Hyperliquid Establishes Lobby Group in DC — DeFi

Hyperliquid, with an annual trading volume of $2.

Hyperliquid Establishes Lobby Group in DC — DeFi

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Hyperliquid, with 70% DEX market share, has established a lobbying group in Washington, funded by its own tokens. This marks the beginning of a structural shift where DeFi protocols transition from being 'regulated' to 'writing the rules,' aiming to legally protect their business models.

PATTERN: Regulatory Capture × Platform Power

BASE SCENARIO: Hyperliquid's lobbying efforts will likely postpone comprehensive regulation on DeFi derivatives, establishing partially favorable rules.

WATCH: [bottom_line_watch — Manual completion required]

Why it matters: Hyperliquid, with an annual trading volume of $2.95 trillion and a 70% market share in DEX perpetual futures, has established the "Hyperliquid Policy Center," a policy advocacy group, in Washington D.C. The operating funds consist of 1 million HYPE tokens (approximately $29M). Jake Chervinsky, former Head of Policy at the Blockchain Association, has been appointed CEO. This marks the first instance of a DeFi protocol itself establishing a lobbying organization funded by its own tokens. Amidst the ongoing deliberation of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Congress, whose provisions will determine the legality of DeFi as a whole, this is a structural move attempting to shift from being "regulated" to "writing the rules."

📝 SUMMARY: Hyperliquid, with an annual trading volume of $2.95 trillion and a 70% market share in DEX perpetual futures, has established the "Hyperliquid Policy Center," a policy advocacy group, in Washington D.C.

📝 SUMMARY: Hyperliquid, with an annual trading volume of $2.95 trillion and a 70% market share in DEX perpetual futures, has established the "Hyperliquid Policy Center," a policy advocacy group, in Washington D.C.

What Happened

  • February 19, 2026 — Hyperliquid established the "Hyperliquid Policy Center" in Washington D.C., a non-profit research and advocacy (policy recommendation) organization.
  • Operating Funds — 1 million HYPE tokens (approx. $29M = approx. 4.3 billion JPY at the time of announcement) were contributed.
  • CEO Appointment — Jake Chervinsky, Esq., former Head of Policy at the Blockchain Association and former Head of Legal at venture fund Variant.
  • Executive Team — Policy Counsel: Brad Burke, formerly of Sullivan & Cromwell; Policy Director: Sarah Gazzal, formerly of Variant.
  • Hyperliquid Achievements — A fully on-chain perpetual futures exchange on a Layer 1 blockchain. Cumulative trading volume of $2.95 trillion in 2025, approximately 70% DAU share in the DEX perpetual futures market.
  • HYPE Market Cap — Approx. $7.1B (16th largest in overall crypto assets). Currently down 49% from ATH of $59.37.
  • U.S. Congress — The CLARITY Act (stablecoin regulatory framework) is under deliberation. The "intermediary liability" clause could affect the legality of DeFi.
  • Industry-wide — Crypto industry lobbying expenditures exceeded $2.4B in 2024 (across the entire U.S. election cycle). A scale comparable to the pharmaceutical and oil industries.

Overall Picture

Historical Context

The political influence of the crypto industry has changed dramatically over the past five years.

Before 2020, crypto lobbying was almost non-existent. The industry grew by "avoiding" regulation. The turning point was the FTX collapse in 2022. Sam Bankman-Fried's political donation scandal destroyed industry trust but simultaneously instilled the realization across the industry that "survival is impossible without political engagement."

In 2024, the crypto industry, primarily through Fairshake PAC, made over $2.4B in political donations, contributing to the election of several crypto-friendly candidates. Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal led SEC litigation, and a16z's Chris Dixon published policy recommendations.

However, all previous lobbying efforts have been led by CeFi companies (Coinbase, Ripple) or VC funds (a16z Crypto). This is the first time a DeFi protocol itself has established a lobbying organization with its own tokens, positioning it as the first step in the "CeFi → DeFi" power shift in crypto political participation.

Another important context is the changing regulatory environment under the Trump administration. A shift away from the "regulation = litigation" approach of former SEC Chair Gensler is underway, with Coinbase and Kraken lawsuits being dropped, and a crypto-friendly regulatory environment beginning to form. However, a legislative framework does not yet exist. Hyperliquid's strategy is to write the rules during this "regulatory vacuum."

Stakeholder Map

ActorStated GoalTrue Intent✅ Gains❌ Losses
HyperliquidBuilding a sound regulatory environment for DeFiDesigning rules to protect 70% market share in perpetual futures DEXRegulatory framework favorable to DeFi derivativesRisk of HYPE price decline for $29M lobbying funds
Chervinsky, Esq.Establishing DeFi's legal statusStrengthening position as a leading crypto policy expertPosition as CEO of the industry's largest DeFi lobbying organizationReputational risk if regulation fails
U.S. Congress (Crypto-friendly)Balancing innovation promotion and consumer protectionSecuring political donations and support from the crypto industryLegislative achievement through the CLARITY ActPolitical accountability in case of incidents after regulation
Banking Industry (ABA, etc.)Maintaining existing financial regulationsPreventing loss of market share due to DeFi's riseIncreased regulatory burden on DeFi protocolsRisk of being defeated by the crypto industry's lobbying power
Coinbase / a16z (CeFi/VC)Development of the entire crypto industryMaintaining lobbying leadershipExpanding industry-wide influence through cooperation with DeFi lobbyingLobbying leadership shifting to DeFi protocols
SEC / RegulatorsMarket integrity and investor protectionMaintaining jurisdiction and authorityEstablishing clear regulatory authority through legislationRisk of falling outside jurisdiction due to DeFi-specific rules

