC) and/or UN Security Council emergency session convened in response. → ❌ Missed❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%7% of prediction market capital bets on NOTaiwan Unification Deadline — Beijing's 2026 Timeline and the Escalation SpiralTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Unification Deadline — Beijing's 2026 Timeline and th
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution criteria: YES if by December 31, 2026, the People's Republic of China initiates any of the following against Taiwan: (1) a declared or de facto naval/air blockade preventing commercial shipping from reaching Taiwanese ports, (2) kinetic military strikes (missile, air, or naval) against Taiwanese military or civilian infrastructure, or (3) an amphibious landing operation on Taiwan-controlled territory (including outlying islands such as Kinmen or Matsu). Gray-zone operations (cyber attacks, ADIZ incursions, military exercises in international waters) alone do not qualify. Verification by major international news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC) and/or UN Security Council emergency session convened in response. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%
7% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Taiwan Unification Deadline — Beijing's 2026 Timeline and the Escalation Spiral
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near NATO — The Escalation Spiral TiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if NATO or any NATO member officially announces and commences a nuclear readiness exercise, nuclear sharing exercise, or nuclear command-and-control drill within 14 calendar days of the start date of Russia's announced nuclear-capable missile drills near the Polish-Lithuanian border. The exercise must be officially characterized as nuclear-related by NATO, SHAPE, or a participating national defense ministry. Routine Steadfast Noon or similar pre-scheduled exercises do not count unless their timing is explicitly accelerated in response to the Russian drills. NO if no such exercise is announced and commenced within the 14-day window. → ❌ Missed❓ U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NORussia's Nuclear Drills Near NATO — The Escalation Spiral TightensTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near NATO — The Escalation Spiral Ti
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if NATO or any NATO member officially announces and commences a nuclear readiness exercise, nuclear sharing exercise, or nuclear command-and-control drill within 14 calendar days of the start date of Russia's announced nuclear-capable missile drills near the Polish-Lithuanian border. The exercise must be officially characterized as nuclear-related by NATO, SHAPE, or a participating national defense ministry. Routine Steadfast Noon or similar pre-scheduled exercises do not count unless their timing is explicitly accelerated in response to the Russian drills. NO if no such exercise is announced and commenced within the 14-day window. → ❌ Missed
❓ U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near NATO — The Escalation Spiral Tightens
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A verifiable report from the US Department of Defense, China's Ministry of National Defense, or a major international wire service (AP, Reuters, AFP) confirming a physical collision, intentional ramming, warning shots, or any weapons discharge between US and Chinese military vessels or aircraft in the South China Sea between March 24, 2026 and April 24, 2026. Coast guard encounters or incidents involving third-party nations do not qualify unless US and Chinese military forces are directly involved. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A verifiable report from the US Department of Defense, China's Ministry of National Defense, or a major international wire service (AP, Reuters, AFP) confirming a physical collision, intentional ramming, warning shots, or any weapons discharge between US and Chinese military vessels or aircraft in the South China Sea between March 24, 2026 and April 24, 2026. Coast guard encounters or incidents involving third-party nations do not qualify unless US and Chinese military forces are directly involved. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Trap Reshaping AI'sOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A credible survey (conducted by an established research institution, polling organization, or major AI conference with 100+ respondent AI researchers holding PhD-level credentials) published by December 31, 2026 shows more than 50% of respondents agreeing that AlphaThink constitutes AGI. If no such survey is conducted by the deadline, the answer is NO by default. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Trap Reshaping AI's FutureTracker-only基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final58%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Trap Reshaping AI's
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A credible survey (conducted by an established research institution, polling organization, or major AI conference with 100+ respondent AI researchers holding PhD-level credentials) published by December 31, 2026 shows more than 50% of respondents agreeing that AlphaThink constitutes AGI. If no such survey is conducted by the deadline, the answer is NO by default. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Trap Reshaping AI's Future
Tracker-only
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final58%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
58%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 58.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.18
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — The Compliance Trap That ReshaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Full compliance is defined as: all five named AI labs (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta AI, xAI) have received formal certification of compliance from the IASB or equivalent national regulatory authority by December 31, 2027. If any one of the five has not received certification, or if the IASB has not established a certification process by that date, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Regulation Summit — The Compliance Trap That Reshapes PowerTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final14%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — The Compliance Trap That Resha
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Full compliance is defined as: all five named AI labs (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta AI, xAI) have received formal certification of compliance from the IASB or equivalent national regulatory authority by December 31, 2027. If any one of the five has not received certification, or if the IASB has not established a certification process by that date, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Regulation Summit — The Compliance Trap That Reshapes Power
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final14%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
14%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai/google
Referenced knowledge
entity:openaientity:google
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran-US Shadow Diplomacy — Dueling Narratives Mask an EnergyOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 23% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed US military strike specifically targeting Iranian oil, gas, or energy infrastructure (refineries, export terminals, pipelines, storage facilities) as reported by US Department of Defense, credible international media, or satellite imagery verification by April 15, 2026. Cyber attacks or covert sabotage do not count; must be an acknowledged kinetic military strike. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-US Shadow Diplomacy — Dueling Narratives Mask an Energy Crisis SpiralTracker-only基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final35%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran-US Shadow Diplomacy — Dueling Narratives Mask an Energy
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 23% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed US military strike specifically targeting Iranian oil, gas, or energy infrastructure (refineries, export terminals, pipelines, storage facilities) as reported by US Department of Defense, credible international media, or satellite imagery verification by April 15, 2026. Cyber attacks or covert sabotage do not count; must be an acknowledged kinetic military strike. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-US Shadow Diplomacy — Dueling Narratives Mask an Energy Crisis Spiral
Tracker-only
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final35%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
35%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hegseth's Iran Hawkishness — The Pentagon's Loyalty Test ResOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: At least three distinct rounds of direct U.S.-Iran military strikes (not proxy actions) must be publicly confirmed by official U.S. Department of Defense statements or credible international reporting by June 30, 2026. Proxy attacks by Iranian-backed groups do not count unless accompanied by direct Iranian military action (missile launches from Iranian territory, Iranian naval operations, etc.). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHegseth's Iran Hawkishness — The Pentagon's Loyalty Test Reshapes War PolicyTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hegseth's Iran Hawkishness — The Pentagon's Loyalty Test Res
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least three distinct rounds of direct U.S.-Iran military strikes (not proxy actions) must be publicly confirmed by official U.S. Department of Defense statements or credible international reporting by June 30, 2026. Proxy attacks by Iranian-backed groups do not count unless accompanied by direct Iranian military action (missile launches from Iranian territory, Iranian naval operations, etc.). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hegseth's Iran Hawkishness — The Pentagon's Loyalty Test Reshapes War Policy
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/ethereum
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:ethereum
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: WTI Crude Plummets 14% — Mideast Risk Premium's Fragility ExOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the closing price of the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (front-month contract) on June 30, 2026 is $90.00 or higher; NO if it is less. Judgment is based on the closing price, not a temporary intraday breach. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisWTI Crude Plummets 14% — Mideast Risk Premium's Fragility Exposed by Trump's Iran DelayArticle-backed基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final35%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: WTI Crude Plummets 14% — Mideast Risk Premium's Fragility Ex
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the closing price of the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (front-month contract) on June 30, 2026 is $90.00 or higher; NO if it is less. Judgment is based on the closing price, not a temporary intraday breach. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
WTI Crude Plummets 14% — Mideast Risk Premium's Fragility Exposed by Trump's Iran Delay
Article-backed
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final35%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
35%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: WTI Crude Crashes 14% — Trump's Iran Pause Exposes Oil's GeoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: WTI front-month futures (NYMEX CL1) daily settlement price below $80.00/bbl on at least one trading day between March 24 and April 30, 2026, as reported by CME Group official settlement data. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisWTI Crude Crashes 14% — Trump's Iran Pause Exposes Oil's Geopolitical FragilityTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final56%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: WTI Crude Crashes 14% — Trump's Iran Pause Exposes Oil's Geo
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: WTI front-month futures (NYMEX CL1) daily settlement price below $80.00/bbl on at least one trading day between March 24 and April 30, 2026, as reported by CME Group official settlement data. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
WTI Crude Crashes 14% — Trump's Iran Pause Exposes Oil's Geopolitical Fragility
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final56%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
56%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Unification by 2026 — The Structure of East Asian CriOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese People's Liberation Army directly uses force such as live ammunition, missiles, or bombing against Taiwan's territorial waters (within 12 nautical miles from the coastline) or airspace, and the Taiwanese government or an international news organization (Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) reports this as a "military attack" or "use of force." Gray zone operations (ADIZ incursions, maritime blockade, cyberattacks only) are NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Unification by 2026 — The Structure of East Asian Crisis in EscalationTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Unification by 2026 — The Structure of East Asian Cri
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if, by December 31, 2026, the Chinese People's Liberation Army directly uses force such as live ammunition, missiles, or bombing against Taiwan's territorial waters (within 12 nautical miles from the coastline) or airspace, and the Taiwanese government or an international news organization (Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) reports this as a "military attack" or "use of force." Gray zone operations (ADIZ incursions, maritime blockade, cyberattacks only) are NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Unification by 2026 — The Structure of East Asian Crisis in Escalation
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Unification Deadline — China's 2026 Timeline IgnitesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP) or official government statements documenting an exchange of live fire (not warning shots into the water, not accidental discharge, but intentional hostile fire) between PLA military units and Taiwanese, US, or Japanese military units in or within 200 nautical miles of the Taiwan Strait. Cyber operations, economic sanctions, and non-kinetic actions do not qualify. → ❌ Missed❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%7% of prediction market capital bets on NOTaiwan Unification Deadline — China's 2026 Timeline Ignites Escalation SpiralTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Unification Deadline — China's 2026 Timeline Ignites
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP) or official government statements documenting an exchange of live fire (not warning shots into the water, not accidental discharge, but intentional hostile fire) between PLA military units and Taiwanese, US, or Japanese military units in or within 200 nautical miles of the Taiwan Strait. Cyber operations, economic sanctions, and non-kinetic actions do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%
7% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Taiwan Unification Deadline — China's 2026 Timeline Ignites Escalation Spiral
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan/japan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwanentity:japandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran-Israel Nuclear Strike — The Escalation Spiral No One CaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, or equivalent) that Iran launched missiles or armed drones from Iranian sovereign territory, operated by IRGC or Iranian military forces, that struck or were directed at targets within Israel's internationally recognized borders, within 30 days of the Natanz strike. Proxy attacks by Hezbollah, Houthis, or Iraqi militias do NOT count. Cyber attacks do NOT count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Israel Nuclear Strike — The Escalation Spiral No One Can ControlTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final32%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran-Israel Nuclear Strike — The Escalation Spiral No One Ca
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, or equivalent) that Iran launched missiles or armed drones from Iranian sovereign territory, operated by IRGC or Iranian military forces, that struck or were directed at targets within Israel's internationally recognized borders, within 30 days of the Natanz strike. Proxy attacks by Hezbollah, Houthis, or Iraqi militias do NOT count. Cyber attacks do NOT count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Israel Nuclear Strike — The Escalation Spiral No One Can Control
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final32%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
32%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 68.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.10
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Trap Reshaping AI'sOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A credible survey of at least 500 AI/ML researchers (e.g., by AI Impacts, the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, or a comparable organization) conducted in Q4 2026 shows that more than 50% of respondents agree that AlphaThink constitutes AGI. If no such survey is conducted, the question resolves as NO by default. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Trap Reshaping AI's FutureTracker-only基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final58%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Trap Reshaping AI's
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A credible survey of at least 500 AI/ML researchers (e.g., by AI Impacts, the Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, or a comparable organization) conducted in Q4 2026 shows that more than 50% of respondents agree that AlphaThink constitutes AGI. If no such survey is conducted, the question resolves as NO by default. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Trap Reshaping AI's Future
Tracker-only
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final58%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
58%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 58.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.18
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will a formal military standoff — defined as the sustained deployment of additional naval or air assets by either the US or China to the Taiwan Strait beyond pre-incident baseline levels for more than 72 consecutive hours — occur by 2026-04-01?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral NeitheOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Judged YES if credible reporting (Reuters, AP, official DoD/PLA statements, or verified satellite imagery from open-source intelligence sources) confirms that either the United States or China deployed additional naval combatants or extended air patrol coverage in the Taiwan Strait beyond established Q1 2026 baselines for a continuous period exceeding 72 hours between March 25 and April 1, 2026. Judged NO if no such sustained additional deployment is confirmed by April 1. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can AffordTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will a formal military standoff — defined as the sustained deployment of additional naval or air assets by either the US or China to the Taiwan Strait beyond pre-incident baseline levels for more than 72 consecutive hours — occur by 2026-04-01?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neithe
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Judged YES if credible reporting (Reuters, AP, official DoD/PLA statements, or verified satellite imagery from open-source intelligence sources) confirms that either the United States or China deployed additional naval combatants or extended air patrol coverage in the Taiwan Strait beyond established Q1 2026 baselines for a continuous period exceeding 72 hours between March 25 and April 1, 2026. Judged NO if no such sustained additional deployment is confirmed by April 1. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: cb43ce1bbc03 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $150K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Reshapes DOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinMarketCap (volume-weighted average) is above $150,000.00 USD. If above $150,000 = YES. If at or below $150,000 = NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOBitcoin's $150K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Reshapes Digital Asset ClassTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $150K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Reshapes D
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinMarketCap (volume-weighted average) is above $150,000.00 USD. If above $150,000 = YES. If at or below $150,000 = NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Bitcoin's $150K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Reshapes Digital Asset Class
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Gambit fOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Enterprise AI platform market share is measured by revenue share among the top five AI platform providers (OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft standalone) as reported by Gartner, IDC, or equivalent analyst firm in their Q3 2026 market tracker. GPT-6 / OpenAI must exceed 40% revenue share to resolve YES. → ❌ Missed❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOGPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Gambit for Enterprise AITracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Gambit f
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Enterprise AI platform market share is measured by revenue share among the top five AI platform providers (OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft standalone) as reported by Gartner, IDC, or equivalent analyst firm in their Q3 2026 market tracker. GPT-6 / OpenAI must exceed 40% revenue share to resolve YES. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
GPT-6 Multimodal Launch — OpenAI's Winner-Takes-All Gambit for Enterprise AI
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO collectively impose a new formal sanctions package on Russia specifically in response to the March 2026 chemical weapon allegations by April 4, 2026?Key Event: Russia's Chemical Weapon Allegations — Escalation Spiral TesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: A new, formally adopted NATO-endorsed or EU sanctions package (the 15th package or equivalent) explicitly referencing the chemical weapon allegations must be announced through official NATO or EU Council channels by April 4, 2026. Statements of intent, ongoing deliberations, or individual country sanctions do not count — it must be a collectively agreed package. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Chemical Weapon Allegations — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red LinesTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO collectively impose a new formal sanctions package on Russia specifically in response to the March 2026 chemical weapon allegations by April 4, 2026?
