Trump Tariffs One Year On: The True Nature of the Bitcoin Market as Seen by Professionals
⚡ What Happened
One year after the Trump tariffs were imposed, tariff policies have changed, but the trade deficit has expanded, and uncertainty has become normalized. In this situation, professional investors are focusing on how they perceive the true nature of the Bitcoin market and its role as a hedge against the existing financial system. Amid rising geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty, Bitcoin's valuation and market stability will be questioned anew.
April 2, 2025, marks one year since the Trump tariffs were imposed. Even after the U.S. Supreme Court's nullification ruling, policies have shifted, and the trade deficit has expanded. The protectionist tariff policies under the Trump administration significantly impacted international trade and prompted the reorganization of global supply chains. While the Supreme Court's ruling brought temporary relief, it has not led to a fundamental resolution of trade friction. In a global economy where uncertainty is the norm, trust in fiat currencies and traditional financial systems is beginning to waver. In this context, it is crucial that Bitcoin has established itself as "digital gold" and professional investors are re-evaluating its intrinsic value. As long as geopolitical tensions and economic turmoil persist, interest in Bitcoin will continue to grow.
🔍 While reports parallel the failure of tariff policies with growing interest in Bitcoin, the essence lies in the contrast between "state intervention" and "decentralization." The instability of government economic policies and structural trade issues that even the Supreme Court cannot overturn are accelerating the flight to non-state assets like Bitcoin. The professional perspective suggests an insider movement to decipher this macroscopic structural change and seek asset preservation strategies in an era where conventional financial wisdom no longer applies. The uncertainty of the regulatory environment can also be read as an opportunity to test Bitcoin's resilience.
📰 Source: CRYPTO TIMES
🧭 Why is This Moving Now?
entities=trump,bitcoin / dynamics=tariff-escalation / domain=crypto
🔮 Next Scenarios
🎯 Incentive Map
| Player | True Incentive | Deep Weakness | Predicted Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump Camp (U.S. Government) | Re-election through appealing to supporters and protecting domestic industries. | Obsession with short-term results and disregard for long-term international cooperation. | Likely to re-introduce aggressive tariff policies to reduce the trade deficit. |
| Institutional Investors (Professional Investors) | Asset preservation and maximization of returns in a highly uncertain market environment. | Excessive adherence to market trends and regulatory developments, pursuit of short-term profits. | Incorporate Bitcoin, which has low correlation with traditional assets, into their portfolios, prioritizing liquidity. |
| Bitcoin Developers/Community | Maintain Bitcoin's decentralization and robustness, expand its adoption. | Delays in addressing internal conflicts and technical challenges, lack of dialogue with regulatory authorities. | Strive to improve scalability and security, maintaining network stability. |
⚠️ Premortem — Conditions under which this prediction might fail
- U.S. economic policy stabilizes dramatically, and international trade friction resolves, leading to a sharp decline in demand for Bitcoin as a hedge against uncertainty.
- Major countries cooperate to introduce strict regulations on the Bitcoin market, suppressing speculative capital inflows and causing the overall market to cool down.
- Technical vulnerabilities or large-scale security breaches occur, fundamentally shaking trust in Bitcoin and causing investors to abandon it.
Hit Condition: HIT if Bitcoin's annual volatility index (e.g., BVOL24h) does not remain 20% or more below its average over the past year for more than 30 days by the end of June 2026.
Judgment Date: 2026-06-30