The Structure Behind Bitcoin Surpassing 10 Million
With "the last big buyers"—hedge funds and pension funds—beginning their full-scale entry into the crypto asset market, Bitcoin is irreversibly transitioning from a speculative commodity to an institutional asset class. This structural shift will fundamentally alter not only prices but also the risk allocation of the entire financial system.
── Understand in 3 points ─────────
- • The market is discussing the possibility of Bitcoin reaching a price range of 10 million to 12 million yen (approx. $65,000-$78,000) by early 2026.
- • Major U.S. hedge funds (Bridgewater, Citadel, etc.) are accelerating their moves to incorporate 1-3% Bitcoin into their portfolios.
- • Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) is reportedly advancing research into alternative investments, including crypto assets.
── NOW PATTERN ─────────
The institutional path dependency of Bitcoin ETF approval is making institutional investor entry irreversible, and a self-reinforcing cycle of capital inflow is forming a winner-takes-all structure. This movement is spreading as a chain of contagion to regulatory authorities, pension funds, and corporations in various countries.
── Probability and Response ──────
• Base case 50% — Monthly capital inflow into ETFs at a stable pace of $3-5 billion, FRB interest rate cuts at a quarterly pace, discussions on Japanese tax reform materialize but do not lead to legislation
• Bull case 25% — FRB implements significant interest rate cuts of 50bp or more, major pension funds announce BTC allocation, Japanese crypto asset separate taxation is legislated, reports of BRICS sovereign BTC demand
• Bear case 25% — New regulatory measures by the SEC, bankruptcy of a major crypto asset company, FRB shifts to interest rate hikes, major security incident, risk-off due to geopolitical shock
📡 The Signal — What Happened
Why it's important: With "the last big buyers"—hedge funds and pension funds—beginning their full-scale entry into the crypto asset market, Bitcoin is irreversibly transitioning from a speculative commodity to an institutional asset class. This structural shift will fundamentally alter not only prices but also the risk allocation of the entire financial system.
- Price Trends — The market is discussing the possibility of Bitcoin reaching a price range of 10 million to 12 million yen (approx. $65,000-$78,000) by early 2026.
- Institutional Investors — Major U.S. hedge funds (Bridgewater, Citadel, etc.) are accelerating their moves to incorporate 1-3% Bitcoin into their portfolios.
- Pension Funds — Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) is reportedly advancing research into alternative investments, including crypto assets.
- ETF — Cumulative capital inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs, approved in the U.S. in January 2024, exceeded approximately $50 billion by the end of 2025, making institutional investor access dramatically easier.
- Halving — The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 reduced the new supply from approximately 900 BTC per day to approximately 450 BTC, strengthening supply constraints.
- Regulation — Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) has indicated a policy to reorganize crypto assets within the framework of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act in 2025, and discussions are underway for a shift to separate taxation in terms of tax.
- Macro Environment — The FRB entered an interest rate cut cycle from late 2025, with the FF rate falling to 4.0-4.25% by March 2026, boosting capital inflow into risk assets.
- Geopolitics — Emerging economies (BRICS countries) seeking de-dollarization are reportedly considering Bitcoin as a complementary means of foreign exchange reserves.
- Technology — The spread of the Lightning Network and the development of Layer 2 solutions are improving Bitcoin's payment utility.
- Corporate Holdings — MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings reached approximately 250,000 BTC by the end of 2025, continuing the trend of corporate BTC holdings.
- Japanese Market — Monthly trading volume on Japanese crypto asset exchanges increased by approximately 60% year-on-year in 2025, with expanding participation from individual investors.
- Mining — Bitcoin's hash rate continues to set new records, strengthening network security and decentralization.
To understand the phenomenon of Bitcoin approaching the psychological milestone of 10 million yen, we need to look back at the 15-year structural evolution of the crypto asset market.
When Satoshi Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin to the world in 2009, it was merely an experiment by cryptographers and libertarians. For the first decade, Bitcoin swung wildly between the narrative of "digital gold" and the criticism of "speculative bubble." While Bitcoin first gained attention as a "safe-haven asset" during the 2013 Cyprus financial crisis and became ingrained in public consciousness during the 2017 ICO bubble, these were both within the realm of speculative fervor.
The turning point came in 2020. The massive monetary easing by central banks worldwide in response to the COVID-19 pandemic reinforced the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency dilution. Paul Tudor Jones publicly declared Bitcoin as an "inflation hedge," and Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy began holding BTC as corporate assets, paving the initial path for institutional investor entry.
However, the FTX collapse and Terra-Luna crash in 2022 dealt a devastating blow to the crypto industry. This "crypto winter" purified the industry while clarifying the need for stronger regulation. Ironically, this regulatory strengthening became the catalyst for accelerating institutional investor entry. After the FTX collapse, the U.S. SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) intensified its oversight of crypto asset exchanges and raised compliance standards. This regulatory clarity lowered the barrier to entry for institutional investors who prioritize risk management.