Key Event: Russia's Chemical Weapon Allegations — Escalation Spiral Tes
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: A new, formally adopted NATO-endorsed or EU sanctions package (the 15th package or equivalent) explicitly referencing the chemical weapon allegations must be announced through official NATO or EU Council channels by April 4, 2026. Statements of intent, ongoing deliberations, or individual country sanctions do not count — it must be a collectively agreed package. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Chemical Weapon Allegations — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red Lines
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 0b59109c09c9 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: DeepMind's Quantum AI Drug Discovery — The Race to Own HealtOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if by September 30, 2026, the US Congress, European Commission, or UK Parliament has announced or conducted a formal hearing, inquiry, or investigation specifically addressing ethical or regulatory concerns about Google DeepMind's quantum AI drug discovery system. Informal media criticism or academic commentary does not count. The inquiry must be officially announced and specifically reference DeepMind's quantum AI pharmaceutical capabilities. → ❌ Missed❓ Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NODeepMind's Quantum AI Drug Discovery — The Race to Own Healthcare's Next PlatformTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: DeepMind's Quantum AI Drug Discovery — The Race to Own Healt
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if by September 30, 2026, the US Congress, European Commission, or UK Parliament has announced or conducted a formal hearing, inquiry, or investigation specifically addressing ethical or regulatory concerns about Google DeepMind's quantum AI drug discovery system. Informal media criticism or academic commentary does not count. The inquiry must be officially announced and specifically reference DeepMind's quantum AI pharmaceutical capabilities. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
DeepMind's Quantum AI Drug Discovery — The Race to Own Healthcare's Next Platform
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum/eu/google
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumentity:euentity:google
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Georgia's 14th District Runoff — Post-Greene Realignment TesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: Based on official certified results from the Georgia Secretary of State for the April 7, 2026 special election runoff in the 14th Congressional District: if the Republican candidate's margin of victory exceeds 20 percentage points, the answer is YES; if the margin is 20 points or less (or the Democrat wins), the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGeorgia's 14th District Runoff — Post-Greene Realignment Tests GOP Populism's LimitsTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final98%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Georgia's 14th District Runoff — Post-Greene Realignment Tes
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: Based on official certified results from the Georgia Secretary of State for the April 7, 2026 special election runoff in the 14th Congressional District: if the Republican candidate's margin of victory exceeds 20 percentage points, the answer is YES; if the margin is 20 points or less (or the Democrat wins), the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Georgia's 14th District Runoff — Post-Greene Realignment Tests GOP Populism's Limits
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final98%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
98%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 98.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: New Zealand's Fuel Subsidy — When Energy Crises Birth New WeOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: The New Zealand government's direct cash payment program for fuel costs, announced March 2026 and launched 1 April 2026, is still distributing payments to eligible families as of 1 April 2027 — whether in its original form, an expanded form, or a renamed/restructured successor program serving the same purpose. → ❌ Missed❓ Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NONew Zealand's Fuel Subsidy — When Energy Crises Birth New Welfare StatesTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: New Zealand's Fuel Subsidy — When Energy Crises Birth New We
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: The New Zealand government's direct cash payment program for fuel costs, announced March 2026 and launched 1 April 2026, is still distributing payments to eligible families as of 1 April 2027 — whether in its original form, an expanded form, or a renamed/restructured successor program serving the same purpose. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
New Zealand's Fuel Subsidy — When Energy Crises Birth New Welfare States
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Stablecoin Law — Regulatory Clarity Reshapes the $200B DiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: Using CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap aggregate stablecoin market cap data on December 31, 2026: if total stablecoin market cap is $252 billion or higher, the answer is YES. If below $252 billion, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOUS Stablecoin Law — Regulatory Clarity Reshapes the $200B Digital Dollar RaceArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Stablecoin Law — Regulatory Clarity Reshapes the $200B Di
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: Using CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap aggregate stablecoin market cap data on December 31, 2026: if total stablecoin market cap is $252 billion or higher, the answer is YES. If below $252 billion, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
US Stablecoin Law — Regulatory Clarity Reshapes the $200B Digital Dollar Race
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Illusion and the RacOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A peer-reviewed survey of 500+ AI researchers published in a recognized journal or conducted by a recognized institution (e.g., AI Index, AAAI, NeurIPS community survey) shows >50% of respondents agreeing that AlphaThink qualifies as AGI. If no such survey is published by the deadline, the answer defaults to NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Illusion and the Race to Define IntelligenceTracker-only基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final58%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Illusion and the Rac
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A peer-reviewed survey of 500+ AI researchers published in a recognized journal or conducted by a recognized institution (e.g., AI Index, AAAI, NeurIPS community survey) shows >50% of respondents agreeing that AlphaThink qualifies as AGI. If no such survey is published by the deadline, the answer defaults to NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AlphaThink's AGI Claims — The Benchmark Illusion and the Race to Define Intelligence
Tracker-only
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final58%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
58%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 58.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.18
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO collectively impose new sanctions on Russia specifically in response to the March 2026 Donetsk chemical weapon allegations by April 4, 2026?Key Event: Russia's Chemical Weapon Allegations — Escalation Tests NATOOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO or the EU officially announces at least one new sanctions package (designations, sectoral restrictions, or asset freezes) explicitly citing the March 2026 chemical weapon allegations as justification, adopted by consensus or qualified majority by April 4, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Chemical Weapon Allegations — Escalation Tests NATO SanctionsTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO collectively impose new sanctions on Russia specifically in response to the March 2026 Donetsk chemical weapon allegations by April 4, 2026?
Key Event: Russia's Chemical Weapon Allegations — Escalation Tests NATO
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO or the EU officially announces at least one new sanctions package (designations, sectoral restrictions, or asset freezes) explicitly citing the March 2026 chemical weapon allegations as justification, adopted by consensus or qualified majority by April 4, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Chemical Weapon Allegations — Escalation Tests NATO Sanctions
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 08dbf1e2368b (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Georgia's 14th District Runoff — Iran Hawks vs. Populists ReOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 69% confidence➡ Verdict: Official certified results from the Georgia Secretary of State showing Clay Fuller's margin of victory exceeds 15 percentage points over Shawn Harris. If Fuller wins by exactly 15.0 points, this resolves NO (must exceed, not equal). If Harris wins, this resolves NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGeorgia's 14th District Runoff — Iran Hawks vs. Populists Reshape GOPTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final98%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Georgia's 14th District Runoff — Iran Hawks vs. Populists Re
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 69% confidence
➡ Verdict: Official certified results from the Georgia Secretary of State showing Clay Fuller's margin of victory exceeds 15 percentage points over Shawn Harris. If Fuller wins by exactly 15.0 points, this resolves NO (must exceed, not equal). If Harris wins, this resolves NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Georgia's 14th District Runoff — Iran Hawks vs. Populists Reshape GOP
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final98%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
98%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 69.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 98.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.10) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: New Zealand's Fuel Subsidy — Energy Crises Rewrite Social CoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: The New Zealand government is still making regular cash payments to low-income families explicitly linked to fuel costs as of 31 March 2027, regardless of whether the programme name, payment amount, or eligibility criteria have changed from the original April 2026 launch. The programme must still exist in some form — rebranding or expansion counts as continuation, but complete termination or replacement with a fundamentally different mechanism (e.g., fuel tax cut only) counts as discontinuation. → ❌ Missed❓ Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NONew Zealand's Fuel Subsidy — Energy Crises Rewrite Social ContractTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: New Zealand's Fuel Subsidy — Energy Crises Rewrite Social Co
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: The New Zealand government is still making regular cash payments to low-income families explicitly linked to fuel costs as of 31 March 2027, regardless of whether the programme name, payment amount, or eligibility criteria have changed from the original April 2026 launch. The programme must still exist in some form — rebranding or expansion counts as continuation, but complete termination or replacement with a fundamentally different mechanism (e.g., fuel tax cut only) counts as discontinuation. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
New Zealand's Fuel Subsidy — Energy Crises Rewrite Social Contract
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills — Escalation NATO Cannot IgnoreOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolves YES if NATO officially announces and begins execution of any nuclear-specific readiness exercise (e.g., Steadfast Noon, or any ad hoc exercise explicitly involving B-61 nuclear weapons, dual-capable aircraft nuclear certification flights, or nuclear command-and-control drills) between 2026-03-25 and 2026-04-30. Routine conventional exercises that do not explicitly involve nuclear weapons platforms or nuclear command procedures do not qualify. The announcement must come from NATO SHAPE, SACEUR, or an official NATO member defense ministry. → ❌ Missed❓ U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NORussia's Nuclear Drills — Escalation NATO Cannot IgnoreArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills — Escalation NATO Cannot Ignore
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolves YES if NATO officially announces and begins execution of any nuclear-specific readiness exercise (e.g., Steadfast Noon, or any ad hoc exercise explicitly involving B-61 nuclear weapons, dual-capable aircraft nuclear certification flights, or nuclear command-and-control drills) between 2026-03-25 and 2026-04-30. Routine conventional exercises that do not explicitly involve nuclear weapons platforms or nuclear command procedures do not qualify. The announcement must come from NATO SHAPE, SACEUR, or an official NATO member defense ministry. → ❌ Missed
❓ U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Russia's Nuclear Drills — Escalation NATO Cannot Ignore
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: EU AI Regulation Act — Compliance Reshapes Global AIOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by December 31, 2027, any company ranked in the top 10 globally by AI-related revenue (as per IDC, Gartner, or equivalent industry ranking) issues an official announcement or SEC/regulatory filing stating that it is relocating its primary corporate headquarters or principal AI research center out of the EU, with the EU AI Regulation Act cited as a contributing factor. Resolved NO if no such announcement occurs by the deadline. Note: Shifting incremental new investment or hiring to non-EU locations does not count; the criterion requires a formal headquarters or primary research center relocation announcement. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOEU AI Regulation Act — Compliance Reshapes Global AIArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: EU AI Regulation Act — Compliance Reshapes Global AI
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by December 31, 2027, any company ranked in the top 10 globally by AI-related revenue (as per IDC, Gartner, or equivalent industry ranking) issues an official announcement or SEC/regulatory filing stating that it is relocating its primary corporate headquarters or principal AI research center out of the EU, with the EU AI Regulation Act cited as a contributing factor. Resolved NO if no such announcement occurs by the deadline. Note: Shifting incremental new investment or hiring to non-EU locations does not count; the criterion requires a formal headquarters or primary research center relocation announcement. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Panathinaikos win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
EU AI Regulation Act — Compliance Reshapes Global AI
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's DeFi Regulation — 'Regulatory Capture' RestructuresOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if a regulatory bill including KYC obligations for DeFi projects is passed by both houses of the Japanese Diet and enacted by March 31, 2026. NO if the bill is submitted but not passed, or if it is subject to continued deliberation. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's DeFi Regulation — 'Regulatory Capture' Restructures CryptoTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's DeFi Regulation — 'Regulatory Capture' Restructures
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if a regulatory bill including KYC obligations for DeFi projects is passed by both houses of the Japanese Diet and enacted by March 31, 2026. NO if the bill is submitted but not passed, or if it is subject to continued deliberation. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's DeFi Regulation — 'Regulatory Capture' Restructures Crypto
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: f587af58279f (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea's Missile Revival — Escalation Japan Cannot IgnoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if an official Japanese government document explicitly categorizes North Korean missile capabilities as a 'direct threat' to Japan's national security by December 31, 2026. NO for routine press conference statements or media characterizations. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea's Missile Revival — Escalation Japan Cannot IgnoreArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final12%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea's Missile Revival — Escalation Japan Cannot Igno
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if an official Japanese government document explicitly categorizes North Korean missile capabilities as a 'direct threat' to Japan's national security by December 31, 2026. NO for routine press conference statements or media characterizations. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea's Missile Revival — Escalation Japan Cannot Ignore
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final12%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
12%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/north-korea / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:north-koreadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — How US-China Military BrinkmanshiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Japan's Ministry of Defense or Ministry of Finance officially announces combined FY2026 defense spending (initial budget plus any supplementary budgets) exceeding ¥9 trillion. The figure must be the approved/enacted amount, not a request or proposal. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Standoff — How US-China Military Brinkmanship Is Reshaping Japan's Defense CalculusArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final96%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — How US-China Military Brinkmanshi
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Japan's Ministry of Defense or Ministry of Finance officially announces combined FY2026 defense spending (initial budget plus any supplementary budgets) exceeding ¥9 trillion. The figure must be the approved/enacted amount, not a request or proposal. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Standoff — How US-China Military Brinkmanship Is Reshaping Japan's Defense Calculus
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final96%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
96%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 77.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 96.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.05) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $150K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the ROur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's spot price (as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap global average) must remain above $150,000 on every weekly close (Sunday 23:59 UTC) from the date of publication through June 30, 2026. A single weekly close below $150,000 resolves the question as NO. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOBitcoin's $150K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Rules of Digital GoldArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $150K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the R
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin's spot price (as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap global average) must remain above $150,000 on every weekly close (Sunday 23:59 UTC) from the date of publication through June 30, 2026. A single weekly close below $150,000 resolves the question as NO. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Bitcoin's $150K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Rules of Digital Gold
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional Herding Rewrites thOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (aggregated across major exchanges) is checked. If the price is $120,000.00 or higher, the answer is YES. If it is below $120,000.00, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional Herding Rewrites the Risk CalculusArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional Herding Rewrites th
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (aggregated across major exchanges) is checked. If the price is $120,000.00 or higher, the answer is YES. If it is below $120,000.00, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional Herding Rewrites the Risk Calculus
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin ¥5M Breakout Prediction — Institutional Investor EntOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the daily closing price (UTC 23:59) of BTC/JPY reaches 5,000,000 yen or more at least once on any of the following exchanges: bitFlyer, Coincheck, or GMO Coin, during the period from January 1, 2026, to March 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin ¥5M Breakout Prediction — Institutional Investor Entry Changes Crypto's Structural StatusTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin ¥5M Breakout Prediction — Institutional Investor Ent
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the daily closing price (UTC 23:59) of BTC/JPY reaches 5,000,000 yen or more at least once on any of the following exchanges: bitFlyer, Coincheck, or GMO Coin, during the period from January 1, 2026, to March 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin ¥5M Breakout Prediction — Institutional Investor Entry Changes Crypto's Structural Status
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Bitcoin's price exceed ¥5,000,000 on any major Japanese exchange (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or bitbank) at any point during Q1 2026 (January 1 – March 31, 2026)?Key Event: Bitcoin's ¥5M Breakout — Institutional Capital Rewrites theOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin/JPY spot price on bitFlyer, Coincheck, or bitbank must reach or exceed ¥5,000,000 on at least one trading day between January 1 and March 31, 2026, as recorded by the exchange's official price data or verified by CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap JPY price. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's ¥5M Breakout — Institutional Capital Rewrites the Crypto PlaybookArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Bitcoin's price exceed ¥5,000,000 on any major Japanese exchange (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or bitbank) at any point during Q1 2026 (January 1 – March 31, 2026)?
Key Event: Bitcoin's ¥5M Breakout — Institutional Capital Rewrites the
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin/JPY spot price on bitFlyer, Coincheck, or bitbank must reach or exceed ¥5,000,000 on at least one trading day between January 1 and March 31, 2026, as recorded by the exchange's official price data or verified by CoinGecko/CoinMarketCap JPY price. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's ¥5M Breakout — Institutional Capital Rewrites the Crypto Playbook
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 77.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.05)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: 68c407c1857e (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A verified incident in which United States and Chinese military personnel or platforms engage in direct hostile contact — including exchange of weapons fire (intentional or accidental), a collision between military vessels or aircraft resulting in at least one confirmed casualty, or the forced downing or disabling of a military aircraft — occurring within the geographic boundaries of the South China Sea (as commonly defined by the area enclosed by the coasts of southern China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, and Taiwan) between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. The incident must be confirmed by official statements from at least one of the two governments or by a credible international body. Coast guard encounters and non-contact intercepts do not qualify. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A verified incident in which United States and Chinese military personnel or platforms engage in direct hostile contact — including exchange of weapons fire (intentional or accidental), a collision between military vessels or aircraft resulting in at least one confirmed casualty, or the forced downing or disabling of a military aircraft — occurring within the geographic boundaries of the South China Sea (as commonly defined by the area enclosed by the coasts of southern China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, and Taiwan) between 2026-01-01 and 2026-12-31. The incident must be confirmed by official statements from at least one of the two governments or by a credible international body. Coast guard encounters and non-contact intercepts do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense (or credible third-party sources such as Reuters, AP, or satellite imagery analysis) of intentional weapons fire (including warning shots that cause damage) or deliberate ramming resulting in at least one confirmed casualty on either side, occurring in the South China Sea between US Navy and PLA Navy vessels between 2026-03-25 and 2026-04-25. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense (or credible third-party sources such as Reuters, AP, or satellite imagery analysis) of intentional weapons fire (including warning shots that cause damage) or deliberate ramming resulting in at least one confirmed casualty on either side, occurring in the South China Sea between US Navy and PLA Navy vessels between 2026-03-25 and 2026-04-25. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: DHS Shutdown Standoff — Immigration Becomes the New Debt CeiOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Full resolution is defined as: all DHS component agencies (including ICE) are funded and operational under either a full-year appropriations bill, an omnibus package, or a continuing resolution signed by the President. A partial deal that funds some DHS agencies but not ICE does not count as full resolution. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisDHS Shutdown Standoff — Immigration Becomes the New Debt CeilingTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final80%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: DHS Shutdown Standoff — Immigration Becomes the New Debt Cei
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Full resolution is defined as: all DHS component agencies (including ICE) are funded and operational under either a full-year appropriations bill, an omnibus package, or a continuing resolution signed by the President. A partial deal that funds some DHS agencies but not ICE does not count as full resolution. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
DHS Shutdown Standoff — Immigration Becomes the New Debt Ceiling
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final80%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
80%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Steinmeier's Rebuke — Transatlantic Alliance Fractures OverOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Verifiable through official German government announcements or diplomatic records. A formal recall means the ambassador is summoned home for consultations or the embassy is downgraded. Temporary consultations lasting less than 7 days do not count. The action must be explicitly linked to the US-Iran conflict. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSteinmeier's Rebuke — Transatlantic Alliance Fractures Over Iran EscalationTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final16%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Steinmeier's Rebuke — Transatlantic Alliance Fractures Over
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verifiable through official German government announcements or diplomatic records. A formal recall means the ambassador is summoned home for consultations or the embassy is downgraded. Temporary consultations lasting less than 7 days do not count. The action must be explicitly linked to the US-Iran conflict. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Steinmeier's Rebuke — Transatlantic Alliance Fractures Over Iran Escalation
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final16%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
16%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Moldova's Energy Emergency — Russia Weaponizes InfrastructurOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Official announcement by the Moldovan government that the energy sector state of emergency has been formally lifted/terminated. Partial relaxation or extension with modifications does not count as lifted — the emergency declaration must be fully rescinded. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisMoldova's Energy Emergency — Russia Weaponizes Infrastructure Beyond BordersTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final78%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Moldova's Energy Emergency — Russia Weaponizes Infrastructur
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Official announcement by the Moldovan government that the energy sector state of emergency has been formally lifted/terminated. Partial relaxation or extension with modifications does not count as lifted — the emergency declaration must be fully rescinded. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Moldova's Energy Emergency — Russia Weaponizes Infrastructure Beyond Borders
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final78%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
78%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia
Referenced knowledge
entity:russia
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Stablecoin Crackdown — Compliance Becomes the New MoatOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 9% confidence➡ Verdict: Measured by USDC market capitalization as a percentage of total stablecoin market capitalization (including USDT, BUSD, DAI, TUSD, FRAX, and all other stablecoins) as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap on December 31, 2026. USDC must hold 70.0% or greater of total stablecoin market cap for the answer to be YES. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 18%18% of prediction market capital bets on NOUS Stablecoin Crackdown — Compliance Becomes the New MoatTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final18%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Stablecoin Crackdown — Compliance Becomes the New Moat
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 9% confidence
➡ Verdict: Measured by USDC market capitalization as a percentage of total stablecoin market capitalization (including USDT, BUSD, DAI, TUSD, FRAX, and all other stablecoins) as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap on December 31, 2026. USDC must hold 70.0% or greater of total stablecoin market cap for the answer to be YES. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 18%
18% of prediction market capital bets on NO
US Stablecoin Crackdown — Compliance Becomes the New Moat
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final18%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
18%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO officially announce an increase in troop deployments to Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltic states, or Romania) in direct response to Russia's March 2026 missile test by April 9, 2026?Key Event: Russia's Missile Test Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral NOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: An official NATO communiqué, Supreme Allied Commander Europe statement, or announcement by at least two NATO member states confirming new or accelerated troop deployments to Eastern European member states, explicitly referencing Russia's March 2026 missile test as a factor in the decision. Reaffirmation of previously scheduled deployments without new elements does not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Missile Test Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot IgnoreArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO officially announce an increase in troop deployments to Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltic states, or Romania) in direct response to Russia's March 2026 missile test by April 9, 2026?
