Strait of Hormuz Crisis — US-Iran
The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil shipments pass, is on the brink of closure. A 48-hour ultimatum marks a historic turning point that could trigger a cascading crisis in energy markets, Middle East security, and the global economy.
── Understand in 3 points ─────────
- • President Trump warned Iran that if it did not open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, he would attack Iranian power plants.
- • Iran stated that if attacked, it would retaliate against power plants across the Middle East that supply electricity to US military bases.
- • Iran has not softened its hardline stance, and tensions between the US and Iran are escalating further.
── NOW PATTERN ─────────
The US-Iran "spiral of conflict" has reached the stage of a military ultimatum, creating the risk that a chain of retaliation could "contagiously" spread into an infrastructure war across the entire Persian Gulf. The inability of both sides to back down is accelerating "power overextension."
── Probabilities and Responses ──────
• Base case 50% — Whether US military attacks remain "limited," Iranian retaliation is contained to a symbolic level, or signs of clandestine diplomatic channels emerge (e.g., movements of the Omani Foreign Minister or Qatari Emir).
• Bull case 20% — Softening statements from Iran before the deadline, emergency diplomatic visits by Omani and Qatari leaders, active mediation efforts by China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or leaks from the US Department of Defense prioritizing a "diplomatic solution."
• Bear case 30% — Commencement of large-scale US airstrikes, Iran's laying of mines in the Strait of Hormuz, infrastructure attacks in multiple Gulf states, a crude oil price surge of over $20 per day, or simultaneous attacks by Hezbollah and the Houthis.
📡 Signal — What Happened
Why it matters: The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's oil shipments pass, is on the brink of closure. A 48-hour ultimatum marks a historic turning point that could trigger a cascading crisis in energy markets, Middle East security, and the global economy.
- Military-Diplomacy — President Trump warned Iran that if it did not open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, he would attack Iranian power plants.
- Military-Diplomacy — Iran stated that if attacked, it would retaliate against power plants across the Middle East that supply electricity to US military bases.
- Military-Diplomacy — Iran has not softened its hardline stance, and tensions between the US and Iran are escalating further.
- Energy — The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical choke point, through which approximately 20-21% of the world's seaborne oil shipments pass.
- Energy — Approximately 17-21 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Economy — If the Strait closure materializes, crude oil prices could surge to over $150 per barrel.
- Regional Security — US military bases across the Middle East (e.g., Qatar, Bahrain, UAE) rely on the host countries' infrastructure for electricity supply.
- Diplomacy — Iran's retaliation targets include the infrastructure of Gulf states, which are supposed allies, raising the risk of region-wide collateral damage.
- Military — The US Fifth Fleet is headquartered in Bahrain and is reportedly deploying a carrier strike group in the Persian Gulf.
- International — Japan relies on the Middle East for approximately 90% of its crude oil imports, and the stability of the Strait of Hormuz is fundamental to Japan's energy security.
- Finance — In response to signs of crisis, volatility in the crude oil futures market has surged, and risk premiums have expanded.
- Politics — Since his re-inauguration in 2025, the Trump administration has pursued a "maximum pressure 2.0" policy against Iran.
To understand the current Strait of Hormuz crisis, it is necessary to grasp the structural context of US-Iran conflict that has accumulated over nearly half a century since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.
In 1979, the Islamic Revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis at the US Embassy in Tehran severed US-Iran relations. Since then, the two countries have repeatedly cycled through fundamental distrust and hostility, interspersed with superficial de-escalation (such as the 2015 JCPOA, or Iran nuclear deal). Particularly significant was the Trump administration's unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and its imposition of a "maximum pressure" policy. While this policy squeezed the Iranian economy, it also had the counterproductive effect of accelerating Iran's nuclear development. Iran's uranium enrichment level reached 60%, approaching the weapons-grade level of 90%.