The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in January 2024 was a decisive turning point in this trend. With the world's largest asset management companies like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Vanguard beginning to offer Bitcoin ETFs, traditional institutional investors such as pension funds, insurance companies, and university endowments gained access to Bitcoin without compliance hurdles. This is structurally the same pattern as the impact on the gold market when gold ETFs were approved in 2004.
The situation in Japan is also noteworthy. Japan, once a hotbed of caution towards crypto assets due to the Mount Gox incident (2014), has seen gradual regulatory development by the Financial Services Agency (FSA), and discussions on crypto asset tax reform gained momentum in 2025. The transition from the current miscellaneous income tax (up to 55%) to separate self-assessment income tax (20%) will significantly lower the effective barrier to crypto asset investment for both individual and institutional investors in Japan.
The macroeconomic context is also crucial. The FRB's rapid interest rate hike cycle from 2022 to 2023 pressured risk assets across the board, but the shift to interest rate cuts from late 2025 created an environment for excess liquidity to return to risk assets. Historically, the 12-18 months after the start of an FRB rate-cutting cycle is the period of best performance for risk assets, and Bitcoin is benefiting from this pattern.
Furthermore, the Bitcoin halving in April 2024 is strengthening supply-side constraints. After the past three halvings (2012, 2016, 2020), Bitcoin has repeatedly set new all-time highs within 12-18 months. If this pattern continues after the 2024 halving, the period from late 2025 to early 2026 will be the peak formation period for prices.
From a geopolitical perspective, challenges to the dollar's unipolar dominance are strengthening Bitcoin's position as a "neutral reserve asset." The movement of BRICS countries towards de-dollarization and the precedent of SWIFT exclusion due to sanctions against Russia are creating motivation for nations to consider Bitcoin as part of their foreign exchange reserves. El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021 was a pioneering case, but from 2025 onwards, countries with larger economies are beginning to show interest in this experiment.
The simultaneous action of these multiple structural factors—regulatory clarity, easier access via ETFs, supply constraints from halving, monetary easing cycles, and geopolitical demand—is what makes the current phase qualitatively different from past bubbles. The question is whether these factors will support sustained price increases or if they will repeat the cycle of overheating and collapse, as in the past.
The delta: Bitcoin is at a turning point, transitioning from a "speculative asset" to an "institutional asset class." The approval of spot ETFs has removed access barriers for institutional investors, and supply constraints from halving combined with increased demand from interest rate cut cycles are acting simultaneously. This structural change is not a temporary boom but an irreversible shift in Bitcoin's position within the financial system, and the breakthrough to 10 million yen is merely a superficial indicator of this.
🔍 Between the Lines — What the Reports Aren't Saying
While official discussions speak of "portfolio diversification" and "digital gold," what institutional investors truly fear is "the risk of not holding Bitcoin." Capital flow data after ETF approval suggests that pension funds and university endowments are beginning allocations, pressured by client demands. The background to the FSA's urgent reorganization of crypto asset regulations is an unstated sense of crisis regarding the outflow of capital and talent to Singapore and Hong Kong. In other words, while ostensibly for "investor protection," the reality is "deregulation as industrial policy," and this gap between stated policy and true intent is key to understanding future policy directions.
NOW PATTERN
Path Dependency × Winner-Takes-All × Chain of Contagion
The institutional path dependency of Bitcoin ETF approval is making institutional investor entry irreversible, and a self-reinforcing cycle of capital inflow is forming a winner-takes-all structure. This movement is spreading as a chain of contagion to regulatory authorities, pension funds, and corporations in various countries.
Intersection of Dynamics
Path dependency, winner-takes-all, and the chain of contagion—these three dynamics do not act independently but form mutually reinforcing feedback loops. This intersection is precisely where the structural foundation for Bitcoin's breakthrough to 10 million yen lies.
Path dependency accelerates winner-takes-all. Once institutional infrastructure like ETFs is established, institutional capital concentrates on Bitcoin, which has the highest liquidity and is the most institutionally prepared. It will take years for other crypto assets to gain institutional legitimacy comparable to Bitcoin, during which time Bitcoin's first-mover advantage will further expand.
Winner-takes-all promotes the chain of contagion. As Bitcoin establishes itself as the "default crypto asset" in institutional portfolios, "not investing in Bitcoin" itself becomes perceived as a risk. This becomes a powerful selling point for pension fund consultants and asset management companies, accelerating the speed of contagion.
The chain of contagion deepens path dependency. As more institutional investors enter, Bitcoin's market liquidity tends to improve, and volatility tends to decrease. Lower volatility facilitates further institutional investor entry, which creates new path dependency. This positive feedback loop acts to irreversibly establish Bitcoin as an "institutional asset class."