Key Event: Russia's Missile Test Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral N
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: An official NATO communiqué, Supreme Allied Commander Europe statement, or announcement by at least two NATO member states confirming new or accelerated troop deployments to Eastern European member states, explicitly referencing Russia's March 2026 missile test as a factor in the decision. Reaffirmation of previously scheduled deployments without new elements does not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Missile Test Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot Ignore
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: f5ca97028e98 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Meets StructurOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: On 2026-06-30 at 23:59 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (aggregated across major exchanges) must be above $120,000.00 USD for the answer to be YES. If the price is at or below $120,000.00, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Meets Structural Supply CrisisArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Meets Structur
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: On 2026-06-30 at 23:59 UTC, Bitcoin's spot price on CoinGecko (aggregated across major exchanges) must be above $120,000.00 USD for the answer to be YES. If the price is at or below $120,000.00, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakout — Institutional FOMO Meets Structural Supply Crisis
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Missile Shield for Taiwan — The Escalation Spiral That CoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, AFP, Bloomberg, or equivalent) or official PLA/Chinese MoD announcements of military exercises in the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan involving 50 or more naval vessels or explicitly described as simulated blockade operations, conducted between the date of the US deployment confirmation and April 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Missile Shield for Taiwan — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape AsiaTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌manifold final38%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Missile Shield for Taiwan — The Escalation Spiral That Co
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, AFP, Bloomberg, or equivalent) or official PLA/Chinese MoD announcements of military exercises in the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan involving 50 or more naval vessels or explicitly described as simulated blockade operations, conducted between the date of the US deployment confirmation and April 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Missile Shield for Taiwan — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape Asia
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
manifold final38%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
38%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Yemen Proxy War Reignites — Iran-Saudi Escalation Spiral ThrOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal ceasefire is defined as: (1) an official written agreement signed or endorsed by both Houthi (Ansar Allah) leadership and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government; AND (2) acknowledged by the UN Secretary-General or Special Envoy for Yemen as a ceasefire in an official statement. Informal truces, unilateral pauses, or de-escalation without a formal agreement do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisYemen Proxy War Reignites — Iran-Saudi Escalation Spiral Threatens Regional OrderArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Yemen Proxy War Reignites — Iran-Saudi Escalation Spiral Thr
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal ceasefire is defined as: (1) an official written agreement signed or endorsed by both Houthi (Ansar Allah) leadership and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government; AND (2) acknowledged by the UN Secretary-General or Special Envoy for Yemen as a ceasefire in an official statement. Informal truces, unilateral pauses, or de-escalation without a formal agreement do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Yemen Proxy War Reignites — Iran-Saudi Escalation Spiral Threatens Regional Order
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:irandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: DHS Shutdown Stalemate — When Governing Becomes a Leverage GOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: A bill providing funding for the Department of Homeland Security (either a full-year appropriation, continuing resolution, or omnibus package that includes DHS funding) is signed into law by the President by April 30, 2026, ending the shutdown of DHS agencies. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisDHS Shutdown Stalemate — When Governing Becomes a Leverage GameTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final80%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: DHS Shutdown Stalemate — When Governing Becomes a Leverage G
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: A bill providing funding for the Department of Homeland Security (either a full-year appropriation, continuing resolution, or omnibus package that includes DHS funding) is signed into law by the President by April 30, 2026, ending the shutdown of DHS agencies. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
DHS Shutdown Stalemate — When Governing Becomes a Leverage Game
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final80%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
80%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Chokepoint — Europe's Diesel Lifeline Faces April DeaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if any EU-27 member state officially announces and implements mandatory fuel rationing, purchase limits, or government-directed emergency fuel allocation measures (beyond voluntary conservation requests) at any point before April 30, 2026. Resolved NO if no EU member state implements such measures by that date. Strategic petroleum reserve releases alone do not count as rationing; the measure must restrict consumer or commercial fuel purchases. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Chokepoint — Europe's Diesel Lifeline Faces April DeadlineTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final21%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Chokepoint — Europe's Diesel Lifeline Faces April Dea
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if any EU-27 member state officially announces and implements mandatory fuel rationing, purchase limits, or government-directed emergency fuel allocation measures (beyond voluntary conservation requests) at any point before April 30, 2026. Resolved NO if no EU member state implements such measures by that date. Strategic petroleum reserve releases alone do not count as rationing; the measure must restrict consumer or commercial fuel purchases. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Chokepoint — Europe's Diesel Lifeline Faces April Deadline
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final21%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
21%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Germany vs. Trump on Iran — Alliance Strain Exposes TransatlOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if by September 30, 2026, the German government officially announces any of the following: (1) restrictions on U.S. military use of Ramstein Air Base or other German-based facilities for Iran operations; (2) formal recall of the German ambassador to Washington for consultations; or (3) official suspension of any military cooperation program with the United States. Resolved NO if none of these actions are taken by the deadline, regardless of rhetorical statements. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGermany vs. Trump on Iran — Alliance Strain Exposes Transatlantic FractureTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final5%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Germany vs. Trump on Iran — Alliance Strain Exposes Transatl
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if by September 30, 2026, the German government officially announces any of the following: (1) restrictions on U.S. military use of Ramstein Air Base or other German-based facilities for Iran operations; (2) formal recall of the German ambassador to Washington for consultations; or (3) official suspension of any military cooperation program with the United States. Resolved NO if none of these actions are taken by the deadline, regardless of rhetorical statements. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Germany vs. Trump on Iran — Alliance Strain Exposes Transatlantic Fracture
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final5%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
5%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Moldova's Power Line Cut — Energy Weaponization Spills BeyonOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Moldova's government officially declares a state of emergency, crisis situation, or equivalent legal emergency measure in the energy sector, citing damage to cross-border transmission infrastructure caused by Russian military strikes, at least once between March 26 and June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisMoldova's Power Line Cut — Energy Weaponization Spills Beyond Ukraine's BordersTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final6%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Moldova's Power Line Cut — Energy Weaponization Spills Beyon
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Moldova's government officially declares a state of emergency, crisis situation, or equivalent legal emergency measure in the energy sector, citing damage to cross-border transmission infrastructure caused by Russian military strikes, at least once between March 26 and June 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Moldova's Power Line Cut — Energy Weaponization Spills Beyond Ukraine's Borders
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final6%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
6%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraine
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — The Governance Gap That Will DOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A legally binding international treaty or convention specifically governing AI development and/or deployment, with enforceable compliance mechanisms (not merely voluntary commitments), must be ratified and in force in at least 3 of the 5 specified jurisdictions (US, EU, UK, China, Japan) by December 31, 2028. The treaty must include specific obligations — such as mandatory safety testing, incident reporting, or compute thresholds — not merely aspirational principles. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Regulation Summit — The Governance Gap That Will Define a DecadeTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final26%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — The Governance Gap That Will D
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A legally binding international treaty or convention specifically governing AI development and/or deployment, with enforceable compliance mechanisms (not merely voluntary commitments), must be ratified and in force in at least 3 of the 5 specified jurisdictions (US, EU, UK, China, Japan) by December 31, 2028. The treaty must include specific obligations — such as mandatory safety testing, incident reporting, or compute thresholds — not merely aspirational principles. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Regulation Summit — The Governance Gap That Will Define a Decade
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final26%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
26%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/japan/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:japanentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: BlackRock's AI-Crypto Pivot — When the Biggest Player NarrowOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) total assets under management as reported by BlackRock or iShares.com exceeds $75 billion USD on or before December 31, 2026. The figure must be based on official AUM reporting, not intraday estimates. → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOBlackRock's AI-Crypto Pivot — When the Biggest Player Narrows the FieldTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: BlackRock's AI-Crypto Pivot — When the Biggest Player Narrow
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) total assets under management as reported by BlackRock or iShares.com exceeds $75 billion USD on or before December 31, 2026. The figure must be based on official AUM reporting, not intraday estimates. → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
BlackRock's AI-Crypto Pivot — When the Biggest Player Narrows the Field
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Fed Holds Rates Steady Again — Middle East Uncertainty FreezOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: The Federal Reserve reduces the federal funds target range by at least 25 basis points from its current 4.25%-4.50% level at any FOMC meeting on or before the July 28-29, 2026 scheduled meeting. Verified by the official FOMC statement on the Federal Reserve website. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisFed Holds Rates Steady Again — Middle East Uncertainty Freezes Monetary PolicyTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final21%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Fed Holds Rates Steady Again — Middle East Uncertainty Freez
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: The Federal Reserve reduces the federal funds target range by at least 25 basis points from its current 4.25%-4.50% level at any FOMC meeting on or before the July 28-29, 2026 scheduled meeting. Verified by the official FOMC statement on the Federal Reserve website. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Fed Holds Rates Steady Again — Middle East Uncertainty Freezes Monetary Policy
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final21%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
21%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO announce an increase in troop deployments to Eastern Europe in direct response to Russia's March 2026 missile test by April 9, 2026?Key Event: Russia's Missile Test Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral EOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: An official NATO communiqué, SACEUR statement, or announcement by at least two NATO member defense ministries confirming new or accelerated troop deployments, equipment transfers, or force rotations to Eastern European member states (Poland, Baltics, Romania, Bulgaria, or Slovakia) explicitly citing or temporally linked to the March 2026 Russian missile test. Routine scheduled rotations that were already planned before the test do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Missile Test Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral Enters Nuclear TerritoryTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO announce an increase in troop deployments to Eastern Europe in direct response to Russia's March 2026 missile test by April 9, 2026?
Key Event: Russia's Missile Test Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral E
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: An official NATO communiqué, SACEUR statement, or announcement by at least two NATO member defense ministries confirming new or accelerated troop deployments, equipment transfers, or force rotations to Eastern European member states (Poland, Baltics, Romania, Bulgaria, or Slovakia) explicitly citing or temporally linked to the March 2026 Russian missile test. Routine scheduled rotations that were already planned before the test do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Missile Test Near Ukraine — The Escalation Spiral Enters Nuclear Territory
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: ea9cb24f2d91 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That CouldOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal military conflict is defined as an incident in which either the US or Chinese government officially acknowledges that military force was used resulting in personnel casualties or physical damage to a naval vessel. Unconfirmed reports, propaganda claims without official acknowledgment, or diplomatic protests without confirmed use of force do not qualify. The incident must occur between March 26, 2026 and April 30, 2026, and must be directly connected to the South China Sea theater. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape Indo-Pacific OrderTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal military conflict is defined as an incident in which either the US or Chinese government officially acknowledges that military force was used resulting in personnel casualties or physical damage to a naval vessel. Unconfirmed reports, propaganda claims without official acknowledgment, or diplomatic protests without confirmed use of force do not qualify. The incident must occur between March 26, 2026 and April 30, 2026, and must be directly connected to the South China Sea theater. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral That Could Reshape Indo-Pacific Order
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO announce the deployment of additional military forces to Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltic states, or Romania) in direct response to Russia's tactical nuclear deployment in Belarus by April 9, 2026?Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nukes in Belarus — The Escalation Spiral COur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 94% confidence➡ Verdict: YES is correct if NATO or any individual NATO member officially announces the deployment, redeployment, or forward-stationing of additional military personnel, equipment, or weapons systems to Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, or Romania, citing Russia's nuclear deployment in Belarus as a reason, by April 9, 2026. Announcements of planned future deployments count if they include specific unit designations, troop numbers, or timelines. Rhetorical statements of intent without specific deployment details do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nukes in Belarus — The Escalation Spiral Crosses a Red LineTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO announce the deployment of additional military forces to Eastern Europe (Poland, Baltic states, or Romania) in direct response to Russia's tactical nuclear deployment in Belarus by April 9, 2026?
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nukes in Belarus — The Escalation Spiral C
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 94% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES is correct if NATO or any individual NATO member officially announces the deployment, redeployment, or forward-stationing of additional military personnel, equipment, or weapons systems to Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, or Romania, citing Russia's nuclear deployment in Belarus as a reason, by April 9, 2026. Announcements of planned future deployments count if they include specific unit designations, troop numbers, or timelines. Rhetorical statements of intent without specific deployment details do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nukes in Belarus — The Escalation Spiral Crosses a Red Line
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 6.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.88)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: c43e14027448 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will China conduct manned military aircraft incursions across the Taiwan Strait median line within seven days of March 25, 2026 (by April 1, 2026)?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Surge — Beijing's Escalation Ladder TestOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense official reports or credible international defense agencies that one or more PLA manned military aircraft (fighter, bomber, or reconnaissance) crossed the Taiwan Strait median line between March 26, 2026 and April 1, 2026 inclusive. Drone-only incursions do not count. The aircraft must be manned and must cross the median line as defined by Taiwan's MND. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Surge — Beijing's Escalation Ladder Tests New RungsTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will China conduct manned military aircraft incursions across the Taiwan Strait median line within seven days of March 25, 2026 (by April 1, 2026)?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Surge — Beijing's Escalation Ladder Test
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense official reports or credible international defense agencies that one or more PLA manned military aircraft (fighter, bomber, or reconnaissance) crossed the Taiwan Strait median line between March 26, 2026 and April 1, 2026 inclusive. Drone-only incursions do not count. The aircraft must be manned and must cross the median line as defined by Taiwan's MND. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Surge — Beijing's Escalation Ladder Tests New Rungs
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 6375a016f5fc (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites tOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, the Bitcoin spot price on CoinGecko (weighted average across major exchanges) must be at or above $120,000.00 USD for the answer to be YES. If the price is below $120,000.00 at that specific timestamp, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Cycle PlaybookTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final20%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites t
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: On June 30, 2026, at 23:59 UTC, the Bitcoin spot price on CoinGecko (weighted average across major exchanges) must be at or above $120,000.00 USD for the answer to be YES. If the price is below $120,000.00 at that specific timestamp, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's $120K Breakthrough — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Cycle Playbook
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final20%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
20%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's 10 Million Yen Breakthrough: Institutional InvestoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if the closing price or intraday high of BTC/JPY is 10,000,000 yen or more at any of the major cryptocurrency exchanges (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or Binance Japan) by 23:59 (Japan time) on March 31, 2026, including temporary spikes. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's 10 Million Yen Breakthrough: Institutional Investor Entry Changes CryptoArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's 10 Million Yen Breakthrough: Institutional Investo
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if the closing price or intraday high of BTC/JPY is 10,000,000 yen or more at any of the major cryptocurrency exchanges (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or Binance Japan) by 23:59 (Japan time) on March 31, 2026, including temporary spikes. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's 10 Million Yen Breakthrough: Institutional Investor Entry Changes Crypto
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: f2a31536f253 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: DHS Shutdown Deadlock — When Governing Becomes a Leverage GaOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: The DHS shutdown is considered 'ended' if a full-year appropriations bill OR a continuing resolution funding DHS is signed into law by the President by 11:59 PM ET on April 30, 2026. Executive emergency declarations that redirect funds without congressional legislation do NOT count as ending the shutdown. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisDHS Shutdown Deadlock — When Governing Becomes a Leverage GameTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final80%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: DHS Shutdown Deadlock — When Governing Becomes a Leverage Ga
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: The DHS shutdown is considered 'ended' if a full-year appropriations bill OR a continuing resolution funding DHS is signed into law by the President by 11:59 PM ET on April 30, 2026. Executive emergency declarations that redirect funds without congressional legislation do NOT count as ending the shutdown. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
DHS Shutdown Deadlock — When Governing Becomes a Leverage Game
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final80%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
80%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Bitcoin's price exceed ¥10,000,000 JPY on any major Japanese exchange (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or bitbank) at any point before 2026-06-30?Key Event: Bitcoin's ¥10M Threshold — Institutional Capital Rewrites thOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin/JPY spot price on bitFlyer, Coincheck, or bitbank must trade at or above ¥10,000,000 on at least one daily closing price before June 30, 2026. Data source: official exchange price feeds or CoinGecko JPY price. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's ¥10M Threshold — Institutional Capital Rewrites the Crypto PlaybookTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Mar 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Bitcoin's price exceed ¥10,000,000 JPY on any major Japanese exchange (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or bitbank) at any point before 2026-06-30?