When Trump was re-inaugurated as president in 2025, the informal balance of restraint during the Biden administration collapsed, and "maximum pressure 2.0" was initiated. This involved strengthened sanctions aimed at effectively halting Iranian crude oil exports, hints of targeted attacks on organizations linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and a re-strengthening of the US military presence in the Middle East. Iran, in response, countered by brandishing the "final card" of disrupting navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Let's confirm with numbers why the Strait of Hormuz is so crucial. Through this strait, merely 33 km wide, pass oil and natural gas from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar. This amounts to approximately 20 million barrels per day, or about 21% of the world's seaborne oil shipments. In addition, the majority of LNG exports from Qatar also transit this strait. In other words, a closure of the strait is a "global choke point" that would immediately ripple through not only energy markets but also global supply chains and financial markets.
Why "now"? Multiple structural factors are converging. First, the Trump administration's hardline stance against Iran has failed to achieve its objectives through sanctions alone and is escalating to military pressure. Second, economic crisis and social unrest within Iran threaten the regime's legitimacy, making a hardline foreign policy a tool for domestic governance. Third, the overall situation in the Middle East is destabilizing. The aftermath of the Israel-Hamas conflict, Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, and increased activity by Iran-backed militias in Syria and Iraq are all raising the overall level of regional tension.
Even more importantly, both the US and Iran are engaged in a game of chicken, drawing "red lines" while assuming the other will not cross them. Trump's 48-hour ultimatum and Iran's declaration of region-wide retaliation precisely indicate the risk of this game spiraling out of control. The risk of accidental escalation materialized during the 1988 downing of Iran Air Flight 655 and the 2020 assassination of General Soleimani. The current crisis carries an even higher level of tension than these historical precedents.
The implications for Japan are also extremely significant. Japan relies on the Middle East for approximately 88% of its crude oil imports, almost all of which pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The shock of the 2019 attack on Japan-linked tankers near the Strait of Hormuz is still fresh in memory. This crisis once again exposes the fundamental vulnerability of Japan's energy security policy.
The delta: By explicitly naming power plants as specific military targets and setting a 48-hour deadline, Trump has qualitatively transformed the US-Iran conflict from a "war of words" to a "concrete countdown to military confrontation." Iran's declaration of retaliation against power supply infrastructure for US military bases has, for the first time, explicitly raised the risk of the conflict expanding beyond bilateral bounds into an infrastructure war across the entire Middle East.
🔍 Reading Between the Lines — What the News Isn't Saying
Trump's 48-hour ultimatum is not, in fact, aimed at the destruction of Iranian power plants itself. The true objective is to force Iran back to the negotiating table by playing the military intimidation card, as the limits of "maximum pressure 2.0" against Iran become apparent. However, having made such a public declaration, Trump risks being labeled a "president who doesn't follow through" if Iran doesn't yield, thereby cornering himself. Iran, by declaring "region-wide retaliation," is employing a strategy to make Gulf states re-evaluate the "cost of hosting US military bases," thereby shaking the foundation of US presence in the Middle East. Both sides are playing a game centered on the "credibility of their threats" rather than actual military action, but the greatest concern is the risk of this game spiraling out of control.
NOW PATTERN
Spiral of Conflict × Power Overextension × Chain of Contagion
The US-Iran "spiral of conflict" has reached the stage of a military ultimatum, creating the risk that a chain of retaliation could "contagiously" spread into an infrastructure war across the entire Persian Gulf. The inability of both sides to back down is accelerating "power overextension."
Intersection of Dynamics
The three dynamics of "spiral of conflict," "power overextension," and "chain of contagion" form a dangerous complex that mutually reinforces itself. The spiral of conflict pushes both the US and Iran to the next escalation step, during which both fall into "power overextension" by overestimating their own capabilities and intentions. The extreme threats issued as a result of overextension (power plant attacks, region-wide retaliation) unleash the conflict from a bilateral framework, activating the "chain of contagion." The expanding damage caused by this contagion further stimulates nationalism and fear on both sides, accelerating the rotation of the "spiral of conflict." What is particularly dangerous about this triple self-reinforcing mechanism is its effect of blocking "exits." The more the spiral rotates, the higher the cost of concession for both sides (loss of face, domestic political repercussions); the deeper the overextension, the harder it is to retreat; and the wider the contagion spreads, the more actors become involved, complicating negotiations. Historically, escaping such a triple trap requires either the provision of a "ladder" by external mediators (in this case, China, Turkey, Oman, etc.) or the creation of a "face-saving compromise" acceptable to both sides. However, neither is easy in the current international environment. The only hope is the possibility that Gulf states, who would be most directly affected by the chain of contagion, might undertake mediation for their own survival, but this also presupposes that both the US and Iran are willing to accept mediation.
