Broad Dollar Selloff Reignites "Triple Decline," Bitcoin's Position as a Safe Haven
⚡ What Happened
President Trump intensified pressure to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, reigniting the "triple decline" — a simultaneous selloff in U.S. stocks, Treasuries, and the dollar — on April 21. As confidence in central bank independence wavers, the credibility of the U.S. dollar is being called into question, and Bitcoin is entering a phase where it attracts attention as an alternative asset. Going forward, Powell's tenure and the Fed's policy response will determine the direction of markets.
The U.S. "triple decline" is a phenomenon typically seen in emerging markets, and its occurrence in the reserve currency nation is an extraordinary signal in itself. Historically, similar movements were observed at turning points for the dollar system, such as the Nixon Shock (1971) and the Plaza Accord (1985). This time, the backdrop is President Trump's open pressure to dismiss the Fed Chair, shaking the very foundation of the postwar financial order — central bank independence. Bitcoin is in a phase where the narrative of a "non-sovereign store of value" is being reinforced, but as past MISS analyses show, institutional investors still tend to sell BTC during risk-off episodes. The critical question is whether this is temporary political noise or the beginning of a structural shift away from the dollar-centric system.
🔍 Trump's real aim is to stimulate the economy through rate cuts and lay the groundwork for the 2026 midterm elections — dismissing Powell is not the goal itself. However, markets are beginning to price in the cost of that "threat." The essential point that reporting has missed is the possibility that the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries — foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds — are quietly reducing their dollar asset weightings. The fact that Bitcoin's rise is synchronized with the "Sell America" trade suggests that crypto assets are no longer merely speculative instruments but are being incorporated as part of macro hedging strategies.
📰 Source: CRYPTO TIMES
🧭 Why This Is Moving Now
entities=trump,bitcoin,fed / domain=crypto
🔮 Scenarios Ahead
🎯 Incentive Map
| Player | True Incentive | Underlying Vulnerability | Predicted Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| President Trump | Economic stimulus ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Wants to support manufacturing and exports through a stock rally and weaker dollar via rate cuts | Obsession with approval ratings and a "winner" image. Tendency to equate market reactions with personal performance metrics | Continues verbal attacks on Powell but refrains from actual dismissal due to legal risks and fear of market chaos. Shifts instead toward exerting influence through the next Fed Chair appointment |
| Fed Chair Powell | Preserving central bank independence and his own legacy. Balancing inflation control with financial stability | Strong awareness of historical legacy. His greatest fear is being labeled "the chair who caved to politics" | Maintains a stance of not publicly yielding to political pressure. Implements rate cuts only when justified by economic data and remains in office through the end of his term |
| Institutional Investors & Foreign Central Banks | Ensuring portfolio safety. Diversifying away from concentrated dollar asset risk | Loss aversion bias and herd behavior. Fear of "selling too late" can trigger abrupt capital movements | Gradually diversify into gold, euros, and yen. Bitcoin allocation remains limited to select forward-thinking funds, but the trend is toward expansion |
⚠️ Pre-Mortem — Conditions Under Which This Prediction Fails
- A scenario where Trump asserts the authority to dismiss the Fed Chair through legal means (such as an executive order) and the courts do not issue an injunction, resulting in a de facto removal. Probability is difficult to estimate given the lack of historical precedent.
- The possibility that Powell himself, unable to withstand political pressure, chooses to "voluntarily resign" under the pretext of market stability. This is unlikely given his personality, but unpredictable factors such as health issues cannot be ruled out.
- The possibility that my assumption — "Fed independence will be preserved" — underestimates the Trump administration's capacity for institutional disruption. The 52% hit rate on past entity data for Trump illustrates the difficulty of predicting his actions.
HIT condition: If Fed Chair Powell resigns, is dismissed, or is suspended from duties by June 30, 2026, the prediction is marked HIT
Resolution date: 2026-06-30