Key Event: Bitcoin's ¥10M Threshold — Institutional Capital Rewrites th
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin/JPY spot price on bitFlyer, Coincheck, or bitbank must trade at or above ¥10,000,000 on at least one daily closing price before June 30, 2026. Data source: official exchange price feeds or CoinGecko JPY price. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's ¥10M Threshold — Institutional Capital Rewrites the Crypto Playbook
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Mar 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 77.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.05)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: c8821ada0168 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Transatlantic Rupture Over Iran — When Allied Criticism SignOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: The EU Foreign Affairs Council (meeting of EU member state foreign ministers) issues an official, publicly available statement or Council Conclusions that explicitly uses the phrase 'violation of international law' or 'breach of international law' in reference to U.S. military operations against Iran. Informal press statements by individual foreign ministers do not count — it must be an official Council-level document. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTransatlantic Rupture Over Iran — When Allied Criticism Signals Structural RealignmentTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final16%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Transatlantic Rupture Over Iran — When Allied Criticism Sign
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: The EU Foreign Affairs Council (meeting of EU member state foreign ministers) issues an official, publicly available statement or Council Conclusions that explicitly uses the phrase 'violation of international law' or 'breach of international law' in reference to U.S. military operations against Iran. Informal press statements by individual foreign ministers do not count — it must be an official Council-level document. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Transatlantic Rupture Over Iran — When Allied Criticism Signals Structural Realignment
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final16%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
16%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Moldova's Energy Siege — How Russia Weaponizes InfrastructurOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: Check official Moldovan government gazette or presidential decrees: if the energy-sector state of emergency declared on or around March 25, 2026 remains formally in effect (not lifted or expired) as of April 30, 2026, the answer is YES. If it has been lifted, expired, or replaced with a lower-level alert, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisMoldova's Energy Siege — How Russia Weaponizes Infrastructure Beyond BordersTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final78%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Moldova's Energy Siege — How Russia Weaponizes Infrastructur
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: Check official Moldovan government gazette or presidential decrees: if the energy-sector state of emergency declared on or around March 25, 2026 remains formally in effect (not lifted or expired) as of April 30, 2026, the answer is YES. If it has been lifted, expired, or replaced with a lower-level alert, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Moldova's Energy Siege — How Russia Weaponizes Infrastructure Beyond Borders
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final78%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
78%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia
Referenced knowledge
entity:russia
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Frontier — OpenAI's Bid to Define thOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: A major annual AI researcher survey (AI Impacts, Epoch AI, or equivalent with 200+ respondents from ML research community) published before June 30, 2027, includes a question about whether current frontier models (including GPT-6) represent 'early AGI' or 'significant progress toward AGI.' If >50% of respondents answer affirmatively, the answer is YES. If no such survey is published by the deadline, or if ≤50% answer affirmatively, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 and the Reasoning Frontier — OpenAI's Bid to Define the AGI ThresholdTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final13%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Frontier — OpenAI's Bid to Define th
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: A major annual AI researcher survey (AI Impacts, Epoch AI, or equivalent with 200+ respondents from ML research community) published before June 30, 2027, includes a question about whether current frontier models (including GPT-6) represent 'early AGI' or 'significant progress toward AGI.' If >50% of respondents answer affirmatively, the answer is YES. If no such survey is published by the deadline, or if ≤50% answer affirmatively, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 and the Reasoning Frontier — OpenAI's Bid to Define the AGI Threshold
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final13%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
13%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai
Referenced knowledge
entity:openai
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither SidOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal military engagement is defined as: (1) confirmed exchange of weapons fire between US and Chinese military forces, OR (2) a vessel collision resulting in officially acknowledged casualties on either side, OR (3) deployment of combat troops by either side in direct response to the other's military actions in the South China Sea. The event must be officially acknowledged by at least one government. Unconfirmed reports, coast guard incidents without military involvement, or incidents involving third parties (Philippines, Vietnam) without direct US-China military engagement do not qualify. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Sid
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal military engagement is defined as: (1) confirmed exchange of weapons fire between US and Chinese military forces, OR (2) a vessel collision resulting in officially acknowledged casualties on either side, OR (3) deployment of combat troops by either side in direct response to the other's military actions in the South China Sea. The event must be officially acknowledged by at least one government. Unconfirmed reports, coast guard incidents without military involvement, or incidents involving third parties (Philippines, Vietnam) without direct US-China military engagement do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO announce the deployment of additional military forces (battalion-level or above) to its Eastern European member states by 2026-04-09?Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nukes in Belarus — The Escalation Spiral NOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO or any individual NATO member state officially announces the deployment, redeployment, or forward-positioning of at least one battalion-equivalent (300+ troops) or more to any Eastern European NATO member state (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania) in direct response to the Russian tactical nuclear deployment in Belarus. The announcement must come from an official government or NATO source and must occur on or before April 9, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nukes in Belarus — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot IgnoreTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO announce the deployment of additional military forces (battalion-level or above) to its Eastern European member states by 2026-04-09?
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nukes in Belarus — The Escalation Spiral N
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO or any individual NATO member state officially announces the deployment, redeployment, or forward-positioning of at least one battalion-equivalent (300+ troops) or more to any Eastern European NATO member state (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania) in direct response to the Russian tactical nuclear deployment in Belarus. The announcement must come from an official government or NATO source and must occur on or before April 9, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nukes in Belarus — The Escalation Spiral NATO Cannot Ignore
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 5f25b11530dc (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray-Zone Escalation BefOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: Taiwan's government (Ministry of National Defense, Presidential Office, or authorized diplomatic channels) publicly announces or is confirmed by U.S. officials to have formally requested new or accelerated military support — including but not limited to arms sales packages, counter-drone systems, military advisory deployments, or intelligence-sharing arrangements — between now and April 30, 2026. Routine previously-scheduled deliveries do not count; the request must be new or represent an acceleration/expansion of existing commitments. → ❌ Missed❓ Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)YES 51%51% of prediction market capital bets on YESTaiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray-Zone Escalation Before the Ballot BoxTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌Polymarket final51%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray-Zone Escalation Bef
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: Taiwan's government (Ministry of National Defense, Presidential Office, or authorized diplomatic channels) publicly announces or is confirmed by U.S. officials to have formally requested new or accelerated military support — including but not limited to arms sales packages, counter-drone systems, military advisory deployments, or intelligence-sharing arrangements — between now and April 30, 2026. Routine previously-scheduled deliveries do not count; the request must be new or represent an acceleration/expansion of existing commitments. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)YES 51%
51% of prediction market capital bets on YES
Taiwan Drone Incursions — Beijing's Gray-Zone Escalation Before the Ballot Box
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final51%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
51%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AlphaThink — AI Surpasses Human Experts and Reshapes the InnOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: A paper published (online or in print) in Nature, Science, or Cell by December 31, 2026, that explicitly credits Google DeepMind's AlphaThink system as a primary tool used in generating a novel scientific finding (not merely a methods improvement or benchmark result). The finding must be described by the journal as a new discovery, not a replication or incremental advance. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAlphaThink — AI Surpasses Human Experts and Reshapes the Innovation StackTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final29%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AlphaThink — AI Surpasses Human Experts and Reshapes the Inn
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: A paper published (online or in print) in Nature, Science, or Cell by December 31, 2026, that explicitly credits Google DeepMind's AlphaThink system as a primary tool used in generating a novel scientific finding (not merely a methods improvement or benchmark result). The finding must be described by the journal as a new discovery, not a replication or incremental advance. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AlphaThink — AI Surpasses Human Experts and Reshapes the Innovation Stack
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final29%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
29%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Cuba Funding Block — Congress Reasserts War Powers Against IOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Any confirmed U.S. military operation involving active deployment of armed forces, naval blockade, airspace violation, or troop movement directed at Cuban territory or territorial waters (beyond the existing Guantánamo Bay base perimeter) as reported by the U.S. Department of Defense or credible international media. Routine Southern Command patrols and counter-narcotics operations that do not specifically target Cuba are excluded. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisCuba Funding Block — Congress Reasserts War Powers Against Imperial OverreachTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final25%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Cuba Funding Block — Congress Reasserts War Powers Against I
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Any confirmed U.S. military operation involving active deployment of armed forces, naval blockade, airspace violation, or troop movement directed at Cuban territory or territorial waters (beyond the existing Guantánamo Bay base perimeter) as reported by the U.S. Department of Defense or credible international media. Routine Southern Command patrols and counter-narcotics operations that do not specifically target Cuba are excluded. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Cuba Funding Block — Congress Reasserts War Powers Against Imperial Overreach
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final25%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
25%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will the United States and China hold formal bilateral diplomatic talks specifically addressing the March 2026 South China Sea naval incident by April 3, 2026?Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral NeithOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Formal diplomatic talks are defined as an officially announced meeting, phone call, or video conference between US and Chinese officials at the level of Deputy Assistant Secretary / Vice Minister or above, with the March 2026 South China Sea incident explicitly listed on the agenda or referenced in official readouts from either government. Back-channel or unofficial contacts do not qualify. Working-level military-to-military hotline exchanges do not qualify unless officially announced by both governments. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will the United States and China hold formal bilateral diplomatic talks specifically addressing the March 2026 South China Sea naval incident by April 3, 2026?
Key Event: South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neith
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Formal diplomatic talks are defined as an officially announced meeting, phone call, or video conference between US and Chinese officials at the level of Deputy Assistant Secretary / Vice Minister or above, with the March 2026 South China Sea incident explicitly listed on the agenda or referenced in official readouts from either government. Back-channel or unofficial contacts do not qualify. Working-level military-to-military hotline exchanges do not qualify unless officially announced by both governments. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Near-Collision — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: 71546f5c6c63 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO issue a formal collective statement condemning Russia's nuclear readiness exercises by 2026-03-29?Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral TesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal statement issued by NATO (either through the Secretary General, the North Atlantic Council, or an official NATO communiqué) that explicitly references Russia's nuclear exercises near Ukraine and uses language equivalent to condemnation (e.g., 'condemn,' 'denounce,' 'deplore,' 'irresponsible,' 'provocative and destabilizing'). Informal remarks by individual allied leaders do not qualify — the statement must be attributable to NATO as an institution. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red LinesTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO issue a formal collective statement condemning Russia's nuclear readiness exercises by 2026-03-29?
Key Event: Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral Tes
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal statement issued by NATO (either through the Secretary General, the North Atlantic Council, or an official NATO communiqué) that explicitly references Russia's nuclear exercises near Ukraine and uses language equivalent to condemnation (e.g., 'condemn,' 'denounce,' 'deplore,' 'irresponsible,' 'provocative and destabilizing'). Informal remarks by individual allied leaders do not qualify — the statement must be attributable to NATO as an institution. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Nuclear Drills Near Ukraine — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red Lines
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
No credible reports of this event occurring before deadline
Integrity fingerprint: bb10b96e8f9b (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests NOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if NATO or any NATO member officially announces the deployment or commitment to deploy 1,000 or more additional military personnel to NATO's eastern flank states (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Baltic states, or other Eastern European NATO members) between 2026-03-27 and 2026-04-30, as confirmed by official NATO communiques, allied government defense ministry statements, or credible wire service reporting (Reuters, AP, AFP). Resolved NO if no such announcement is made by the deadline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red LinesArticle-backedYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests N
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if NATO or any NATO member officially announces the deployment or commitment to deploy 1,000 or more additional military personnel to NATO's eastern flank states (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Baltic states, or other Eastern European NATO members) between 2026-03-27 and 2026-04-30, as confirmed by official NATO communiques, allied government defense ministry statements, or credible wire service reporting (Reuters, AP, AFP). Resolved NO if no such announcement is made by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Spiral Tests NATO's Red Lines
Article-backed
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 91.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: AlphaThink & Quantum AI: DeepMind's Bid to Own Next ComputinOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: At least three companies with market capitalization exceeding $100 billion each (e.g., Google, IBM, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Baidu) must have publicly announced and made available — either commercially or as research previews — AI-powered tools specifically designed to optimize quantum computing algorithms, by December 31, 2027. Announcements must include demonstrated capability, not mere roadmap commitments. → ❌ Missed❓ Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOAlphaThink & Quantum AI: DeepMind's Bid to Own Next Computing ParadigmTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: AlphaThink & Quantum AI: DeepMind's Bid to Own Next Computin
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: At least three companies with market capitalization exceeding $100 billion each (e.g., Google, IBM, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Baidu) must have publicly announced and made available — either commercially or as research previews — AI-powered tools specifically designed to optimize quantum computing algorithms, by December 31, 2027. Announcements must include demonstrated capability, not mere roadmap commitments. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
AlphaThink & Quantum AI: DeepMind's Bid to Own Next Computing Paradigm
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=putin/google
Referenced knowledge
entity:putinentity:google
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Ethereum's 7% Staking Yield: Reshaping Crypto Capital FlowsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: ETH/USD spot price on Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken must reach or exceed $6,000.00 at any point (intraday high counts) between now and 2026-06-30 23:59 UTC. Data source: CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical price data. If YES on any of these exchanges, the oracle resolves YES. → ❌ Missed❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOEthereum's 7% Staking Yield: Reshaping Crypto Capital FlowsTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Ethereum's 7% Staking Yield: Reshaping Crypto Capital Flows
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: ETH/USD spot price on Coinbase, Binance, or Kraken must reach or exceed $6,000.00 at any point (intraday high counts) between now and 2026-06-30 23:59 UTC. Data source: CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap historical price data. If YES on any of these exchanges, the oracle resolves YES. → ❌ Missed
❓ Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Ethereum's 7% Staking Yield: Reshaping Crypto Capital Flows
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ethereum/eu
Referenced knowledge
entity:ethereumentity:eu
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: eu has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will a direct US-China military engagement (defined as exchange of fire, ramming, or confirmed physical contact between military vessels or aircraft) occur in the Taiwan Strait by 2026-04-03?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff: Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can COur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense, or verified by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP), of an exchange of fire, deliberate ramming, or confirmed physical contact between US and Chinese military vessels or aircraft in or near the Taiwan Strait between March 27 and April 3, 2026. Verbal warnings, close passes without contact, or electronic warfare do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Standoff: Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ControlTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will a direct US-China military engagement (defined as exchange of fire, ramming, or confirmed physical contact between military vessels or aircraft) occur in the Taiwan Strait by 2026-04-03?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Standoff: Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can C
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense, or verified by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP), of an exchange of fire, deliberate ramming, or confirmed physical contact between US and Chinese military vessels or aircraft in or near the Taiwan Strait between March 27 and April 3, 2026. Verbal warnings, close passes without contact, or electronic warfare do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Standoff: Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Control
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Deadline passed without event occurring
Integrity fingerprint: ee85d2730b38 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's DeFi Crackdown: Regulation as Gateway Control in CryOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: A bill specifically addressing DeFi protocols with KYC/AML compliance requirements must be formally passed (not merely introduced or in committee) by both chambers of the Japanese Diet and receive imperial assent by December 31, 2026. Amendments to existing laws (Payment Services Act, FIEA) count if they explicitly address DeFi/decentralized finance protocols. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's DeFi Crackdown: Regulation as Gateway Control in Crypto AgeTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final10%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's DeFi Crackdown: Regulation as Gateway Control in Cry
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: A bill specifically addressing DeFi protocols with KYC/AML compliance requirements must be formally passed (not merely introduced or in committee) by both chambers of the Japanese Diet and receive imperial assent by December 31, 2026. Amendments to existing laws (Payment Services Act, FIEA) count if they explicitly address DeFi/decentralized finance protocols. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's DeFi Crackdown: Regulation as Gateway Control in Crypto Age
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final10%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
10%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: North Korea's Missile Resumption: Japan's Defense PivotOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: Japanese government (Prime Minister, Minister of Defense, or National Security Secretariat) makes an official public announcement or policy document release describing new or accelerated missile defense and/or counterstrike measures explicitly referencing the 2026 North Korean missile launches. This includes supplementary budget allocations, new procurement decisions, accelerated deployment timelines, or new doctrinal guidance. Routine restatements of existing 2022 strategy commitments without new measures do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisNorth Korea's Missile Resumption: Japan's Defense PivotTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final12%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: North Korea's Missile Resumption: Japan's Defense Pivot
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: Japanese government (Prime Minister, Minister of Defense, or National Security Secretariat) makes an official public announcement or policy document release describing new or accelerated missile defense and/or counterstrike measures explicitly referencing the 2026 North Korean missile launches. This includes supplementary budget allocations, new procurement decisions, accelerated deployment timelines, or new doctrinal guidance. Routine restatements of existing 2022 strategy commitments without new measures do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
North Korea's Missile Resumption: Japan's Defense Pivot
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final12%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
12%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/north-korea
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:north-korea
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran War Oversight Gap: Congress Sidelined as Executive PoweOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Any bill signed into law or veto-overridden that specifically names Iran and either authorizes or limits U.S. military operations against Iran. Must be binding legislation, not a non-binding resolution. Must be signed into law or enacted over veto by September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran War Oversight Gap: Congress Sidelined as Executive Power ExpandsTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran War Oversight Gap: Congress Sidelined as Executive Powe
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Any bill signed into law or veto-overridden that specifically names Iran and either authorizes or limits U.S. military operations against Iran. Must be binding legislation, not a non-binding resolution. Must be signed into law or enacted over veto by September 30, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran War Oversight Gap: Congress Sidelined as Executive Power Expands