📚 History of Patterns
1987-1988: Tanker War (End of Iran-Iraq War)
The exchange of attacks on merchant vessels in the Persian Gulf escalated, leading the US to provide escort for Kuwaiti-flagged tankers. This developed into direct clashes between the US Navy and the Iranian Navy (Operation Praying Mantis).
Structural similarities with the present: The use of force around the Strait is prone to accidental escalation, carrying the risk that a limited military operation could develop into a full-scale conflict. Furthermore, the involvement of third-country vessels can expand international repercussions.
1990-1991: Gulf War (Iraq's Invasion of Kuwait)
Iraq's military action caused crude oil prices to surge (over $40 per barrel), putting recessionary pressure on the global economy. A US-led multinational coalition intervened militarily and achieved a swift victory, but the destabilization of the Middle East persisted long-term.
Structural similarities with the present: Military conflicts in the Middle East immediately ripple through the global economy via energy markets. While military victory may be possible in the short term, long-term commitment is required for regional stabilization.
2019: Tanker Attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and Damage to Japan-linked Vessels
As the US withdrew from the JCPOA and intensified its maximum pressure policy, multiple tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz. A shocking incident occurred when a Japan-linked tanker was hit during Prime Minister Abe's visit to Iran.
Structural similarities with the present: Intensified pressure through economic sanctions can provoke asymmetric retaliation from the cornered party. Furthermore, third countries attempting to remain neutral also face the risk of being drawn into the conflict.
2020: Assassination of General Soleimani and Exchange of Retaliation
The US assassinated Iran's General Soleimani in a drone strike. Iran retaliated with missile attacks on US military bases in Iraq. Both sides stated they "did not seek further escalation," and the crisis temporarily subsided.
Structural similarities with the present: Attacks on specific targets can trigger a chain of retaliation, but restraint can prevail if both sides leave room for an "exit." However, if targets expand to include infrastructure (civilian facilities), the mechanism of restraint weakens.
1962: Cuban Missile Crisis
The US and Soviet Union confronted each other on the brink of nuclear war, with ultimatums and a naval blockade (quarantine) imposed. The crisis was averted through compromise via clandestine diplomatic channels.
Structural similarities with the present: In ultimatum-style confrontations, negotiations through "back channels" separate from official channels are key to crisis avoidance. Establishing a mechanism for both sides to retreat while saving face is essential.
Patterns Revealed by History
The consistent patterns revealed by historical precedents are as follows. First, military tensions in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz immediately spread to global economic crises via energy markets. This contagion mechanism has been confirmed in the 1987-88 Tanker War, the 1990 Gulf War, and the 2019 tanker attacks. Second, the exchange of ultimatums and retaliation dramatically increases the risk of accidental escalation. The possibility of unintended clashes (e.g., downing of civilian aircraft, damage to neutral vessels) spiraling out of control always exists. Third, in past crises, clandestine diplomatic channels and third-party mediation held the key to averting disaster. The back channels of the Cuban Missile Crisis and the mutual restraint after the 2020 Soleimani crisis are examples. However, the current crisis also possesses elements that differ from the past. The explicit expansion of attack targets to civilian infrastructure like power plants, the declared scope of retaliation extending across the entire Middle East, and the weakening of international mediation mechanisms are new factors that make applying past lessons difficult.
🔮 Next Scenarios
After the 48-hour ultimatum expires, the US conducts a limited military demonstration (precision strikes on military facilities along the Iranian coast, or cyberattacks) but avoids a full-scale attack on power plants. Iran retaliates with symbolic missile attacks near US military-related facilities in the Middle East (intentionally avoiding direct hits) but refrains from attacking civilian infrastructure. Both sides temporarily enter a lull, having "saved face." During this time, informal talks mediated by Oman and Qatar proceed clandestinely. Crude oil prices temporarily rise to $100-120/barrel but settle back into the $90s within a few weeks due to strategic petroleum reserve releases and increased production from oil-producing nations. The Strait of Hormuz does not face a complete closure, but soaring insurance premiums and the use of alternative routes significantly increase shipping costs. The key to this base case scenario lies in whether both sides can maintain the fundamental incentive structure of "not wanting a full-scale war."
