Crypto & Web3

Taiwanese Legislator Proposes Including Bitcoin in Foreign Reserves to Executive Yuan

Nowpattern

10 5月 2026 — 4 min read

Will the Taiwan government (Executive Yuan or Central Bank) establish a formal review committee or task force on incorporating Bitcoin into foreign reserves by the end of June 2026?

67%

📅 Resolution: 2026-05-16 🎯 Brier: 0.19 (c) 🔗 All Predictions

What Happened

⚡ What Happened

A Taiwanese legislator submitted a report by the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) to the Premier of the Executive Yuan, requesting consideration of allocating a portion of the country's $602 billion foreign reserves to Bitcoin. The strategic use of digital assets is being discussed as a hedge against China's military threats and risks of over-reliance on the US dollar. However, this remains at the proposal stage, and actual policy implementation would require careful deliberation by the Executive Yuan and Central Bank.

Taiwan's $602 billion in foreign reserves ranks fifth globally, and any change in its management policy could impact international financial markets. Since El Salvador's adoption of Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, sporadic discussions about national-level BTC holdings have emerged in various countries, but no major economy has actually incorporated it into foreign reserves. The logic connecting Taiwan's unique geopolitical situation—the risk of forceful unification by China, exclusion from international organizations, and the possibility of SWIFT cutoff—with Bitcoin's "censorship resistance" carries a certain rationality. However, historically, the hurdle from an individual legislator's proposal to an actual change in central bank reserve assets is extremely high. Even in the United States, discussions on a strategic Bitcoin reserve have not led to actual reserve asset incorporation. This development should be read less as likely policy implementation and more as a structural signal that crypto-asset strategic discussions at the national level are spreading to East Asia.

🔍 The essence of this proposal lies not in Bitcoin adoption itself, but in making visible a "financial survival strategy" within Taiwan's security debate. The fact that the legislator used a report from BPI, a US-based think tank, suggests a political intent to position crypto-asset policy within the context of US-Taiwan relations. Taiwan's Central Bank is an extremely conservative institution, and the likelihood of incorporating highly volatile BTC into reserve assets is currently low. Rather, this development should be seen as an example of how the crypto industry's lobbying strategy has gained the persuasive context of "geopolitical risk" and is beginning to permeate policy discussions in various countries.

📰 Source: CoinPost

Causal Analysis

🧭 Why This Is Moving Now

Causal Map

Referenced Knowledge

entity:taiwanentity:bitcoindomain:crypto

entities=taiwan,bitcoin / domain=crypto

This topic falls under the `crypto` domain, where Nowpattern's average Brier score is 0.1818. Treat this as an area prone to overconfidence.

`taiwan`: If average confidence on MISS outcomes is high, there is an overconfidence tendency in predicting this entity's actions

`taiwan`: **Recommendation**: Consider adjusting probabilities 10-15% lower for new predictions involving this entity

`bitcoin`: If average confidence on MISS outcomes is high, there is an overconfidence tendency in predicting this entity's actions

Prediction

🔮 Next Scenarios

● Optimistic 10% ● Base 60% ● Pessimistic 30%

🟢 Optimistic 10% The Taiwan government establishes a formal review committee and begins a trial BTC allocation of approximately 0.1–1% of foreign reserves within 2026. Ripple effects spread to other Asian nations.

🔵 Base 60% The Executive Yuan receives the proposal but takes no concrete action, remaining at the research and discussion stage. It provides some tailwind for crypto-asset regulatory framework discussions.

🔴 Pessimistic 30% The Central Bank and financial authorities clearly express negative views, causing the discussion to wind down early. If it coincides with a BTC price decline, the proposal itself becomes a political liability.

🎯 Incentive Map

Player	True Incentive	Underlying Weakness	Predicted Action
Proposing Legislator	Gaining political support from the crypto-asset community and branding as a forward-thinking policy advocate	A desire for attention and a tendency to prioritize newsworthiness over feasibility	Maximizes media exposure while focusing on sparking debate rather than actual legislation. Will claim credit for "raising the issue" even without tangible results.
Taiwan Central Bank	Maintaining the safety and liquidity of foreign reserves and preserving international credibility	Conservative organizational culture and strong resistance to change. A structural lack of incentive to take on failure risk	Formally acknowledges the proposal as "worth considering" while substantively deferring action. Maintains a cautious stance citing technical challenges and volatility.
Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI)	Increasing national-level BTC adoption cases to enhance legitimacy and market value for the entire industry	Conflict of interest—since BTC price appreciation is directly tied to the organization's raison d'être, risk assessments are structurally biased toward optimism	Leverages Taiwan's case as a success model for outreach to other countries. Promotes even the proposal stage as "consideration has begun" to build industry narratives.

⚠️ Pre-Mortem — Conditions Under Which This Prediction Fails

A scenario where the US formally implements a strategic Bitcoin reserve and Taiwan rapidly follows suit as an ally. Acceleration driven by external pressure is difficult to predict from a legislator's proposal alone.
A structural risk where military tensions in the Taiwan Strait escalate sharply, making the consideration of non-traditional assets an urgent priority as a financial survival strategy. This is easily overlooked under peacetime assumptions.
The possibility of over-correcting in the opposite direction against an optimistic bias toward crypto assets—where BTC supporters tend to overestimate the probability of policy adoption—resulting in an excessive lean toward NO.

Fear-Setting / When this prediction fails

This probability fails if the US formally announces a strategic Bitcoin reserve in Q2 2026, triggering allied nations including Taiwan to fast-track similar initiatives.
This probability fails if a major cross-strait military incident occurs before June 2026, forcing Taiwan to urgently diversify reserves away from traditional assets vulnerable to sanctions or freezes.
This probability fails if Taiwan's ruling party adopts crypto-friendly policies as an election strategy, accelerating the committee formation timeline beyond normal bureaucratic pace.

🎯 Resolution Criteria

HIT condition: HIT if the Taiwan government does not establish a formal review committee or task force on incorporating Bitcoin into foreign reserves by the end of June 2026

Resolution date: 2026-05-16

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Deepening of Russian-Iranian Military Cooperation — “Double-front pressure” structure

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