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Chinese Robot Ban: Washington's Tech Decoupling Reaches PhysOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: The American Security Robotics Act or legislation with substantially identical provisions (banning federal government procurement or use of Chinese-manufactured unmanned ground vehicle systems) is signed into law as standalone legislation or as a provision within the National Defense Authorization Act or other enacted legislation by December 31, 2026. Partial measures such as executive orders or agency-level directives do not count; it must be enacted legislation. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Albania qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NOChinese Robot Ban: Washington's Tech Decoupling Reaches Physical WorldTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Chinese Robot Ban: Washington's Tech Decoupling Reaches Phys
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: The American Security Robotics Act or legislation with substantially identical provisions (banning federal government procurement or use of Chinese-manufactured unmanned ground vehicle systems) is signed into law as standalone legislation or as a provision within the National Defense Authorization Act or other enacted legislation by December 31, 2026. Partial measures such as executive orders or agency-level directives do not count; it must be enacted legislation. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Albania qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Chinese Robot Ban: Washington's Tech Decoupling Reaches Physical World
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/fed / dynamics=us-china-trade-war
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:feddynamic:us-china-trade-warpattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Standoff: Escalation Spiral Neither Side CanOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A verified incident involving physical contact (collision, ramming) or weapons discharge (warning shots, missile launch, weapons lock resulting in defensive fire) between uniformed US military personnel/assets and Chinese PLA or PLA Navy personnel/assets in the South China Sea, confirmed by official statements from either government or credible international reporting. Coast guard incidents involving the Philippines do not qualify unless US military forces are directly involved. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Standoff: Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can ExitTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Standoff: Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A verified incident involving physical contact (collision, ramming) or weapons discharge (warning shots, missile launch, weapons lock resulting in defensive fire) between uniformed US military personnel/assets and Chinese PLA or PLA Navy personnel/assets in the South China Sea, confirmed by official statements from either government or credible international reporting. Coast guard incidents involving the Philippines do not qualify unless US military forces are directly involved. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Standoff: Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Exit
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bitcoin's ¥15M Surge — Institutional Investment Creates a 'WOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 62% confidence➡ Verdict: As of 11:59 PM (Japan Time) on March 31, 2026, the closing price (or final transaction price) of Bitcoin on one of the major Japanese cryptocurrency exchanges (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or bitbank) is 15,000,000 yen or more per 1 BTC. This will be determined based on the closing price on March 31, not whether it temporarily exceeds 15 million yen during the day. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's ¥15M Surge — Institutional Investment Creates a 'Winner-Take-All' ShiftTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bitcoin's ¥15M Surge — Institutional Investment Creates a 'W
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: As of 11:59 PM (Japan Time) on March 31, 2026, the closing price (or final transaction price) of Bitcoin on one of the major Japanese cryptocurrency exchanges (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or bitbank) is 15,000,000 yen or more per 1 BTC. This will be determined based on the closing price on March 31, not whether it temporarily exceeds 15 million yen during the day. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's ¥15M Surge — Institutional Investment Creates a 'Winner-Take-All' Shift
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 38.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.38)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: 382742119d96 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Bitcoin exceed ¥15,000,000 per BTC on any major Japanese exchange (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or GMO Coin) at any point before 2026-03-31?Key Event: Bitcoin's ¥15M Breach — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the CrypOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 77% confidence➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/JPY) spot price must reach or exceed ¥15,000,000 on at least one of the three major Japanese exchanges (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or GMO Coin) at any point during the period up to and including March 31, 2026. Intraday price is sufficient; a daily closing price is not required. The price must be for actual BTC/JPY spot trading, not a derivatives or futures price. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBitcoin's ¥15M Breach — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Crypto Power MapArticle-backedNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Bitcoin exceed ¥15,000,000 per BTC on any major Japanese exchange (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or GMO Coin) at any point before 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Bitcoin's ¥15M Breach — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Cryp
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 77% confidence
➡ Verdict: Bitcoin (BTC/JPY) spot price must reach or exceed ¥15,000,000 on at least one of the three major Japanese exchanges (bitFlyer, Coincheck, or GMO Coin) at any point during the period up to and including March 31, 2026. Intraday price is sufficient; a daily closing price is not required. The price must be for actual BTC/JPY spot trading, not a derivatives or futures price. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bitcoin's ¥15M Breach — Institutional FOMO Rewrites the Crypto Power Map
Article-backed
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 23.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.59)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan/bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:japanentity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Verified via Gemini web search 2026-04-09
Integrity fingerprint: 24b06e5dc185 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drills — China's Escalation Tests the ConflictOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official announcement by the Chinese government, PLA, or state media (Xinhua, CCTV, People's Daily) declaring a formal blockade, quarantine, or exclusion zone around Taiwan that restricts commercial or military traffic. Unannounced interference with individual vessels or continued military exercises without a formal blockade declaration does not count as YES. → ❌ Missed❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%7% of prediction market capital bets on NOTaiwan Strait Drills — China's Escalation Tests the Conflict ThresholdTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drills — China's Escalation Tests the Conflict
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolution requires an official announcement by the Chinese government, PLA, or state media (Xinhua, CCTV, People's Daily) declaring a formal blockade, quarantine, or exclusion zone around Taiwan that restricts commercial or military traffic. Unannounced interference with individual vessels or continued military exercises without a formal blockade declaration does not count as YES. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 7%
7% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Taiwan Strait Drills — China's Escalation Tests the Conflict Threshold
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Naval Standoff — Escalation Meets SanctionsOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic crisis is defined as any ONE of the following occurring by April 28, 2026: (1) either country recalls its ambassador from the other's capital, (2) either country announces the formal suspension of all scheduled bilateral diplomatic talks or summits, or (3) either country formally downgrades diplomatic relations. Routine protests, summoning of ambassadors for demarches, or suspension of only military-to-military channels do NOT qualify. The outcome must be reported by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, or Xinhua). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSouth China Sea Naval Standoff — Escalation Meets SanctionsTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final96%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Naval Standoff — Escalation Meets Sanctions
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal diplomatic crisis is defined as any ONE of the following occurring by April 28, 2026: (1) either country recalls its ambassador from the other's capital, (2) either country announces the formal suspension of all scheduled bilateral diplomatic talks or summits, or (3) either country formally downgrades diplomatic relations. Routine protests, summoning of ambassadors for demarches, or suspension of only military-to-military channels do NOT qualify. The outcome must be reported by at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, or Xinhua). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
South China Sea Naval Standoff — Escalation Meets Sanctions
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final96%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
96%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 6.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 96.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.88) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinadynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Russia's Hypersonic Gambit — Escalation and NATO's DeterrencOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence⚡ Contrarian➡ Verdict: Judged YES if NATO, or at least two NATO member states, officially announce new military deployments (troops, missile defense assets, or weapons systems) to Eastern European member states (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Baltic states, or Finland) between March 28 and June 30, 2026, with official statements or communiqués explicitly referencing Russia's hypersonic missile test as a contributing factor or justification. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%0% of prediction market capital bets on NORussia's Hypersonic Gambit — Escalation and NATO's DeterrenceTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final0%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Russia's Hypersonic Gambit — Escalation and NATO's Deterrenc
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence⚡ Contrarian
➡ Verdict: Judged YES if NATO, or at least two NATO member states, officially announce new military deployments (troops, missile defense assets, or weapons systems) to Eastern European member states (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Baltic states, or Finland) between March 28 and June 30, 2026, with official statements or communiqués explicitly referencing Russia's hypersonic missile test as a contributing factor or justification. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Russia invade a NATO country in 2025?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 0%
0% of prediction market capital bets on NO
Russia's Hypersonic Gambit — Escalation and NATO's Deterrence
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final0%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
0%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 100.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato/eu / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natoentity:eudynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — The Pendulum Swings Toward ConOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 87% confidence➡ Verdict: At least two of the five named companies (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta AI, Microsoft AI) must issue a public statement — via blog post, press release, SEC filing, or official spokesperson — explicitly attributing a product launch delay to compliance with the 2026 Global AI Regulation Summit guidelines or IASB requirements. The delay must apply to a product that had a previously announced or widely reported launch target. General statements about 'slowing down for safety' without specific reference to the 2026 regulatory framework do not count. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGlobal AI Regulation Summit — The Pendulum Swings Toward ControlTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Global AI Regulation Summit — The Pendulum Swings Toward Con
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 87% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least two of the five named companies (OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Meta AI, Microsoft AI) must issue a public statement — via blog post, press release, SEC filing, or official spokesperson — explicitly attributing a product launch delay to compliance with the 2026 Global AI Regulation Summit guidelines or IASB requirements. The delay must apply to a product that had a previously announced or widely reported launch target. General statements about 'slowing down for safety' without specific reference to the 2026 regulatory framework do not count. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Global AI Regulation Summit — The Pendulum Swings Toward Control
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 13.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.76) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=openai/google
Referenced knowledge
entity:openaientity:google
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: South China Sea Naval Standoff — Escalation With No ExitOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense officially confirms that US and Chinese naval vessels exchanged weapons fire, deliberately rammed each other causing casualties, or locked weapons-targeting radar on each other's vessels in the South China Sea between 2026-03-28 and 2026-04-28. Resolved NO if no such confirmation is issued by either government by the deadline. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NOSouth China Sea Naval Standoff — Escalation With No ExitArticle-backed悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: South China Sea Naval Standoff — Escalation With No Exit
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if either the US Department of Defense or China's Ministry of National Defense officially confirms that US and Chinese naval vessels exchanged weapons fire, deliberately rammed each other causing casualties, or locked weapons-targeting radar on each other's vessels in the South China Sea between 2026-03-28 and 2026-04-28. Resolved NO if no such confirmation is issued by either government by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
South China Sea Naval Standoff — Escalation With No Exit
Article-backed
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: DeepMind's AGI Prototype — Redrawing the AI Arms RaceOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: An independent, non-Google-affiliated AI evaluation organization or peer-reviewed academic publication explicitly states that DeepMind's 2026 prototype meets a recognized definition of AGI (e.g., the ability to perform any intellectual task a human can, at or above human level, across diverse domains without task-specific training). Self-assessments by DeepMind or Google do not count. The classification must be published in a formal report or peer-reviewed venue by the deadline. → ❌ Missed❓ Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%1% of prediction market capital bets on NODeepMind's AGI Prototype — Redrawing the AI Arms RaceTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌Polymarket final1%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: DeepMind's AGI Prototype — Redrawing the AI Arms Race
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: An independent, non-Google-affiliated AI evaluation organization or peer-reviewed academic publication explicitly states that DeepMind's 2026 prototype meets a recognized definition of AGI (e.g., the ability to perform any intellectual task a human can, at or above human level, across diverse domains without task-specific training). Self-assessments by DeepMind or Google do not count. The classification must be published in a formal report or peer-reviewed venue by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
❓ Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
🏛 市場 Consensus (at pub)NO 1%
1% of prediction market capital bets on NO
DeepMind's AGI Prototype — Redrawing the AI Arms Race
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
Polymarket final1%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (Polymarket, pre-resolution)
1%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Market Brier Index: 99.0%
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00) / market raw 0.00
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=google
Referenced knowledge
entity:google
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO announce a formal collective response (including specific military, economic, or nuclear posture measures) to Russia's tactical nuclear deployment by 2026-04-11?Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Tests NATO's ROur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: NATO must issue an official statement or communiqué from the North Atlantic Council that (1) explicitly references Russia's tactical nuclear deployment near Ukraine, and (2) announces at least one concrete responsive measure (force posture change, sanctions, arms delivery acceleration, or nuclear consultation invocation under Article 4 or Article 5). General expressions of concern without specific action items do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisRussia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Tests NATO's Red LinesTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO announce a formal collective response (including specific military, economic, or nuclear posture measures) to Russia's tactical nuclear deployment by 2026-04-11?
Key Event: Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Tests NATO's R
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: NATO must issue an official statement or communiqué from the North Atlantic Council that (1) explicitly references Russia's tactical nuclear deployment near Ukraine, and (2) announces at least one concrete responsive measure (force posture change, sanctions, arms delivery acceleration, or nuclear consultation invocation under Article 4 or Article 5). General expressions of concern without specific action items do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Russia's Tactical Nuclear Gambit — Escalation Tests NATO's Red Lines
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 5.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.90)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Anthropic v. Pentagon — AI Policy as Political WeaponryOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 87% confidence➡ Verdict: As of December 31, 2026, the FASC supply chain risk designation against Anthropic is either (a) still subject to a court injunction preventing its enforcement, (b) has been formally withdrawn by the government, or (c) has been permanently struck down by a court. If the designation has been reinstated and is being enforced without any court block, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAnthropic v. Pentagon — AI Policy as Political WeaponryTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final7%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Anthropic v. Pentagon — AI Policy as Political Weaponry
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 87% confidence
➡ Verdict: As of December 31, 2026, the FASC supply chain risk designation against Anthropic is either (a) still subject to a court injunction preventing its enforcement, (b) has been formally withdrawn by the government, or (c) has been permanently struck down by a court. If the designation has been reinstated and is being enforced without any court block, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Anthropic v. Pentagon — AI Policy as Political Weaponry
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final7%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
7%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hormuz Brinkmanship — Trump's Diplomacy Meets EnergyOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 9% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed US military strikes specifically targeting Iranian energy infrastructure (refineries, oil terminals, pipelines, or energy-related facilities within Iranian territory) reported by at least two major wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP) before April 30, 2026. Strikes on non-energy military targets, cyber operations, or proxy/allied strikes do not count. The question resolves YES only if US forces directly strike Iranian energy sites. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHormuz Brinkmanship — Trump's Diplomacy Meets EnergyTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hormuz Brinkmanship — Trump's Diplomacy Meets Energy
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 9% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed US military strikes specifically targeting Iranian energy infrastructure (refineries, oil terminals, pipelines, or energy-related facilities within Iranian territory) reported by at least two major wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP) before April 30, 2026. Strikes on non-energy military targets, cyber operations, or proxy/allied strikes do not count. The question resolves YES only if US forces directly strike Iranian energy sites. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hormuz Brinkmanship — Trump's Diplomacy Meets Energy
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 91.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Japan's Budget Standoff — Coalition Fragility Meets Fiscal DOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 82% confidence➡ Verdict: The FY2026 general account budget bill is formally enacted through passage by both the House of Representatives and House of Councillors, or through automatic enactment via the 30-day rule, by April 15, 2026. A provisional budget alone does not count as enactment of the full budget. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisJapan's Budget Standoff — Coalition Fragility Meets Fiscal DeadlineTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Japan's Budget Standoff — Coalition Fragility Meets Fiscal D
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 82% confidence
➡ Verdict: The FY2026 general account budget bill is formally enacted through passage by both the House of Representatives and House of Councillors, or through automatic enactment via the 30-day rule, by April 15, 2026. A provisional budget alone does not count as enactment of the full budget. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Japan's Budget Standoff — Coalition Fragility Meets Fiscal Deadline
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 82.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.03)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Fed Holds Rates Twice Running — Middle East Freezes PolicyOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 18% confidence➡ Verdict: The Federal Reserve announces a reduction of the federal funds target range by at least 25 basis points at any scheduled or emergency FOMC meeting between March 19, 2026 and July 31, 2026. Verified by the official FOMC statement published on federalreserve.gov. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisFed Holds Rates Twice Running — Middle East Freezes PolicyTracker-only悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final21%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Fed Holds Rates Twice Running — Middle East Freezes Policy
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 18% confidence
➡ Verdict: The Federal Reserve announces a reduction of the federal funds target range by at least 25 basis points at any scheduled or emergency FOMC meeting between March 19, 2026 and July 31, 2026. Verified by the official FOMC statement published on federalreserve.gov. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Fed Holds Rates Twice Running — Middle East Freezes Policy
Tracker-only
悲観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final21%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
21%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 悲観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran's Hidden Enrichment Site — Escalation Reshapes the MiddOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A verified military strike by Israel (acknowledged by Israel, confirmed by US/Western intelligence, or independently verified by credible media) targeting any Iranian nuclear facility — including the newly disclosed site or existing sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, or Arak — occurring on or before April 30, 2026. Cyber attacks, sabotage operations, or assassinations do not count; the strike must involve kinetic military action (airstrikes, missile strikes, or commando operations against nuclear infrastructure). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran's Hidden Enrichment Site — Escalation Reshapes the Middle EastArticle-backed楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final72%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran's Hidden Enrichment Site — Escalation Reshapes the Midd
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A verified military strike by Israel (acknowledged by Israel, confirmed by US/Western intelligence, or independently verified by credible media) targeting any Iranian nuclear facility — including the newly disclosed site or existing sites at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, or Arak — occurring on or before April 30, 2026. Cyber attacks, sabotage operations, or assassinations do not count; the strike must involve kinetic military action (airstrikes, missile strikes, or commando operations against nuclear infrastructure). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran's Hidden Enrichment Site — Escalation Reshapes the Middle East
Article-backed
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final72%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
72%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Ukraine conduct a publicly attributed or officially acknowledged counter-cyberattack targeting Russian infrastructure by April 11, 2026?Key Event: Kyiv Grid Strike — Cyber Warfare Enters Critical InfrastructOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 11% confidence➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by April 11, 2026, either (a) Ukrainian government or military officials publicly confirm conducting a cyberattack against Russian infrastructure systems, or (b) credible cybersecurity firms or Western intelligence agencies publicly attribute a cyberattack on Russian infrastructure to Ukrainian state actors with Ukrainian official acknowledgment. Resolved NO if no such confirmation or credible attribution with acknowledgment occurs by the deadline. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisKyiv Grid Strike — Cyber Warfare Enters Critical Infrastructure EraTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Ukraine conduct a publicly attributed or officially acknowledged counter-cyberattack targeting Russian infrastructure by April 11, 2026?