However, the intersection of these three dynamics can also operate similarly during downturns. If large-scale regulatory changes or macroeconomic shocks occur while institutional capital is concentrated in Bitcoin, the chain of contagion could act in reverse, and path dependency could create a situation where a "selling" cascade cannot be stopped. Recognizing this bidirectional nature is essential for correctly evaluating the current optimism.
📚 Pattern History
2004: Approval of Gold ETF (GLD) and Rise in Gold Prices
The introduction of institutional access through ETFs accelerated capital inflow from institutional investors, forming a long-term upward trend in asset prices.
Structural similarities with the current situation: After the approval of the gold ETF in 2004, gold prices more than tripled in approximately 7 years (from approx. $400 to approx. $1900). ETFs acted as a "conduit" for new demand, changing the market structure itself by attracting previously inaccessible investor segments. Bitcoin spot ETFs are highly likely to follow a similar pattern.
2000s: Spread of Alternative Investments to Institutional Investors
In the process of hedge funds and private equity being incorporated into pension fund portfolios, once initial skeptical institutions entered, others followed in an avalanche.
Structural similarities with the current situation: The endowment model (proposed by David Swensen of the Yale University Endowment) became widespread, and allocations to alternative investments spread to pension funds globally within a few years. Initial allocations of 2-5% reached 20-30% a decade later. The inclusion of Bitcoin in institutional investor portfolios could show a similar acceleration pattern.
2017: Approval of Bitcoin Futures and the 2018 Crash
The first step of institutionalization created excessive short-term expectations, leading to a price bubble and its collapse, but contributed to market maturity in the long run.
Structural similarities with the current situation: When CBOE and CME listed Bitcoin futures in December 2017, BTC price surged to approximately $20,000 before crashing to around $3,200 in 2018. However, the existence of a futures market provided institutional investors with risk management tools and contributed to long-term market maturity. The current ETF approval also carries short-term overheating risks but will contribute to market stabilization in the long run.
1971: Nixon Shock and the End of the Gold Standard
When confidence in the existing currency system wavers, demand for alternative stores of value surges.
Structural similarities with the current situation: After the collapse of the gold standard, gold prices rose approximately 20-fold throughout the 1970s. Demand for hedging against fiat currency depreciation supported this rise. The current increase in demand for Bitcoin is structurally similar, acting as a hedge against central bank balance sheet expansion and fiat currency dilution.
2020: Large-scale Monetary Easing and Bitcoin Surge After COVID-19 Shock
Massive liquidity injections by central banks boosted risk assets across the board, accelerating capital inflow into alternative assets like Bitcoin in particular.
Structural similarities with the current situation: After the FRB resumed zero interest rates and quantitative easing in March 2020, Bitcoin rose from approximately $6,000 to approximately $69,000 in November 2021. Excess liquidity disproportionately flows into risk assets, especially those with limited supply. While the current interest rate cut cycle is not as rapid as in 2020, the direction is the same, and Bitcoin is likely to benefit from this pattern again.
Patterns Revealed by History
What emerges from historical patterns is the principle that when "the creation of institutional access" and "changes in the macroeconomic environment" act simultaneously, asset prices rise non-linearly. The rise in gold prices after the 2004 gold ETF approval, the spread of alternative investments in the 2000s, and the Bitcoin surge after COVID in 2020 all embody this pattern. Common to all are three simultaneously satisfied conditions: (1) institutional changes that make new investor segments accessible, (2) declining confidence in the existing financial system, and (3) concentrated demand for supply-constrained assets. The current environment surrounding Bitcoin fulfills all three conditions in the form of the completion of institutional conduits like ETFs, supply constraints from halving, and the shift to a central bank easing cycle. However, as the crash after the 2017 futures approval shows, there is also a risk that excessive expectations can form a bubble in the early stages of institutionalization. History rhymes, but it does not repeat the same poem.
🔮 Next Scenarios
Bitcoin will temporarily break 10 million yen (approx. $65,000) by March 2026 but will not sustain this level, fluctuating in the 8 million to 11 million yen range. Institutional investor entry will continue, but at a slower pace than optimists expect. Capital inflow into Bitcoin spot ETFs will continue at a pace of $3-5 billion per month, with annual cumulative inflows reaching $40-60 billion. However, pension fund entry will be limited to a few advanced funds, and ultra-large funds like GPIF will not reach the stage of actually purchasing Bitcoin. FRB interest rate cuts will continue, but the risk of re-accelerating inflation may slow the pace of cuts. By March 2026, the FF rate will remain around 4.0%, not reaching the significant easing expected by the market. In this environment, Bitcoin will be robust as a risk asset but will not experience explosive growth. Japanese tax reform will remain in the discussion phase, and separate taxation for crypto assets will not be included in the 2026 tax reform outline. This will limit institutional investor entry from within Japan. However, the ongoing depreciation of the yen will act as a factor pushing up the yen-denominated price of dollar-denominated Bitcoin, making a 10 million yen breakthrough in yen terms possible. On the regulatory front, the SEC and CFTC will advance the framework for crypto asset regulation, but the possibility of new restrictive regulations being introduced remains. Overall, Bitcoin will steadily progress towards becoming an institutional asset class, but its pace will be more "gradual" than "revolutionary."
