Bitcoin Predicted to Surpass ¥15 Million
With the full-scale entry of institutional investors, including Goldman Sachs, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a structural transformation from a speculative market driven by individual investors to an asset class led by institutions. This shift fundamentally alters the price formation mechanism of the entire crypto asset market and will have an irreversible impact on the positions of Japanese individual investors.
── Understand in 3 points ─────────
- • A prediction is spreading among market participants that Bitcoin will break ¥15 million (over approximately $100,000) per BTC by early 2026.
- • Goldman Sachs is expanding its crypto asset-related investment positions, accelerating the entry of institutional investors.
- • Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024, tens of billions of dollars have flowed in cumulatively, with the pace of inflows accelerating through 2025-2026.
── NOW PATTERN ─────────
The success of Bitcoin ETFs is accelerating institutional capital inflows, with "winner-takes-all" dynamics increasingly dominating the entire crypto asset market. Simultaneously, a "chain of contagion" driven by FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is drawing in individual investors, inducing "moral hazard"-like excessive risk-taking.
── Probability and Response ──────
• Base case 50% — Weekly net inflows into ETFs remain stable around $1 billion, the FRB implements gradual interest rate cuts, Japan's tax reform is under continuous deliberation in the Diet, Bitcoin dominance stabilizes at 55-60%.
• Bull case 25% — FRB interest rate cuts exceed market expectations, progress on the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bill, realization of separate taxation in Japan, weekly net inflows into ETFs accelerate to over $2 billion, announcement of large-scale BTC purchases by major corporations other than MicroStrategy.
• Bear case 25% — FRB postpones interest rate cuts or signals hikes, new regulatory tightening measures by the SEC, large-scale hacking or security incident, continuous weekly net outflows from ETFs, rapid appreciation of the yen to the ¥130s against the dollar.
📡 THE SIGNAL — What Happened
Why it matters: With the full-scale entry of institutional investors, including Goldman Sachs, the Bitcoin market is undergoing a structural transformation from a speculative market driven by individual investors to an asset class led by institutions. This shift fundamentally alters the price formation mechanism of the entire crypto asset market and will have an irreversible impact on the positions of Japanese individual investors.
- Price Trends — A prediction is spreading among market participants that Bitcoin will break ¥15 million (over approximately $100,000) per BTC by early 2026.
- Institutional Investors — Goldman Sachs is expanding its crypto asset-related investment positions, accelerating the entry of institutional investors.
- ETF Trends — Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024, tens of billions of dollars have flowed in cumulatively, with the pace of inflows accelerating through 2025-2026.
- Japanese Market — FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is spreading among Japanese individual investors, leading to a surge in Bitcoin-related posts on social media (especially X).
- Halving — Bitcoin's fourth halving, implemented in April 2024, has increased scarcity on the supply side, becoming a structural factor for price appreciation.
- Regulatory Environment — The US SEC's approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs has significantly reduced regulatory uncertainty and lowered barriers to entry for institutional investors.
- Macro Environment — Expectations for an FRB interest rate cutting cycle are providing a tailwind for risk assets in general, leading to capital inflows into Bitcoin.
- Sovereign Funds — Sovereign funds, such as the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) and the Government Pension Fund of Norway, are increasing their indirect exposure to Bitcoin-related assets.
- Corporate Finance — Following MicroStrategy (now Strategy), publicly traded companies like Tesla and Block continue to hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
- Japanese Regulation — Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) is considering crypto asset tax reform, and if a shift to separate taxation is realized, it could further accelerate the entry of domestic investors.
- Hash Rate — Bitcoin's network hash rate continues to hit new all-time highs, improving network security and reliability.
- Derivatives Market — Open Interest (OI) in CME's Bitcoin futures and options market has reached record levels, indicating increased institutional participation.
To understand this phase where Bitcoin is eyeing a break above ¥15 million, it is necessary to survey the 15-year structural evolution of the crypto asset market.
When Satoshi Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin to the world in 2009, it was merely an experimental project as an antithesis to the central banking system. For the first decade, Bitcoin was a "toy" valued within communities of tech enthusiasts and libertarians, completely ignored by mainstream financial institutions. Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan calling Bitcoin a "fraud" in 2017 symbolized the consensus on Wall Street at the time.
However, the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 became a turning point. Unprecedented monetary easing by central banks worldwide spread concerns about the declining purchasing power of fiat currencies, accelerating the re-evaluation of Bitcoin as "digital gold." Paul Tudor Jones' public announcement of his investment in Bitcoin in May 2020, and Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy integrating Bitcoin into corporate finance, heralded the entry of institutional investors.
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US in January 2024 was a decisive moment in this structural transformation. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) achieved $10 billion in AUM (Assets Under Management) at the fastest pace in history, rewriting the history of the ETF market. This made it possible for institutional investors, such as pension funds, insurance companies, and family offices, who previously could not directly access crypto asset exchanges, to gain exposure to Bitcoin through existing brokerage accounts.
