Integrity & Audit — Why Prediction Records Cannot Be Altered
What This Page Explains
This page explains the evidence tiers behind Nowpattern scores and the tamper-resistance model behind prediction records.
Public labels change automatically as record state, verification state, and cryptographic evidence change. What matters here is which proof conditions each prediction satisfies.
PROVISIONAL
- Meaning
- The default public label. A score can be computed, but the strongest evidence chain is not yet complete.
- When It Applies
- Predictions whose probability record or verification trail is still being migrated or confirmed.
- Public Display
- Shown as provisional on score displays until stronger proof conditions are met.
MIGRATED_OFFICIAL
- Meaning
- A legacy prediction whose evidence trail has been strengthened after the original publication flow.
- When It Applies
- Ledger continuity and OTS confirmation are both available for migrated evidence.
- Public Display
- Only predictions that satisfy the migration requirements are upgraded automatically.
VERIFIED_OFFICIAL
- Meaning
- The strongest evidence tier, where pre-publication hashing and later verification remain traceable end to end.
- When It Applies
- The prediction is locked with SHA-256 before publication and later confirmed through the OTS path.
- Public Display
- Only predictions that satisfy the full proof chain are shown as verified.
NOT_SCORABLE
- Meaning
- The question cannot be scored consistently with objective evidence.
- When It Applies
- A stable resolution cannot be established even after review.
- Public Display
- Excluded from Brier aggregation and shown as non-scorable.
Why Provisional Labels Still Exist
The public corpus contains a mix of predictions with stronger proof chains and predictions that are still moving through verification. That is why provisional remains the safe default until the required evidence is complete.
When the required conditions are met, individual predictions upgrade to MIGRATED_OFFICIAL or VERIFIED_OFFICIAL automatically. The key question is which proof conditions each prediction satisfies.