Structure Seen in Data

  • $2.95 Trillion — Hyperliquid's cumulative trading volume in 2025
  • 70% — Hyperliquid's DAU share in the DEX perpetual futures market
  • $29M — Policy Center operating funds (1 million HYPE tokens)
  • $7.1B — HYPE token market cap (16th largest in overall crypto assets)
  • $2.4B+ — Crypto industry lobbying expenditures in 2024 (across the entire U.S. election cycle)
  • -49% — HYPE price decline from ATH ($59.37)

The delta: Superficially, this appears to be political activity by a DeFi project, but in essence, it's the emergence of a "structure where a token economy self-generates political influence." If the price of HYPE rises, lobbying funds increase, and if successful lobbying leads to DeFi-favorable regulations, the HYPE price will rise further—this feedback loop did not exist in traditional corporate lobbying.


Reading Between the Lines — What the Reports Aren't Saying

[between_the_lines — Manual completion required]

NOW PATTERN

[pattern_tag_text — Manual completion required]

Regulatory Capture × Platform Power

DeFi protocols are attempting to become the designers of regulation using their own tokens. Those who write the rules control the game.

Regulatory Capture: DeFi Shifts from "Regulated" to "Designing Regulation"

Regulatory Capture refers to the phenomenon where an industry exerts influence over regulators and legislatures to shape rules in its favor. Hyperliquid's move can be interpreted as the DeFi version of this dynamic.

This technology has the potential to become the foundation of the global financial system
— Jake Chervinsky, CEO, Hyperliquid Policy Center
Instead of existing regulatory frameworks predicated on centralized intermediaries, rules specific to decentralized systems are needed
— Chervinsky's policy advocacy stance

The contentious point of the CLARITY Act is "intermediary liability." Traditional financial regulations are predicated on centralized intermediaries like banks, brokerage firms, and exchanges managing and monitoring customer transactions. However, DeFi protocols may not have administrators. Hyperliquid's perpetual futures trading is automatically executed via smart contracts, leaving the fundamental question of "who is subject to regulation" unresolved.

Banking industry lobbying groups (such as the ABA) argue that "existing financial regulations should also apply to DeFi," but applying them would render many DeFi protocols inoperable. Hyperliquid's investment of $29M to establish a lobbying organization is aimed at guiding the design of this "intermediary liability" clause in a direction favorable to DeFi.

The $29M amount does not match the lobbying budgets of a16z or Coinbase. However, the legitimacy of "DeFi protocol's own token funds" becomes a differentiating factor. This represents a structural shift where the regulated entity itself, rather than an industry representative, directly lobbies.

Platform Power: 70% Market Share Demands the "Right to Write the Rules"

Given that Hyperliquid accounts for 70% of DAU in the perpetual futures DEX market, regulatory rules for DeFi derivatives directly impact Hyperliquid's business model. "Becoming a rule-maker" is synonymous with defending market share.

This is a critical time for policy discussions
— Hyperliquid Founder

Traditional crypto lobbying has been handled by "centralized players and VC funds" such as Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z Crypto. Coinbase CLO Paul Grewal led SEC litigation, a16z's Chris Dixon published policy recommendations, and Fairshake PAC raised election funds.

The establishment of the Hyperliquid Policy Center signifies the entry of "decentralized protocols themselves" into this lobbying structure. It is unprecedented for a DeFi protocol to establish a lobbying organization with its own tokens and invite the former head of the industry's largest lobbying group to be its CEO.

If this move succeeds, other DeFi protocols (such as Uniswap, Aave, dYdX) are likely to follow suit. As a result, a structural shift in the crypto industry's lobbying power from "CeFi companies and VCs" to "DeFi protocols themselves" could occur.

Intersection of Dynamics

Regulatory capture and platform power are inseparably linked in Hyperliquid's move.

The platform power of a 70% market share justifies entry into regulatory design. The logic that "it is irresponsible for the industry's largest player not to be involved in regulation" mirrors the historical structure of the banking industry's involvement in designing Basel regulations.

However, a crucial difference is the feedback loop: "token → lobbying funds → favorable regulation → token price increase." In traditional corporate lobbying, the benefits of successful lobbying were indirect (reflected in stock prices), but in a token economy, lobbying success is directly reflected in token prices. This structure makes the dynamics of regulatory capture more powerful than ever before.

A third dynamic, institutional decay, is also at play. During former SEC Chair Gensler's tenure, the "regulation = litigation" approach became entrenched, and administrative guidance became dysfunctional. Under the Trump administration, SEC lawsuits were dropped, creating a "regulatory vacuum." Hyperliquid is attempting to write the rules during this vacuum. Whether favorable rules can be established before this vacuum closes will determine the next decade for the entire DeFi industry.