The halving in April 2024 is also a significant structural factor. The halving, embedded in Bitcoin's protocol approximately every four years, reduces new supply by half. All three previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) resulted in significant price increases 12-18 months later, and the cycle after the 2024 halving falls precisely within 2025-2026. This is not a coincidence but a programmed mechanism where supply shock and demand increase occur simultaneously.
Goldman Sachs' entry, viewed in this context, is an inevitable outcome. The firm reopened its crypto asset trading desk in 2021, expanded its digital asset platform in 2023, and significantly increased its positions through Bitcoin ETFs throughout 2024-2025. This is not merely following a temporary trend but a strategic business development to meet client demand. Other major players like Morgan Stanley, Fidelity, and Citadel are showing similar movements.
In the Japanese market, the trauma of the 2017 bubble and the 2018 Coincheck incident had long cast a shadow. However, from 2024-2025, domestic exchanges such as Bitbank, Coincheck (under Monex), and bitFlyer expanded their services for institutional investors, and SBI Group expanded its Ripple-related businesses, indicating that Japan's crypto asset ecosystem is maturing. The FSA's consideration of tax reform is also part of a movement to redefine crypto assets from "objects of speculation" to "legitimate asset classes."
The macroeconomic environment is also providing a tailwind. As US inflation remains high, expectations for FRB interest rate cuts are rising, and a decline in real interest rates is positive for risk assets in general. Simultaneously, the expanding US fiscal deficit and debt ceiling issues are intensifying concerns about the dollar's long-term purchasing power, reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as an "inflation hedge." Geopolitically, the BRICS nations' move away from the dollar and national-level Bitcoin adoption following El Salvador (e.g., partial adoption in Bhutan, Argentina) are also enhancing Bitcoin's global legitimacy.
These complex factors support the prediction of Bitcoin breaking ¥15 million by early 2026. The key is that this is not merely a price forecast but a manifestation of a structural transformation where the crypto asset market is irreversibly shifting from a "speculative playground for individual investors" to a "global asset class with institutional participation."
The delta: The Bitcoin market's price formation mechanism has structurally shifted from "speculative trading by individual investors" to "asset allocation by institutional investors." While the inflow of institutional funds through ETFs may mitigate traditional bubble-and-bust cycles and create a more stable upward trend, it also carries the risk of increasing correlation with traditional financial markets, thereby eroding crypto assets' inherent value as "uncorrelated assets."
🔍 BETWEEN THE LINES — What the News Isn't Saying
Behind the "institutional entry into Bitcoin" lies the "prolongation of the fee business" amidst a structural decline in returns from traditional financial products (bonds, stocks). For BlackRock and Goldman, Bitcoin ETFs are a revenue stream that generates new management fees by directing client assets into crypto assets, not an endorsement of Bitcoin's ideological value. Japan's Financial Services Agency continues to "consider" tax reform because maintaining the "under consideration" status makes it easier to elicit cooperation and information from the crypto asset industry than actually implementing reforms. The most overlooked structural risk is that the success of ETFs is integrating Bitcoin into the traditional financial system, thereby hollowing out its original raison d'être of "independence from centralization."
NOW PATTERN
Winner-Takes-All × Chain of Contagion × Moral Hazard
The success of Bitcoin ETFs is accelerating institutional capital inflows, with "winner-takes-all" dynamics increasingly dominating the entire crypto asset market. Simultaneously, a "chain of contagion" driven by FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is drawing in individual investors, inducing "moral hazard"-like excessive risk-taking.
Intersection of Dynamics
The three dynamics of "winner-takes-all," "chain of contagion," and "moral hazard" form a dangerous positive feedback loop that mutually reinforces each other.
First, the "winner-takes-all" structure promotes capital concentration in Bitcoin, accelerating price appreciation. This price appreciation then spreads through a "chain of contagion" from institutional investors to individual investors, from the US to Japan, and from Bitcoin to altcoins. As the contagion spreads, new participants tend to have a lower ability to correctly assess risk than early adopters, and this is where "moral hazard" becomes apparent—the existence of ETFs, the entry of institutional investors, and a history of price increases create an "illusion of safety," inducing excessive risk-taking.
The intersection of these three dynamics is the FOMO-driven entry of Japanese individual investors. They are at the tail end of the "winner-takes-all" structure, the ultimate beneficiaries (or ultimate victims) of the "chain of contagion," and the most vulnerable bearers of "moral hazard." Influenced by hype and optimistic price predictions on social media, an increasing number of individuals are entering the market without sufficient knowledge or experience.
