Forecast Integrity and Audit — Tamper Resistance and Limits
Nowpattern
Forecast Integrity and Audit — Tamper Resistance and Limits
A reader-facing methodology page that separates scoring, resolution, and integrity.
1121Registered forecasts58Resolved54Publicly scored32.1%Brier Index
Integrity pledge
Nowpattern keeps hits, misses, and excluded cases visible. The current public state is resolved=58, publicly scorable=54, excluded=4.
The live tracker currently contains 1105 article-backed rows and 16 tracker-only rows. A tracker-only row means the forecast record is public, but a same-language article backing has not been published yet.
Anti-tampering mechanisms
- initial_prob write-once — the probability used for scoring is not swapped after publication
- prediction ledger — append-only event records preserve registration and resolution flow
- integrity hash / OTS — stronger evidence tiers are earned, not assumed
Current prediction scores are based on a 2026-03-29 backfill of legacy records. That is why PROVISIONAL remains the dominant public tier until stronger timestamp proofs are attached.
Public state model
The current reader-facing state contract version is 2026-04-04-public-state-v2. It splits forecast lifecycle, resolution lifecycle, and language-specific publication state so that counts and meaning stay aligned.
Current audit chain
The live integrity status is ok. The append-only event history currently holds 5 entries, and the per-prediction snapshot chain holds 1127 entries. The current checks report history_ok=True / snapshot_ok=True.
How readers can verify independently
Use the score disclaimer, resolution evidence, and public Brier sample on each card to see what is scored and what is excluded. The legacy overview remains at Integrity & Audit; this page is the deeper technical path.