History of the Pattern

2008: Basel III — The Structure Where the Banking Industry Designed Its Own Regulations

After the 2008 financial crisis, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision formulated Basel III regulations. However, lobbyists from major banks were deeply involved in the detailed design of these regulations, and numerous provisions favorable to banks were included in the calculation methods for capital adequacy ratios and the definition of liquidity requirements.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon asserted that "regulation is necessary, but involvement in its design is a natural right." As a result, Basel III functioned as "regulations protecting banks," ultimately strengthening the market share of major banks.

Structural similarity with the current case: Market dominators enter regulatory design and establish rules favorable to themselves. Hyperliquid's 70% share in perpetual futures DEX is structurally analogous to JPMorgan's dominance in the derivatives market.

2024: Fairshake PAC — The Year the Crypto Industry Bought an Election

In the 2024 U.S. election cycle, the crypto industry, primarily through Fairshake PAC, spent over $2.4B on lobbying, helping to elect several crypto-friendly candidates. Coinbase, Ripple, and a16z Crypto were major funding sources.

This election cycle is considered a turning point where "the crypto industry reached a critical mass of political influence." Lobbying on a scale comparable to the pharmaceutical and oil industries is no longer niche industry political activity.

Structural similarity with the current case: CeFi/VC-led lobbying succeeded in 2024. Hyperliquid's move is an attempt to transplant this successful model to "DeFi protocols themselves."

Pattern Shown by History

The pattern shown by history is clear: "When market dominators enter regulatory design, regulation acts to strengthen the dominator's position."

Basel III protected major banks, and Fairshake PAC established the political standing of the entire crypto industry. If Hyperliquid's move follows this pattern, the CLARITY Act will be designed to recognize the autonomy of DeFi protocols, and Hyperliquid's 70% market share will be institutionally protected by regulation.

However, there are also risks. Basel III failed to solve the "Too Big to Fail" problem, and regulatory capture created a structure that preserved systemic risk. If the same happens with DeFi, a new problem of "Too Decentralized to Regulate" could emerge.


Future Outlook

Base — DeFi-Specific Rules Partially Established (Probability: 50-60%)

The stablecoin provisions of the CLARITY Act will pass, but regulation of DeFi derivatives will be postponed to a separate bill. Due to lobbying by the Hyperliquid Policy Center, the interpretation that "fully on-chain DEXs are exempt from traditional exchange regulations" will gain some support in Congress. However, comprehensive DeFi legislation will be deferred until 2027 or later.

Investment/Action Implications: HYPE token has potential for 10-20% increase due to resolution of regulatory uncertainty. DeFi-related tokens (UNI, AAVE, DYDX) will also benefit in correlation.

The Trump administration's crypto-friendly stance and Chervinsky's congressional efforts succeed, leading to the inclusion of provisions recognizing DeFi protocol autonomy in the CLARITY Act. Other DeFi protocols (Uniswap, Aave) also follow suit by establishing lobbying organizations, reaching a critical mass for DeFi lobbying.

Investment/Action Implications: The entire DeFi sector rises by 30-50%. HYPE has potential to reach new ATH. CeFi tokens (COIN) also benefit, but with smaller gains than DeFi.

Pessimistic — Banking Industry Lobby Wins and Applies Existing Regulations (Probability: 20-30%)

Banking industry lobbying (ABA, etc.) persuades Congress, and "intermediary liability" is imposed on DeFi protocols. Hyperliquid is forced to restrict its services in the U.S. or relocate offshore. The $29M lobbying investment fails, impacting HYPE token price.

Investment/Action Implications: HYPE faces 30-50% downside risk. Selling pressure on the entire DeFi sector. Offshore DEXs (KuCoin, etc.) and privacy crypto assets (XMR) relatively benefit.

Notable Triggers

  • Timing of CLARITY Act's Senate passage: Will amendments to stablecoin provisions affect DeFi provisions? Q2-Q3 2026 is the peak.
  • Follow-up by other DeFi protocols: If Uniswap, Aave, dYdX establish lobbying organizations, DeFi lobbying will reach critical mass.
  • Chervinsky's Congressional testimony: How far will his network as former head of the Blockchain Association function?
  • Correlation between HYPE token price and lobbying budget: Down 49% from ATH. Further decline risks shrinking the lobbying budget.

Tracking Points

Next Trigger: [open_loop_trigger — Manual completion required]

Continuation of this pattern: [open_loop_series — Manual completion required]

Related patterns: The Structure Where AI Agents Started "Shopping"

Sources:

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❌ Prediction Result
MISS
[AI Automated Judgment] As stated in the prediction article's title, Hyperliquid established the "Hyperliquid Policy Center" in Washington D.C. on February 18, 2026. This establishment of a lobbying organization clearly demonstrates the predicted major shift of DeFi from "being regulated" to "writing the rules." In particular, the fact that this establishment occurred significantly earlier than the attention trigger set for December 31, 2026, serves as a basis for judging that the prediction is progressing in an optimistic direction.
Judgment Date: 2026-12-31

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