Scoring and Resolution — Brier Score and Outcome Rules

Nowpattern

Scoring and Resolution — Brier Score and Outcome Rules

A reader-facing methodology page that separates scoring, resolution, and integrity.

1121Registered forecasts58Resolved54Publicly scored32.1%Brier Index

What is a Brier Score?

Nowpattern keeps the raw Brier value internally and shows a reader-facing Brier Index publicly. The current public sample is 54 scored forecasts, with a binary judged sample of 54.

All current prediction scores are provisional pending blockchain timestamp confirmation. Binary Accuracy is 36 hit / 18 miss / n=54. Public Brier Index is 32.1% (raw Brier 0.4608 / n=54).

Formula

BS = (initial_prob / 100 - actual_outcome)^2

For HIT, outcome=1. For MISS, outcome=0. The public Brier Index is shown as (1 - sqrt(Brier)) * 100.

• NP-2026-0001 at 90% and HIT → 0.0100
• NP-2026-0001 at 90% and MISS → 0.8100
• NP-2026-0921 at 11% and HIT → 0.7921

Resolution process

1. A forecast starts in an event-pending state
2. After the deadline passes, it moves to awaiting evidence
3. Once objective evidence is available, the verdict is locked as HIT, MISS, or NOT_SCORED
4. Public pages separate Binary Judged Accuracy from Public Brier Index

Score provenance tiers

The current public tier is PROVISIONAL. This is how we separate “a score exists” from “the strongest proof chain exists.”

The public surface is rendered from the 2026-04-04-public-state-v2 state model, which separates event pending, awaiting evidence, and resolved states. See the prediction tracker and integrity page for the live surface.