Key Event: Kyiv Grid Strike — Cyber Warfare Enters Critical Infrastruct
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 11% confidence
➡ Verdict: Resolved YES if, by April 11, 2026, either (a) Ukrainian government or military officials publicly confirm conducting a cyberattack against Russian infrastructure systems, or (b) credible cybersecurity firms or Western intelligence agencies publicly attribute a cyberattack on Russian infrastructure to Ukrainian state actors with Ukrainian official acknowledgment. Resolved NO if no such confirmation or credible attribution with acknowledgment occurs by the deadline. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Kyiv Grid Strike — Cyber Warfare Enters Critical Infrastructure Era
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 89.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=russia/ukraine
Referenced knowledge
entity:russiaentity:ukraine
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: russia has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Stablecoin Law — Regulation Fuels Crypto's Next BoomOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 31% confidence➡ Verdict: Total stablecoin market capitalization as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap on December 31, 2026, must exceed $255 billion USD (representing approximately 50% growth from the ~$170 billion baseline at the time of bill passage). Measurement taken from the 'Stablecoins' category page on either aggregator at 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Stablecoin Law — Regulation Fuels Crypto's Next BoomTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Stablecoin Law — Regulation Fuels Crypto's Next Boom
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 31% confidence
➡ Verdict: Total stablecoin market capitalization as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap on December 31, 2026, must exceed $255 billion USD (representing approximately 50% growth from the ~$170 billion baseline at the time of bill passage). Measurement taken from the 'Stablecoins' category page on either aggregator at 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Stablecoin Law — Regulation Fuels Crypto's Next Boom
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran's Shadow Enrichment Site — Escalation Reshapes the MiddOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, or equivalent) of an Israeli military operation — including air strikes, missile strikes, or destructive cyber-kinetic attacks — targeting any Iranian nuclear facility, including but not limited to the newly disclosed site, Natanz, or Fordow, occurring on or before April 29, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran's Shadow Enrichment Site — Escalation Reshapes the Middle EastTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final72%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran's Shadow Enrichment Site — Escalation Reshapes the Midd
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC, or equivalent) of an Israeli military operation — including air strikes, missile strikes, or destructive cyber-kinetic attacks — targeting any Iranian nuclear facility, including but not limited to the newly disclosed site, Natanz, or Fordow, occurring on or before April 29, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran's Shadow Enrichment Site — Escalation Reshapes the Middle East
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final72%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
72%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: US Crypto Regulation Bill — State Captures DeFi's FrontierOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: Measure the total cryptocurrency market capitalization (as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap) on the trading day immediately before the bill's passage. If at any point between the bill's passage and December 31, 2026, the total market cap closes below 50% of that baseline figure, the answer is YES. If it never drops below 50%, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisUS Crypto Regulation Bill — State Captures DeFi's FrontierTracker-only基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final35%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: US Crypto Regulation Bill — State Captures DeFi's Frontier
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: Measure the total cryptocurrency market capitalization (as reported by CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap) on the trading day immediately before the bill's passage. If at any point between the bill's passage and December 31, 2026, the total market cap closes below 50% of that baseline figure, the answer is YES. If it never drops below 50%, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
US Crypto Regulation Bill — State Captures DeFi's Frontier
Tracker-only
基本シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final35%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
35%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 基本シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Iran's Shadow Enrichment Site — The Escalation Spiral NobodyOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC) or official Israeli/Iranian government statements acknowledging an Israeli military strike — kinetic or cyber-physical — targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure, including the newly disclosed facility or any existing enrichment site (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, or the new facility), occurring between 2026-03-29 and 2026-04-30. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran's Shadow Enrichment Site — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can ExitTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌manifold final38%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Iran's Shadow Enrichment Site — The Escalation Spiral Nobody
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two major international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP, BBC) or official Israeli/Iranian government statements acknowledging an Israeli military strike — kinetic or cyber-physical — targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure, including the newly disclosed facility or any existing enrichment site (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, or the new facility), occurring between 2026-03-29 and 2026-04-30. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran's Shadow Enrichment Site — The Escalation Spiral Nobody Can Exit
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
manifold final38%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
38%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel/xi-jinping / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israelentity:xi-jinpingdynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Houthi Entry Into Iran-Israel War — The Proxy Spiral Goes ReOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 95% confidence➡ Verdict: Verified reports from at least two credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Guardian, NYT, or equivalent) confirming 10 or more distinct Houthi-claimed or Houthi-attributed missile or drone attacks targeting Israeli territory (including interceptions) between March 28 and June 30, 2026. Each attack must be a separate incident, not multiple projectiles in a single salvo. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHouthi Entry Into Iran-Israel War — The Proxy Spiral Goes RegionalTracker-only楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌manifold final76%📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Houthi Entry Into Iran-Israel War — The Proxy Spiral Goes Re
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 95% confidence
➡ Verdict: Verified reports from at least two credible international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, Guardian, NYT, or equivalent) confirming 10 or more distinct Houthi-claimed or Houthi-attributed missile or drone attacks targeting Israeli territory (including interceptions) between March 28 and June 30, 2026. Each attack must be a separate incident, not multiple projectiles in a single salvo. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Houthi Entry Into Iran-Israel War — The Proxy Spiral Goes Regional
Tracker-only
楽観シナリオ (Missed)→❌
manifold final76%
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
Market (manifold, pre-resolution)
76%
→ Resolved: NO
Result
❌ 楽観シナリオ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israel
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI Crosses the Expert TOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 15% confidence➡ Verdict: At least three distinct Fortune 100 companies must have issued public statements (press releases, earnings calls, SEC filings, or official blog posts) confirming production-level (not pilot or experimental) deployment of GPT-6 or equivalent frontier reasoning models in healthcare diagnostics, financial risk assessment/trading, or legal analysis workflows by June 30, 2027. Pilot programs, internal testing, or vague AI strategy announcements do not qualify. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI Crosses the Expert ThresholdTracker-only判定不可（データ不足） (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI Crosses the Expert T
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 15% confidence
➡ Verdict: At least three distinct Fortune 100 companies must have issued public statements (press releases, earnings calls, SEC filings, or official blog posts) confirming production-level (not pilot or experimental) deployment of GPT-6 or equivalent frontier reasoning models in healthcare diagnostics, financial risk assessment/trading, or legal analysis workflows by June 30, 2027. Pilot programs, internal testing, or vague AI strategy announcements do not qualify. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 and the Reasoning Revolution — AI Crosses the Expert Threshold
Tracker-only
判定不可（データ不足） (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可（データ不足） (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will NATO formally approve an emergency air defense aid package specifically for Ukraine (including at least one additional Patriot battery commitment) by 2026-04-01?Key Event: Kyiv Drone Swarms — NATO's Air Defense Dilemma Deepens the EOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal NATO communiqué, official allied joint statement, or verified government announcement confirming the commitment to transfer at least one additional Patriot battery system to Ukraine, issued on or before April 1, 2026. Bilateral pledges from individual nations count only if announced in the context of a coordinated NATO or coalition framework. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisKyiv Drone Swarms — NATO's Air Defense Dilemma Deepens the Escalation SpiralTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will NATO formally approve an emergency air defense aid package specifically for Ukraine (including at least one additional Patriot battery commitment) by 2026-04-01?
Key Event: Kyiv Drone Swarms — NATO's Air Defense Dilemma Deepens the E
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal NATO communiqué, official allied joint statement, or verified government announcement confirming the commitment to transfer at least one additional Patriot battery system to Ukraine, issued on or before April 1, 2026. Bilateral pledges from individual nations count only if announced in the context of a coordinated NATO or coalition framework. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Kyiv Drone Swarms — NATO's Air Defense Dilemma Deepens the Escalation Spiral
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 94.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=ukraine/nato / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:ukraineentity:natodynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: ukraine has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
!👁 Watch: nato has a high miss rate. Watch for overconfident calls
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Event did not occur by deadline
Integrity fingerprint: fe0e699f2f8c (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will a formal US-China military standoff (defined as sustained mutual force deployments or naval confrontation posture) occur in the Taiwan Strait by April 5, 2026?Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral NeitheOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 5% confidence➡ Verdict: A formal military standoff is defined as: (1) both the US and China deploying additional military assets to the Taiwan Strait beyond routine rotation AND (2) either side publicly declaring a heightened readiness posture or exclusion zone, OR (3) credible reporting from at least two major wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP) describing the situation as a military standoff. If none of these criteria are met by April 5, 2026, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisTaiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford to StopTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will a formal US-China military standoff (defined as sustained mutual force deployments or naval confrontation posture) occur in the Taiwan Strait by April 5, 2026?
Key Event: Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neithe
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 5% confidence
➡ Verdict: A formal military standoff is defined as: (1) both the US and China deploying additional military assets to the Taiwan Strait beyond routine rotation AND (2) either side publicly declaring a heightened readiness posture or exclusion zone, OR (3) credible reporting from at least two major wire services (AP, Reuters, AFP) describing the situation as a military standoff. If none of these criteria are met by April 5, 2026, the answer is NO. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Taiwan Strait Drone Intercept — The Escalation Spiral Neither Side Can Afford to Stop
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 95.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.00)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=china/taiwan / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:chinaentity:taiwandynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: taiwan has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Event did not occur by deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 23cc6c476cb5 (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 控えめ予測: 0%だったが的中。もっと高くても良かった
2. 偶発的中: 正しい理由で当たったか、偶然か要検証
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will AlphaThink's results be independently verified and published in a peer-reviewed journal (Nature, Science, or Physical Review Letters) by 2027-03-31?Key Event: AlphaThink — AI-Quantum Convergence Reshapes the Computing FOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: A peer-reviewed paper authored by or co-authored by Google DeepMind researchers describing AlphaThink's quantum problem-solving capabilities is published in Nature, Science, or Physical Review Letters by March 31, 2027. The paper must describe specific quantum computing problems solved and include reproducible methodological details. Pre-prints on arXiv alone do not count — the paper must be accepted and published by the journal. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAlphaThink — AI-Quantum Convergence Reshapes the Computing FrontierTracker-only判定不可（データ不足） (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will AlphaThink's results be independently verified and published in a peer-reviewed journal (Nature, Science, or Physical Review Letters) by 2027-03-31?
Key Event: AlphaThink — AI-Quantum Convergence Reshapes the Computing F
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: A peer-reviewed paper authored by or co-authored by Google DeepMind researchers describing AlphaThink's quantum problem-solving capabilities is published in Nature, Science, or Physical Review Letters by March 31, 2027. The paper must describe specific quantum computing problems solved and include reproducible methodological details. Pre-prints on arXiv alone do not count — the paper must be accepted and published by the journal. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
AlphaThink — AI-Quantum Convergence Reshapes the Computing Frontier
Tracker-only
判定不可（データ不足） (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可（データ不足） (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=putin
Referenced knowledge
entity:putin
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will Iran conduct a direct military strike (missiles or drones) against Israeli territory by 2026-03-31?Key Event: Iran-Israel Natanz Strike — The Escalation Spiral That CouldOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 91% confidence➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) or official Israeli/Iranian government statements acknowledging Iranian missile or drone strikes impacting Israeli sovereign territory (not proxy attacks, not cyber operations) by 23:59 UTC on March 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisIran-Israel Natanz Strike — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Middle EastTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will Iran conduct a direct military strike (missiles or drones) against Israeli territory by 2026-03-31?
Key Event: Iran-Israel Natanz Strike — The Escalation Spiral That Could
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 91% confidence
➡ Verdict: Confirmed reports from at least two credible international news agencies (Reuters, AP, AFP) or official Israeli/Iranian government statements acknowledging Iranian missile or drone strikes impacting Israeli sovereign territory (not proxy attacks, not cyber operations) by 23:59 UTC on March 31, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Iran-Israel Natanz Strike — The Escalation Spiral That Could Redraw the Middle East
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 9.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.83)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/israel / dynamics=escalation-overconfidence
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:israeldynamic:escalation-overconfidencepattern:FP-001
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: Check whether this is drifting into failure pattern FP-001
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
Event did not occur by deadline
Integrity fingerprint: 530a80f4b07c (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 情報不足: 予測時点で把握していなかった要因の可能性
2. 力学変化: 予測後に状況が変化した可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: Will at least one G7 country enact new binding national legislation specifically addressing frontier AI systems with human-level reasoning capabilities by 2026-09-30?Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Barrier — AI's Cognitive Leap ForcesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 6% confidence➡ Verdict: YES if by September 30, 2026, at least one G7 nation (U.S., UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan) has enacted into law (not merely proposed, introduced, or passed through one chamber) new legislation that explicitly creates binding requirements for frontier AI models demonstrating human-level reasoning capabilities, beyond what was already law prior to GPT-6's launch. The EU AI Act does not count as it was enacted before GPT-6. NO if no such legislation has been enacted by that date. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisGPT-6 and the Reasoning Barrier — AI's Cognitive Leap Forces a Global Safety ReckoningTracker-only判定不可（データ不足） (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: Will at least one G7 country enact new binding national legislation specifically addressing frontier AI systems with human-level reasoning capabilities by 2026-09-30?
Key Event: GPT-6 and the Reasoning Barrier — AI's Cognitive Leap Forces
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 6% confidence
➡ Verdict: YES if by September 30, 2026, at least one G7 nation (U.S., UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan) has enacted into law (not merely proposed, introduced, or passed through one chamber) new legislation that explicitly creates binding requirements for frontier AI models demonstrating human-level reasoning capabilities, beyond what was already law prior to GPT-6's launch. The EU AI Act does not count as it was enacted before GPT-6. NO if no such legislation has been enacted by that date. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
GPT-6 and the Reasoning Barrier — AI's Cognitive Leap Forces a Global Safety Reckoning
Tracker-only
判定不可（データ不足） (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ 判定不可（データ不足） (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
✅ Accurate⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1146Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 60% confidence➡ Verdict: Strategy Inc. officially discloses additional BTC purchase via SEC filing or public announcement by April 14, 2026 → ✅ Accurate📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1146Tracker-onlyYES Accurate→✅📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
✅ Accurate
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1146
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 60% confidence
➡ Verdict: Strategy Inc. officially discloses additional BTC purchase via SEC filing or public announcement by April 14, 2026 → ✅ Accurate
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1146
Tracker-only
YES Accurate→✅
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
✅ YES Accurate
Nowpattern Brier Index: 60.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.16)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: a538513e2d02 (medium)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. セイラー氏のSNS投稿が今回に限り購入予告ではなく、単なるコミュニティ向けの強気メッセージに留まる可能性。過去パターンの継続を前提としすぎている。
2. 市場環境や規制動向（SEC調査など）により、購入のタイミングが数日〜数週間遅延する構造的リスク。資金調達の遅れや社内コンプライアンス判断が介在しうる。
3. パターン認識バイアス：過去数回の「投稿→翌日開示」パターンを過度に一般化し、今回も同様と決めつけている可能性。サンプル数は限定的。
✅ Accurate⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1167Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 60% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if BTC price does not decline 5% or more from April 13 open to April 19 close in 2026 → ✅ Accurate📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1167Tracker-onlyNO Accurate→✅📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
✅ Accurate
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1167
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 60% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if BTC price does not decline 5% or more from April 13 open to April 19 close in 2026 → ✅ Accurate
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1167
Tracker-only
NO Accurate→✅
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
✅ NO Accurate
Nowpattern Brier Index: 40.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.36)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin/fed
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoinentity:fed
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
Watch signals
!👁 Watch: fed has elevated Brier. Avoid overstating confidence
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: bb1150c7897f (low)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 予想外の地政学リスク（戦争拡大・制裁強化等）が発生し、リスクオフが仮想通貨市場にも波及して大幅下落する場合
2. 複数の大規模アンロックが同日に集中し、流動性の薄い時間帯で連鎖的な清算（カスケードリクイデーション）が発生する構造的リスク
