U.S.-China Military Tensions in the South China
In early 2026, military exercises by the US and Chinese forces in the South China Sea are overlapping in time and space, raising the risk of accidental conflict to its highest level since the Cold War. If allies, including Japan, become involved, the security order of the Indo-Pacific will be fundamentally shaken.
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- • From January to March 2026, the US Navy is conducting "Freedom of Navigation Operations" (FONOPs) in the South China Sea at an unprecedented pace of three times per month
- • The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy conducted large-scale live-fire exercises across the South China Sea in February 2026, imposing temporary navigation restrictions on civilian aviation and shipping
- • The USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group has maintained a continuous presence in the South China Sea since January 2026, continuing rotational deployments with the Philippine Sea
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The cycle in which both the US and China intensify their military activities as "defensive" responses to the other's military actions is creating an uncontrollable spiral of conflict. Simultaneously, the expansion of alliance networks is increasing the risk of unintended involvement.
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• Base case 55% — Resumption of US-China military high-level dialogue, activation of crisis management hotline, stabilization of Chinese exercise frequency to previous year's levels, movement on escalation-control legislation in US Congress
• Bull case 15% — Announcement of a surprise US-China summit, unilateral reduction of Chinese exercises in the South China Sea, breakthrough progress in ASEAN-led COC negotiations, signs of comprehensive settlement in US-China trade talks
• Bear case 30% — Escalation of force at Second Thomas Shoal
