Forecast Rules — How Nowpattern Makes Predictions

About Nowpattern Predictions

Nowpattern is a prediction platform that combines dynamics analysis with verifiable forecasts. All predictions are published alongside articles and are automatically verified after their oracle deadline.

Prediction Structure

Each prediction consists of the following fields:

Resolution question: A YES/NO question — "Did X happen?"
Nowpattern's forecast: YES/NO and probability (0–100%)
Hit condition: The explicit condition for counting a prediction as correct
Oracle deadline: The date by which the prediction is resolved
Polymarket market probability: Market consensus probability, when available

What the Probability Means

Nowpattern's probabilities aim for calibration. A 70% prediction means the underlying event should happen about 70% of the time. It is not a simple "bullish/bearish" expression.

Successor Predictions

After an original prediction resolves, a new prediction on the same theme may be created. This is called a "successor prediction." Successor predictions are tracked and scored independently.

Note on Provisional Scores

⚠️ All current scores are Provisional (暫定計算値).

Probabilities for predictions created before March 2026 were backfilled retroactively from current values rather than locked at the original publication timestamp. Independent third-party verification is not possible at this time.

Details: Integrity & Audit

Prediction Statuses

OPEN: Active prediction (not yet resolved)
RESOLVING: Resolution in progress
RESOLVED / HIT: Prediction was correct
RESOLVED / MISS: Prediction was incorrect
EXPIRED_UNRESOLVED: Deadline passed without resolution
NOT_SCORED: Excluded from scoring

See all predictions: Prediction Tracker