Bitwise CEO: "The Crypto 4-Year Cycle Is Over" — Entering the Institutional Investor Era
⚡ What Happened
The Bitwise CEO claimed that the traditional 4-year cycle (halving cycle) in the cryptocurrency market has ended. He analyzed that the full-scale entry of institutional investors and MicroStrategy's financial product "Strife" are fundamentally changing the market structure, and that Bitcoin has entered a new phase where it is being re-evaluated as a fixed-yield asset and payment instrument. If this view is correct, the traditional "post-halving crash" pattern is a thing of the past.
The Bitcoin market has historically exhibited a cyclical pattern of sharp rallies and crashes centered around halvings occurring approximately every four years. Even after the 2024 halving, prices have maintained an upward trend, and divergence from the traditional cycle has been noted. There are three structural changes behind this. First, since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, institutional money has been flowing in continuously, diluting the speculative cycles driven by retail investors. Second, MicroStrategy's convertible bond-type product "Strife" has enabled fixed-yield products backed by Bitcoin to begin penetrating traditional financial markets. Third, improvements in payment infrastructure have expanded real demand for Bitcoin. Bitwise is one of the largest crypto asset management firms by AUM, and its CEO's statements carry weight as a signal of the industry's direction. However, the fact that as an asset management company they have an incentive to present bullish outlooks should be discounted.
🔍 Bitwise has a clear conflict of interest in promoting its own ETF products. "The end of the 4-year cycle" functions as a narrative to give institutional investors the reassurance that "crashes won't happen anymore" and attract long-term capital. The essential question is whether structural changes have truly eliminated the cycle, or merely extended and transformed it. Even in traditional financial markets, cycles have not disappeared in products where ETF adoption has progressed (gold, oil). MicroStrategy's "Strife" is a leveraged product that inherently carries the risk of amplifying volatility during downturns.
📰 Source: CoinPost
🧭 Why This Is Moving Now
entities=bitcoin / domain=crypto
🔮 Next Scenarios
🎯 Incentive Map
| Player | True Incentive | Deep Vulnerability | Predicted Behavior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitwise (incl. CEO) | Maximizing capital inflows into their own ETFs and managed products. The end-of-4-year-cycle thesis is a marketing narrative that alleviates institutional investor anxiety and encourages long-term investment | Obsession with AUM (assets under management). A structural dependency where their business model fails unless the market continues to grow | Continue broadcasting bullish outlooks, increase media exposure to encourage institutional participation. Tendency to downplay bearish signals |
| MicroStrategy (Saylor) | Maintaining/increasing stock price through BTC price appreciation. Need to continuously justify BTC purchases made with funds raised through "Strife" and other financial products | Dependence on leverage and loss aversion. BTC price decline directly threatens corporate survival, making it impossible to stop the bullish narrative | Develop new financial products to continue BTC purchases. Support the end-of-4-year-cycle thesis to justify their position |
| Institutional Investors (Pensions, Hedge Funds, etc.) | Portfolio diversification and alpha generation. Crypto allocation is approximately 1-5% of total portfolio, limiting downside risk | Herd mentality and benchmark consciousness. Compelled to follow if competitors profit from crypto, but will immediately withdraw when losses occur — a lack of loyalty | Gradually increase allocation during bull markets, but unhesitatingly reduce positions when a 15-20% correction occurs. Whether the 4-year cycle exists is a secondary consideration |
⚠️ Pre-Mortem — Conditions Under Which This Prediction Fails
- A macroeconomic shock occurs (US debt ceiling crisis, emergency Fed rate hike, etc.) causing a broad selloff in risk assets. Institutional investors also sell crypto in a risk-off move
- MicroStrategy's leveraged positions face liquidation pressure, triggering cascading sells. Structural changes end up amplifying systemic risk instead
- Underestimating the possibility that even within the short 2-week timeframe, geopolitical events (Taiwan Strait, Middle East, etc.) could shift rapidly and crypto markets overreact
Fear-Setting / When this prediction fails
- This probability fails if a major macro shock (e.g., US debt ceiling crisis or emergency Fed rate hike) triggers a broad risk-off selloff exceeding 15% in BTC within 2 weeks.
- This probability fa