Even more dangerous are the cascading effects if these three dynamics reverse. If Bitcoin prices plummet due to some shock, concentrated funds under the "winner-takes-all" structure will flow out en masse, the "chain of contagion" will act in reverse, plunging the entire market into panic selling, and investors who took excessive risks due to "moral hazard" will suffer the greatest losses. The market collapse after the FTX bankruptcy in 2022 was a classic example of this reverse pattern.
The lesson for current market participants is to recognize the symmetry that these dynamics amplify each other during uptrends but function similarly during downtrends. While structural tailwinds (halving cycles, ETF fund inflows, institutional entry) are real, they do not guarantee a perpetual one-way ascent.
📚 PATTERN HISTORY
2017: Bitcoin Bubble and Japan's "Okuribito" Boom
FOMO-driven entry by individual investors caused prices to diverge from fundamentals, followed by a sharp decline. In Japan, the Coincheck incident (January 2018) exacerbated the situation, leading to a market decline of over 80%.
Structural similarities to today: FOMO-driven bull markets have a structural trap where new entrants become most optimistic precisely when they bear the highest risk. The peak signal often occurs when the narrative of "this time is different" reaches its climax.
2000: Dot-com Bubble and Institutional Entry
Institutional entry into internet-related companies reinforced the myth that "technology will rise forever," causing valuations to significantly diverge from fundamentals. The Nasdaq fell 78% from its peak in March 2000.
Structural similarities to today: Institutional entry itself does not imply an improvement in fundamentals. Institutional investors also participate in bubbles and withdraw faster than individual investors when the bubble bursts. Interpreting their entry as a "guarantee of safety" is dangerous.
2020-2021: Post-COVID Monetary Easing and Bitcoin Institutionalization
The FRB's massive monetary easing boosted risk assets across the board, pushing Bitcoin above $60,000. The entry of MicroStrategy and Tesla heralded the "era of institutional investors," but in 2022, monetary tightening led to a decline of over 50%.
Structural similarities to today: The macro environment (monetary policy) is the biggest external determinant of Bitcoin's price, and narratives like "digital gold" or "inflation hedge" function during easing cycles but easily collapse during tightening cycles.
Late 1980s: Japan's Bubble Economy and the NTT Stock Boom
The 1987 listing of NTT shares created the myth of "no selling against national policy," leading to a massive influx of amateur investors. The Nikkei Average hit an all-time high of ¥38,915 before entering a long-term stagnation.
Structural similarities to today: The cognitive bias of "government or major players promoting it = safe" accelerates both the formation and collapse of bubbles. It is necessary to calmly assess whether the current "institutional endorsement" from Bitcoin ETF approvals is creating a similar bias.
2013: Cyprus Financial Crisis and Bitcoin's "Safe-Haven Asset" Status
Triggered by the Cypriot bank deposit tax, Bitcoin gained attention as an "asset beyond government reach," and its price surged. However, the subsequent collapse of Mt. Gox dealt a devastating blow to the market.
Structural similarities to today: The narrative of Bitcoin's "independence from institutions" is conveniently told according to the circumstances of the time. Currently, the narrative of "a legitimate asset with institutional participation" is dominant, but a shift in narrative can occur rapidly.
Patterns Revealed by History
The common pattern across the five past examples is clear. A new investment theme emerges, and initial success generates optimism that "this time is different." The entry of institutional and systemic players reinforces the illusion of "safety," and FOMO-driven entry by individual investors accelerates in the final stage. However, external shocks (monetary policy shifts, security incidents, regulatory tightening) act as catalysts, transforming optimism into pessimism overnight.
The important lesson is the need to distinguish between structural evolution (ETF approval, institutional entry, network maturity) and speculative overheating (FOMO-driven buying at highs, excessive use of leverage). The structural maturity of the Bitcoin market is real and can serve as a foundation for long-term price appreciation. However, short-term price fluctuations are still heavily influenced by speculative sentiment.
History teaches the importance of asking oneself "why am I buying now?" rather than "what am I buying?" Entry driven by FOMO is the biggest factor that leads to errors in timing and risk management, regardless of how excellent the asset may be.
🔮 WHAT'S NEXT
Bitcoin will trade in a range of ¥13 million to ¥16 million per BTC by the end of March 2026, fluctuating around ¥15 million. Gradual capital inflows through institutional ETFs will continue, but the pace will be somewhat slower compared to the explosive inflow period of 2025. The FRB will implement one to two interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026, but these will not be as aggressive as market expectations, providing only limited tailwinds for risk assets in general. In the Japanese market, individual investor participation will continue but will not reach the explosive boom seen in 2017. The FSA's tax reform will remain "under consideration," and the realization of separate taxation within 2026 will be postponed. As a result, some Japanese individual investors will face high tax rates when realizing profits, putting a brake on their willingness to enter the market. In this scenario, Bitcoin's status as "digital gold" will gradually be established, but dramatic price increases will not occur. The effect of halving cycles will gradually wane, and the prevailing view will be that the same multiples as in past cycles cannot be expected with market maturity. Volatility will decrease compared to past cycles, with annual price fluctuations settling around 30-50%.