Implications for Investment/Action: Whether US military attacks remain "limited," Iranian retaliation is contained to a symbolic level, or signs of clandestine diplomatic channels emerge (e.g., movements of the Omani Foreign Minister or Qatari Emir).
Before the 48-hour deadline, clandestine diplomatic negotiations bear fruit, and the crisis resolves without military conflict. Specifically, through mediation by Oman or Qatar, Iran promises a "gradual restoration of freedom of navigation," and the US offers "temporary suspension of additional sanctions" as a condition. China also exerts pressure on Iran to exercise restraint (through hints of temporarily halting illicit purchases of Iranian crude oil). In this case, crude oil prices temporarily rise to the $90s before returning to the $80s. Financial market disruption also remains limited. In an even more optimistic scenario, this crisis could serve as an impetus for discussions on a new US-Iran negotiation framework (what might be called a "Hormuz Agreement"). Iranian President Pezeshkian is considered a relatively moderate figure, and if he can control domestic hardliners (especially the IRGC), a window for dialogue exists. However, the Trump administration has low incentive to engage in negotiations and is more likely to continue its hardline approach, claiming "pressure worked," thus limiting the probability of an optimistic scenario.
Implications for Investment/Action: Softening statements from Iran before the deadline, emergency diplomatic visits by Omani and Qatari leaders, active mediation efforts by China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or leaks from the US Department of Defense prioritizing a "diplomatic solution."
After the 48-hour deadline, the US actually attacks Iranian power plants, and Iran retaliates against US military-related infrastructure across the Middle East as declared, leading to full-scale escalation. Iran lays mines in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks tankers attempting to pass through the Strait with anti-ship missiles. The US Navy directly engages the Iranian Navy, with casualties on both sides. Hezbollah launches missile attacks on Israel, and the Houthis intensify their attacks in the Red Sea, expanding the conflict across the entire Middle East. Crude oil prices surge to $150-200 per barrel, and the global economy faces a stagflation crisis. Energy-importing nations, including Japan, fall into a severe supply crisis, and emergency energy rationing measures are considered. Financial markets decline sharply, and flight to safe-haven assets accelerates. The probability of this scenario is set at a relatively high 30%. This is because both sides have already explicitly named specific military targets (power plants, US military base infrastructure), and the justification for attack has been pre-established. Furthermore, the risk of accidental incidents (mis-fire, misidentification) triggering escalation cannot be ruled out.
Implications for Investment/Action: Commencement of large-scale US airstrikes, Iran's laying of mines in the Strait of Hormuz, infrastructure attacks in multiple Gulf states, a crude oil price surge of over $20 per day, or simultaneous attacks by Hezbollah and the Houthis.
Key Triggers to Watch
- Expiration of the 48-hour ultimatum (around March 25, 2026): Within 24-48 hours
- Whether the US military conducts attacks within Iranian territory: Within 1-3 days after the deadline
- Crude oil prices breaking $100/barrel: Within 1-2 weeks
- Convening of an emergency UN Security Council meeting and its outcome: Within 1 week
- Moves in mediation diplomacy by China, Oman, Qatar, etc.: 48 hours to 1 week
🔄 Tracking Loop
Next Trigger: Expiration of the 48-hour ultimatum (around March 25, 2026) — The US action after the deadline (whether to attack, extend the deadline, or shift diplomatically) will be the turning point determining all future developments.
Continuation of this Pattern: Tracking: Evolution of the US-Iran Strait of Hormuz Crisis — The next milestones are the ultimatum deadline (around March 25), the presence or absence of subsequent US military action, and the success or failure of mediation diplomacy.
🎯 Oracle Declaration
Prediction Question: Will the US military conduct military attacks against power plants or energy infrastructure within Iranian territory by April 30, 2026?
Judgment Deadline: 2026-04-30 | Judgment Criteria: YES if the US Department of Defense or multiple reliable international media outlets (Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirm and report US military attacks on power plants or energy infrastructure within Iranian territory. NO if attacks are limited to military facilities only.
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