Exclusive Interview with Fireblocks CEO: Rapid Growth in the Japanese Market and the Future of AI Payments
⚡ What Happened
The Fireblocks CEO emphasized the importance of MPC technology as a lesson from the approximately $1.5 billion Bybit hack, and analyzed that the Japanese market has experienced rapid growth over the past two years due to regulatory development and institutional investor participation. Anticipating an era where AI agents autonomously settle transactions using crypto assets, he predicted expanding demand for institutional-grade security infrastructure.
The Bybit incident was one of the largest hacks in crypto-asset industry history, exposing a new attack vector involving UI tampering of multi-sig wallets. The MPC (Multi-Party Computation) technology provided by Fireblocks distributes private key storage and eliminates single points of failure by design, claiming resilience against this type of attack. Regarding the Japanese market, since the enforcement of the revised Payment Services Act in 2023, major financial institutions such as SBI and Nomura have entered crypto-asset custody, making it one of the most important markets for infrastructure companies like Fireblocks. AI agent payments entered an experimental phase in late 2025, with crypto-asset usage in micropayments and inter-API settlements becoming increasingly realistic. This can be read as a turning point where the axis of traditional custody competition is shifting from "security of storage" to "integration with AI."
🔍 Behind Fireblocks CEO's statements emphasizing Japan lies regulatory uncertainty and intensifying competition in the U.S. market. As competition with Copper and BitGo intensifies, Japan—with its clear regulations and strong institutional investor appetite—offers significant room for growth. The strategy of leveraging the Bybit incident to promote its own technological advantages is clear, but MPC technology is not infallible, and risks from operational processes and human factors remain. The mention of AI payments is a strategic move toward the next revenue source in anticipation of slowing growth in the existing custody business, and is at the narrative-building stage rather than actual demand.
📰 Source: CoinPost
🧭 Why This Is Moving Now
entities=japan / domain=crypto
🔮 Next Scenarios
🎯 Incentive Map
| Player | True Incentive | Underlying Weakness | Predicted Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fireblocks (CEO Michael Shaulov) | Leveraging the Japanese market to maintain valuation and lay the groundwork for the next fundraising round | Dependence on a growth narrative to continue justifying a high valuation ($8 billion) | Increasing media exposure in Japan and accelerating trust-building with institutional investors. However, tends to push narratives ahead of actual contract signings |
| Major Japanese financial institutions (SBI, Nomura, etc.) | Eager to monetize crypto-asset operations while minimizing regulatory risk | Slow decision-making and organizational tendency to avoid accountability in case of failure | Will consider partnerships with proven overseas vendors like Fireblocks, but internal approval processes will take several months |
| FSA (Japan's Financial Regulator) | Balancing regulatory easing for international competitiveness with investor protection | Caught between security concerns post-Bybit incident and promoting innovation | Will proceed with gradual development of custody regulations but maintain a cautious approach, avoiding drastic changes |
⚠️ Pre-Mortem — Conditions Under Which This Prediction Fails
- The CEO interview is likely for marketing purposes and may not directly lead to a concrete contract announcement (underestimation of lead time)
- Japanese financial institutions have slow decision-making processes, and an official announcement within two weeks is structurally inconsistent with institutional approval processes
- Risk that an overall crypto market downturn or new security incident could push announcement timing back
Fear-Setting / When this prediction fails
- This probability fails if Fireblocks has already signed a Japanese partner and the interview itself serves as a pre-announcement warm-up, with formal disclosure within days.
- This probability fails if a competing custody provider announces a major Japanese deal, pressuring Fireblocks to accelerate its own announcement.
- This probability fails if Japanese regulatory changes (e.g., stablecoin framework update) create an urgent catalyst for immediate partnership disclosure.
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