Implications for Investment/Action: Weekly net inflows into ETFs remain stable around $1 billion, the FRB implements gradual interest rate cuts, Japan's tax reform is under continuous deliberation in the Diet, Bitcoin dominance stabilizes at 55-60%.
Bitcoin will reach ¥18 million to ¥20 million (approximately $120,000-$130,000) per BTC by the end of March 2026. There are multiple catalysts for this scenario. First, the FRB implements more aggressive interest rate cuts than expected (three or more), and a significant increase in liquidity boosts risk assets across the board. Second, the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is approved by Congress, making national-level Bitcoin holdings a reality. This would trigger FOMO in other governments, initiating a "sovereign Bitcoin race." Third, Japan's Financial Services Agency realizes separate taxation (20%) for crypto assets in the 2026 tax reform, leading to an explosive increase in Japanese individual investor participation. Even the possibility of including crypto assets in tax-exempt frameworks like NISA is discussed. Fourth, the adoption of Bitcoin's Lightning Network accelerates, improving its utility as a payment method, thereby strengthening its narrative not only as a "store of value" but also as a "medium of exchange." In this scenario, an explosive rise similar to 2021 is replicated, but this time with an institutional foundation, potentially leading to a more sustainable upward trend. However, rapid price increases are also a sign of a bubble, and the risk of subsequent corrections increases.
Implications for Investment/Action: FRB interest rate cuts exceed market expectations, progress on the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bill, realization of separate taxation in Japan, weekly net inflows into ETFs accelerate to over $2 billion, announcement of large-scale BTC purchases by major corporations other than MicroStrategy.
Bitcoin adjusts to ¥9 million to ¥11 million (approximately $60,000-$70,000) per BTC by the end of March 2026. The triggers for this scenario are as follows. First, the FRB postpones interest rate cuts or shifts to rate hikes due to a resurgence of inflation. This leads to a sell-off across all risk assets, and Bitcoin is no exception. It would be a repeat of 2022. Second, the US SEC significantly tightens crypto asset regulations. For example, stricter KYC/AML regulations for DeFi protocols, classification of staking as a security, or additional regulatory burdens on crypto asset exchanges could occur. This would lead to market contraction and reduced liquidity. Third, a large-scale security incident occurs—for instance, a hack on Coinbase, a custodian for Bitcoin ETFs, or the materialization of threats to cryptographic technology due to advances in quantum computing. Fourth, a rapid escalation of geopolitical risks (e.g., Taiwan Strait crisis, expansion of Middle East conflicts) triggers a global risk-off sentiment, leading to Bitcoin being sold as a "risk asset." Bitcoin's "safe-haven asset" narrative has been proven to be largely ineffective during actual crises (e.g., the March 2020 COVID shock). In the Japanese market, yen appreciation (return to the ¥130s against the dollar) would further depress Bitcoin's yen-denominated price, resulting in a double blow of exchange rate losses and crypto asset price declines. Individual investors who entered due to FOMO would incur unrealized losses, negative posts would spread on social media, and new entries would completely halt, leading to a vicious cycle.
Implications for Investment/Action: FRB postpones interest rate cuts or signals hikes, new regulatory tightening measures by the SEC, large-scale hacking or security incident, continuous weekly net outflows from ETFs, rapid appreciation of the yen to the ¥130s against the dollar.
Key Triggers to Watch
- FRB Monetary Policy Decisions (FOMC Meetings): FOMC on March 18-19, 2026, and meetings in May and June. The presence and pace of interest rate cuts are the biggest external factors for Bitcoin's price.
- Progress of Japan's Crypto Asset Tax Reform: Deliberation in the Diet on the 2026 Tax Reform Outline (announced in December 2025). Feasibility of legislation will be determined during the ordinary Diet session from March to June 2026.
- Developments in the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill: First half of 2026. A key point to watch is whether Senator Cynthia Lummis's bill passes committee.
- Bitcoin ETF Fund Flow Trends: Continuous monitoring on a weekly basis. Especially, net outflows continuing for more than three weeks would signal a trend reversal.
- Macroeconomic Indicators (US CPI, Employment Statistics): Announced monthly. Signs of inflation resurgence would lead to the FRB postponing interest rate cuts, negatively impacting Bitcoin.
🔄 TRACKING LOOP
Next Trigger: FRB FOMC March 18-19, 2026 — The decision on interest rate cuts is the most crucial event influencing Bitcoin's ¥15 million breakthrough scenario.
Continuation of this Pattern: Tracking Theme: Bitcoin Institutional Entry Cycle — The next milestone is May 15, 2026, when institutional investor position changes will be revealed in the Q2 2026 ETF quarterly reports (13F).
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