Implications for Investment/Action: Monthly capital inflow into ETFs at a stable pace of $3-5 billion, FRB interest rate cuts at a quarterly pace, discussions on Japanese tax reform materialize but do not lead to legislation
Bitcoin will break 12 million yen (approx. $78,000) by March 2026 and enter an upward trend aiming for 15 million yen (approx. $100,000). There are multiple catalysts for this scenario. First, the FRB will undertake more aggressive interest rate cuts than expected, with the FF rate falling below 3.5% by March 2026. Signs of an economic slowdown will strengthen the FRB's easing stance, recreating a 2020-like environment where excess liquidity flows into risk assets. Second, major pension funds (CalPERS and GPIF) will formally announce allocations to Bitcoin ETFs, giving final approval to its "institutional legitimacy." This will accelerate the chain of contagion, with institutional investors worldwide simultaneously beginning Bitcoin allocations. Third, the Japanese government will announce the application of separate taxation (20%) for crypto assets from fiscal year 2026, leading to a surge in capital inflow from both individual and institutional investors in Japan. Fourth, some BRICS countries will formally declare a policy to include Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves, adding a new source of sovereign demand. If these factors combine, Bitcoin's price will significantly surpass its all-time high, following the post-halving cycle pattern of 2024. However, it is important to note that this scenario also increases the risk of overheating, potentially leading to a significant correction phase in late 2026.
Implications for Investment/Action: FRB implements significant interest rate cuts of 50bp or more, major pension funds announce BTC allocation, Japanese crypto asset separate taxation is legislated, reports of BRICS sovereign BTC demand
Bitcoin will remain around 7 million yen (approx. $45,000) by March 2026, failing to break 10 million yen. The pace of institutional investor entry will slow significantly. The biggest risk factor in this scenario is unexpected regulatory tightening. If the SEC introduces new crypto asset regulations and tightens ETF operating conditions, or if legal action against a major crypto asset exchange damages market confidence, institutional investors' risk aversion will rapidly intensify. A recurrence of a large-scale crypto asset company bankruptcy, such as the FTX collapse in 2022, would also have this effect. The second risk is a deterioration of the macroeconomic environment. If the FRB pauses interest rate cuts or shifts to rate hikes (e.g., due to re-accelerating inflation from geopolitical risks), all risk assets will face selling pressure. Bitcoin, in particular, has a high correlation with the stock market and could be sold off in conjunction with a significant stock market decline. The third risk is technical issues. If a serious security vulnerability is discovered in the Bitcoin network, or if advances in quantum computing are perceived as a threat to Bitcoin's cryptographic technology, market sentiment will rapidly deteriorate. As a fourth risk, the rise of competing digital assets or CBDCs could erode Bitcoin's relative advantage. Especially if China's digital yuan gains international adoption, the narrative of Bitcoin as an "alternative currency" would weaken. In this scenario, Bitcoin will not die, but the 10 million yen breakthrough in early 2026 will not materialize, being postponed until the next cycle.
Implications for Investment/Action: New regulatory measures by the SEC, bankruptcy of a major crypto asset company, FRB shifts to interest rate hikes, major security incident, risk-off due to geopolitical shock
Key Triggers to Watch
- FRB FOMC meeting decision on interest rate cut magnitude (25bp vs 50bp): March 18-19, 2026
- Inclusion of crypto asset separate taxation in Japan's 2026 tax reform outline: December 2025 (outline announcement) – March 2026 (parliamentary deliberation)
- GPIF's annual report hinting at changes in alternative investment policy: July 2026 (2025 fiscal year operation report)
- U.S. SEC's formulation of new crypto asset regulations: First half of 2026
- Reports of management instability at major crypto asset companies (including stablecoin issuers like Tether): Constant monitoring (especially during sharp BTC price drops)
🔄 Tracking Loop
Next Trigger: FRB FOMC March 18-19, 2026 — The decision on the magnitude of interest rate cuts will determine Bitcoin's short-term direction. A 50bp cut accelerates the Bull case, while a hold approaches the Bear case.
Continuation of this Pattern: Tracking Theme: Bitcoin's institutionalization process — Next milestones are Japan's 2025 tax reform outline in December, the FOMC in March 2026, and GPIF's annual report in July 2026
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