3. 過去のアンロックイベントで下落が限定的だった経験に基づく正常性バイアスが、今回の規模やタイミングの特殊性を過小評価している可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1195Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 40% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Liverpool overcome the two-goal deficit against PSG in the second leg and advance to the Champions League semi-finals by April 16, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1195Tracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1195
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 40% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Liverpool overcome the two-goal deficit against PSG in the second leg and advance to the Champions League semi-finals by April 16, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1195
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 60.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.16)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. アンフィールドの雰囲気がPSGに想定以上のプレッシャーを与え、前半で2点を奪取してPSGが崩壊するシナリオ（歴史的に約20-25%の確率で起きる）
2. PSGの主力選手の負傷や出場停止が重なり、本来の実力を発揮できない構造的リスク（試合直前の情報が不足している）
3. 「強豪クラブはアウェイで手堅く守る」という自分のバイアスが、今季のPSGのアウェイでの実際の脆さを過小評価している可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1225Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 30% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if the FA upholds Martinez's red card and dismisses Manchester United's appeal by end of April 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1225Tracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1225
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 30% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if the FA upholds Martinez's red card and dismisses Manchester United's appeal by end of April 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1225
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 30.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.49)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 映像の再検証でVAR判定に明確な誤りが認められ、FAが異例の撤回を行う可能性
2. プレミアリーグ全体の審判改革圧力が高まり、政治的判断として処分が軽減されるシナリオ
3. 髪を引っ張る行為の判定基準に関する前例が曖昧で、法的観点から処分が覆る技術的根拠がある可能性
✅ Accurate⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1232Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 40% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if the Japanese government does not officially announce that commercial navigation for Japan-related vessels in the Strait of Hormuz is 'safe and stably navigable' by March 31, 2025. → ✅ Accurate📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1232Tracker-onlyNO Accurate→✅📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
✅ Accurate
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1232
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 40% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if the Japanese government does not officially announce that commercial navigation for Japan-related vessels in the Strait of Hormuz is 'safe and stably navigable' by March 31, 2025. → ✅ Accurate
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1232
Tracker-only
NO Accurate→✅
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
✅ NO Accurate
Nowpattern Brier Index: 60.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.16)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: 453cbab303ed (high)
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 米国とイランが水面下で劇的な外交合意に達し、地域全体の緊張が予想外に急速に緩和される場合。
2. 代替エネルギー供給源や輸送ルートの確保が急速に進み、ホルムズ海峡の戦略的・経済的重要性が大幅に低下する場合。
3. 日本政府が国内の政治的配慮から、実態以上に楽観的な状況発表を行うバイアスがかかる場合。
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1236Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 50% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if any of the top three convenience store chains in Japan (Seven-Eleven, FamilyMart, Lawson) launches a private brand sweet product prominently featuring dashi as a main flavor by December 31, 2025, and this product remains continuously available for sale until the end of that year. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1236Tracker-only (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1236
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 50% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if any of the top three convenience store chains in Japan (Seven-Eleven, FamilyMart, Lawson) launches a private brand sweet product prominently featuring dashi as a main flavor by December 31, 2025, and this product remains continuously available for sale until the end of that year. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1236
Tracker-only
(Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ (Missed)
Not ScoredProvisional Score
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. だしの独特な風味とスイーツの甘味の組み合わせが、想定以上に一般消費者に受け入れられず、市場が拡大しない。
2. 原材料コストや製造工程の複雑さから、大手コンビニエンスストアがPB商品として安定供給することが困難と判断される。
3. 一時的なメディア露出によるブームで終わってしまい、継続的な需要が生まれず、定番化に至らない。
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1256Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 40% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if the April 2026 G20 Finance Ministers communiqué does NOT include specific coordinated economic measures regarding the Iran situation → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1256Tracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1256
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 40% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if the April 2026 G20 Finance Ministers communiqué does NOT include specific coordinated economic measures regarding the Iran situation → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1256
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 40.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.36)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. イラン情勢が会議前に急激にエスカレートし、各国が危機感から異例の速さで具体的協調措置に合意する場合
2. 米国が国内政治的理由からG20の場を利用して多国間制裁パッケージを主導し、想定外の合意形成が進む構造的リスク
3. 過去のG20の非効率性バイアスにとらわれすぎて、近年の地政学危機時にG20が実質的な合意を出した事例を見落としている可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1258Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 30% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani is placed on the MLB Injured List (IL) by April 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1258Tracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1258
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 30% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani is placed on the MLB Injured List (IL) by April 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1258
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 70.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.09)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 死球の当たり所が想定より深刻で、精密検査の結果骨折やヒビが発覚しIL入りする場合
2. 直後は軽傷と判断されたが、数日後に腫れや可動域制限が悪化し、予防的にIL入りとなる構造的リスク
3. 「大谷は頑丈だから大丈夫」という楽観バイアスが、手術歴のある選手の累積ダメージリスクを過小評価させている可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1327Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 70% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani appears in an official MLB game (as starter or pinch-hitter) by April 21, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1327Tracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1327
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 70% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani appears in an official MLB game (as starter or pinch-hitter) by April 21, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1327
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 70.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.09)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 精密検査で骨挫傷や微細な亀裂が発見され、予防的にIL入りとなり7日以内の復帰が不可能になる
2. 球団が長期契約の資産保全を優先し、軽傷でも慎重策として10日間ILに登録する構造的インセンティブ
3. 「湿布で帰宅＝軽傷」という報道トーンに引きずられ、実際の損傷度を過小評価している可能性（楽観バイアス）
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1377Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 45% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if the FA officially confirms Lisandro Martinez's three-match ban by end of April 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1377Tracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1377
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 45% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if the FA officially confirms Lisandro Martinez's three-match ban by end of April 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1377
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 45.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.30)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. マルティネスまたはマンUが異議申し立てを行い、独立審査委員会が処分を覆すか大幅に軽減する可能性
2. FAが内部的に処分基準の見直しを始め、判断を保留・延期する構造的リスク
3. 「処分は確定するだろう」という確証バイアス — FAの過去の異議申し立て成功率を十分検証していない可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1403Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 45% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani starts every game from April 15-21, 2026 without being placed on the IL → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1403Tracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1403
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 45% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani starts every game from April 15-21, 2026 without being placed on the IL → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1403
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 45.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.30)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 死球による肩の微細な損傷が試合中に悪化し、途中交代・翌日以降の欠場につながる可能性
2. チームが連勝中やリード拡大で戦略的休養日を設定し、大谷を予防的に1試合休ませるシナリオ
3. 『出場できる＝全試合スタメン』というバイアス。DH専任でも休養日は通常シーズン中にある
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: All-Japan Gymnastics Championship: Daiki Hashimoto Tops Men'Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Daiki Hashimoto fails to win the 2026 All-Japan Gymnastics Championships men's all-around final → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisAll-Japan Gymnastics Championship: Daiki Hashimoto Tops Men's Qualifying, Advances Toward 6th Consecutive TitleTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: All-Japan Gymnastics Championship: Daiki Hashimoto Tops Men'
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Daiki Hashimoto fails to win the 2026 All-Japan Gymnastics Championships men's all-around final → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
All-Japan Gymnastics Championship: Daiki Hashimoto Tops Men's Qualifying, Advances Toward 6th Consecutive Title
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 27.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.53)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 橋本の実力が他選手を大きく上回っており、予選同様に決勝でも順当に優勝する（最も蓋然性が高い反証）
2. 全日本選手権の採点傾向や演技構成の難度差が大きく、番狂わせが構造的に起きにくい大会特性を見落としている可能性
3. 5連覇という実績から『いつか負ける』という逆張りバイアスが働き、実際の実力差を過小評価している可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Shohei Ohtani Set to Face Tomoyuki Sugano as Ballpark CovereOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 35% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani faces Tomoyuki Sugano as a batter for at least one plate appearance by April 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisShohei Ohtani Set to Face Tomoyuki Sugano as Ballpark Covered in Unusual Snowy ConditionsTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Shohei Ohtani Set to Face Tomoyuki Sugano as Ballpark Covere
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 35% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani faces Tomoyuki Sugano as a batter for at least one plate appearance by April 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Shohei Ohtani Set to Face Tomoyuki Sugano as Ballpark Covered in Unusual Snowy Conditions
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 35.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.42)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 降雪による試合延期が連鎖し、カード自体が再編成されて4月中の対戦が実現しない
2. どちらかの選手が怪我・体調不良で登録抹消され、対戦カードに出場できない
3. 記事が「対戦へ」という見込み報道であり、実際のスケジュール変更（先発ローテ変更等）で対戦が成立しない可能性を過小評価している
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: MLB Breaking News: Shohei Ohtani and Tomoyuki Sugano Face OfOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 27% confidence➡ Verdict: Shohei Ohtani hits a home run off Tomoyuki Sugano by April 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisMLB Breaking News: Shohei Ohtani and Tomoyuki Sugano Face Off in Japanese Player Pitcher-Batter ShowdownTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: MLB Breaking News: Shohei Ohtani and Tomoyuki Sugano Face Of
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 27% confidence
➡ Verdict: Shohei Ohtani hits a home run off Tomoyuki Sugano by April 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
MLB Breaking News: Shohei Ohtani and Tomoyuki Sugano Face Off in Japanese Player Pitcher-Batter Showdown
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 73.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.07)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 大谷の打撃好調期と菅野の登板が重なり、1試合で複数安打を含む本塁打を打つ可能性（打者有利の展開）
2. この対戦自体が今シーズン中に複数回行われ、試行回数が増えることで本塁打確率が上昇するリスク
3. 日本人対決への期待バイアスにより『打つだろう』という方向に引っ張られがちだが、実際には1試合2〜3打席では本塁打確率は統計的に低い
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Diverging Stances on U.S. Policy Within Iran; Strait of HormOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 19% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if US-Iran talks by end of April 2026 fail to produce any interim agreement on Hormuz Strait transit, or if talks are not held at all → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisDiverging Stances on U.S. Policy Within Iran; Strait of Hormuz Talks Expected Within DaysTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Diverging Stances on U.S. Policy Within Iran; Strait of Horm
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 19% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if US-Iran talks by end of April 2026 fail to produce any interim agreement on Hormuz Strait transit, or if talks are not held at all → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Diverging Stances on U.S. Policy Within Iran; Strait of Hormuz Talks Expected Within Days
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 81.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.04)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran
Referenced knowledge
entity:iran
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 米イランが水面下で既に大枠合意しており、対面協議で電撃的に暫定合意を発表する場合（外交サプライズ）
2. 原油価格高騰が米国内政治に深刻な影響を与え、米国政権が予想以上に早く譲歩する構造的圧力が働く場合
3. 「合意は困難」という過去のイラン交渉パターンへの過度な依存（アンカリング・バイアス）により、今回の異なる政治環境下での妥協可能性を過小評価している場合
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Earthquake of Shindo 5-kyō in Northern Nagano Prefecture, NoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 39% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if official announcement of human casualties (injuries or worse) in Northern Nagano Prefecture, related to the earthquake that occurred around 1:20 PM JST on April 18, 2026, is made within 72 hours of the event. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisEarthquake of Shindo 5-kyō in Northern Nagano Prefecture, No Tsunami ConcernTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Earthquake of Shindo 5-kyō in Northern Nagano Prefecture, No
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 39% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if official announcement of human casualties (injuries or worse) in Northern Nagano Prefecture, related to the earthquake that occurred around 1:20 PM JST on April 18, 2026, is made within 72 hours of the event. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Earthquake of Shindo 5-kyō in Northern Nagano Prefecture, No Tsunami Concern
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 61.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.15)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 報道機関や地方自治体による情報収集・発表が遅れ、72時間以内に公式発表が行われない。
2. 実際の被害が極めて軽微であり、負傷者以上の公式発表の基準に満たない、または発表されない程度の出来事だった。
3. 「負傷者以上」の定義が発表主体によって異なり、軽微な擦り傷などが公式発表の対象外と判断される可能性。
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Magnitude 5-Lower Earthquake Strikes Northern Nagano PrefectOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 12% confidence➡ Verdict: A seismic intensity of 5-upper (shindo 5-kyo) or higher is recorded in northern Nagano Prefecture by April 25, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisMagnitude 5-Lower Earthquake Strikes Northern Nagano Prefecture, Authorities Rush to Assess DamageTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Magnitude 5-Lower Earthquake Strikes Northern Nagano Prefect
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 12% confidence
➡ Verdict: A seismic intensity of 5-upper (shindo 5-kyo) or higher is recorded in northern Nagano Prefecture by April 25, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Magnitude 5-Lower Earthquake Strikes Northern Nagano Prefecture, Authorities Rush to Assess Damage
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 88.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 地震活動が単発で収束し、余震も震度3以下にとどまる場合（過去の内陸地震の多数派パターン）、予測期間内に震度5強以上は発生しない
2. この地域の断層系が想定より応力を解放済みであり、むしろ地震活動が沈静化に向かう構造的可能性を見落としている
3. 熊本地震の前震−本震パターンが強烈な印象を残しており、実際には内陸地震で前震−本震型はむしろ少数派であるという統計的事実に対して、利用可能性バイアスが働いている
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Chire Iwai Finishes 2nd, One Shot Behind Leader After RoundOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 35% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Chire Iwai finishes in the top 5 at the LPGA Tour event in Los Angeles in April 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisChire Iwai Finishes 2nd, One Shot Behind Leader After Round 2 of LPGA Tour EventTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Chire Iwai Finishes 2nd, One Shot Behind Leader After Round
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 35% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Chire Iwai finishes in the top 5 at the LPGA Tour event in Los Angeles in April 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Chire Iwai Finishes 2nd, One Shot Behind Leader After Round 2 of LPGA Tour Event
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 65.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.12)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 週末ラウンドでスコアを崩し、10位以下に後退する（米ツアーでは中盤好位置から崩れるケースが頻繁にある）
2. 他の上位選手が大きくスコアを伸ばし、相対的に順位が押し下げられる構造的リスク（混戦時の変動幅は大きい）
3. 日本人選手への期待バイアスにより、好位置＝好結果と楽観的に予測しすぎている可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1664Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 19% confidence➡ Verdict: Wales Women finish within 10 points of France in this Six Nations match → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1664Tracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1664
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 19% confidence
➡ Verdict: Wales Women finish within 10 points of France in this Six Nations match → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1664
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 81.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.04)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. フランスが主力を温存しており、実力差が想定より小さかった場合、ウェールズが接戦に持ち込む可能性がある
2. ダラヴァッレの国際経験と元キャプテンとしてのリーダーシップが過小評価されており、チーム全体のパフォーマンスを底上げする構造的要因を見落としている可能性
3. 「フランスが格上」という先入観がバイアスとなり、近年の女子ラグビーにおける戦力均衡化の傾向を軽視している可能性
✅ Accurate⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1694Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 19% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Zhao Xintong fails to reach the semi-finals of the 2026 World Snooker Championship → ✅ Accurate📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1694Tracker-onlyNO Accurate→✅📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
✅ Accurate
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1694
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 19% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Zhao Xintong fails to reach the semi-finals of the 2026 World Snooker Championship → ✅ Accurate
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1694
Tracker-only
NO Accurate→✅
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
✅ NO Accurate
Nowpattern Brier Index: 81.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.04)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 趙心童が好調を維持し、実力通りに準決勝以上に勝ち進む場合、NO予測は外れる
2. ドロー（組み合わせ）が有利で、強敵との対戦を避けられるルートが存在する構造的要因を見落としている可能性
3. ディフェンディングチャンピオンの実力を過小評価し、「僅差＝不安定」というバイアスに引きずられている可能性がある
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Bear Spotted in Sendai Residential Area; Emergency Hunting AOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 35% confidence➡ Verdict: The bear is captured or culled by April 30, 2026 without any residents sustaining serious injuries → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBear Spotted in Sendai Residential Area; Emergency Hunting Among Options Under ConsiderationTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Bear Spotted in Sendai Residential Area; Emergency Hunting A
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 35% confidence
➡ Verdict: The bear is captured or culled by April 30, 2026 without any residents sustaining serious injuries → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Bear Spotted in Sendai Residential Area; Emergency Hunting Among Options Under Consideration
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 35.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.42)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. クマが住宅街から自力で山林に戻り、捕獲・駆除されないまま「未解決」で終わる場合、判定が曖昧になる
2. 緊急銃猟の法的手続きや安全確認に時間がかかり、その間にクマが住民と接触して重傷者が出る構造的リスク
3. 過去のクマ対応成功事例に引きずられ、市街地特有の複雑さ（建物間の移動、視界不良）を過小評価している可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1744Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 19% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Wales does not win against England in their next Six Nations match. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1744Tracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1744
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 19% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Wales does not win against England in their next Six Nations match. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1744
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 81.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.04)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. ウェールズがイングランドに対し、奇跡的なパフォーマンスで勝利を収めるか、引き分けに持ち込む。
2. イングランド代表チームが、報道されていない内部の不和や主力選手の怪我により、予想外の不振に陥る。
3. 私の予測が、ウェールズの連敗という過去のデータに過度に依存し、ライバル戦での精神的な奮起やチームの潜在能力を過小評価している可能性。
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1748Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 39% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Manchester City wins against Arsenal in their match on April 19, 2026 (JST). → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1748Tracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1748
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 39% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Manchester City wins against Arsenal in their match on April 19, 2026 (JST). → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1748
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 39.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.37)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. シティの攻撃陣がアーセナルの堅守に封じられ、決定機を創出できない。
2. アーセナルがシティの攻撃を凌ぎ、カウンターやセットプレーから得点を奪う。
3. 試合のプレッシャーがシティの選手に過度にかかり、普段のパフォーマンスを発揮できない。
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Shohei Ohtani Just 1 Away from Babe Ruth's Record with 50 CoOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 35% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani reaches 51 consecutive games on base, tying Babe Ruth's record → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisShohei Ohtani Just 1 Away from Babe Ruth's Record with 50 Consecutive Games Reaching BaseTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Shohei Ohtani Just 1 Away from Babe Ruth's Record with 50 Co
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 35% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani reaches 51 consecutive games on base, tying Babe Ruth's record → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Shohei Ohtani Just 1 Away from Babe Ruth's Record with 50 Consecutive Games Reaching Base
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 35.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.42)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 次戦で相手投手が完璧な投球をし、大谷が4打数無安打・無四球に終わり記録が途切れる（1試合あたり出塁失敗確率は約10-15%）
2. 怪我や体調不良による欠場が記録の連続性を断ち切る可能性（MLBの162試合シーズンでは故障リスクは常に存在）
3. 「あと1試合」という心理的プレッシャーによるパフォーマンス低下を過小評価している可能性（確証バイアス：大谷は常にプレッシャーに強いという思い込み）
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Actor Ryuuichi Oura Announces Divorce from Wife YurieOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 19% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if a major Japanese weekly magazine publishes a detailed article on the divorce circumstances by April 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisActor Ryuuichi Oura Announces Divorce from Wife YurieTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Actor Ryuuichi Oura Announces Divorce from Wife Yurie
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 19% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if a major Japanese weekly magazine publishes a detailed article on the divorce circumstances by April 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Actor Ryuuichi Oura Announces Divorce from Wife Yurie
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 81.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.04)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 離婚の背景に第三者の存在など週刊誌が追う要素がある場合、詳細報道が出てNO予測が外れる
2. SNSでの反響が予想以上に大きく、メディアが深掘り取材に動く構造的リスクを見落としている可能性
3. 「芸能ニュースは長引かない」という自分の先入観が、実際のメディア動向を過小評価させている可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Flash Report: Earthquake with Seismic Intensity 5 Upper/LoweOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 19% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if an aftershock of seismic intensity 5-lower or greater is observed by the Japan Meteorological Agency in the Aomori Sannohe-Kamikita region within 72 hours from 16:53 JST on April 20, 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisFlash Report: Earthquake with Seismic Intensity 5 Upper/Lower Occurs in Aomori and IwateTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Flash Report: Earthquake with Seismic Intensity 5 Upper/Lowe
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 19% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if an aftershock of seismic intensity 5-lower or greater is observed by the Japan Meteorological Agency in the Aomori Sannohe-Kamikita region within 72 hours from 16:53 JST on April 20, 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Flash Report: Earthquake with Seismic Intensity 5 Upper/Lower Occurs in Aomori and Iwate
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 81.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.04)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 今回の地震が、過去の大地震とは異なる未知の断層活動によって引き起こされ、予測困難な余震活動に繋がる場合。
2. 観測網の死角で、震度計が設置されていない地域で局所的に強い揺れが発生し、それが余震として認識されない場合。
3. 地盤の特性により、当初の震度予測よりも広範囲で液状化などの二次災害が発生し、それが余震と誤認される形で情報が錯綜する場合。
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1935Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 19% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Bitcoin price does NOT reach $75,000 or below by April 27, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1935Tracker-only (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved May 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1935
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 19% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Bitcoin price does NOT reach $75,000 or below by April 27, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1935
Tracker-only
(Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved May 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ (Missed)
Not ScoredNot Scored
This prediction shows a verdict only. No Brier-based score is published. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. マクロショック（FRB利上げ示唆、地政学リスク急拡大等）がオプション満期と重なり、テクニカル的な売り圧力が増幅されてマックスペインを超えた下落が発生する
2. Deribitの建玉データが示す以上にOTC市場でのプットポジションが積み上がっており、想定外の売り圧力が顕在化する可能性がある
3. 「オプション満期はマックスペインまで下がらない」という経験則に頼りすぎている可能性 — 2026年の市場構造は機関化が進み、過去のパターンが通用しない局面があり得る
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1956Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 12% confidence➡ Verdict: Stan Moody defeats Kyren Wilson and advances to the second round of the 2026 World Snooker Championship → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1956Tracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1956
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 12% confidence
➡ Verdict: Stan Moody defeats Kyren Wilson and advances to the second round of the 2026 World Snooker Championship → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1956
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 88.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. ウィルソンが次のセッションで集中力を取り戻し、経験値の差で逆転勝利する（ベストオブ19形式では6-3のリードは重要だが、まだ決定的ではない）
2. ムーディの初日のパフォーマンスがピークであり、クルーシブルの長丁場の精神的消耗に耐えられない構造的な未熟さがある
3. 若手の勢いを過大評価するバイアス：メディアの盛り上がりに引きずられ、ウィルソンの実力と逆転実績を過小評価している可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1958Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 19% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if no earthquake of seismic intensity 5-lower or above occurs offshore or in northern inland Iwate Prefecture by April 27, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1958Tracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1958
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 19% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if no earthquake of seismic intensity 5-lower or above occurs offshore or in northern inland Iwate Prefecture by April 27, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1958
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 81.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.04)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 震度3が前震であり、数日以内にM6クラスの本震が発生した場合、NO予測は外れる
2. 北上低地西縁断層帯など既知の活断層が活動期に入っており、短期間で大きな地震につながるリスクを過小評価している可能性
3. 「震度3程度は日常的」という正常性バイアスにより、群発地震化や応力蓄積の兆候を見落としている可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1984Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 39% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Donald Trump makes a public statement by April 27, 2026, causing Bitcoin's price (CoinDesk BPI) to move by 5% or more (up or down) within 24 hours of the statement. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-1984Tracker-only (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved May 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-1984
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 39% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Donald Trump makes a public statement by April 27, 2026, causing Bitcoin's price (CoinDesk BPI) to move by 5% or more (up or down) within 24 hours of the statement. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-1984
Tracker-only
(Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved May 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ (Missed)
Not ScoredNot Scored
This prediction shows a verdict only. No Brier-based score is published. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=trump/bitcoin
Referenced knowledge
entity:trumpentity:bitcoin
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. トランプ氏が今週、ビットコインに言及する機会を逸するか、あるいは意図的に発言を控える。
2. トランプ氏の発言があったとしても、市場が既に織り込み済みで、5%以上の大きな変動につながらない。
3. 他の大きなマクロ経済イベントや規制発表が優勢となり、トランプ氏の発言の影響が相殺される。
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: President Trump States Ceasefire Extension with Iran 'ExtremOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 12% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if no official ceasefire extension or new comprehensive agreement framework between the US and Iran is established by April 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPresident Trump States Ceasefire Extension with Iran 'Extremely Unlikely'Tracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: President Trump States Ceasefire Extension with Iran 'Extrem
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 12% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if no official ceasefire extension or new comprehensive agreement framework between the US and Iran is established by April 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
President Trump States Ceasefire Extension with Iran 'Extremely Unlikely'
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 88.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.01)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=iran/trump
Referenced knowledge
entity:iranentity:trump
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 水面下の仲介外交（オマーン・カタール等）が予想以上に進展し、期限前後に劇的な合意が成立する場合。トランプは過去にも直前で態度を翻した実績がある。
2. イラン国内の政治力学の変化（改革派の台頭や最高指導者の方針転換）により、予想外のタイミングで協議復帰が実現する構造的可能性を見落としている。
3. 「強硬発言＝行動」と直結させるバイアス。トランプの公的発言と実際の政策決定の間には大きな乖離があり、停戦延長しないという発言自体が交渉戦術に過ぎない可能性。
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Balk Called During Shohei Ohtani's At-Bat, Resulting in UnusOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 19% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani's April 2026 monthly batting average finishes below .300 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisBalk Called During Shohei Ohtani's At-Bat, Resulting in Unusual Re-DoTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Balk Called During Shohei Ohtani's At-Bat, Resulting in Unus
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 19% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani's April 2026 monthly batting average finishes below .300 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Balk Called During Shohei Ohtani's At-Bat, Resulting in Unusual Re-Do
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 19.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.66)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 大谷が4月後半に打撃爆発し、月間打率が.300を超える（最も蓋然性の高い反証）
2. 試合数の少なさや打席数の偏りにより、統計的にブレが大きく予測自体が無意味になる可能性
3. 日本人選手への応援バイアスで楽観的な情報ばかり目に入り、実際の調子の悪さを過小評価している可能性
✅ Accurate⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-2069Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 19% confidence➡ Verdict: Jak Jones does NOT reach the final of the 2026 World Snooker Championship → ✅ Accurate📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-2069Tracker-onlyNO Accurate→✅📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
✅ Accurate
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-2069
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 19% confidence
➡ Verdict: Jak Jones does NOT reach the final of the 2026 World Snooker Championship → ✅ Accurate
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-2069
Tracker-only
NO Accurate→✅
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
✅ NO Accurate
Nowpattern Brier Index: 81.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.04)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. ジョーンズが好調なフォームとドローの恵まれた組み合わせにより実際に決勝進出を果たすケース（歴史的に決勝再進出は稀だが不可能ではない）
2. 今シーズンの成績データを十分に確認できておらず、ジョーンズが実はランキング上位で安定した戦績を残している可能性を過小評価している
3. 「決勝再進出は稀」という過去の統計バイアスに依存しすぎており、ジョーンズ個人の成長曲線や技術的進化を軽視している可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-2152Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 19% confidence➡ Verdict: A major UK astronomy organization (e.g. BAA) officially reports 15 or more Lyrid meteors per hour during the April 2026 peak → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-2152Tracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-2152
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 19% confidence
➡ Verdict: A major UK astronomy organization (e.g. BAA) officially reports 15 or more Lyrid meteors per hour during the April 2026 peak → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-2152
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 81.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.04)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 英国の天候が予想外に良好で、かつ突発的な流星群活動の増加（アウトバースト）が発生し、15個/時を大幅に超える観測が報告される
2. 観測報告の集計方法やソースの定義が曖昧で、SNS上の非公式報告を含めると15個/時を超えたと解釈される可能性
3. 天文現象に対する楽観バイアス（「見たい」という願望）を過小評価し、実際には条件が良ければ通常でも15個/時に達しうることを見落としている可能性
✅ Accurate⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-2179Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 19% confidence➡ Verdict: Ronnie O'Sullivan fails to win the 2026 World Snooker Championship → ✅ Accurate📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-2179Tracker-onlyNO Accurate→✅📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
✅ Accurate
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-2179
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 19% confidence
➡ Verdict: Ronnie O'Sullivan fails to win the 2026 World Snooker Championship → ✅ Accurate
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-2179
Tracker-only
NO Accurate→✅
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
✅ NO Accurate
Nowpattern Brier Index: 60.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.16)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. オサリバンが今大会で例外的な好調を維持し、全試合を制して優勝した場合、NO予測は外れる
2. ドロー（対戦表）が有利に展開し、主要ライバルが早期敗退することでオサリバンの優勝確率が構造的に上昇するリスク
3. レジェンドの記録達成という物語に引きずられてNOを選んだが、実際にはオサリバンの実力は依然としてトップレベルであるという事実を過小評価している可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-2204Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 26% confidence➡ Verdict: Ella Toone appears on the pitch (starting or as a substitute) in the Tottenham match on 26 April 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-2204Tracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-2204
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 26% confidence
➡ Verdict: Ella Toone appears on the pitch (starting or as a substitute) in the Tottenham match on 26 April 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-2204
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 26.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.55)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 金曜日のトレーニングで負傷部位に痛みや違和感が再発し、医療スタッフが出場を許可しない
2. クラブがシーズン全体のスケジュールを考慮し、リスク回避のため復帰を翌週以降に先送りする経営判断を行う
3. 「復帰は近い」という報道バイアスにより、実際のフィットネス水準を過大評価している可能性
✅ Accurate⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: SoftBank Pitcher Kazuki Sugiyama Fractures Left Finger PunchOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 25% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Kazuki Sugiyama is registered on the first-team roster and appears in an official NPB game by April 30, 2026 → ✅ Accurate📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisSoftBank Pitcher Kazuki Sugiyama Fractures Left Finger Punching Dugout Bench, Aims for First-Team Return in AprilTracker-onlyNO Accurate→✅📅 Resolved May 2026▼
✅ Accurate
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: SoftBank Pitcher Kazuki Sugiyama Fractures Left Finger Punch
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 25% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Kazuki Sugiyama is registered on the first-team roster and appears in an official NPB game by April 30, 2026 → ✅ Accurate
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
SoftBank Pitcher Kazuki Sugiyama Fractures Left Finger Punching Dugout Bench, Aims for First-Team Return in April
Tracker-only
NO Accurate→✅
📅 Resolved May 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
✅ NO Accurate
Nowpattern Brier Index: 75.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.06)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 骨折の回復が予想より遅れ、4月中のリハビリが完了しない場合
2. 球団がメンタル面のリスクを再評価し、慎重に復帰時期を5月以降に先送りする場合
3. 「4月復帰」という報道自体が球団の希望的観測であり、実際の医療判断と乖離している可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Women's Golf Overseas Major 1st Tournament: 11 of 15 JapanesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 49% confidence➡ Verdict: A Japanese player finishes in the top 5 at the first women's golf major of 2026. → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisWomen's Golf Overseas Major 1st Tournament: 11 of 15 Japanese Players Advance to Final RoundTracker-onlyNO (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Women's Golf Overseas Major 1st Tournament: 11 of 15 Japanes
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 49% confidence
➡ Verdict: A Japanese player finishes in the top 5 at the first women's golf major of 2026. → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Women's Golf Overseas Major 1st Tournament: 11 of 15 Japanese Players Advance to Final Round
Tracker-only
NO (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ NO (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 51.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.24)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
🧭 Causal Map
Referenced causal context
entities=japan
Referenced knowledge
entity:japan
Why this matters
1MISS時の平均確信度が高い場合、この人物/組織の行動予測で過信傾向あり
2推奨**: この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
3この人物に関する新規予測は確率を10-15%低めに補正を検討
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 日本勢の中から決勝ラウンドで大きくスコアを伸ばす選手が現れ、トップ5に食い込む（楽観シナリオの実現）
2. 11位タイからの逆転は歴史的に珍しくなく、メジャーの週末はリーダーボードが大きく動くため、現在の順位差は見た目ほど大きくない可能性
3. 日本選手の海外メジャー実績が近年急速に向上しており、過去の基準率がもはや適用できないほど構造変化が起きている可能性（自身の保守バイアス）
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Hanshin's Shota Morishita Hit by Pitch, Fans Erupt in Anger,Our Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 26% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Shota Morishita appears in an NPB first-team official game (starting or as substitute) by May 2, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisHanshin's Shota Morishita Hit by Pitch, Fans Erupt in Anger, Koshien Briefly in UproarTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved May 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Hanshin's Shota Morishita Hit by Pitch, Fans Erupt in Anger,
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 26% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Shota Morishita appears in an NPB first-team official game (starting or as substitute) by May 2, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Hanshin's Shota Morishita Hit by Pitch, Fans Erupt in Anger, Koshien Briefly in Uproar
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved May 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 26.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.55)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. 死球の部位が手首や肘など打撃に直結する箇所で、検査の結果骨折が判明し登録抹消となるケース
2. 外見上は軽傷でも、大事を取って首脳陣が戦略的に休養させる判断をする可能性（交流戦前の調整期間など）
3. 「主力打者は軽傷ならすぐ復帰する」という楽観バイアスが確率を過大評価させている可能性
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-2241Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 62% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if the Fitzpatrick brothers do NOT win the 2026 Zurich Classic of New Orleans → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-2241Tracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-2241
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 62% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if the Fitzpatrick brothers do NOT win the 2026 Zurich Classic of New Orleans → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-2241
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 62.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.14)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. フィッツパトリック兄弟が最終ラウンドで大きくスコアを伸ばし、実際に優勝してしまうケース。マットの大舞台での勝負強さは証明済み。
2. 他の上位ペアが最終日に崩れ、棚ぼた的に兄弟が優勝圏に浮上する構造的可能性を過小評価している。
3. 「兄弟ペアは優勝しにくい」という先入観が判断を歪めている可能性。実際にはペア戦のケミストリーは血縁関係で有利に働く。
❌ Missed⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Dodgers' Ohtani Strikes Out 3 Times, Cubs' Suzuki Also GoesOur Conclusion (at Publication)● YES 24% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani records a batting average of .300 or above across all games from April 26 to April 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisDodgers' Ohtani Strikes Out 3 Times, Cubs' Suzuki Also Goes Hitless as Cubs Rally for Come-From-Behind VictoryTracker-onlyYES (Missed)→❌📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
❌ Missed
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Dodgers' Ohtani Strikes Out 3 Times, Cubs' Suzuki Also Goes
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● YES 24% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if Shohei Ohtani records a batting average of .300 or above across all games from April 26 to April 30, 2026 → ❌ Missed
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Dodgers' Ohtani Strikes Out 3 Times, Cubs' Suzuki Also Goes Hitless as Cubs Rally for Come-From-Behind Victory
Tracker-only
YES (Missed)→❌
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
❌ YES (Missed)
Nowpattern Brier Index: 24.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.58)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. カブス投手陣の攻略パターンが他チームにも共有され、大谷が短期的に苦戦が続く可能性
2. 大谷にコンディション面の微細な問題（疲労・軽微な故障）があり、単なる不調ではない可能性
3. サンプルサイズが5日間と小さく、1試合の結果で大きく振れるため、予測の精度自体が構造的に低い
✅ Accurate⏳ Deadline: Deadline not setResolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-2320Our Conclusion (at Publication)● NO 49% confidence➡ Verdict: HIT if John Higgins fails to reach the semi-finals of the 2026 World Snooker Championship → ✅ Accurate📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysisPrediction NP-2026-2320Tracker-onlyYES Accurate→✅📅 Resolved Apr 2026▼
✅ Accurate
▼⏳ Deadline: Deadline not set
Resolved: This forecast is judged against the published YES/NO resolution rule shown on this card.
Key Event: Prediction NP-2026-2320
Our Conclusion (at Publication)
● NO 49% confidence
➡ Verdict: HIT if John Higgins fails to reach the semi-finals of the 2026 World Snooker Championship → ✅ Accurate
📊 No market data — Nowpattern original analysis
Prediction NP-2026-2320
Tracker-only
YES Accurate→✅
📅 Resolved Apr 2026Our Prediction (at publication)
No market data
Result
✅ YES Accurate
Nowpattern Brier Index: 60.0% Provisional Score
Public display uses Brier Index (from raw Brier 0.16)
This score is backfilled from post-hoc probabilities and is awaiting independent / OTS confirmation. Audit details ↗
▼ ?? Resolution Evidence
The supporting evidence bundle for this resolution is recorded and fingerprinted below.
Integrity fingerprint: —
▼ Scenario Backgrounds
No scenario data (0%)
No scenario data case in the published scenario split (0%).
⚠️ Pre-mortem — Conditions for failure
1. ヒギンズが逆転勝利の勢いそのままに準々決勝も勝利し、準決勝進出を果たす場合（モメンタム効果の過小評価）
2. ドロー（対戦表）が有利に働き、準々決勝の相手が格下で消耗なく勝ち上がる場合
3. 「50歳のレジェンドは衰えている」という年齢バイアスが判断を歪めている可能性
Disclaimer
本サイトの記事は情報提供・教育目的のみであり、投資助言ではありません。記載されたシナリオと確率は分析者の見解であり、将来の結果を保証するものではありません。過去の予測精度は将来の精度を保証しません。特定の金融商品の売買を推奨していません。投資判断は読者自身の責任で行ってください。 This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scenarios and probabilities are analytical opinions, not guarantees of future outcomes. Past prediction accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy. We do not recommend buying or selling any specific financial instruments.
予測トラッカーを見る View Prediction Track Record
本サイトの記事は情報提供・教育目的のみであり、投資助言ではありません。記載されたシナリオと確率は分析者の見解であり、将来の結果を保証するものではありません。過去の予測精度は将来の精度を保証しません。特定の金融商品の売買を推奨していません。投資判断は読者自身の責任で行ってください。 This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Scenarios and probabilities are analytical opinions, not guarantees of future outcomes. Past prediction accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy. We do not recommend buying or selling any specific financial instruments.
予測トラッカーを見る View Prediction Track Record